Super 14 Semis

Two mouth-watering clashes are not too many hours away - one sleep as a kid on Xmas Eve would say, and to be honest I can't wait to see how these two semis pan out. Not because I have money riding on them; while on the balance of probabilities the two home sides should get home, the one constant in sport are the surprises that get thrown up - so don't be surprised if the Blues and Crusaders are on the plane to Christchurch come Monday to play another game.

Just don't bet on it. The press I've been reading are the Saffers are more nervous about the Sharks advancing than the Bulls, even though they are at sub-$1.50 compared to the Bulls $1.75-ish for winning in the weekend. Honestly, I can't see what they're worried about. The Blues looked good last week because (a) the Force played poorly, and (b) McAlister made a large difference to the backline functioning, and he ain't there. With the caveat that the referee is Mr S. Dickinson and he has been known in the past to fk up an otherwise promising game of rugby, as long as the Sharks handle the nerves and don't partake in too many brain explosions (Francois Steyn is a good candidate for one or two), the game is theirs for the taking.

And so we move onto the Bulls v Crusaders. The way the Bulls have been playing you would think they should walk into the final but if there is one team that can pull off a semifinal visit to Loftus with a win, it would be the red and blacks. Except for one thing - their lineout has been at times as dysfunctional as bowel movements after a hot curry. There is the possibility that Corey Flynn will be named the Bulls' man of the match if he has one of his off nights.

Yes, the Crusaders have been famed in the past for winning games without not too much pill but that mojo seems to have worn off if you view the evidence from the last two weeks. Therein lies the problem - they need ball, they won't get it from lineout time so they will be reliant on turnovers from breakdowns and Bulls' mistakes to get a reasonable share of possession. Rather ironic - we bang on here in NZ about how Saffer teams feed off opposition mistakes to be effective yet that is what the Crusaders will be relying on (plus McCaw at the breakdown) to have a shot in this game.

This game is in the Bulls' hands - turn up and play the way they have and they should win. But this is sport - anything can happen.

Betting-wise there's not much on offer; the Sharks and Bulls are at skinny odds at the NZ TAB while I don't think backing the NZ teams would be the smartest move in the world. Personally I think these games are a sit and watch, but if you have $10 burning a hole in your wallet the bet to me is the Bulls at the handicap - it's only 3.5 points which I think if they do turn up to play they'll cover quite easily.

Have a good weekend.

Market Madness

Sorry for the lack of a post yesterday - a morning spent at the Frankin Primary Schools Orienteering Championships helping 600 kids have a morning out in the sunshine followed by some personal issues meant updating the blog was down the list of priorities.

But I've been spending most of my waking hours thinking about the next 2 weeks of the Super 14 as the betting markets are showing some of the most unusual behaviour I've seen in a very long time.

Basically many bookmakers have under-reacted to the surprise location of one of the semi-finals - that being Pretoria. Not the NZ TAB, who opened up on Monday with what I thought were reasonably sensible prices in both the winner's market and for the two semi-final games, being:

Winner's Market

Bulls $2.75
Sharks $2.75 (since amended to $2.90)
Crusaders $3.50 (since amended to $3.25)
Blues $7.50

Semi Finals

Bulls $1.60 Crusaders $2.25
Sharks $1.45 Blues $2.60 (now $1.40 - $2.80)

However a troll of the internet shows others taking a different stance - e.g. Centrebet in Australia had (past tense, a check of their prices and they seem to have disappeared) the Crusaders and Bulls joint favourite to win the competition at $2.85 while William Hill (UK) really don't rate the Bulls at $3.75.

If you do the maths, the prices in the winner's market and for the individual games are seriously out-of sync; for example on Betfair the Crusaders are $3.30 to win S14 and $2.30 to beat the Bulls. That is saying if the Crusaders win their semi-final they will be $1.43 to win the final. Oh really? Maybe if they're playing the Blues at Jade but certainly not if they're playing the Sharks at Durban. And which of those scenarios is the more likely of the two?

The discrepancies can be partly explained by some bookmakers will have some liability on the Crusaders winning the competiton, thus keeping the price short. But the puzzling thing is the bookmaker most likely to be in the shit if the Crusaders win the S14 - the NZ TAB - are the ones offering the highest price! (on both the winner's market and for the semi-final games)

To cut a long story short, there is some unbelievable value on the Bulls and Sharks to either win the S14 or win their semi-final - unfortunately for NZ readers not at the local TAB - and as these situations don't arise very often I'm like a kid in a lolly shop. Get on!!!

Super 14 Week 14

The final round sees some juicy match-ups with semifinal implications, none more so than the games tonight ...

CRUSADERS ($1.29) v CHIEFS ($4.60) (NZTAB $1.20 - $4.20)

Forget the Chiefs' insipid display last week. Rewind back to their first-half performances against the Blues and Sharks to get a taste of what you'll see - a titanic forward battle full of bone-crunching hits that'll keep the blood-thirsty happy.

I love it when the media start mentioning records - so the Crusaders haven't lost at Jade Stadium for 26 matches. Good - they're due for one then :-). Yes, my water is telling me the Chiefs have a good sniff of an upset here - certainly they are overpriced but perhaps the best bet is backing them with the points start. The line is at 10.5; same as Crusaders/Hurricanes which the Canes covered by half a point and given the Chiefs haven't lost by more than 7 points all year I feel it's a comfortable bet if you can get close to evens (which you can't at the TAB - it's $1.87). Factor in there may be dew around after a fine day down in ChCh and the Chiefs +10.5 will do me. I may even have a nibble at the match odds.

If, unlike me, you're more bullish about the Crusaders chances, the $2.70 for winning by 12 and under ($2.96 on Betfair) seems a helluva lot more playable than the skinny match odds.

FORCE ($2.52) v BLUES ($1.66) (NZTAB $2.25 - $1.60)

Of the 84 matches so far, 20 have involved the home team starting as the underdog. They've won 8 of them, which is less than 50%, but at average odds of $3.40. If you look at underdog teams starting at odds of $2-$3, they're 5 out of 10.

While the sample size is too small to draw conclusions, it does possibly suggest the bookmakers overvalue the ability of a better away team to get past a (slightly?) inferior home team. So in this case, especially given the way the Blues have been travelling, I wouldn't touch $1.66 for the Blues with a barge pole. So it becomes a question of whether to back the Force and that is today's job for the subconcious (i.e. I haven't decided yet). The handicap is 4.5 and unplayable.

HIGHLANDERS ($2.56) v BRUMBIES ($1.68) (NZTAB $2.35 - $1.55)

I'm waiting for the results of the previous two games before doing anything here - the Brumbies need both the Chiefs and Blues to lose to have any hope of making the semis. If one of them win, they're pretty much gone and if it turns out to be a meaningless game I'd expect the Highlanders to be far more interested as they farewell Anton and Carl.

Even without considering the scenarios, it's another case where the home team doesn't deserve to be a $2.50 underdog and as I've stated before I always think the Highlanders are overpriced by the bookmakers. I'd price this game close to evens, so even the $2.35 at the TAB I'd take.

HURRICANES ($1.35) v WARATAHS ($4.10) (NZTAB $1.30 - $3.30)

Another farewell party and a game that holds no interest, although I guess if the Tahs look back to last year they might turn up motivated. I'm staying out of it.

LIONS ($1.82) v CHEETAHS ($2.22) (NZTAB $1.65 - $2.15)
STORMERS ($3.40) v SHARKS ($1.46) (NZTAB $2.60 - $1.45)
BULLS ($1.06) v REDS ($14.50) (NZTAB $1.03 - $10)

The three games in South Africa hold little appeal from a betting point of view (also from a staying up all night and watching point of view) - the prices aren't too much different from what I'd have so I'll pass on all three.

Super 14 Week 13

With the caveat that I'm still distracted by cricket in the Caribbean, here's a quick rundown on this weekend's matches (Betfair prices in brackets):

HURRICANES ($1.35) v HIGHLANDERS ($3.90)

Originally was going to leave this alone but I think the Speights boys are a little over-priced. While the Canes have been a little more consistent of late, they've put Weepu back to half (orders from above?) when his play at 10 has been better than any of the originally selected first-fives. I don't think there's a huge amount of difference between the sides - $3.90 tempts me in and I'll also take the points start at 9.5

WARATAHS ($3.00) v CHIEFS ($1.49)

I'll probably be having one of my bigger bets this season - the handicap is 6.5 on Betfair and if I can get evens on the Chiefs winning by 7 or more I'm unloading Fort Knox onto it. A little doubt if the Chiefs can reproduce their form away from home but we have one team still in the playoff race looking for 4 tries against a side already planning for Mad Monday. This could get ugly.

FORCE ($1.32) v CHEETAHS ($4.40)

The Cheetahs were diabolical last week and perhaps another side with half an eye on the end of the season. A game I'm leaving alone.

BULLS ($1.55) v BLUES ($2.84)

Thanks to the cricket, I didn't see either side play last week but the wheels look to have fallen off the Blues carriage. The amount of team changes week to week can't be helping either. Pretoria is not the fortress it used to be but I'm reluctant to back the Blues, although the price is getting tempting. Still thinking ....

One thing to note is if the Blues do lose and kiss their home semi goodbye, empty your bank account onto the Crusaders to win the whole shebang - no side will be able to travel from SAF after a semifinal win and back up at Jade Stadium a week later.

BRUMBIES ($3.65) v CRUSADERS ($1.37)

I think this game will be a lot closer than most people expect, but the points start is not enough to get me involved. The Brumbies are allowing the fewest points of any side in the comp, but have problems themselves scoring tries and kicking goals. Sit and watch.

AND THE OTHER TWO ...

With the cricket final on at the same time I'll have no interest in the Sharks and Stormers thrashing the Lions and Reds respectively.

Super 14 Week 12

Only another a week or so of cricket madness to go, and then life can return to normal. So a quick look at this weekend's matches - there are some interesting ones (Betfair prices in brackets):

Hurricanes (6.6) v Crusaders (1.2): OK the Crusaders will probably win but I've seen worse $6.60 outsiders. Seduced by the price. If you're not that brave, take the Canes with the handicap - a beautiful fine day in NZ today which means we should have a few droplets of dew tonight, or who knows, even fog :-) Yes yes I know betting on the Jekyll and Hyde team is risky but that's the name of the game.

Brumbies (1.32) v Force (4.3): Leaving this alone. Only $4.30 for a team that's leaked 117 points in the last two weeks? No thanks.

Reds (2.28) v Cheetahs (1.83): I think the Reds are gone - last week was their last chance to salvage something from the season. Dropping Croft shows even the coach has lost the plot. On the other side, the Cheetahs have been OK in their losses to the Blues and the Canes so while the price is borderline (I wouldn't take anything below $1.80), I'm putting some Rand on the Saffers.

Chiefs (1.86) v Sharks (2.18): A bloody interesting game - both rugby-wise and betting-wise. And while the wise would probably leave it alone, if the Sharks drift out past $2.20 I'll go swimming with the sea dwellers.

Tahs (1.83) v Highlanders (2.28): Another game that doesn't exactly fall into the predictable category; like the previous one, games that I find hard to call and feel the prices should be roughly even I'll look to back the outsiders at anything above $2.20. So in we go...

Lions (4.1) v Bulls (1.37): No bet - am tempted to back the home team at 4's (they have been good to me this year) but there is one problem - I can't see them winning.

Stormers (3.55) v Blues (1.4): As I said preseason, the Blues perform poorly in the rain, so I'm prepared to forgive last week's performance and with Cape Town's weather forecast looking OK, it's a sit and watch.

Super 14 Week 11

Partly because of the cricket (great call on the Sri Lanka game ... NOT), and partly because my interest is waning as we meander to the inevitable Blues-Crusaders final, I can't be arsed doing a full preview this week.

To be honest, betting opportunities are thin on the ground - for the last two weeks every favourite on the tote has won and I won't be surprised if it happens again this weekend. The "longest" priced favourite this weekend is the Bulls at $1.40 against the Stormers and all bar the Crusaders are playing at home.

If you put on a pair of rose-tinted spectacles, you could make a quarter of a case for the Reds, or the Force, maybe even the Cheetahs, Sharks perhaps? ..... Nah, it's a weekend for keeping your money in the pocket. Keep an eye on the Wellington weather, the Cheetahs may be worth backing with the points start if it continues to be horrible, likewise the Force tomorrow.

Some people don't like betting at the beginning of a season as it's unpredictable -I'm the opposite, I don't like betting at the end of the season as the form is too exposed. Couple that with widening winning margins (making backing the underdogs with the points start a little more risky) and I'm winding activity down.

I learnt my lesson last week - out of boredom I backed the Force with the points start against the Crusaders. Such brilliance on my part. So the wallet stays shut this weekend, and a chance to catch up on some much needed sleep.

Super 14 Week 9 Preview

A quick look at this weekend’s matches …

HIGHLANDERS v CHEETAHS

The Cheetahs, apart from a close game against the Chiefs, were hammered on their road trip last year so it will be interesting to see how they handle the trip to Invercargill. I think the prices are about right – no bet.

MP: High 1.47 Cheet 3.33 Draw 50
TAB: High 1.50 Cheet 2.50
BF: High 1.55 Cheet 2.90 Draw 29

FORCE v SHARKS

I had earmarked this as a game the Sharks could drop but thanks to last weekend’s loss, I’m not getting the price I want. I believe it won’t be a high-scoring affair (both defences seem solid) and am expecting a close battle.

MP: Forc 1.82 Shks 2.41 Draw 29
TAB: Forc 1.75 Shks 2.00
BF: Forc 1.85 Shks 2.16 Draw 27

HURRICANES v BULLS

Two of the more inconsistent sides play each other. Anyone who bets on this game needs a straitjacket.

MP: Cane 1.85 Bull 2.33 Draw 33
TAB: Cane 1.75 Bull 2.00
BF: Cane 1.84 Bull 2.06 Draw 26

CHIEFS v BLUES

Traditionally a “bogey” side for the Blues, you’d think the Blues are travelling too well (and the Chiefs too mediocre) for them to win with some comfort. Still, at the prices I think the Chiefs are worth a small wager.

MP: Chief 3.13 Blue 1.52 Draw 50
TAB: Chief 4.00 Blue 1.22
BF: Chief 3.85 Blue 1.35 Draw 30

WARATAHS v CRUSADERS

Next.

MP: Tahs 5.00 Saders 1.27 Draw 80
TAB: Tahs 6.00 Saders 1.11
BF: Tahs 6.00 Saders 1.17 Draw 40

LIONS v BRUMBIES

Last but not least the sugar daddy Lions take on last week’s surprise packet, the Mortlock-less Brumbies. Yet again I’ll find myself plonking some money on the pussies as the Bookmakers continue to think this is 2006, not 2007. They should be favourites at home – where they are 4 and 1 so far this year.

MP: Lion 1.60 Brum 2.86 Draw 40
TAB: Lion 2.00 Brum 1.75
BF: Lion 2.08 Brum 1.98 Draw 24

S14 Week 8

A significant week with plenty of focus on the returning All Blacks, and for me what affect their return would have on betting markets. I think there’s money to be made this weekend, so here goes:

BLUES v WARATAHS

Normally when sides approach $8 in head-to-head markets, I start to get interested. But not tonight. If the Blues don’t win this by plenty then they would have performed poorly. When teams string together a few mediocre performances in a row (as the Waratahs have done), it’s not a good look – lack of confidence / problems behind the scenes? Who knows, and as they’re Australians, who cares. In fact, I’m seriously contemplating backing the Blues with the points start (17.5 on Betfair) – something I usually avoid with such a large number, but I can’t see how the Tahs can come within 20 points.

MP: Blues $1.16 Tahs $8 Draw $80
NZ TAB: Blues $1.08 Tahs $7
Betfair: Blues $1.12 Tahs $9.40 Draw $55

HIGHLANDERS v BULLS

Hardest game of the weekend to pick – I’m sitting it out although the Highlanders are perhaps a little short on the tote.

MP: High $1.82 Bull $2.35 Draw $40
TAB: High $1.65 Bull $2.20 (opened 1.70 / 2.10)
BF: High $1.68 Bull $2.44 Draw $28

CRUSADERS v STORMERS

Richie, Dan and Co should be strong enough to beat the visitors, but personally I will be surprised if it’s a thrashing. Thus, the points start of 20.5 on Betfair is where I’ll be plonking some dough – hopefully the Stormers have learnt from the Bulls how NOT to play in ChCh and will do enough to keep within 20 points.

MP: Saders $1.16 Storm $8 Draw $80
TAB: Saders $1.06 Storm $8
BF: Saders $ 1.08 Storm $14 Draw $55

REDS v CHIEFS

Some weird prices around the traps for this one – the NZ TAB opened up on Monday with the Reds at $3.30, while some overseas bookies had them $4.50+. While everyone bar the most one-eyed supporters in Brisbane expect the Chiefs to win, the Reds have been a lot better at home and at least the number of beds in the MASH tent hasn’t increased during the week. Perhaps looking through rose-tinted glasses, but I’m not expecting a thrashing. No bet at the prices.

MP: Reds $3.47 Chief $1.43 Draw $50
TAB: Reds $3.75 Chief $1.25 (opened 3.30 / 1.30)
BF: Reds $4.10 Chief $4.10 Draw $29

SHARKS v BRUMBIES

Prices look about right – anything else apart from a comfortable home win will be a surprise.

MP: Shark $1.33 Brumb $4.35 Draw $50
TAB: Shark $1.25 Brumb $3.50 (opened 1.28 / 3.50)
BF: Shark $1.30 Brumb $4.20 Draw $26

LIONS v HURRICANES

Two thrashings on the road in NZ for the Lions and the Canes get their AB’s back. One-way traffic right? I’m not so sure – now that the Lions are back home, I think this game will be reasonably close and at the prices worth a tickle.

MP: Lion $2.41 Canes $1.79 Draw $40
TAB: Lion $2.85 Canes $1.40 (opened 2.50 / 1.50)
BF: Lion $2.92 Canes $1.55 Draw $28

S14 Injury List Week 8

BLUES – 1 Taumoepeau (calf), 11 Tuitavake (hamstring)
CHIEFS - 4 Gibbes (calf, Week 9+), 5 Robinson (calf, Week 10+), 6 Bates (ankle, doubtful), 13 Kahui (shoulder, Week 10+), 15 Anesi (neck - season), 15 Muliaina (foot - season), 20 Nutbrown (elbow - season)
HURRICANES - 17 Fairbrother (shoulder - season), 21 Nonu (shin, Week 9)
CRUSADERS - none
HIGHLANDERS – 21 Hore (ribs), 22 Zampach (broken foot), 22 Clare (broken leg)
WARATAHS - 4 Kanaar (knee - season), 5 Vickerman (knee - season?), 7 Waugh (ankle – season)
BRUMBIES – 4 Campbell (stress fracture foot, Week 12), 6 Heenan (off season surgery - return unknown), 10 Larkham (chest, doubtful), 12 Fairbanks (head knock doubtful), 13 Mortlock (broken hand - season), 14 Rathbone (foot doubtful), 16 Palavi (neck - retired), 21 Carraro (broken hand)
REDS - 1 Holmes (shoulder - season), 2 Hardman (broken hand), 3 Blake (ankle – season), 5 McMeniman (ankle - Week 10), 9 Cordingley (foot surgery, Week ?), 10 Barnes, 12 Andrew Brown (punctured lung, Week ?), 14 Veratau (returned last week), 15 Latham (knee - season), 15 Schifcofske (hand, Week 10 or possible this week), 16 Moore (returned last week), 17 Coutts (shoulder - season), 17 Warren (neck), 17 Mathieson (neck), 19 McVerry (ankle), 19 AJ Gilbert (shoulder), 20 Genia (hip)
FORCE (BYE) - 3 Takiari, 6 Pusey (ankle), 14 Staniforth
BULLS - 12 Olivier (knee, Week 9), 13 JP Nel (suspended, Week 11), 15 Roets (knee, Week 11), 16 Ralepelle (knee – season), 17 Gerber, 17b Bands (calf, Week 11), 18 Dlulane (neck - season), 19 Spies (knee, Week 11)
CHEETAHS (BYE) – 2 Strauss (shoulder - season), 4 Duncan (ankle, returned last week), 4 Nel (knee, Week 12), 5 Pieterse (broken foot - season), 12 Goodes (off season surgery, not fit), 15 Fortuin (returned last week), 17 CJ Van der Linde (calf, probable season)
LIONS - 3 McKenzie (return unknown), 4 Grobler (shoulder possible return), 14 Willemse (return unknown), 15 Rose (shoulder - season)
SHARKS – 5 Muller (neck, doubtful), 15 Montgomery (thigh, Week 9), 20 Mathie (?)
STORMERS – 3 Andrews (fractured nose), 8 Van Niekerk (knee - Week 10), 11 Jantjes, 11 Uys, 15 Russell (doubtful), 16 Liebenburg (broken hand), 22 Seconds

Halftime report Pt 2

HIGHLANDERS 3-3 16pts (pre-season prediction 4-9 bottom 3)

Every man and his dog north of Dunedin under-rate the Highlanders and while I usually don’t fall into this trap I thought with their home-grown talent this year they would fail to fire. To give them credit, they are making the most of their limited playing roster and while semifinalists still seems a touch unrealistic, don’t write them off completely. They still have five home games left, admittedly a few of them against tough opponents, and they could/should win more than they lose from here on in.

One thing I do know, the TAB never rate them (or they never get money from the punting public on them) and are always a team to look out for when the prices come out on Mondays.

LIONS 4-3 16pts (4-9 and not the wooden spoon)

Yep, I thought they’d cause a few upsets this year although the last two weeks may indicate they’ve done their dash. Now back home they might win a couple more and finish mid-table which is higher than 99% of us thought.

BRUMBIES 3-4 14pts (10-3 home semi)

Now where’s that humble pie again? I got one thing right; they will be at home for the semis – just watching on TV rather than on the paddock. Upon reflection, I don’t think I was that out with my thoughts – rewind back to Week 1 and they were the most impressive out of the blocks, but a couple of last-minute losses, injuries to key players and poor goal-kicking has really cost them. Like Mortlock, their season is gone although ironically once they’re out of the hunt of the playoffs (which should be this weekend), they may start to play better and beat a few teams higher up the ladder when back at home.

CANES 3-4 14pts (6-7 mid-table)

I think they have one loss too many before the cavalry arrive this weekend to make the playoffs. It must be frustrating being a Wellingtonian – winning the important games early on and then stuffing it up against the Stormers and Force. They are (well, were) certainly a team to avoid betting-wise as you’d never know what team would turn up. There is a small chance they can make a run for the semis but they have to beat the Crusaders in Christchurch. Good luck.

STORMERS 3-4 14pts (6-7 mid-table)

With a couple of wins on their road trip, a team to keep half an eye on – a bit like the Highlanders in that you don’t think they have the team to go anywhere, but once back home they could make a run for it like the Sharks did last year.

CHIEFS 1-1-4 12pts (9-4 possible semifinalists)

Oops. Next.

TAHS 1-1-4 8pts (8-5 missing the semis)

The wheels have really fallen off this year, and their run-in sees them play all 5 NZ teams and two niggly Oz derbies (Brumbies, Reds). Blues this weekend; Crusaders the next – a friendly word of advice for rugby-loving Sydneysiders. Consider moving city, even country – it’s about to get very, very ugly.

REDS 1-6 6pts (3-10 bottom 3)

If they weren’t Aussies I’d almost feel sorry for them with the horrible run of injuries they’ve had. Send them the wooden spoon now, although if they can beat the Tahs in Sydney they have half a chance of shipping it down south.

SUMMARY

It’s pretty hard to see how the Blues, Sharks and Crusaders will miss the playoffs, which leaves one spot open – who will fill it?

Personally I make the Bulls favourites to get there, ahead of the Highlanders and Force, with the Canes and Stormers not completely out of it. Games between these five teams, starting with the Highlanders v Bulls this weekend, become rather significant.

However it’s all immaterial. The Blues will have a home semi, a home final, and a victory parade down Queen St. :-)

Super 14 Wrap

Pass around the oranges – its halftime. 7 weeks down, 7 to go and let’s have a bit of fun at my expense by dredging out those pre-season predictions and updating them. So without further ado, in current table order:

SHARKS 6-0 25pts (pre-season prediction 6-7 mid-table)

Yes, well. First slice of humble pie although I’m still not convinced the Sharks are genuine title contenders and they could fall down the ladder on their road trip. But it would be a major surprise to see them fall out of the top 4 completely, so that’s one playoff spot taken. Will be interesting to see if they can secure a home semi-final, which may not be that imposing for whomever the opposition are as the heat and humidity will not be such a big factor in May. On the other hand, I have a sneaky feeling we’ve yet to see them play at their best, so for me the jury is still out until they’re on the road.

BLUES 5-1 23pts (10-3 home semi)

Thankfully I got one right. They’ve performed as I expected they would and they’ll finish 1 or 2 and get a home semi, although they’ll lose a couple of games between now and then. But don’t panic Jafas, the Super 14 trophy is coming home to its rightful resting place.

FORCE 4-1-2 21pts (5-8)

Bashing up on a 14-man Reds team with 14 injuries does not make the Force a title contender. Hopefully they’re enjoying their lofty position in the ladder, as after the bye they have the Sharks at home, then the Crusaders, Chiefs and Brumbies away. Not to mention the Blues in the last round. Mid-table with more than 5 wins yes, semi-finalists no.

BULLS 4-3 18pts (9-4 losing semifinalists)

Fark this team p!sses me off at times. A two year-old baby could have implemented their game plan better against the Crusaders last weekend. And reminds me of a similar totally inept performance against the Blues last year.

Which is their problem. One of the better forward packs (if not exactly mobile), a world-class halfback, decent first-five – a simple game plan designed to their strengths would beat just about anybody. As they showed against the Brumbies.

So why play loose allowing turnovers and kick the ball down the throats of the best counter-attacking team around? The Bulls seriously lack intelligence at times, and until they grow a few more brain cells will never win a Super 14 title, despite having the playing roster to do so. They’ll possibly sneak into the playoffs in fourth spot, but that’s the end of the road.

CRUSADERS 3-3 17pts (8-5 somewhere from 3rd to 6th)

The Crusaders are where I thought they’d be, but their playoff chances are significantly enhanced by bonus points and the inconsistencies shown by other teams. I’ll have to retract my earlier statement they’ll miss the semis – they’ll make it but will have to win the title the hard way away from hone. Difficult, but not impossible.

CHEETAHS 3-1-3 17pts (3-10 bottom 3)

They’re about to embark on their road trip and will drop down the ladder faster than someone swimming with concrete boots. Maybe not bottom 3, but not far off it.

(to be continued…)

Super 14 Week 7 Preview

Another unappetising round of matches from a betting point of view, with all bar one involving strong home favourites that I find around the right price. So short and sweet:

CHIEFS v LIONS

May not be the cakewalk the prices suggest, but the Chiefs should have a decided advantage once past first phase. Can't see past a Chiefs win, but if it's tight and boring the Lions do have a sniff.

MP: Chiefs $1.33 Lions $4.35 Draw $50
TAB: Chiefs $1.28 Lions $3.50
BF: Chiefs $1.33 Lions $4.10 Draw $28

FORCE v REDS

The Force has drifted with the news Henjak and Giteau are out, which is an over-reaction. It conveniently overlooks on the other side 13 squad members are in the MASH tent, and they'll miss Barnes just as much as the Force will miss Giteau. So long as Andrew Walker is kept in check, the home side should romp in.

MP: Force $1.41 Reds $3.70 Draw $50
TAB: Force $1.40 Reds $2.85 (opened 1.28 / 3.50)
BF: Force $1.45 Reds $3.30 Draw $26

CRUSADERS v BULLS

Fark the Bulls p!ss me off sometimes. WTF is Matfield doing on the bench? The Bulls could do everyone (including themselves) a big favour by giving this game 100% as a loss here put the Saders in danger of missing the playoffs. No matter what noises are made to the contrary, it smacks of we'll target the other 2 games in NZ to win and take what comes with this one.

At times the Bulls pack looked disinterested against the Tahs and in some ways their win last week was flattering - based on moments of individual brilliance and an inept opposition. I hope I'm wrong, but this game looks to me done and dusted - Saders by plenty.

MP: Saders $1.33 Bulls $4.35 Draw $50
TAB: Saders $1.35 Bulls $3.00
BF: Saders $1.38 Bulls 3.10 Draw $26

WARATAHS v STORMERS

I'm assuming the Tahs cannot play any worse than they did last week. If they do, I suppose they'll lose again, but I like the changes they have made and any reasonable execution of basic rugby skills should see them win.

MP: Tahs $1.43 Storm $3.57 Draw $50
TAB: Tahs $1.45 Storm $2.60
BF: Tahs $1.47 Storm $3.15 Draw $27

CHEETAHS v BRUMBIES

The one game where the bookies think there might be a contest, while I just have little confidence about either side winning - a bit like the Force Canes game last week. If I had to get off the fence, I can see the Brumbies sneaking it if they can kick their goals (they're running at under 60% this season - the worst side in the comp) but at the prices it's a sit and watch.

MP: Cheet $2.11 Brumb $2.06 Draw $25
TAB: Cheet $1.90 Brumb $1.85 (opened 1.85 / 1.90)
BF: Cheet $2.00 Brumb $2.04 Draw $17

SHARKS v HURRICANES

The last game is the only one where I think the prices may be a bit wrong. If the Crusaders, Waratahs, Bulls (all semifinalists last year) and Highlanders can't win at Durban, why on earth would anyone think the hot and cold Canes can? They would have to be very hot (and they will - it's steaming in Durban at the moment) and given they have trouble catching the ball at places like Palmerston North, I can't see them hanging onto the piece of soap it becomes in the humidity at Durban.

Along with the Blues, the Sharks have been the most consistent team week to week; if they hit $1.60 at Betfair (for some reason they're drifting) I'm in.

MP: Shark $1.45 Cane $3.51 Draw $40
TAB: Shark $1.50 Cane $2.50
BF: Shark $1.57 Cane $2.92 Draw $27

S14 Injury List Week 7

BLUES (BYE) – 11 Tuitavake (hamstring)
CHIEFS - 4 Gibbes (calf, Week 8+), 6 Bates (ankle, Week 8), 13 Kahui (shoulder, Week 8+), 13 Ta’auso (reserves), 15 Anesi (neck - season), 15 Muliaina (ankle - season), 21 Lavea (starting)
HURRICANES - 17 Fairbrother (shoulder - season), 21 Nonu (shin, Week 9)
CRUSADERS - 12 Tipoki (calf strain, 1 week)
HIGHLANDERS (BYE) – 21 Hore (ribs), 22 Zampach (broken foot), 22 Clare (broken leg)
WARATAHS - 4 Kanaar (knee - season), 5 Vickerman (knee - season?), 7 Waugh (ankle – season), 16 Polota-Nau (elbow, Week 7?)
BRUMBIES – 4 Campbell (stress fracture foot, Week 12), 6 Heenan (off season surgery - return unknown), 10 Larkham (chest, Week 8), 16 Palavi (neck - retired), 21 Carraro (broken hand)
REDS - 1 Holmes (shoulder - season), 3 Blake (ankle – season), 5 McMeniman (ankle - Week 8), 9 Cordingley (foot surgery, Week ?), 12 Andrew Brown (punctured lung, Week ?), 14 Veratau (hip), 15 Latham (knee - season), 15 Schifcofske (hand, Week 10), 16 Moore (knee - Week 8), 17 Coutts (shoulder - season), 17 Warren (neck), 17 Mathieson (neck), 19 McVerry (ankle), 19 AJ Gilbert (shoulder)
FORCE - 3 Takiari, 6 Pusey (ankle), 14 Staniforth
BULLS - 2 Botha (hmastring - doubtful), 11 Habana (hamstring - doubtful), 12 Olivier (knee – return unknown), 13 JP Nel (suspended, Week 11), 15 Roets (knee, Week 11), 16 Ralepelle (knee – season), 17a Gerber (arm fracture, Week 11), 17b Bands (calf, Week 11), 18 Dlulane (neck - season), 19 Spies (knee, Week 11), 22 Welsh
CHEETAHS – 2 Strauss (shoulder - season), 4 Duncan (ankle, return unknown), 4 Nel (knee, Week 12), 5 Pieterse (broken foot - season), 12 Goodes (off season surgery, not fit), 15 Fortuin (off season surgery, not fit), 17 CJ Van der Linde (calf, probable season)
LIONS - 3 McKenzie (return unknown), 4 Grobler (shoulder - Week 8), 14 Willemse (return unknown), 15 Rose (shoulder, returned home)
SHARKS – 15 Montgomery (thigh, Week 8), 20 Mathie (?)
STORMERS – 3 Andrews (fractured nose), 8 Van Niekerk (knee - Week 10), 11 Jantjes, 15 Russell, 16 Liebenburg (broken hand), 17 Harris

Super 14 Week 6

Apologies for the late post - a trip to the Hamilton casino being the culprit, which provided an interesting postscript to the Night Owls posting as I was joined at the poker tables by a few tennis players from the Futures tournament going on there this week - despite them all being involved in a doubles semi-final today ...

Anyway, onto the rugby, where I probably won't be betting this weekend:

HIGHLANDERS v REDS

What on earth were the NZ TAB thinking opening the Highlanders up at $1.45 on Monday? One of the few occasions I've regretted not having a TAB account, and I should have opened one up. They are now down to $1.35 which I consider the right price, as I can't see how the Reds can win this game - unless the Highlanders throw in a shocker.

MP: High $1.33 Reds $4.35 Draw $50
TAB: High $1.35 Reds $3.00
Betfair: High $1.38 Reds $3.75 Draw $26

BRUMBIES v STORMERS

Based on my theory that teams in the Super 14 rarely put two bad performances together in a row, I expect the Brumbies with Mortlock back to be able to catch the ball and pass it this week, and hopefully they've learned from the Hurricanes that when passing, give it to a teammate rather than the opposition. I've probably assessed the Brumbies a bit short, but it's a game I don't want to get involved in.

MP: Brum $1.43 Storm $3.57 Draw $50
TAB: Brum $1.40 Storm $2.80
BF: Brum $1.42 Storm $3.10 Draw $30

FORCE v HURRICANES

God knows how to price this game up with Jekyll and Hyde playing at Perth for the first time. Blair Stewart comes in for Gopperth which I think may be a plus, as is Nonu on the bench. Throw a dart at the board to predict this game - I think the Canes will get up but without enough confidence to throw money at them.

MP: Force $2.15 Canes $2.00 Draw $29
TAB: Force $1.95 Canes $1.80
BF: Force $1.95 Canes $2.00 Draw $30

BLUES v LIONS

Anyones predicting this as a top of the table clash preseason would have been put in a straitjacket. The Lions bubble will burst tomorrow night, expecting a similar game to last week's at Eden Park where it might take a while, but the Blues should come home strong.

MP: Blue $1.25 Lion $5.41 Draw $67
TAB: Blue $1.11 Lion $6.00
BF: Blue $1.20 Lion $5.60 Draw $32

WARATAHS v BULLS

The Bulls impressed me last week by playing reasonably smart rugby, something I never trust them to do. If they get the same help from the Tahs as they did from the Brumbies, expect the same result. This is one game I'm almost tempted to bet - the Bulls will be licking their chops at the forward battle where I expect them to dominate, so if (a big if) they do the same things as last week (grind it out, play the percentages) they should win.

MP: Tahs $1.90 Bulls $2.22 Draw $40
TAB: Tahs $1.62 Bulls $2.20
BF: Tahs $1.72 Bulls $2.38 Draw $27

CHEETAHS v SHARKS

I smell a rat in this one. Natal don't have a great record at Bloemfontein in the Currie Cup and the Cheetahs won this fixture last year in Durban (27-26). On recent performances you'd expect the Sharks to win but sometimes with SAF derbies you can throw the formbook out the window. I'm sitting it out, but the Cheetahs are almost at the point to tempt me.

MP: Cheet $2.22 Shark $1.92 Draw $33
TAB: Cheet $2.25 Shark $1.60
BF: Cheet $2.48 Shark $1.71 Draw $25

Super 14 Injury List Week 6

Anybody who plays prop could probably get a gig in Brisbane at the mo' - although whether you'd want to is a different matter. With all the media comment on how badly the Aussie teams are doing, a perusal of this list from week to week partly gives you answers - the Reds, Tahs and to a lesser extent the Brumbies have all had problems and the only Oz team that hasn't - the Force - are performing at (possibly above) expectations.

The Super 14 tests a team's depth in their squad. I'm also starting to wonder about pre-season fitness programmes as year after year a team like the Crusaders seem to get through without major dramas on the injury front and it can't be just co-incidence.

BLUES – 11 Tuitavake (hamstring)
CHIEFS (BYE) - 4 Gibbes (calf, Week 7?), 13 Kahui (shoulder), 13 Ta’auso (neck), 15 Anesi (neck - season), 21 Lavea (knee ligaments, Week 8?)
HURRICANES - 13 Umaga, 17 Fairbrother (shoulder - season)
CRUSADERS (BYE) - none
HIGHLANDERS – 11 Waqaseaduadua, 21 Hore (ribs), 22 Zampach (broken foot), 22 Clare (broken leg)
WARATAHS - 1 Dunning, 4 Kanaar (knee - season), 5 Vickerman (knee - season?), 7 Waugh (ankle – season), 16 Polota-Nau (elbow, Week 7?)
BRUMBIES – 4 Campbell (stress fracture foot, Week 12), 6 Heenan (off season surgery - return unknown), 10 Larkham (chest, Week 8), 13 Mortlock, 14 Rathbone (possible), 16 Palavi (neck - retired), 21 Carraro (broken hand)
REDS - 1 Holmes (shoulder - season), 3 Blake (ankle surgery next week – season), 5 McMeniman (ankle - Week 8), 9 Cordingley (foot surgery, Week 7), 12 Andrew Brown (punctured lung, Week 7) 12 Hynes, 14 Veratau (hip), 15 Latham (knee - season), 15 Schifcofske (hand, Week 10), 16 Moore (knee - Week 8), 17 Coutts (shoulder - season), 17 Warren (neck), 17 Mathieson (neck), 22 Johansson
FORCE - none
BULLS - 12 Olivier (knee – return unknown), 15 Roets (knee, Week 11), 16 Ralepelle (knee – season), 17a Gerber (arm fracture, Week 11), 17b Bands (calf, Week 8?), 18 Dlulane (neck - season), 19 Spies (knee, Week 11), 22 Welsh (hamstring).
CHEETAHS – 1 du Randt (knee, doubtful), 2 Strauss (shoulder - season), 3 Du Plessis (shoulder, doubtful), 4a Duncan (ankle, return unknown), 4b Nel (knee, Week 12), 5 Pieterse (broken foot - season?), 12 Goodes (off season surgery, not fit), 15 Fortuin (off season surgery, not fit)
LIONS - 3 McKenzie (return unknown), 14 Willemse (return unknown)
SHARKS – 12 Barritt (hand, doubtful), 14 Steyn, 15 Montgomery (thigh, 1 or 2 weeks), 20 Mathie (?)
STORMERS – 8 Van Niekerk (knee - Week 7+), 11 Jantjes (returned home), 15 Russell (concussion), 16 Liebenburg (returned home), 17 Harris (ankle), 22 Seconds, reserve outside backs Booi and Chavhanga injured.

Super 14 Week 5 Preview

Another quiet week by the looks of it – all 7 games involve the home side starting as favourite in the betting markets, although so far this year teams in this position have paid out only 14 times out of 22. So chances are there will be an away win or two this weekend, but where?

BLUES v HIGHLANDERS

Probably not here, but my jaw did hit the ground somewhat when the TAB opened the Blues at $1.15. Although they have drifted slightly to $1.17, perhaps more realistic prices can be found overseas where they are commonly $1.20 to $1.25.

The usual situation where the underdog away team is paying too much; I’ll be surprised if the Blues don’t win as they should have far too much gas and skill in the backs but funnier things have happened in sport. I’ve managed to get a little (i.e. not enough unfortunately) nibble on the Highlanders at $7 to keep me awake tonight.

My Prices: Blues $1.42 Highlanders $3.70 Draw $40
NZ TAB: Blues $1.17 Highlanders $4.75
Betfair (best available to back): Blues $1.25 Highlanders $5.60 Draw $27

WARATAHS v FORCE

Hard to predict this one – especially as the game may get nasty as there won’t exactly be a lot of lurrrrve in the air tonight at Sydney. And throw in the curveball of Marks as referee I’m staying on the sidelines, although if someone wants to give me $3 on the Force I’ll take it.

MP: Tahs $1.67 Force $2.70 Draw $33
NZ TAB: Tahs $1.45 Force $2.65
Betfair: Tahs $1.57 Force $2.76 Draw $27

CHEETAHS v CHIEFS

Both teams have made significant changes as they deal with the short turnaround from last week. Another game which is hard to figure out – the Cheetahs certainly dropped their intensity last week and got killed at the breakdown, while the Chiefs keep finding ways to lose winning games. No bet for me.

MP: Cheetahs $1.61 Chiefs $2.86 Draw $33
NZ TAB: Cheetahs $1.55 Chiefs $2.35
Betfair: Cheetahs $1.60 Chiefs $2.80 Draw $27

HURRICANES v STORMERS

This is one game where they should head straight to the bar and forget about the 80 minutes in the middle as the result is a foregone conclusion – although I suppose there is a small possibility after their tough start the Canes may drop off the pace a little away from Westpac Stadium (the game is being played in Palmerston North). For that reason alone, it wouldn’t be the silliest idea to consider the Canes winning by 12 and under ($2.90 at the TAB) but I think I’ll pass.

MP: Canes $1.27 Stormers $5.00 Draw $67
NZ TAB: Canes $1.18 Stormers $4.50
Betfair: Canes $1.20 Stormers $5.00 Draw $29

BRUMBIES v BULLS

Geez. Anyone really want to back the Brumbies without Mortlock and Larkham? Or the Bulls who are not exactly renowned as great travellers? Normally I’d have this as a Brumbies lock but them without M and L is like the ABs without McCaw and Carter. Next.

MP: Brumbies $1.47 Bulls $3.33 Draw $50
NZ TAB: Brumbies $1.40 Bulls $2.85
Betfair: Brumbies $1.48 Bulls $3.30 Draw: $27

REDS v LIONS

Mumble grumble. Yes I’m still pissed at missing the Lions last week and like a lemming to a cliff I’ll probably be sucked into backing them at a far shorter price this week and do my dough. While the Reds have played better in their home games so far this year, I think their style of play will pose no problems for the Lions who have a decent shout at winning. If I can get $2.70 on the Pussies I’m in.

MP: Reds $1.81 Lions $2.41 Draw $30
NZ TAB: Reds $1.50 Lions $2.50
Betfair: Reds $1.65 Lions $2.64 Draw $27

SHARKS v CRUSADERS

And for the second week running the Crusaders close off the round away to a Saffer team as a slight underdog in the most interesting match-up of the weekend. Can the Sharks do what the Cheetahs couldn’t? I say YES – and having laid the Crusaders early in the week at $1.92 I’m happy with the bet. One caveat: my favourite referee Stuart Dickinson is in control of his first Super 14 match this year so the game may not be a great spectacle (translation: expect a penalty feast).

MP: Sharks $1.92 Crusaders $2.25 Draw $29
NZ TAB: Sharks $1.87 Saders $1.87
Betfair: Sharks $1.88 Saders $2.16 Draw $25

WEEK 4 REVIEW

Yes I backed the Cheetahs. Wrong (feline) animal.

Week 4: -1.94
Season to date: +11.63

Super 14 Injury List - Week 5

BLUES – 11 Tuitavake (hamstring)
CHIEFS - 4 Gibbes (calf, Week 7?), 13 Kahui (reinjured shoulder), 15 Anesi (neck - season), 21 Lavea (knee ligaments, Week 8?)
HURRICANES - 7 Lilo?, 13 Umaga (achilles tendon), 13 Smith, 17 Fairbrother (shoulder - season)
CRUSADERS - none
HIGHLANDERS - 10 Evans
WARATAHS - 1 Dunning (knee, Week 7?), 4 Kanaar (knee - season), 5 Vickerman (knee - season?), 7 Waugh (ankle – season), 8 Lyons
BRUMBIES – 4 Campbell (stress fracture foot, Week 12), 6 Heenan (off season surgery - return unknown), 10 Larkham (chest, Week 8), 13 Mortlock, 16 Palavi (neck - retired)
REDS - 1 Holmes (shoulder, Week 5+), 5 McMeniman (ankle - Week 8), 9 Cordingley (foot surgery, Week 7), 12 Andrew Brown (punctured lung, Week 6) 12 Hynes (ankle, doubtful), 15 Latham (knee - season), 16 Moore (knee - Week 8), 17 Coutts (shoulder, doubtful), 22 Johansson (suspended, Week 6)
FORCE – none
BULLS - 12 Olivier (knee – return unknown), 16 Ralepelle (knee – return unknown), 17a Gerber (arm fracture, Week 6+), 17b Bands (calf, Week 8?), 18 Dlulane (neck - season), 19 Spies (knee, Week 6+), 22 Welsh (hamstring).
CHEETAHS - 1 Du Randt (possible return), 4a Duncan (ankle, return unknown), 5 Pieterse (broken foot - season?), 12 Goodes (off season surgery, not fit), 15 Fortuin (off season surgery, not fit)
LIONS - 3 McKenzie (return unknown), 4 Grobler, 14 Willemse (return unknown), 21 Boshoff
SHARKS - 4 Ackerman, 14 Odwa Ndungane (possible return?), 14 Steyn (ankle, Week 8), 20 Mathie (?),
STORMERS – 8 Van Niekerk (knee - Week 7+), 11a Jantjes, 11b Seconds, reserve outside backs Booi and Chavhanga injured.

S14 winners market

So where's the value at the moment?

Short answer is there is none. The NZ TAB have the Crusaders and Blues at $3.75 and the Canes at $4. That doesn't look like value to me.

To win the S14 you have to make the semifinals. The only two teams out of the real contenders to have made positive strides towards that are the Blues and Canes, and both their prices have shortened from preseason (Canes $5 Blues $6). Note: I don't rate the Sharks as a real contender, and will wait until their road trip before subjecting them to scrutiny.

The first four weeks hasn't exactly provided any clues as to what will happen in May, save the Blues and Canes will probably be in the final 4, and the Reds, Stormers and Chiefs won't be. I still think the Crusaders will miss out, but a win in Durban at the weekend may change that.

S14 Week 4 Preview

Not a particularly appetising round of matches from a betting point of view this week, but there are a couple which have playoff ramifications, starting with:

HURRICANES v BRUMBIES

Both teams are genuine semi contenders; both sit on 9 points after 2 wins and a loss; both could have just as easily been 0 and 3, and both have played the same opponents in the first three weeks (Chiefs and Reds away, and the Blues at home).

Normally applying the mathematical logic of A beat B and B beat C so A must beat C is fraught with danger in sport, but a review of each team’s performance against the three common opponents leads to the conclusion that ordinarily there wouldn’t be too much separating these two at the end of 80 minutes. Add in the Canes are at home, and the Brumbies are missing their skipper – and I’m expecting the Canes to win this one. But at the prices, no bet – although if the Brumbies drift further I’m in.

My Prices: Hurricanes $1.67 Brumbies $2.67 Draw $40
NZ TAB: Canes $1.45 Brumbies $2.65
Betfair (best available to back): Canes $1.46 Brumbies $2.84 Draw $19

HIGHLANDERS v STORMERS

Normally NZ teams returning home from SAF are not the safest of bets, but at least here the Stormers have also had to endure the trip, although arriving a day earlier. Interesting to see the Speights boys have picked two open-side flankers and put the blindside at lock, and I think in this dance of the desperate we may be in for a pleasant surprise and see a reasonably entertaining game with plenty of points. Especially if the ball can get out to the left wing – Russell for the Sharks and Waqaseaduadua for the Highlanders.

As for picking a winner – as usual the home side is a bit short on the tote but the prices aren’t attractive enough to get involved.

MP: Highlanders $1.60 Stormers $2.86 Draw $40
NZ TAB: Highlanders $1.50 Stormers $2.50
Betfair: Highlanders $1.50 Stormers $2.74 Draw $26

BLUES v REDS

As a habitual outsider backer, the Reds should grab my attention, but I can’t see how they could win this game if it was played 10 times. Yet more injuries to the pack, a game-plan which although effective won’t see them score enough points – nup, no hope. There is a chance this could get seriously ugly on the scoreboard but equally if the Reds continue to be efficient in securing possession and retaining it, it may end up being close. So no bet on the match odds, not confident enough to take the Blues at 13 and over – another sit and watch.

MP: Blues $1.27 Reds $5.00 Draw $67
NZ TAB: Blues $1.25 Reds $3.75
Betfair: Blues $1.30 Reds $4.30 Draw $26

FORCE v LIONS

One team is going to break their duck – the Force have yet to win at home while the Pussies have never won a game in Australia in 11 seasons. Based on current form, only the insane would back the Lions but you could have said that last week, too. Its déjà vu again where the prices are almost at the point where a wee speculator on the Lions wouldn’t be the stupidest idea this weekend.

MP: Force $1.39 Lions $3.85 Draw $50
NZ TAB: Force $1.18 Lions $4.50
Betfair: Force $1.28 Lions $4.60 Draw $29

BULLS v CHIEFS

Another dance of the desperate – two teams with more injuries than a MASH unit and who have been giving out Xmas presents left, right and centre. Will Bates throw another intercept? Will Victor take the shots at goal?

The aura of invincibility that the Bulls have had at Pretoria should be well out of the minds of punters now – 4 from 7 last year and a loss to the Force last weekend. This game is the hardest to price up this weekend, as it’s the most unpredictable. I’m staying on the sidelines.

MP: Bulls $1.60 Chiefs $2.86 Draw $40
NZ TAB: Bulls $1.45 Chiefs $2.65
Betfair: Bulls $1.45 Chiefs $3.20 Draw: $26

CHEETAHS v CRUSADERS

The last game of the round is the most interesting – the Cheetahs could do us all a big favour and knock the champs off leaving them in danger of missing the playoffs already – as I can’t see the Crusaders winning next weekend against the Sharks coming off a week’s rest.

For mine, the Cheetahs have been the one team who has looked dangerous – getting a reasonable supply of the pill and just as importantly doing something with it. They worried me a little bit stepping off the gas last weekend and allowing the Tahs to get back in the game, and the Saders are the one team you wouldn’t want to do that too. I want to price the Cheetahs at around $1.60 but I have this nagging feeling that the Crusaders know this is a must-win while the Cheetahs may not be at the same intensity shown (at times) last weekend. I hope I’m wrong.

MP: Cheetahs $1.82 Crusaders $2.38 Draw $33
NZ TAB: Cheetahs $1.85 Saders $1.90
Betfair: Cheetahs $1.95 Saders $2.08 Draw $26

WEEK 3 REVIEW

A couple of late decisions paid off getting on the two upsets of the round:

Backed Force to beat Bulls: +4.14
Traded in-play Canes v Blues: +1.39
Backed Tahs to beat Cheetahs: -2.00
Backed Lions to beat Crusaders: +7.64
Backed under 43.5 points in above game: +1.25
Backed Highlanders to beat Sharks: -2.08
Backed Highlanders with 10.5 points start: +1.05

Week 3: +11.39
Season to date: +13.57

Super 14 Injury List - Week 4

BLUES – none
CHIEFS - 4 Gibbes (calf, Week 7?), 5 Robinson (calf, Week 5), 8 Lauaki, 10 Donald (groin – doubtful), 13 Kahui, 15 Anesi (neck - season), 21 Lavea (knee ligaments, Week 8?)
HURRICANES – 7 Lilo, 13 Smith (Week 5), 17 Fairbrother (shoulder - season)
CRUSADERS - none
HIGHLANDERS - 10 Evans (knee, Week 5), 14 Waqaseduadua (knee, Week 6+), 15 Horton (rib injury, Week 5)
WARATAHS (BYE) - 1 Dunning (knee, Week 7?), 4 Kanaar (knee - season), 5 Vickerman (off season surgery, Week 8+), 7 Waugh (ankle – season), 8 Lyons (knee, Week 5)
BRUMBIES – 4 Campbell (foot, Week 5), 6 Heenan (off season surgery - return unknown), 13 Mortlock (neck/jaw, Week 5), 16 Palavi (neck - retired)
REDS - 1 Holmes (shoulder, Week 5+), 5 McMeniman (ankle - Week 8), 9 Cordingley (foot surgery, Week 5+), 12 Andrew Brown (punctured lung, Week 5+), 14 Caleb Brown, 15 Latham (knee - season), 16 Moore (knee - Week 8+), 22 Johansson (suspended, Week 6)
FORCE – 8 Fava, 10 Hilgendorf (possible return)
BULLS - 4 Botha, 10 Hougaard (reserves), 11 Habana, 12 Olivier (knee – return unknown), 16 Ralepelle (knee – return unknown), 17a Gerber (arm fracture, Week 6+), 17b Bands (calf, Week 8?), 18 Dlulane (neck - season), 19 Spies (knee, Week 6+), 22 Welsh (hamstring).
CHEETAHS - 1 Du Randt (possible return), 3 Du Plessis (doubtful), 4a Duncan (ankle, return unknown), 4b Nel (doubtful), 5 Pieterse (broken foot - season?), 12 Goodes (off season surgery, not fit), 15 Fortuin (off season surgery, not fit)
LIONS - 3 McKenzie (return unknown), 4 Grobler (knee, Week 5), 8 Cronje (possible return), 10 Andre Pretorius (possible return), 14 Willemse (return unknown), 21 Boshoff (rib, Week 5)SHARKS (BYE) - 4 Ackerman (calf, Week 5), 14 Odwa Ndungane (probable return Week 5), 20 Mathie (?),
STORMERS – 4 Boome (available – not selected), 8 Van Niekerk (knee - Week 7+), 11a Jantjes (thigh, Week 5), 11b Seconds (hamstring, Week 5), 18 Skeate, reserve outside backs Booi and Chavhanga injured.