Market Madness

Sorry for the lack of a post yesterday - a morning spent at the Frankin Primary Schools Orienteering Championships helping 600 kids have a morning out in the sunshine followed by some personal issues meant updating the blog was down the list of priorities.

But I've been spending most of my waking hours thinking about the next 2 weeks of the Super 14 as the betting markets are showing some of the most unusual behaviour I've seen in a very long time.

Basically many bookmakers have under-reacted to the surprise location of one of the semi-finals - that being Pretoria. Not the NZ TAB, who opened up on Monday with what I thought were reasonably sensible prices in both the winner's market and for the two semi-final games, being:

Winner's Market

Bulls $2.75
Sharks $2.75 (since amended to $2.90)
Crusaders $3.50 (since amended to $3.25)
Blues $7.50

Semi Finals

Bulls $1.60 Crusaders $2.25
Sharks $1.45 Blues $2.60 (now $1.40 - $2.80)

However a troll of the internet shows others taking a different stance - e.g. Centrebet in Australia had (past tense, a check of their prices and they seem to have disappeared) the Crusaders and Bulls joint favourite to win the competition at $2.85 while William Hill (UK) really don't rate the Bulls at $3.75.

If you do the maths, the prices in the winner's market and for the individual games are seriously out-of sync; for example on Betfair the Crusaders are $3.30 to win S14 and $2.30 to beat the Bulls. That is saying if the Crusaders win their semi-final they will be $1.43 to win the final. Oh really? Maybe if they're playing the Blues at Jade but certainly not if they're playing the Sharks at Durban. And which of those scenarios is the more likely of the two?

The discrepancies can be partly explained by some bookmakers will have some liability on the Crusaders winning the competiton, thus keeping the price short. But the puzzling thing is the bookmaker most likely to be in the shit if the Crusaders win the S14 - the NZ TAB - are the ones offering the highest price! (on both the winner's market and for the semi-final games)

To cut a long story short, there is some unbelievable value on the Bulls and Sharks to either win the S14 or win their semi-final - unfortunately for NZ readers not at the local TAB - and as these situations don't arise very often I'm like a kid in a lolly shop. Get on!!!