Super 14 Week 7 Preview

Another unappetising round of matches from a betting point of view, with all bar one involving strong home favourites that I find around the right price. So short and sweet:

CHIEFS v LIONS

May not be the cakewalk the prices suggest, but the Chiefs should have a decided advantage once past first phase. Can't see past a Chiefs win, but if it's tight and boring the Lions do have a sniff.

MP: Chiefs $1.33 Lions $4.35 Draw $50
TAB: Chiefs $1.28 Lions $3.50
BF: Chiefs $1.33 Lions $4.10 Draw $28

FORCE v REDS

The Force has drifted with the news Henjak and Giteau are out, which is an over-reaction. It conveniently overlooks on the other side 13 squad members are in the MASH tent, and they'll miss Barnes just as much as the Force will miss Giteau. So long as Andrew Walker is kept in check, the home side should romp in.

MP: Force $1.41 Reds $3.70 Draw $50
TAB: Force $1.40 Reds $2.85 (opened 1.28 / 3.50)
BF: Force $1.45 Reds $3.30 Draw $26

CRUSADERS v BULLS

Fark the Bulls p!ss me off sometimes. WTF is Matfield doing on the bench? The Bulls could do everyone (including themselves) a big favour by giving this game 100% as a loss here put the Saders in danger of missing the playoffs. No matter what noises are made to the contrary, it smacks of we'll target the other 2 games in NZ to win and take what comes with this one.

At times the Bulls pack looked disinterested against the Tahs and in some ways their win last week was flattering - based on moments of individual brilliance and an inept opposition. I hope I'm wrong, but this game looks to me done and dusted - Saders by plenty.

MP: Saders $1.33 Bulls $4.35 Draw $50
TAB: Saders $1.35 Bulls $3.00
BF: Saders $1.38 Bulls 3.10 Draw $26

WARATAHS v STORMERS

I'm assuming the Tahs cannot play any worse than they did last week. If they do, I suppose they'll lose again, but I like the changes they have made and any reasonable execution of basic rugby skills should see them win.

MP: Tahs $1.43 Storm $3.57 Draw $50
TAB: Tahs $1.45 Storm $2.60
BF: Tahs $1.47 Storm $3.15 Draw $27

CHEETAHS v BRUMBIES

The one game where the bookies think there might be a contest, while I just have little confidence about either side winning - a bit like the Force Canes game last week. If I had to get off the fence, I can see the Brumbies sneaking it if they can kick their goals (they're running at under 60% this season - the worst side in the comp) but at the prices it's a sit and watch.

MP: Cheet $2.11 Brumb $2.06 Draw $25
TAB: Cheet $1.90 Brumb $1.85 (opened 1.85 / 1.90)
BF: Cheet $2.00 Brumb $2.04 Draw $17

SHARKS v HURRICANES

The last game is the only one where I think the prices may be a bit wrong. If the Crusaders, Waratahs, Bulls (all semifinalists last year) and Highlanders can't win at Durban, why on earth would anyone think the hot and cold Canes can? They would have to be very hot (and they will - it's steaming in Durban at the moment) and given they have trouble catching the ball at places like Palmerston North, I can't see them hanging onto the piece of soap it becomes in the humidity at Durban.

Along with the Blues, the Sharks have been the most consistent team week to week; if they hit $1.60 at Betfair (for some reason they're drifting) I'm in.

MP: Shark $1.45 Cane $3.51 Draw $40
TAB: Shark $1.50 Cane $2.50
BF: Shark $1.57 Cane $2.92 Draw $27