Overload

So, let us see what's in store for the weekend then:

Midnight tonight - the Aussies and Poms clash in 20/20 cricket, followed by India v Pakistan, interrupted by the small matter of a rugby match between the Boks and the Poms. Soon after that finishes, take stepdaughter to netball (normally I'd get wife to, but she's in bed sick).

Try and get some sleep during the daylight hours tomorrow, as I have to go to my brother's 50th birthday tomorrow evening, which I'll be leaving after a few hours to get back for some more cricket (NZ v Sri Lanka) and rugby (Wales v Australia).

Preparing for a weekend like this is a friggin nightmare, especially as I'm distracted by a pending house and town shift in 2 weeks time. Yes, you may question the wisdom of the timing, but you should see the schedule of cricket from October onwards.

So sorry, no words of wisdom today. I can't even summon the intellect to try and write something mildly interesting or humourous. My brain is fried and I need to go and get some shut-eye before the next 48 hours of madness.

Groundhog Day

Perhaps partly because of my mood (yes, haven't quite sailed out of the doldrums yet), but rugby prices are boring me to tears at the moment - and it's hard to think of new ways to say the same thing, so at the risk of sending my four regular readers off to sleep ...

Yes, the TAB has NZ winning tomorrow night's Bledisloe Cup clash by 12 and under at a mouth-watering $2.85. I haven't seen anything over the last few weeks to convince me that suddenly the All Blacks will catch more passes than they spill, the backs will run up and down the field instead of across, and a 30-point thrashing is on the cards. Yes, it could happen (fuck, how many times have I said that over the last couple of months?), but on the balance of probabilities, we'll have another scrappy, error-ridden win that will all leaving us scratching our heads, but hopefully with fatter wallets.

The more adventurous of you who would like to speculate to accumulate might perhaps be interested in the $4.50 for NZ by 8-14.

If Oz manage to add their bit to Groundhod Day by repeating their miracle of Melbourne, you'll hear the screams coming out of my household from the other side of the world, as this time I'm not saving on them winning. Gawd help us if they do - can you imagine the cackling from the other side of the Tasman if we lose both the rugby and netball in the same week in the Queen City?

Now, here's a couple of exercises who take (or want to take) their punting a little seriously.

Exercise One.

The H2H (head-to-head) prices for this weekend's rugby test on Betfair is NZ 1.20 Australia 6.20 (for the purposes of this, we're ignoring the draw). The price on Betfair for NZ to reach the final of the RWC is 1.21. Given the probable semi-final opponent of the All Blacks (hint: they wear yellow), logically explain in 20 words or less how these prices are consistent with each other.

Exercise Two.

The prices for the first cricket test between England v India at the commenement of play on Day 1 are approx. England 5.0 India 8.0 Draw 1.46. (There is a shitload of rain forecast for Day 2 which you assume has been factored into the market). An average first day of test cricket sees the team batting first score in the high 200's for the loss of 4 wickets.

At the close of play, England are 268-4. The close of day prices are England 7.4 India 21 Draw 1.21. Another logical explanation required in 20 words or less.

Have a good weekend.

P.S. Tim - you've piqued my interest in the Air NZ Cup. A mate who knows more than I do says it's a three-horse race between the Jafas, Cowbells and Public Servants. That 8.0 you can get at Centrebet I'd take without a second thought.

Swiss Cheese

Something the South African backline shares some characteristics with.

Yes, we have the All Blacks playing after a week off. In short:

If the ABs play badly - a 10-15pt win
If they play reasonable - a 20-25 pt win
If they play well? I shudder to think.

While I can see the forward battle being reasonably competitive, especially if Keith Robinson manages to get past the warm-ups, I hold very real fears for the Saffer backline coping with MacAlister and Toeava. If they actually catch more passes than they spill, gawd help the Bokkies.

I'm not betting the game - the handicap is around 23 points which is maybe a few points too many but I'm not prepared to back SAF covering it. Can't back the ABs on the match odds, while a NZ win by 13 and over is a paltry $1.32 on Betfair, which is possibly the best bet out of the lot but I won't take it.

So a sit and watch for me tomorrow night. Have a good weekend; come back next week as a major SPARC rant is brewing.

ABs by 9

Sorry for the late post - the wife demanded today be a shopping day and it's in my best interests to occasionally say yes. Actually this week I've been a bit lazy but my views on tomorrow's test haven't changed much since the beginning of the week.

NZ opened up $1.16 at the NZ TAB which is too short, and have drifted slightly to $1.20. The match odds do not tempt me to back Australia, and once again I am drawn to the price on NZ winning by 12 and under, which you can get for $2.80 at the TAB.

While there is always a chance of a blow-out if the All Blacks really click into gear, the Wallabies performance at Newlands (and at Brisbane last year) lead me down the path of another physical tight contest, which the ABs should win. What I'll be watching tomorrow with interest is:

(a) the lineouts - can be an achilles heel for the ABs and Vickerman showed against SAF he's lost nothing in his injury-enforced absence; and

(b) tactical kicking - to be honest, no side in the Tri-Nations so far have shown much intelligence when booting the ball down the other end of the park, and I wonder whether either side tomorrow will be any better. In particular I'll be watching Huxley - he's not a test No. 15 but did show in a couple of Super 14 games when he's put the right boots on, he is as good a tactical kicker as anyone. If he's carving off large chunks of territory, this game could turn into an arm wrestle.

So on the balance of probabilities, a win for the ABs under the handicap which the bookies have around 12 points. I'd rather take the $2.80 for a NZ win by 12 and under than back Aus on the handicap (expect a lot of spewing on Monday if Oz cause an upset).

Have a good weekend.

Two more sleeps

Yes, like a kid at Xmas I’m impatiently waiting for the Bok-AB test on Saturday night, most of my bets are down and now just hurry up to the kickoff please.

It’s not an easy game to predict – much will come down to tactics and decision-making, and probably the bounce of the ball. The AB’s could win by plenty or get stuffed themselves, but more likely something in-between, a narrow grinding win to one side or the other.

As with any sporting contest, all you can do is assess the probability of each team winning, compare it with the odds available and go from there. FWIW, I’d make the All Blacks slight favourites but nowhere near the $1.50-$1.60 range that most bookmakers have. It has been interesting to note the NZTAB shortening the AB price daily – from an opening $1.65 on Monday to $1.50 currently. I assume they are taking an avalanche of money from both small and big punters.

But not mine. I’m on the Saffers for this one; purely for price reasons – I think they are not much less than a 50% chance to win this game, so I have to bet on them. However if you beg to differ and want to back the black machine this weekend; seriously consider the $2.60 for NZ by 12 or under rather than the match odds of $1.50.

No post tomorrow – Ma is coming for a visit and the house needs a bit of a tidy-up; so have a good weekend.

Super 14 Semis

Two mouth-watering clashes are not too many hours away - one sleep as a kid on Xmas Eve would say, and to be honest I can't wait to see how these two semis pan out. Not because I have money riding on them; while on the balance of probabilities the two home sides should get home, the one constant in sport are the surprises that get thrown up - so don't be surprised if the Blues and Crusaders are on the plane to Christchurch come Monday to play another game.

Just don't bet on it. The press I've been reading are the Saffers are more nervous about the Sharks advancing than the Bulls, even though they are at sub-$1.50 compared to the Bulls $1.75-ish for winning in the weekend. Honestly, I can't see what they're worried about. The Blues looked good last week because (a) the Force played poorly, and (b) McAlister made a large difference to the backline functioning, and he ain't there. With the caveat that the referee is Mr S. Dickinson and he has been known in the past to fk up an otherwise promising game of rugby, as long as the Sharks handle the nerves and don't partake in too many brain explosions (Francois Steyn is a good candidate for one or two), the game is theirs for the taking.

And so we move onto the Bulls v Crusaders. The way the Bulls have been playing you would think they should walk into the final but if there is one team that can pull off a semifinal visit to Loftus with a win, it would be the red and blacks. Except for one thing - their lineout has been at times as dysfunctional as bowel movements after a hot curry. There is the possibility that Corey Flynn will be named the Bulls' man of the match if he has one of his off nights.

Yes, the Crusaders have been famed in the past for winning games without not too much pill but that mojo seems to have worn off if you view the evidence from the last two weeks. Therein lies the problem - they need ball, they won't get it from lineout time so they will be reliant on turnovers from breakdowns and Bulls' mistakes to get a reasonable share of possession. Rather ironic - we bang on here in NZ about how Saffer teams feed off opposition mistakes to be effective yet that is what the Crusaders will be relying on (plus McCaw at the breakdown) to have a shot in this game.

This game is in the Bulls' hands - turn up and play the way they have and they should win. But this is sport - anything can happen.

Betting-wise there's not much on offer; the Sharks and Bulls are at skinny odds at the NZ TAB while I don't think backing the NZ teams would be the smartest move in the world. Personally I think these games are a sit and watch, but if you have $10 burning a hole in your wallet the bet to me is the Bulls at the handicap - it's only 3.5 points which I think if they do turn up to play they'll cover quite easily.

Have a good weekend.

Super 14 Week 14

The final round sees some juicy match-ups with semifinal implications, none more so than the games tonight ...

CRUSADERS ($1.29) v CHIEFS ($4.60) (NZTAB $1.20 - $4.20)

Forget the Chiefs' insipid display last week. Rewind back to their first-half performances against the Blues and Sharks to get a taste of what you'll see - a titanic forward battle full of bone-crunching hits that'll keep the blood-thirsty happy.

I love it when the media start mentioning records - so the Crusaders haven't lost at Jade Stadium for 26 matches. Good - they're due for one then :-). Yes, my water is telling me the Chiefs have a good sniff of an upset here - certainly they are overpriced but perhaps the best bet is backing them with the points start. The line is at 10.5; same as Crusaders/Hurricanes which the Canes covered by half a point and given the Chiefs haven't lost by more than 7 points all year I feel it's a comfortable bet if you can get close to evens (which you can't at the TAB - it's $1.87). Factor in there may be dew around after a fine day down in ChCh and the Chiefs +10.5 will do me. I may even have a nibble at the match odds.

If, unlike me, you're more bullish about the Crusaders chances, the $2.70 for winning by 12 and under ($2.96 on Betfair) seems a helluva lot more playable than the skinny match odds.

FORCE ($2.52) v BLUES ($1.66) (NZTAB $2.25 - $1.60)

Of the 84 matches so far, 20 have involved the home team starting as the underdog. They've won 8 of them, which is less than 50%, but at average odds of $3.40. If you look at underdog teams starting at odds of $2-$3, they're 5 out of 10.

While the sample size is too small to draw conclusions, it does possibly suggest the bookmakers overvalue the ability of a better away team to get past a (slightly?) inferior home team. So in this case, especially given the way the Blues have been travelling, I wouldn't touch $1.66 for the Blues with a barge pole. So it becomes a question of whether to back the Force and that is today's job for the subconcious (i.e. I haven't decided yet). The handicap is 4.5 and unplayable.

HIGHLANDERS ($2.56) v BRUMBIES ($1.68) (NZTAB $2.35 - $1.55)

I'm waiting for the results of the previous two games before doing anything here - the Brumbies need both the Chiefs and Blues to lose to have any hope of making the semis. If one of them win, they're pretty much gone and if it turns out to be a meaningless game I'd expect the Highlanders to be far more interested as they farewell Anton and Carl.

Even without considering the scenarios, it's another case where the home team doesn't deserve to be a $2.50 underdog and as I've stated before I always think the Highlanders are overpriced by the bookmakers. I'd price this game close to evens, so even the $2.35 at the TAB I'd take.

HURRICANES ($1.35) v WARATAHS ($4.10) (NZTAB $1.30 - $3.30)

Another farewell party and a game that holds no interest, although I guess if the Tahs look back to last year they might turn up motivated. I'm staying out of it.

LIONS ($1.82) v CHEETAHS ($2.22) (NZTAB $1.65 - $2.15)
STORMERS ($3.40) v SHARKS ($1.46) (NZTAB $2.60 - $1.45)
BULLS ($1.06) v REDS ($14.50) (NZTAB $1.03 - $10)

The three games in South Africa hold little appeal from a betting point of view (also from a staying up all night and watching point of view) - the prices aren't too much different from what I'd have so I'll pass on all three.