Super 14 Week 9 Preview

A quick look at this weekend’s matches …

HIGHLANDERS v CHEETAHS

The Cheetahs, apart from a close game against the Chiefs, were hammered on their road trip last year so it will be interesting to see how they handle the trip to Invercargill. I think the prices are about right – no bet.

MP: High 1.47 Cheet 3.33 Draw 50
TAB: High 1.50 Cheet 2.50
BF: High 1.55 Cheet 2.90 Draw 29

FORCE v SHARKS

I had earmarked this as a game the Sharks could drop but thanks to last weekend’s loss, I’m not getting the price I want. I believe it won’t be a high-scoring affair (both defences seem solid) and am expecting a close battle.

MP: Forc 1.82 Shks 2.41 Draw 29
TAB: Forc 1.75 Shks 2.00
BF: Forc 1.85 Shks 2.16 Draw 27

HURRICANES v BULLS

Two of the more inconsistent sides play each other. Anyone who bets on this game needs a straitjacket.

MP: Cane 1.85 Bull 2.33 Draw 33
TAB: Cane 1.75 Bull 2.00
BF: Cane 1.84 Bull 2.06 Draw 26

CHIEFS v BLUES

Traditionally a “bogey” side for the Blues, you’d think the Blues are travelling too well (and the Chiefs too mediocre) for them to win with some comfort. Still, at the prices I think the Chiefs are worth a small wager.

MP: Chief 3.13 Blue 1.52 Draw 50
TAB: Chief 4.00 Blue 1.22
BF: Chief 3.85 Blue 1.35 Draw 30

WARATAHS v CRUSADERS

Next.

MP: Tahs 5.00 Saders 1.27 Draw 80
TAB: Tahs 6.00 Saders 1.11
BF: Tahs 6.00 Saders 1.17 Draw 40

LIONS v BRUMBIES

Last but not least the sugar daddy Lions take on last week’s surprise packet, the Mortlock-less Brumbies. Yet again I’ll find myself plonking some money on the pussies as the Bookmakers continue to think this is 2006, not 2007. They should be favourites at home – where they are 4 and 1 so far this year.

MP: Lion 1.60 Brum 2.86 Draw 40
TAB: Lion 2.00 Brum 1.75
BF: Lion 2.08 Brum 1.98 Draw 24

Cricket: Super 8 Preview

Super Eight? More like the Surprising Eight, with India and Pakistan already knocked out. Personally, it’s more than a little annoying as 24 potential second-round opportunities to make money have been whittled down to perhaps 13, but on the bright side a few extra night’s sleep instead of watching cricket from 1.30 a.m. to 10 a.m. might be good for the long-term health.

So what can we expect? First, remember to watch the pitches. New venues – with considerable doubt over the use of Providence Stadium in Guyana which is due to host its first match in less than 48 hours. What has happened in the group stages has little bearing on what is about to happen, except for giving some pointers about how the real contenders are travelling.

Let’s get the minnows out of the way. I don’t expect them to win any games, although Bangladesh on their day does have the capability to beat someone, and anyone. So the conventional wisdom is Australia and NZ have been given a leg up as they play both minnows and have 2 points carried forward, an advantage over the other four.

While that is true to some extent and both antipodean sides have half the door opened to make the semifinals, I don’t think the other sides need to worry too much. For a start, until we see how significant the toss is on these new pitch blocks, such advantage may mean F.A. if you lose 5 tosses in a row. Sri Lanka won’t mind too much about already having their win v Bangladesh as their run rate (which may come into play) starts off very healthy.

Assuming Ireland and Bangladesh won’t make the semis. We’re faced with the problem of fitting six teams into four slots. The two I think are more likely to miss out are the West Indies and England. Admittedly I’ve only seen the one WI game in TV (the first against Pakistan) and while they played OK, I worry about their schedule at this stage which sees the Aussies first up tonight, the Kiwis two days later, and then traveling to Guyana to play Sri Lanka 3 days after that.

I’m not going to repeat the schedules of each team here but there are definitely some teams who have an easier schedule than others, and the WI fall into the “others”. While the Champions Trophy should serve as a reminder the hosts can play this version of the game quite well, it’s a tough road this week and 3 losses will mean they’re gone.

Despite the end to the Commonwealth Bank series, England are definitely the weakest ODI side left out of the major nations and IMHO are just not good enough to get through. Yes, if Pietersen, Collingwood and Flintoff all fire at the same time, or they get enough luck with the tosses, they have a chance of getting to the semis but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Of the four left, NZ’s chances have been dealt a cruel blow with the injury to Vincent. Not so much for his batting – his attitude is like a bunch of happy pills to his teammates and his fielding was like having a sixth bowler go 1/15 each match. In my mind, it’s no co-incidence NZ’s ODI form took a major upswing when he arrived midway through the CB series and I fear a correction may take place now he’s out. Of course I hope I’m wrong.

Down to three, and those writing off Australia because they think their bowlers are kak are being a bit premature. First, let’s see how they perform when there’s an even contest between bat and ball. Second, their batting line-up is more than capable of overcoming any deficiencies in this area. Still the team to beat.

I still think the side most likely to tip them over in a final is Sri Lanka. The win over India impressed me – they had the worst of it (losing the toss and batting first), and it wasn’t their stars who got them out of a tricky position early on, it was their young guns. A balanced bowling attack, a reasonable fielding side – yep, they’re the main dangers.

I’m not writing off South Africa but I just feel they’ll find a way to cock it up somehow, like they always do. The best way they can proceed in this competition is to get on a roll as they’re a side who plays best with a swagger in their step – so their first game against Sri Lanka is crucial. Win that, they have Ireland and Bangladesh after that, and look out the rest.

Looking into the crystal ball, the semis will possibly be NZ v Aus and SAF v SL. I’d plump for an Aus v SL final and ask me at a later date who will win the thing. Unfortunately, there’s not much value in the winner’s market – the value in this comp is to assess pitch/ground conditions quickly and bet accordingly during the game.

World Cup Winner (Betfair):

Australia $2.56
South Africa $6.20
Sri Lanka $6.20 (the only bet worth considering)
New Zealand $7.80
West Indies $10
England $16
Bangladesh $170
Ireland $760

Weekend Wrap

Excuse me while I blow my own trumpet for a sec, but I’m still on cloud nine after the most profitable weekend I’ve had in a long time, although a 100% strike rate was skittled when the Crusaders scored after the final whistle sinking the Stormers at +20.5 points. Any feelings at being ripped off quickly disappeared when the Lions roared back at home where some kind soul had given me $3.10 on the match odds (and I also had given $1.50 on the Canes to cover my arse on the draw). That coupled with the Blues winning by more than 17 gave me a Meatloaf weekend (2 out of 3 ain’t bad) and +8.23 pt profit (+27.01 for the Super 14 YTD).

However most of the fat wallet came courtesy of people realising far too late that Sri Lanka were going to beat India at the Cricket World Cup early Sat a.m. NZL time, India remaining favourites until they were 5 down in the run chase. The in-play markets that I have been involved in so far during this World Cup have been characterised by price swings that remind me of what it was like 3 or 4 years ago. To give a couple of examples (relying on a less than accurate memory):

India were around $1.65 at the start of the run chase. First over is a maiden – price goes out to $1.75. A boundary gets hit in the second over – back down to $1.65. Typical of the over-reaction on what I term “micro” events regularly seen over the last couple of weeks.

Yet when Tendulkar goes out – India’s price goes out from $1.80 to $2.40 before settling at around $2.00 after a few minutes. So a key wicket sees a price change of 20 ticks while a maiden over sees a price change of 10 ticks. Brilliant stuff – long may it continue.

More about the cricket tomorrow – the Super 14 is into its second half and already people are saying the final 4 is more or less sorted and no-one will crack the teams in those positions. Think again people. I’ve only checked the last 4 years, but the top 4 after round 8 (and Round 7 when it was the Super 12) did not provide all 4 semifinalists. 2005 provided the most impressive turnaround, with the Bulls languishing in 8th place (out of 12) with 5 rounds to go and 9 points off the pace – they ended up 3rd after the round-robin (swapping places with the Highlanders who were 3rd but ended up 8th).

And where do I get such information? – a plug for one of the better websites I have found, an expat Brit living in NZ has a superb website for test rugby and Super 14 results – go to http://www.lassen.co.nz/pickandgo.php

While the Bulls are possibly the most vulnerable, don’t discount the Sharks heading south faster than a migrating gannet – I haven’t seen their game from the weekend (too busy watching South Africa lose to Australia in another sport), but the reports I’ve seen suggest they didn’t handle at all being behind on the scoreboard for once. If their road trip gets off to a rocky start in Perth at the weekend, the remainder of their season will be a tricky test of their composure and confidence.

The Super 14 next weekend has probably the best lot of games from a punting point of view for a while; it will be interesting to see the prices the TAB puts out for the Force/Sharks, Hurricanes/Bulls, and Lions/Brumbies in particular. Even the Highlanders/Cheetahs and Blues/Chiefs might provide some opportunities – the only “dud” game probably being the Tahs v Crusaders. A week where I'm preparing early as I'm half expecting "false" prices to come out.

One thing I do expect is more upsets – so far this year only 30 favourites at the tote have won (out of 52 games) and if it wasn’t for a late Stephen Donald penalty we would have had two teams winning coming off 30-point thrashings the week before. One of the main things to bear in mind with the Super 14 is there are some teams whose performance is inconsistent from week to week – frustrating for fans but a potential goldmine for punters.

S14 Week 8

A significant week with plenty of focus on the returning All Blacks, and for me what affect their return would have on betting markets. I think there’s money to be made this weekend, so here goes:

BLUES v WARATAHS

Normally when sides approach $8 in head-to-head markets, I start to get interested. But not tonight. If the Blues don’t win this by plenty then they would have performed poorly. When teams string together a few mediocre performances in a row (as the Waratahs have done), it’s not a good look – lack of confidence / problems behind the scenes? Who knows, and as they’re Australians, who cares. In fact, I’m seriously contemplating backing the Blues with the points start (17.5 on Betfair) – something I usually avoid with such a large number, but I can’t see how the Tahs can come within 20 points.

MP: Blues $1.16 Tahs $8 Draw $80
NZ TAB: Blues $1.08 Tahs $7
Betfair: Blues $1.12 Tahs $9.40 Draw $55

HIGHLANDERS v BULLS

Hardest game of the weekend to pick – I’m sitting it out although the Highlanders are perhaps a little short on the tote.

MP: High $1.82 Bull $2.35 Draw $40
TAB: High $1.65 Bull $2.20 (opened 1.70 / 2.10)
BF: High $1.68 Bull $2.44 Draw $28

CRUSADERS v STORMERS

Richie, Dan and Co should be strong enough to beat the visitors, but personally I will be surprised if it’s a thrashing. Thus, the points start of 20.5 on Betfair is where I’ll be plonking some dough – hopefully the Stormers have learnt from the Bulls how NOT to play in ChCh and will do enough to keep within 20 points.

MP: Saders $1.16 Storm $8 Draw $80
TAB: Saders $1.06 Storm $8
BF: Saders $ 1.08 Storm $14 Draw $55

REDS v CHIEFS

Some weird prices around the traps for this one – the NZ TAB opened up on Monday with the Reds at $3.30, while some overseas bookies had them $4.50+. While everyone bar the most one-eyed supporters in Brisbane expect the Chiefs to win, the Reds have been a lot better at home and at least the number of beds in the MASH tent hasn’t increased during the week. Perhaps looking through rose-tinted glasses, but I’m not expecting a thrashing. No bet at the prices.

MP: Reds $3.47 Chief $1.43 Draw $50
TAB: Reds $3.75 Chief $1.25 (opened 3.30 / 1.30)
BF: Reds $4.10 Chief $4.10 Draw $29

SHARKS v BRUMBIES

Prices look about right – anything else apart from a comfortable home win will be a surprise.

MP: Shark $1.33 Brumb $4.35 Draw $50
TAB: Shark $1.25 Brumb $3.50 (opened 1.28 / 3.50)
BF: Shark $1.30 Brumb $4.20 Draw $26

LIONS v HURRICANES

Two thrashings on the road in NZ for the Lions and the Canes get their AB’s back. One-way traffic right? I’m not so sure – now that the Lions are back home, I think this game will be reasonably close and at the prices worth a tickle.

MP: Lion $2.41 Canes $1.79 Draw $40
TAB: Lion $2.85 Canes $1.40 (opened 2.50 / 1.50)
BF: Lion $2.92 Canes $1.55 Draw $28

S14 Injury List Week 8

BLUES – 1 Taumoepeau (calf), 11 Tuitavake (hamstring)
CHIEFS - 4 Gibbes (calf, Week 9+), 5 Robinson (calf, Week 10+), 6 Bates (ankle, doubtful), 13 Kahui (shoulder, Week 10+), 15 Anesi (neck - season), 15 Muliaina (foot - season), 20 Nutbrown (elbow - season)
HURRICANES - 17 Fairbrother (shoulder - season), 21 Nonu (shin, Week 9)
CRUSADERS - none
HIGHLANDERS – 21 Hore (ribs), 22 Zampach (broken foot), 22 Clare (broken leg)
WARATAHS - 4 Kanaar (knee - season), 5 Vickerman (knee - season?), 7 Waugh (ankle – season)
BRUMBIES – 4 Campbell (stress fracture foot, Week 12), 6 Heenan (off season surgery - return unknown), 10 Larkham (chest, doubtful), 12 Fairbanks (head knock doubtful), 13 Mortlock (broken hand - season), 14 Rathbone (foot doubtful), 16 Palavi (neck - retired), 21 Carraro (broken hand)
REDS - 1 Holmes (shoulder - season), 2 Hardman (broken hand), 3 Blake (ankle – season), 5 McMeniman (ankle - Week 10), 9 Cordingley (foot surgery, Week ?), 10 Barnes, 12 Andrew Brown (punctured lung, Week ?), 14 Veratau (returned last week), 15 Latham (knee - season), 15 Schifcofske (hand, Week 10 or possible this week), 16 Moore (returned last week), 17 Coutts (shoulder - season), 17 Warren (neck), 17 Mathieson (neck), 19 McVerry (ankle), 19 AJ Gilbert (shoulder), 20 Genia (hip)
FORCE (BYE) - 3 Takiari, 6 Pusey (ankle), 14 Staniforth
BULLS - 12 Olivier (knee, Week 9), 13 JP Nel (suspended, Week 11), 15 Roets (knee, Week 11), 16 Ralepelle (knee – season), 17 Gerber, 17b Bands (calf, Week 11), 18 Dlulane (neck - season), 19 Spies (knee, Week 11)
CHEETAHS (BYE) – 2 Strauss (shoulder - season), 4 Duncan (ankle, returned last week), 4 Nel (knee, Week 12), 5 Pieterse (broken foot - season), 12 Goodes (off season surgery, not fit), 15 Fortuin (returned last week), 17 CJ Van der Linde (calf, probable season)
LIONS - 3 McKenzie (return unknown), 4 Grobler (shoulder possible return), 14 Willemse (return unknown), 15 Rose (shoulder - season)
SHARKS – 5 Muller (neck, doubtful), 15 Montgomery (thigh, Week 9), 20 Mathie (?)
STORMERS – 3 Andrews (fractured nose), 8 Van Niekerk (knee - Week 10), 11 Jantjes, 11 Uys, 15 Russell (doubtful), 16 Liebenburg (broken hand), 22 Seconds

Impressive

In between numerous dozes on the couch managed to catch most of the NZ v Kenya game. Someone slap me - I think we have half a chance to win the damn thing.

Halftime report Pt 2

HIGHLANDERS 3-3 16pts (pre-season prediction 4-9 bottom 3)

Every man and his dog north of Dunedin under-rate the Highlanders and while I usually don’t fall into this trap I thought with their home-grown talent this year they would fail to fire. To give them credit, they are making the most of their limited playing roster and while semifinalists still seems a touch unrealistic, don’t write them off completely. They still have five home games left, admittedly a few of them against tough opponents, and they could/should win more than they lose from here on in.

One thing I do know, the TAB never rate them (or they never get money from the punting public on them) and are always a team to look out for when the prices come out on Mondays.

LIONS 4-3 16pts (4-9 and not the wooden spoon)

Yep, I thought they’d cause a few upsets this year although the last two weeks may indicate they’ve done their dash. Now back home they might win a couple more and finish mid-table which is higher than 99% of us thought.

BRUMBIES 3-4 14pts (10-3 home semi)

Now where’s that humble pie again? I got one thing right; they will be at home for the semis – just watching on TV rather than on the paddock. Upon reflection, I don’t think I was that out with my thoughts – rewind back to Week 1 and they were the most impressive out of the blocks, but a couple of last-minute losses, injuries to key players and poor goal-kicking has really cost them. Like Mortlock, their season is gone although ironically once they’re out of the hunt of the playoffs (which should be this weekend), they may start to play better and beat a few teams higher up the ladder when back at home.

CANES 3-4 14pts (6-7 mid-table)

I think they have one loss too many before the cavalry arrive this weekend to make the playoffs. It must be frustrating being a Wellingtonian – winning the important games early on and then stuffing it up against the Stormers and Force. They are (well, were) certainly a team to avoid betting-wise as you’d never know what team would turn up. There is a small chance they can make a run for the semis but they have to beat the Crusaders in Christchurch. Good luck.

STORMERS 3-4 14pts (6-7 mid-table)

With a couple of wins on their road trip, a team to keep half an eye on – a bit like the Highlanders in that you don’t think they have the team to go anywhere, but once back home they could make a run for it like the Sharks did last year.

CHIEFS 1-1-4 12pts (9-4 possible semifinalists)

Oops. Next.

TAHS 1-1-4 8pts (8-5 missing the semis)

The wheels have really fallen off this year, and their run-in sees them play all 5 NZ teams and two niggly Oz derbies (Brumbies, Reds). Blues this weekend; Crusaders the next – a friendly word of advice for rugby-loving Sydneysiders. Consider moving city, even country – it’s about to get very, very ugly.

REDS 1-6 6pts (3-10 bottom 3)

If they weren’t Aussies I’d almost feel sorry for them with the horrible run of injuries they’ve had. Send them the wooden spoon now, although if they can beat the Tahs in Sydney they have half a chance of shipping it down south.

SUMMARY

It’s pretty hard to see how the Blues, Sharks and Crusaders will miss the playoffs, which leaves one spot open – who will fill it?

Personally I make the Bulls favourites to get there, ahead of the Highlanders and Force, with the Canes and Stormers not completely out of it. Games between these five teams, starting with the Highlanders v Bulls this weekend, become rather significant.

However it’s all immaterial. The Blues will have a home semi, a home final, and a victory parade down Queen St. :-)

Super 14 Wrap

Pass around the oranges – its halftime. 7 weeks down, 7 to go and let’s have a bit of fun at my expense by dredging out those pre-season predictions and updating them. So without further ado, in current table order:

SHARKS 6-0 25pts (pre-season prediction 6-7 mid-table)

Yes, well. First slice of humble pie although I’m still not convinced the Sharks are genuine title contenders and they could fall down the ladder on their road trip. But it would be a major surprise to see them fall out of the top 4 completely, so that’s one playoff spot taken. Will be interesting to see if they can secure a home semi-final, which may not be that imposing for whomever the opposition are as the heat and humidity will not be such a big factor in May. On the other hand, I have a sneaky feeling we’ve yet to see them play at their best, so for me the jury is still out until they’re on the road.

BLUES 5-1 23pts (10-3 home semi)

Thankfully I got one right. They’ve performed as I expected they would and they’ll finish 1 or 2 and get a home semi, although they’ll lose a couple of games between now and then. But don’t panic Jafas, the Super 14 trophy is coming home to its rightful resting place.

FORCE 4-1-2 21pts (5-8)

Bashing up on a 14-man Reds team with 14 injuries does not make the Force a title contender. Hopefully they’re enjoying their lofty position in the ladder, as after the bye they have the Sharks at home, then the Crusaders, Chiefs and Brumbies away. Not to mention the Blues in the last round. Mid-table with more than 5 wins yes, semi-finalists no.

BULLS 4-3 18pts (9-4 losing semifinalists)

Fark this team p!sses me off at times. A two year-old baby could have implemented their game plan better against the Crusaders last weekend. And reminds me of a similar totally inept performance against the Blues last year.

Which is their problem. One of the better forward packs (if not exactly mobile), a world-class halfback, decent first-five – a simple game plan designed to their strengths would beat just about anybody. As they showed against the Brumbies.

So why play loose allowing turnovers and kick the ball down the throats of the best counter-attacking team around? The Bulls seriously lack intelligence at times, and until they grow a few more brain cells will never win a Super 14 title, despite having the playing roster to do so. They’ll possibly sneak into the playoffs in fourth spot, but that’s the end of the road.

CRUSADERS 3-3 17pts (8-5 somewhere from 3rd to 6th)

The Crusaders are where I thought they’d be, but their playoff chances are significantly enhanced by bonus points and the inconsistencies shown by other teams. I’ll have to retract my earlier statement they’ll miss the semis – they’ll make it but will have to win the title the hard way away from hone. Difficult, but not impossible.

CHEETAHS 3-1-3 17pts (3-10 bottom 3)

They’re about to embark on their road trip and will drop down the ladder faster than someone swimming with concrete boots. Maybe not bottom 3, but not far off it.

(to be continued…)

Weekend Wrap

Apologies for being a day late - a friend of ours lost a niece that she was very close to in a car accident and to be honest I wasn't in the mood to churn out a few meaningless words.

The news of Pakistan's coach Bob Woolmer also saddened me. I'll miss his blog entries on Cricinfo which provided some useful insights into aspects of the game that this cricket punter isn't an expert in, and it's a shame (to put it mildly) he leaves the planet on such a bum note - a day after his side got knocked out of he World Cup.

Pakistan's exit and Bangladesh's win over India probably won't be the last surprises we see in this tournament. From my wallet's perspective, I'm a bit pissed about these upsets as (a) I missed them, and (b) I have a gut feeling Kenya will win another game (and thus they won't be at such juicy odds) and gawd parlease make sure it's the Poms, not us.

So I'm heartened to read in the paper Captain Fleming, when discussing these major v minnow games, saying "I think teams are falling short because they're not paying enough attention to the quality of player or the type of side they're coming up against." Seems the last few days the Kiwis have also been picking the brains of the former Kenyan coach, so it does seem that warm-up loss to the Bangladeshis was a good wake-up call that should avoid complacency tomorrow.

Compare that to England's approach. Cue the scene at their hotel hours after their loss to the Blackcaps. "Right luds, even though we got spanked and I got a golden duck, LET'S GO AND GET PISSED!"

Yeah good one Freddie. Chalk up another name for the Night Owl list. When sporting contests occur in the evening these well-paid human beings have half an excuse (just) for keeping late hours but not this tournament which have 9.30 a.m. starts for every game. And for the non-sportspeople out there, sleep 2 nights before is just as important as the sleep the night before any sporting contest. So getting on the piss in the middle of two games in the space of three days is not a good move. Roll on England v Kenya.

And let's throw a brickbat at Ian Botham as well, whose opinion is "the mistake was getting caught". Errr, no - the mistake was getting on the turps. Perhaps he should go and run a judicial system somewhere (Zimbabwe?) where committing a crime is not the mistake but getting caught is.

It's rather ironic (don't you think?) a game which for decades has had image problems with the small number of nations who actually play cricket seriously produces more upsets at their World Cup than others we could perhaps compare it with. Would Spain beat Scotland at Rugby? Cook Islands upsetting South Africa in netball? Not in a million years. Yep, roll on England v Kenya - and one last brickbat to Sky TV here in NZ who would rather show Eurosport News in the wee small hours than some of these group matches (but would quite happily show Spain v Scotland and Cook Islands v South Africa).

Next on the list - CONGRATULATIONS!

Yes, to Soccer NZ and the good people in Wellington you now have a professional sporting team (other than the Hurricanes) to clap and cheer with the news that they secured the licence for a team in the Australian A League. Good stuff - no, really. You now have the chance to prove the debacle known as the Knights - a team with probably the worst record of any professional sporting team on Earth - was all Auckland's fault.

To be honest, good riddance. We already have the underperforming Warriors and Breakers playing at half empty stadiums (well, the basketballers would be if we had a decent indoor venue up here). Having the Knights was like having a kick in the goolies when on the ropes in a boxing match. The noise you heard down there wasn't a lahar rushing down Ruapehu - it was a collective sigh of relief from a million people getting rid of the biggest sporting embarrassment since ... Freddie Flintoff.

I can see the slogans now - Wellington; a vibrant city of politicians and soccer supporters. Should do wonders for your tourism numbers.

OK OK the Warriors may (MAY) have a decent season this year but one win doth not make a team playoff bound. And a win over the Broncos without Lockyer won't prove much either. Let's see how they go on the road. And while it's on my mind, whoever is organising Fight For Life this year should put it on the night before the Warriors v Souths game and get Eric Watson and Russell Crowe in the ring. Now that would be worth watching.

Super 14 thoughts up later in the day.

Super 14 Week 7 Preview

Another unappetising round of matches from a betting point of view, with all bar one involving strong home favourites that I find around the right price. So short and sweet:

CHIEFS v LIONS

May not be the cakewalk the prices suggest, but the Chiefs should have a decided advantage once past first phase. Can't see past a Chiefs win, but if it's tight and boring the Lions do have a sniff.

MP: Chiefs $1.33 Lions $4.35 Draw $50
TAB: Chiefs $1.28 Lions $3.50
BF: Chiefs $1.33 Lions $4.10 Draw $28

FORCE v REDS

The Force has drifted with the news Henjak and Giteau are out, which is an over-reaction. It conveniently overlooks on the other side 13 squad members are in the MASH tent, and they'll miss Barnes just as much as the Force will miss Giteau. So long as Andrew Walker is kept in check, the home side should romp in.

MP: Force $1.41 Reds $3.70 Draw $50
TAB: Force $1.40 Reds $2.85 (opened 1.28 / 3.50)
BF: Force $1.45 Reds $3.30 Draw $26

CRUSADERS v BULLS

Fark the Bulls p!ss me off sometimes. WTF is Matfield doing on the bench? The Bulls could do everyone (including themselves) a big favour by giving this game 100% as a loss here put the Saders in danger of missing the playoffs. No matter what noises are made to the contrary, it smacks of we'll target the other 2 games in NZ to win and take what comes with this one.

At times the Bulls pack looked disinterested against the Tahs and in some ways their win last week was flattering - based on moments of individual brilliance and an inept opposition. I hope I'm wrong, but this game looks to me done and dusted - Saders by plenty.

MP: Saders $1.33 Bulls $4.35 Draw $50
TAB: Saders $1.35 Bulls $3.00
BF: Saders $1.38 Bulls 3.10 Draw $26

WARATAHS v STORMERS

I'm assuming the Tahs cannot play any worse than they did last week. If they do, I suppose they'll lose again, but I like the changes they have made and any reasonable execution of basic rugby skills should see them win.

MP: Tahs $1.43 Storm $3.57 Draw $50
TAB: Tahs $1.45 Storm $2.60
BF: Tahs $1.47 Storm $3.15 Draw $27

CHEETAHS v BRUMBIES

The one game where the bookies think there might be a contest, while I just have little confidence about either side winning - a bit like the Force Canes game last week. If I had to get off the fence, I can see the Brumbies sneaking it if they can kick their goals (they're running at under 60% this season - the worst side in the comp) but at the prices it's a sit and watch.

MP: Cheet $2.11 Brumb $2.06 Draw $25
TAB: Cheet $1.90 Brumb $1.85 (opened 1.85 / 1.90)
BF: Cheet $2.00 Brumb $2.04 Draw $17

SHARKS v HURRICANES

The last game is the only one where I think the prices may be a bit wrong. If the Crusaders, Waratahs, Bulls (all semifinalists last year) and Highlanders can't win at Durban, why on earth would anyone think the hot and cold Canes can? They would have to be very hot (and they will - it's steaming in Durban at the moment) and given they have trouble catching the ball at places like Palmerston North, I can't see them hanging onto the piece of soap it becomes in the humidity at Durban.

Along with the Blues, the Sharks have been the most consistent team week to week; if they hit $1.60 at Betfair (for some reason they're drifting) I'm in.

MP: Shark $1.45 Cane $3.51 Draw $40
TAB: Shark $1.50 Cane $2.50
BF: Shark $1.57 Cane $2.92 Draw $27

S14 Injury List Week 7

BLUES (BYE) – 11 Tuitavake (hamstring)
CHIEFS - 4 Gibbes (calf, Week 8+), 6 Bates (ankle, Week 8), 13 Kahui (shoulder, Week 8+), 13 Ta’auso (reserves), 15 Anesi (neck - season), 15 Muliaina (ankle - season), 21 Lavea (starting)
HURRICANES - 17 Fairbrother (shoulder - season), 21 Nonu (shin, Week 9)
CRUSADERS - 12 Tipoki (calf strain, 1 week)
HIGHLANDERS (BYE) – 21 Hore (ribs), 22 Zampach (broken foot), 22 Clare (broken leg)
WARATAHS - 4 Kanaar (knee - season), 5 Vickerman (knee - season?), 7 Waugh (ankle – season), 16 Polota-Nau (elbow, Week 7?)
BRUMBIES – 4 Campbell (stress fracture foot, Week 12), 6 Heenan (off season surgery - return unknown), 10 Larkham (chest, Week 8), 16 Palavi (neck - retired), 21 Carraro (broken hand)
REDS - 1 Holmes (shoulder - season), 3 Blake (ankle – season), 5 McMeniman (ankle - Week 8), 9 Cordingley (foot surgery, Week ?), 12 Andrew Brown (punctured lung, Week ?), 14 Veratau (hip), 15 Latham (knee - season), 15 Schifcofske (hand, Week 10), 16 Moore (knee - Week 8), 17 Coutts (shoulder - season), 17 Warren (neck), 17 Mathieson (neck), 19 McVerry (ankle), 19 AJ Gilbert (shoulder)
FORCE - 3 Takiari, 6 Pusey (ankle), 14 Staniforth
BULLS - 2 Botha (hmastring - doubtful), 11 Habana (hamstring - doubtful), 12 Olivier (knee – return unknown), 13 JP Nel (suspended, Week 11), 15 Roets (knee, Week 11), 16 Ralepelle (knee – season), 17a Gerber (arm fracture, Week 11), 17b Bands (calf, Week 11), 18 Dlulane (neck - season), 19 Spies (knee, Week 11), 22 Welsh
CHEETAHS – 2 Strauss (shoulder - season), 4 Duncan (ankle, return unknown), 4 Nel (knee, Week 12), 5 Pieterse (broken foot - season), 12 Goodes (off season surgery, not fit), 15 Fortuin (off season surgery, not fit), 17 CJ Van der Linde (calf, probable season)
LIONS - 3 McKenzie (return unknown), 4 Grobler (shoulder - Week 8), 14 Willemse (return unknown), 15 Rose (shoulder, returned home)
SHARKS – 15 Montgomery (thigh, Week 8), 20 Mathie (?)
STORMERS – 3 Andrews (fractured nose), 8 Van Niekerk (knee - Week 10), 11 Jantjes, 15 Russell, 16 Liebenburg (broken hand), 17 Harris

Cricket World Cup Preview

Right, let’s get the important thing out of the way – I don’t have a farkin’ clue who will win the World Cup. Anybody that thinks so-and-so will win IMHO are talking out of their rear end. Why? Because with a number of brand new grounds and re-laid pitch blocks on some of the old ones, not even Nostradamus can predict how the next 6 weeks will pan out.

Anyone who has read this blog from post one will know I look at the pitches and weather just as much as the teams when considering upcoming cricket games. And in this tournament, pitches and the weather will have a significant part to play, that much is definite. Weather? While it may not be the rainy season, you can expect rainfall for the next 6 weeks to be above zero mm and Messrs Duckworth and Lewis may come into play. Thankfully with the scheduling of reserve days and games not starting afresh if they are used, a “No result” stuffing up the competition should be avoided.

But it’s the pitches that need close inspection. The four venues for the group stages are not so important, principally because only one meaningful match is being staged at each venue. However by the time we reach the Super Eight stage, that changes. And it is here where there are sizeable question marks.

The Super Eight stage is being held at two completely new venues, another rebuilt after Mother Nature vented its fury, and a renovated stadium complete with new pitch block. The first half sees games played at the two new venues, Sir Viv Richards Stadium at Antigua (where there have been undulations identified in the pitch square) and Providence Stadium in Guyana (where the square didn’t seed as well as hoped). Brilliant. The second half uses venues in Grenada and Barbados, where there is a bit more confidence surrounding conditions.

So while I don’t have a farkin’ clue who is going to win this thing, I do expect the results in warm-up games and in the group stages to mean jack shit. Predictions that on the basis of a few collapses by SAF, NZ and WI in warm-up games this will be a bowler-dominated tournament are rubbish. It may turn out that way, but we won’t know until the eight remaining teams are in Antigua and Guyana. And in my reading, Kensington Oval in Barbados (which will also host the final) has more chance of being a run feast ground than a minefield.

Teams? Despite their recent tumble from Federer-class (although even he lost yesterday), Australia remains the side to beat and you can pretty much throw a blanket over the other 7 real contenders. I don’t read too much into SAF’s recent form (NZ’s too for that matter) because teams that run up win streaks at home need to be taken with a pinch of salt. It is an open competition, not so much because of the losses Australia has suffered, but due to the significant doubt over the conditions teams will play in (will ball dominate bat? Or the other way around? And will it be different from venue to venue? How much advantage will there be in winning the toss?).

Because of this doubt, my approach to the World Cup has been, and remains not to take any position at all in the winner’s market. Personally I believe there will be enough opportunities to profit from in-play trading during games and that’s where my energies will be concentrated.

If I had to get off the fence, Aus would be my pick to win, but at $3.20 on Betfair no thank you. I expect the South Africans to somehow stuff it up again, and if I didn’t have to take conditions into account, Sri Lanka is in my mind the main danger. India will leak too many runs in the field, and the remaining four teams who are all paying over $10 are a little over-priced as despite question marks over their consistency, all they have to do is win enough games to qualify for the semis and then win 2 games on the trot. Any of the eight sides can do that.

Weekend Wrap

Should we be surprised, in a surreal season of Super 14 rugby, a team with two one-point losses beats a team with two one-point wins, by one point. And what is it with sideline conversions? Three already this year to win games, in a season where goalkickers are actually down on their success rates from previous years.

I'm guessing not too many saw the final stages of the Force - Hurricanes game, but the jubilation from the players and crowd at finally breaking their home duck was a sight to behold; you'd be excused for thinking they had just won the whole friggin' competition. And no doubt they'll turn up in their droves for more next week when they take on the Reds ...

... which brings me to a point I wish to make about crowd numbers. Remember the kerfuffle last year when it was initially announced that 22 All Blacks would miss the first half of the Super 14 season? News Ltd made threatening see-you-in-court noises to the NZRU about the potential negative economic consequences. Waratahs coach McKenzie was also vocal in the media about the impact on the competition.

Fast forward to today, and this piece from the Sydney Morning Herald. In Tah-Tah land, crowd numbers are dropping, and the reason ain't nothing to do with the standard of opposition, but their own team's woeful performances. Excuse me while I let out a little snigger. Perhaps News Ltd should be looking at suing the Waratahs for masquerading as a Super 14 footy team.

Fact is, the absence of the 22 ABs has meant diddly-squat to the Super 14 economy. Crowds go to see teams winning, no matter who is playing. I'd argue the absence of Messrs McCaw and Co has actually been a positive influence - it has made the season a little more unpredictable and average Joe Public in Durban, Perth and (gosh) Auckland are starting to think their team may have a chance of doing well this year. And I'd bet TV viewing numbers ain't down either. Time for an apology from News Ltd - but I won't be holding my breath.

Next on my list of annoyances is teams refusing a kick at goal to draw a game. A few weeks ago, the Bulls turned down kickable penalties to go for the win against the Force and came up empty-handed. The extra competition point the draw would have given them may turn out to be crucial come play-off time. And in the weekend, Wales couldn't face the ignominy of a draw against Italy so decided to go for the win - trouble is the whistle blew for full-time. While there is no question the ref erred in not allowing the line-out to take place, when you're three points down and get a penalty 22m out in front of the sticks with 10 seconds to go, karma is telling you the game is not yours to win, so settle for the draw instead. One wonders at the scenes had Lote Tuqiri been born Welsh.

On the punting front, a very quiet weekend - I did end up backing both the Bulls and Cheetahs so made some newspaper money (Week 6: +0.37; Season +17.77). That is all about to change - the small matter of a Cricket World Cup is about to start and I'll have a preview up sometime tomorrow.

Super 14 Week 6

Apologies for the late post - a trip to the Hamilton casino being the culprit, which provided an interesting postscript to the Night Owls posting as I was joined at the poker tables by a few tennis players from the Futures tournament going on there this week - despite them all being involved in a doubles semi-final today ...

Anyway, onto the rugby, where I probably won't be betting this weekend:

HIGHLANDERS v REDS

What on earth were the NZ TAB thinking opening the Highlanders up at $1.45 on Monday? One of the few occasions I've regretted not having a TAB account, and I should have opened one up. They are now down to $1.35 which I consider the right price, as I can't see how the Reds can win this game - unless the Highlanders throw in a shocker.

MP: High $1.33 Reds $4.35 Draw $50
TAB: High $1.35 Reds $3.00
Betfair: High $1.38 Reds $3.75 Draw $26

BRUMBIES v STORMERS

Based on my theory that teams in the Super 14 rarely put two bad performances together in a row, I expect the Brumbies with Mortlock back to be able to catch the ball and pass it this week, and hopefully they've learned from the Hurricanes that when passing, give it to a teammate rather than the opposition. I've probably assessed the Brumbies a bit short, but it's a game I don't want to get involved in.

MP: Brum $1.43 Storm $3.57 Draw $50
TAB: Brum $1.40 Storm $2.80
BF: Brum $1.42 Storm $3.10 Draw $30

FORCE v HURRICANES

God knows how to price this game up with Jekyll and Hyde playing at Perth for the first time. Blair Stewart comes in for Gopperth which I think may be a plus, as is Nonu on the bench. Throw a dart at the board to predict this game - I think the Canes will get up but without enough confidence to throw money at them.

MP: Force $2.15 Canes $2.00 Draw $29
TAB: Force $1.95 Canes $1.80
BF: Force $1.95 Canes $2.00 Draw $30

BLUES v LIONS

Anyones predicting this as a top of the table clash preseason would have been put in a straitjacket. The Lions bubble will burst tomorrow night, expecting a similar game to last week's at Eden Park where it might take a while, but the Blues should come home strong.

MP: Blue $1.25 Lion $5.41 Draw $67
TAB: Blue $1.11 Lion $6.00
BF: Blue $1.20 Lion $5.60 Draw $32

WARATAHS v BULLS

The Bulls impressed me last week by playing reasonably smart rugby, something I never trust them to do. If they get the same help from the Tahs as they did from the Brumbies, expect the same result. This is one game I'm almost tempted to bet - the Bulls will be licking their chops at the forward battle where I expect them to dominate, so if (a big if) they do the same things as last week (grind it out, play the percentages) they should win.

MP: Tahs $1.90 Bulls $2.22 Draw $40
TAB: Tahs $1.62 Bulls $2.20
BF: Tahs $1.72 Bulls $2.38 Draw $27

CHEETAHS v SHARKS

I smell a rat in this one. Natal don't have a great record at Bloemfontein in the Currie Cup and the Cheetahs won this fixture last year in Durban (27-26). On recent performances you'd expect the Sharks to win but sometimes with SAF derbies you can throw the formbook out the window. I'm sitting it out, but the Cheetahs are almost at the point to tempt me.

MP: Cheet $2.22 Shark $1.92 Draw $33
TAB: Cheet $2.25 Shark $1.60
BF: Cheet $2.48 Shark $1.71 Draw $25

Super 14 Injury List Week 6

Anybody who plays prop could probably get a gig in Brisbane at the mo' - although whether you'd want to is a different matter. With all the media comment on how badly the Aussie teams are doing, a perusal of this list from week to week partly gives you answers - the Reds, Tahs and to a lesser extent the Brumbies have all had problems and the only Oz team that hasn't - the Force - are performing at (possibly above) expectations.

The Super 14 tests a team's depth in their squad. I'm also starting to wonder about pre-season fitness programmes as year after year a team like the Crusaders seem to get through without major dramas on the injury front and it can't be just co-incidence.

BLUES – 11 Tuitavake (hamstring)
CHIEFS (BYE) - 4 Gibbes (calf, Week 7?), 13 Kahui (shoulder), 13 Ta’auso (neck), 15 Anesi (neck - season), 21 Lavea (knee ligaments, Week 8?)
HURRICANES - 13 Umaga, 17 Fairbrother (shoulder - season)
CRUSADERS (BYE) - none
HIGHLANDERS – 11 Waqaseaduadua, 21 Hore (ribs), 22 Zampach (broken foot), 22 Clare (broken leg)
WARATAHS - 1 Dunning, 4 Kanaar (knee - season), 5 Vickerman (knee - season?), 7 Waugh (ankle – season), 16 Polota-Nau (elbow, Week 7?)
BRUMBIES – 4 Campbell (stress fracture foot, Week 12), 6 Heenan (off season surgery - return unknown), 10 Larkham (chest, Week 8), 13 Mortlock, 14 Rathbone (possible), 16 Palavi (neck - retired), 21 Carraro (broken hand)
REDS - 1 Holmes (shoulder - season), 3 Blake (ankle surgery next week – season), 5 McMeniman (ankle - Week 8), 9 Cordingley (foot surgery, Week 7), 12 Andrew Brown (punctured lung, Week 7) 12 Hynes, 14 Veratau (hip), 15 Latham (knee - season), 15 Schifcofske (hand, Week 10), 16 Moore (knee - Week 8), 17 Coutts (shoulder - season), 17 Warren (neck), 17 Mathieson (neck), 22 Johansson
FORCE - none
BULLS - 12 Olivier (knee – return unknown), 15 Roets (knee, Week 11), 16 Ralepelle (knee – season), 17a Gerber (arm fracture, Week 11), 17b Bands (calf, Week 8?), 18 Dlulane (neck - season), 19 Spies (knee, Week 11), 22 Welsh (hamstring).
CHEETAHS – 1 du Randt (knee, doubtful), 2 Strauss (shoulder - season), 3 Du Plessis (shoulder, doubtful), 4a Duncan (ankle, return unknown), 4b Nel (knee, Week 12), 5 Pieterse (broken foot - season?), 12 Goodes (off season surgery, not fit), 15 Fortuin (off season surgery, not fit)
LIONS - 3 McKenzie (return unknown), 14 Willemse (return unknown)
SHARKS – 12 Barritt (hand, doubtful), 14 Steyn, 15 Montgomery (thigh, 1 or 2 weeks), 20 Mathie (?)
STORMERS – 8 Van Niekerk (knee - Week 7+), 11 Jantjes (returned home), 15 Russell (concussion), 16 Liebenburg (returned home), 17 Harris (ankle), 22 Seconds, reserve outside backs Booi and Chavhanga injured.

Night Owls

The news that Highlander midfield back Jason Kawau got assaulted last Saturday (at 4.20 a.m.) continues a fascination I have with so-called professional sportspersons in this country who seem to have trouble sleeping.

Call me old-fashioned, but back in another lifetime when I was fit, healthy and training my arse off in the pursuit of sporting endeavour, recovery and sleep were two of the most important things in life. Boring maybe, but necessary as training (hard) with a lack of sleep usually resulted in poor training and in some cases, sickness as the body became run down.

So it's reasonably impressive that Mr Kawau, in the middle of the Super 14 season, can be shakin' and groovin' 'til all hours of the night - note I'm making the perhaps dangerous assumption here that it wasn't a team training exercise as most of his team-mates were in Auckland having just completed a lesson from the Blues earlier in the evening. And I hasten to add I'm not assuming alcohol was involved - at least on Kawau's part - if it were, I'm sure we'd hear all about it a la an Eric Rush or Mils Muliaina story.

But what is it with professional sportsman and staying up all night? I fondly remember the case of an All Black who, after a preseason game with the Crusaders in Greymouth got on the turps and turned up pissed as a fart (obviously having not gone to bed) at the start line of the Coast to Coast at 5 a.m. the next morning. Or the reasonably well-known ex-All White who is/was a poker regular at Sky City and would quite happily sit at the poker tables until 3 in the morning on a Thursday or Friday night despite having a game of soccer to play (that presumably he was being paid for) in the weekend.

As I say, it's a fascination - people paid to play sport who during their competition season seem to think peak performance is not affected by the hours they keep. Wasn't in any of the training books I read.

Weekend Review

OK, before you lot rip into me over my less than accurate previews prior to the weekend (especially ... ahem ... Hurricanes v Stormers), if we use the prices off Betfair immediately before kick-off the combination of results produced in the weekend's Super 14 was roughly a 120,000 to 1 shot. Even if we take the two draws out of the equation, getting the five remaining games correct was about 110 to 1.

Cue Twilight Zone theme music. Three South African teams winning on the road in one weekend. Two draws. The Lions winning three on the trot. The Crusaders blowing a lead after the final whistle. These things just do not happen - but it makes for a helluva interesting competition.

And if you can get it right on the punting front, a lucrative one. While backing the Force at $3 was kissing your sister stuff, the Lions and Sharks made for a nice weekend, even if the latter was a get out of jail result. Week 5 +5.77; season to date +17.40.

Right NZ readers, who is your least favourite ex-sportsperson so-called media expert commentator? For me, Mark Richardson. His latest piece in the Herald about the use of Hawkeye completely misses the point (for him, again). Comparing the use of Hawkeye in Tennis and Cricket is apples and oranges stuff - in tennis, it is used to clarify what HAS happened (i.e. a ball landing on the ground), while in cricket it is used to predict what MIGHT happen (i.e. the path of the ball if it hadn't hit the batsmen's pads).

You cannot (or shouldn't) use technology for making decisions that are predictive in nature; it's that simple, and a whole article starting with a recent controversial linecall in tennis as justification is a waste of space and reading time. I'll send him my bill.

While on the subject of tennis, shall we start a sweepstake on when Roger Federer will next lose a game?

Finally, on one of my trawls through the internet I came across a website of an American pro sports better, and found the following piece amusing:

One Sunday, my brother R.J. and I were watching NFL games on the big screens at Caesar's Palace when all of a sudden a man in the crowd jumped to his feet and yelled at the top of his lungs, "FUCK! FUCK FUCK FUCK!," and headed for the exit. He went on to yell at the TV screen showing the Patriots-Jets' game, "YOU FUCKING LOSERS! YOU COULDN'T BEAT MY FUCKING GRANDMOTHER! FUCK YOU!.....FUCK YOU!" The New England Patriots had just scored to cover the spread and seal the game. The guy had obviously bet on the New York Jets. He went on to storm out of the casino, throwing a couple more "FUCK OFFS!" and "GO FUCK YOURSELVES!" to the security guards who descended to follow him out.

The story was related as an example of immaturity that is "proof he should stay away from sportsbooks and casinos".

Actually, I disagree. Betting on sports is an emotive business and one of the few times us neanderthals known as males freely express our feelings. I've learned that a few minutes of punching holes in the wall, kicking the cat or letting forth a stream of obscenities is infinitely more preferable than moping around the house for a couple of days thinking the world has ended.

Those residing in Wellington and Christchurch take note (heh).

Super 14 Week 5 Preview

Another quiet week by the looks of it – all 7 games involve the home side starting as favourite in the betting markets, although so far this year teams in this position have paid out only 14 times out of 22. So chances are there will be an away win or two this weekend, but where?

BLUES v HIGHLANDERS

Probably not here, but my jaw did hit the ground somewhat when the TAB opened the Blues at $1.15. Although they have drifted slightly to $1.17, perhaps more realistic prices can be found overseas where they are commonly $1.20 to $1.25.

The usual situation where the underdog away team is paying too much; I’ll be surprised if the Blues don’t win as they should have far too much gas and skill in the backs but funnier things have happened in sport. I’ve managed to get a little (i.e. not enough unfortunately) nibble on the Highlanders at $7 to keep me awake tonight.

My Prices: Blues $1.42 Highlanders $3.70 Draw $40
NZ TAB: Blues $1.17 Highlanders $4.75
Betfair (best available to back): Blues $1.25 Highlanders $5.60 Draw $27

WARATAHS v FORCE

Hard to predict this one – especially as the game may get nasty as there won’t exactly be a lot of lurrrrve in the air tonight at Sydney. And throw in the curveball of Marks as referee I’m staying on the sidelines, although if someone wants to give me $3 on the Force I’ll take it.

MP: Tahs $1.67 Force $2.70 Draw $33
NZ TAB: Tahs $1.45 Force $2.65
Betfair: Tahs $1.57 Force $2.76 Draw $27

CHEETAHS v CHIEFS

Both teams have made significant changes as they deal with the short turnaround from last week. Another game which is hard to figure out – the Cheetahs certainly dropped their intensity last week and got killed at the breakdown, while the Chiefs keep finding ways to lose winning games. No bet for me.

MP: Cheetahs $1.61 Chiefs $2.86 Draw $33
NZ TAB: Cheetahs $1.55 Chiefs $2.35
Betfair: Cheetahs $1.60 Chiefs $2.80 Draw $27

HURRICANES v STORMERS

This is one game where they should head straight to the bar and forget about the 80 minutes in the middle as the result is a foregone conclusion – although I suppose there is a small possibility after their tough start the Canes may drop off the pace a little away from Westpac Stadium (the game is being played in Palmerston North). For that reason alone, it wouldn’t be the silliest idea to consider the Canes winning by 12 and under ($2.90 at the TAB) but I think I’ll pass.

MP: Canes $1.27 Stormers $5.00 Draw $67
NZ TAB: Canes $1.18 Stormers $4.50
Betfair: Canes $1.20 Stormers $5.00 Draw $29

BRUMBIES v BULLS

Geez. Anyone really want to back the Brumbies without Mortlock and Larkham? Or the Bulls who are not exactly renowned as great travellers? Normally I’d have this as a Brumbies lock but them without M and L is like the ABs without McCaw and Carter. Next.

MP: Brumbies $1.47 Bulls $3.33 Draw $50
NZ TAB: Brumbies $1.40 Bulls $2.85
Betfair: Brumbies $1.48 Bulls $3.30 Draw: $27

REDS v LIONS

Mumble grumble. Yes I’m still pissed at missing the Lions last week and like a lemming to a cliff I’ll probably be sucked into backing them at a far shorter price this week and do my dough. While the Reds have played better in their home games so far this year, I think their style of play will pose no problems for the Lions who have a decent shout at winning. If I can get $2.70 on the Pussies I’m in.

MP: Reds $1.81 Lions $2.41 Draw $30
NZ TAB: Reds $1.50 Lions $2.50
Betfair: Reds $1.65 Lions $2.64 Draw $27

SHARKS v CRUSADERS

And for the second week running the Crusaders close off the round away to a Saffer team as a slight underdog in the most interesting match-up of the weekend. Can the Sharks do what the Cheetahs couldn’t? I say YES – and having laid the Crusaders early in the week at $1.92 I’m happy with the bet. One caveat: my favourite referee Stuart Dickinson is in control of his first Super 14 match this year so the game may not be a great spectacle (translation: expect a penalty feast).

MP: Sharks $1.92 Crusaders $2.25 Draw $29
NZ TAB: Sharks $1.87 Saders $1.87
Betfair: Sharks $1.88 Saders $2.16 Draw $25

WEEK 4 REVIEW

Yes I backed the Cheetahs. Wrong (feline) animal.

Week 4: -1.94
Season to date: +11.63

Poker Update

Currently in the lull before the storm before the Cricket World Cup starts, been trying to get to the casino once a week and come home with some rent money. Last night the $1/$2 $100 buy-in game was oversubscribed so rather reluctantly I sat in on the $2/$5 $200 one instead. Reluctantly as even though I'm not out of my depth, with only $500 in the pocket you can end up with a short night if things go against you.

A few hours into it I was indeed down a couple of hundred thanks to slowplaying a hand that went wrong, and is a good illustration of why slowplaying should not always be the automatic choice when you think you're so far out in front you can't get caught.

I had been dealt As Ks (that's Ace of Spades and King of Spades for those who don't know their card deck) and got 4 callers after raising $15. Well blow me down the flop came Qs Js 3s and mentally I'm doing cartwheels while sitting there stonefaced. After it got checked around we get to see the turn (fourth card), a red 9 and someone bet $50 into the $80 pot. After one caller I decided to just call as so long as the board doesn't pair I'm home and hosed. I put the guy who bet maybe on pocket 9's so no pair on the board please dealer ...

and of course the dealer throws out the last card, a red Jack. Fuck. The two other guys checked to me and I almost checked behind but threw in $125 whereupon tricky Asian gentleman immediately went allin for $260. Double Fuck. Other guy instafolded and while I'm pretty sure Mr Tricky does indeed have a full house I'm being asked to put $140 into a $600-odd pot and I have to make my crying call to see his pocket nines, which he didn't have - he had 9J instead, but same result.

Sometimes with big hands you don't get paid, but that's still more preferable than losing money. Lesson learned. Anyway, don't cry for me NZ, I ended the night well ahead mainly thanks to Mr Fish who was more philanthropic than Bill Gates - I lost count the number of times he bought in but it was at least $1400. He just kept peeling red C notes out of his shirt pocket. God bless him. Biggest pot of the night was $2600 when two big stacks went to war on a Q93 rainbow flop - one had QQ while the other had 99. Ouch.