Halftime report Pt 2

HIGHLANDERS 3-3 16pts (pre-season prediction 4-9 bottom 3)

Every man and his dog north of Dunedin under-rate the Highlanders and while I usually don’t fall into this trap I thought with their home-grown talent this year they would fail to fire. To give them credit, they are making the most of their limited playing roster and while semifinalists still seems a touch unrealistic, don’t write them off completely. They still have five home games left, admittedly a few of them against tough opponents, and they could/should win more than they lose from here on in.

One thing I do know, the TAB never rate them (or they never get money from the punting public on them) and are always a team to look out for when the prices come out on Mondays.

LIONS 4-3 16pts (4-9 and not the wooden spoon)

Yep, I thought they’d cause a few upsets this year although the last two weeks may indicate they’ve done their dash. Now back home they might win a couple more and finish mid-table which is higher than 99% of us thought.

BRUMBIES 3-4 14pts (10-3 home semi)

Now where’s that humble pie again? I got one thing right; they will be at home for the semis – just watching on TV rather than on the paddock. Upon reflection, I don’t think I was that out with my thoughts – rewind back to Week 1 and they were the most impressive out of the blocks, but a couple of last-minute losses, injuries to key players and poor goal-kicking has really cost them. Like Mortlock, their season is gone although ironically once they’re out of the hunt of the playoffs (which should be this weekend), they may start to play better and beat a few teams higher up the ladder when back at home.

CANES 3-4 14pts (6-7 mid-table)

I think they have one loss too many before the cavalry arrive this weekend to make the playoffs. It must be frustrating being a Wellingtonian – winning the important games early on and then stuffing it up against the Stormers and Force. They are (well, were) certainly a team to avoid betting-wise as you’d never know what team would turn up. There is a small chance they can make a run for the semis but they have to beat the Crusaders in Christchurch. Good luck.

STORMERS 3-4 14pts (6-7 mid-table)

With a couple of wins on their road trip, a team to keep half an eye on – a bit like the Highlanders in that you don’t think they have the team to go anywhere, but once back home they could make a run for it like the Sharks did last year.

CHIEFS 1-1-4 12pts (9-4 possible semifinalists)

Oops. Next.

TAHS 1-1-4 8pts (8-5 missing the semis)

The wheels have really fallen off this year, and their run-in sees them play all 5 NZ teams and two niggly Oz derbies (Brumbies, Reds). Blues this weekend; Crusaders the next – a friendly word of advice for rugby-loving Sydneysiders. Consider moving city, even country – it’s about to get very, very ugly.

REDS 1-6 6pts (3-10 bottom 3)

If they weren’t Aussies I’d almost feel sorry for them with the horrible run of injuries they’ve had. Send them the wooden spoon now, although if they can beat the Tahs in Sydney they have half a chance of shipping it down south.

SUMMARY

It’s pretty hard to see how the Blues, Sharks and Crusaders will miss the playoffs, which leaves one spot open – who will fill it?

Personally I make the Bulls favourites to get there, ahead of the Highlanders and Force, with the Canes and Stormers not completely out of it. Games between these five teams, starting with the Highlanders v Bulls this weekend, become rather significant.

However it’s all immaterial. The Blues will have a home semi, a home final, and a victory parade down Queen St. :-)