S14 Week 8

A significant week with plenty of focus on the returning All Blacks, and for me what affect their return would have on betting markets. I think there’s money to be made this weekend, so here goes:

BLUES v WARATAHS

Normally when sides approach $8 in head-to-head markets, I start to get interested. But not tonight. If the Blues don’t win this by plenty then they would have performed poorly. When teams string together a few mediocre performances in a row (as the Waratahs have done), it’s not a good look – lack of confidence / problems behind the scenes? Who knows, and as they’re Australians, who cares. In fact, I’m seriously contemplating backing the Blues with the points start (17.5 on Betfair) – something I usually avoid with such a large number, but I can’t see how the Tahs can come within 20 points.

MP: Blues $1.16 Tahs $8 Draw $80
NZ TAB: Blues $1.08 Tahs $7
Betfair: Blues $1.12 Tahs $9.40 Draw $55

HIGHLANDERS v BULLS

Hardest game of the weekend to pick – I’m sitting it out although the Highlanders are perhaps a little short on the tote.

MP: High $1.82 Bull $2.35 Draw $40
TAB: High $1.65 Bull $2.20 (opened 1.70 / 2.10)
BF: High $1.68 Bull $2.44 Draw $28

CRUSADERS v STORMERS

Richie, Dan and Co should be strong enough to beat the visitors, but personally I will be surprised if it’s a thrashing. Thus, the points start of 20.5 on Betfair is where I’ll be plonking some dough – hopefully the Stormers have learnt from the Bulls how NOT to play in ChCh and will do enough to keep within 20 points.

MP: Saders $1.16 Storm $8 Draw $80
TAB: Saders $1.06 Storm $8
BF: Saders $ 1.08 Storm $14 Draw $55

REDS v CHIEFS

Some weird prices around the traps for this one – the NZ TAB opened up on Monday with the Reds at $3.30, while some overseas bookies had them $4.50+. While everyone bar the most one-eyed supporters in Brisbane expect the Chiefs to win, the Reds have been a lot better at home and at least the number of beds in the MASH tent hasn’t increased during the week. Perhaps looking through rose-tinted glasses, but I’m not expecting a thrashing. No bet at the prices.

MP: Reds $3.47 Chief $1.43 Draw $50
TAB: Reds $3.75 Chief $1.25 (opened 3.30 / 1.30)
BF: Reds $4.10 Chief $4.10 Draw $29

SHARKS v BRUMBIES

Prices look about right – anything else apart from a comfortable home win will be a surprise.

MP: Shark $1.33 Brumb $4.35 Draw $50
TAB: Shark $1.25 Brumb $3.50 (opened 1.28 / 3.50)
BF: Shark $1.30 Brumb $4.20 Draw $26

LIONS v HURRICANES

Two thrashings on the road in NZ for the Lions and the Canes get their AB’s back. One-way traffic right? I’m not so sure – now that the Lions are back home, I think this game will be reasonably close and at the prices worth a tickle.

MP: Lion $2.41 Canes $1.79 Draw $40
TAB: Lion $2.85 Canes $1.40 (opened 2.50 / 1.50)
BF: Lion $2.92 Canes $1.55 Draw $28