I can't resist

Over 500,000 pounds at odds of $1.02 was wagered on Betfair for Australia to beat Zimbabwe at the 20/20 Cricket World Cup.

MWAHHHH HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Petulance

While New Zealand gears up for a month and a half of fingernail chewing (only 22 more sleeps to go boys and girls), there is another World Cup starting soon. OK, the cricket 20/20 World Cup is not to be taken seriously (except as an opportunity for this punter to make money) and judging by the squads selected, most of the participants throw it into the Mickey Mouse category as well.

Which makes the brouhaha over the non-selection of South African's premier batsmen Jacques Kallis intriguing. Here in little ol' NZ, our Coach told our premier batsmen his services were not required and he'd be better off spending more time in England scoring runs for his county. Whether Stephen Fleming agrees with that, or has been muzzled, the point is nary a peep has been heard out of him.

Compare that to what's happened in South Africa. Kallis isn't selected, who promptly throws his toys out of the cot, resigning as South African's vice-captain and "reconsidering" his international future. You have to wonder at the lines of communication between the player and selectors/management - for all his reputation as a slow scorer in all forms of the game, he is one helluva player and not one you'd want to piss off lightly.

But it doesn't end there. Enter Mark Boucher (SAF's wicketkeeper) who vents his spleen in a newspaper column.

According to Cricinfo, Boucher was quoted by the Business Day newspaper as suggesting there were ulterior motives for his omission: "It is either those who have an issue with him, and have a chip on their shoulders, or those who have ulterior motives." He did not elaborate.

Further along the article, we learn Boucher is lukewarm about the tournament. "First prize for those of us who love cricket is to be Test world champions," he said. "Second prize is to be 50-over world champions. Twenty20 only comes after those, really."

Which is what puzzles me about the whole thing. The 20/20 tournament is a bit of hit and giggle and not that serious for anyone, players included. So why get all hot under the collar over Kallis' non-selection? The over-reaction by both Boucher and Kallis suggests all is not well in South African cricket and you wonder what is going on behind the scenes. One thing for sure, I wouldn't be backing them to win the tournament next month, even with it being held in their backyard.

Weekend Wrap

Some things stay the same ...

(Eldrick wins a golf tournament)

Some things change ...

(Roger loses a tennis tournament)

And some things are so fucking head scratching frustrating.

I completely understand why India didn't enforce the follow-on against England; but then to take 60 overs scoring 180 led by their marvellous captain whose scoring rate would make a snail look like the Road Runner was pathetic.

Yes it is my wallet talking. I have understimated India's complete and total fear of returning home without the series win. They would rather reduce England's chances of winning the test from 1% to 0.5% than trying to win the bloody thing.

A nailed-on draw fk it. India don't have the motivation to win, and they will only do so if England chuck it away. Which I don't think they will. In fact, if there is any justice in this world Pietersen will smash 150 off 120 balls to lead England to the biggest comeback since Lazarus.

Sigh, dreams are free. But I can't respect sporting teams and/or persons whose fear of losing is so great they would rather not win than lose. Doubly so when it costs me money :)

Day 2

Yes, ahem, well (more embarrassed coughing), my optimism that England could keep this match competitive has proved ill-founded. We're down to two possible results now, and the pitch, weather (showers are forecast tomorrow) and the Indian bowling performance will dictate how this match ends up.

The overnight prices (England 70 India 2.08 Draw 1.96) are not too far out of line with what they should be. It looks like the remainder of the match may be boring from a betting point of view - although if England look half decent batting there will be some price volatility.

Thankfully I didn't tinker too much betting as when I did I got it wrong. Backing England at 20's when India were 450-6 was a masterstroke (NOT) as Dhoni went ballistic shortly thereafter. And bailing on half my draw lay at a loss ($1.70) shortly before the end of India's innings did not factor in Strauss' brain-fade before the close of play.

Still, I'll make money on this test - currently Eng +145 India +145 Draw +50; hopefully some price volatility will allow me to eke out a few more shillings.

Day 1

300-odd for 4 is what I'd describe as a normal first day of test cricket, but perhaps one of the reasons why it is difficult sometimes to lose money betting on cricket is the short-term horizon that punters seem to possess. If you wind back the clock four years to when the South Africans played at Kennington Oval, the Saffers ended the first day 362-4 yet ended up eventually losing (badly, by 9 wickets). There are countless other examples.

I'm not complaining. I'm also not suggesting India will lose, they are in the box seat but much will depend on factors other than performance such as overhead conditions (there was a time yesterday when it clouded over where the ball seemed to swing a bit more) and how much the pitch will deteriorate. Questions that cannot be answered ahead of time, and why keeping an open mind in test cricket is fundamental.

England were a bit lucky to take 4 wickets - 2 of them were shocking umpiring decisions and if you throw in Jaffer's brain explosion you can make a case that England only took 1 wicket all day. Yet one or two wickets early on Day 2 and they'll have their noses in front, so it's not yet time to write them off. I quite liked the way the Indian batsmen (apart from Tendulkar) showed intent - the run-rate was above 4 for a large part of the day, so I have reasonable confidence we'll see a result. But (here comes the open mind again), you can't write the draw off either.

My post-toss prices were England 3.3; India 2.6; Draw 3.1 - with the score a fairly normal looking 316-4 I wouldn't change them much - at a rough guess England 3.7; India 2.4; Draw 3.1. Yet the Betfair market has England 7.4; India 2.86 and the Draw 1.92 (immediately post-toss they were 3.1, 3.65 and 2.42).

So a common situation occurs - the draw will trade far too short for the duration of the test.

Betting-wise, I laid England prior to the toss, for two reasons: one, I felt their price was a little short, and two, there was not much downside - if they won the toss and batted they would shorten but the price of the team batting has the least volatility so there would be plenty of time to go to Plan B. If India win the toss and bat their price would drift (but not as much as I was expecting), and the only way to get in the crap would be if India got rolled cheaply, but the pitch and weather conditions suggested that was unlikely.

I don't wait too long to start backing them at higher odds to cover the arse a little (the open mind philosophy), and that coupled with the draw lay is about all I did. I've learnt over the years not to unnecessarily tinker and just let the game develop and reassess at important points during the game (which for me are end of day, change of innings and taking of the new ball).

Day 1 Bets:

Laid England 150 @ 2.70 (Eng -255, Ind +150, Draw +150)
Progessively backed England for 50 @ at an average of 6.1 (Eng 0, Ind +100, Draw +100)
Laid Draw 100 @ 1.80 (Eng +100, Ind +200, Draw +20)

Nice to end the day in a no-loss situation, but no doubt that will change as I get greedy :)

Eng v India Preview

Cricket afficionados should keep a close eye on the third cricket test starting tonight (NZT), as I believe an intriguing battle is in store. For once the miserable English summer is unlikely to have any influence, which presents to us the not uncommon conundrum of assessing how likely a result will be in conditions likely to suit batsmen more than bowlers with five fullish days available.

The other influence to factor, as with all final tests in a series, is the series score and the motivation each team will have to force a result. Here the home team enter the Oval 1-0 down and rather keen to ensure they don't suffer their first home series defeat since 2001, while India no doubt would like to show they can win a test series away from home (ignoring the West Indian one last year, that doesn't count), as they have shown over the last few years an uncanny knack of dropping the final test while touring.

Notwithstanding England's collapse here last year (partly helped by the conditions), the Oval can be a rather nice place to swing willow as opposed to a red ball, with - again ignoring the West Indies - only two instances of first innings scores of under 300. The bowlers likely to have the most influence are seamers who can extract bounce out of the pitch (e.g. Chris Tremlett) and I suspect Kumble might enjoy rolling his arm over, but I don't think they'll be taking 5-60 in an innings.

It's difficult to set prices for the game, as the toss, and who gets to bat first, is significant. In a place where you are not expecting the team batting first to collapse, they have the advantage of setting the tempo for the game. And in batting third, they can have the greatest influence of deciding how probable a result will be.

So if England bat first, a result becomes more probable and my rough odds would be:

England 2.6 India 2.9 Draw 3.7

If India bat first, don't expect any generous third innings declaration and thus the odds change to:

England 3.3 India 2.6 Draw 3.1

One trick I like doing in final tests where the score is 1-0 is looking at the odds on offer and predicting what will happen to the prices based on the two potential outcomes of the toss. Currently on Betfair, the market has England 2.7 India 4.0 Draw 2.58 - if England win the toss and bat their odds will shorten but I can't see such a move been dramatic, whereas if they lose the toss and India bat I expect a much bigger correction to the prices currently offered. I'll leave it to you to work out what this means and how you can take advantage of it.

But if you're looking for a bet on the game, India are definitely a bit big and the draw as usual underpriced - but in all probability the draw price will be a lot shorter during the game and there should be opportunities to oppose it as the game progresses (depending of course on circumstances).

I might - depending on how bad the sleep deprivation is and how my book is looking - provide an update of each day's play and provide an insight into how this "professional" bets during a cricket test. If you hate cricket, see you in 5 days' time.

Nightlife

Staying up all night and watching cricket can be one helluva way to contribute to a boring life, but occasionally there comes along a day (night) that you will remember for its twist and turns that only this game can seemingly give to a sports audience. As time dulls the memory history will record England were robbed of a victory over India as bad light and then rain meant no play was possible in the final session with England one wicket (and India an improbable 98 runs) away from victory.

But before we dissect the final day, lets go back to the beginning. The test started off with the spectre of a second day washout, which combined with the recent history at the ground and suspect bowling attacks meant most people thought a draw was a nailed-on cert. The rain did arrive spectacularly on Day 2, but what nobody took into consideration was the outstanding drainage at Lords and play recommenced an hour after the aqua moved on.

And here the first of many twists kicked in. The Indian bowling attack, after being lifeless on the first day, suddenly found their rhythm on a pitch juiced up by the rain and wickets tumbled. The dull, boring draw that we were expecting - the odds were down to $1.20 at the beginning of Day 2 - didn't look so certain after all.

Fast forward to Day 5. Another dodgy forecast meant there was plenty of doubt over whether England would have enough time to get the 7 wickets required for victory. My working day began at 2 p.m. (NZT) constantly watching weather sites and odds - and in that seven hour period before play began the draw price oscillated between $1.40 and $2.00.

A precursor of what was to come. A couple of early wickets and England were favourites, before a partnership between Laxman and Dhoni saw the draw freefall (and even India shortened to $7.80). The predicted arrival of rain kept getting pushed out as the rain band stalled over the English Channel, and always in the back of the mind was the possibility of bad light forcing the players off. The draw price kept going up and down (in the words of someone on a betting forum) like a whore's knickers as half-hourly updates of rain radars and commentators musings on the time left before the rain and/or bad light would arrive kept betters on tenderhooks.

Betting in such an environment requires testicles. More than I've got. Usually I avoid betting in such an environment as you're either going to get it spectacularly right or spectacularly wrong, and I'm betting for rent and food money, not play money. But I was seduced by my own strong opinion that the match would finish as a draw and positioned accordingly, so was feeling rather smug when the umpire's light meter came out with India 8 wickets down.

Well fuck me, this game hadn't finished playing its tricks - the Pommie skipper decides to bowl his part-time spinners and play continues. Then an Indian batsman has a brain explosion and tries to whack another spinner out of the park and gets bowled - 9 down and 30 min to go to the afternoon tea interval. Fuck Fuck Farrrrrrrrrrrrrk. Ever bet on a horse race and your horse is leading but there's some other horse flying down the outside and you just know your nag is going to get nabbed on the line? Yeah, that's how I was feeling.

Yes I bailed - England were $1.25 at this point which I felt was a ridiculous price with only one wicket to go - supported by its shortening to $1.12 as play continued. Then without warning the umps decide with about 10 min to go to the interval the light is too bad to continue and they go off, which provokes another expeletive-laden tirade from within the walls of my house and wakes the wife up (not good at 3 a.m. when she starts work at 7 a.m.).

The good news is I only bailed on half my draw profit so I ain't moving into the trailer park yet, but I'd had enough of this roller-coaster. I watched with amusement as the market panicked one more time as the umps announced play would begin at 4.40 p.m. UK time, only for the rain to arrive. That was 3.40 a.m. here, and I'd been watching computer screens and a TV for nearly 14 hours - I was stuffed. The draw was $1.40 - it should have been $1.01, but I'd had enough.

So yes, test cricket can be boring, but getting days like that every so often kind've makes up for it.

ZZZ

That has to be one of the most bizarre endings to a cricket test for a while. And a dangerous one if you were throwing money at it - England got to a low of $1.12 shortly after the ninth wicket fell.

More later, but right now I need sleep.

Rugbyman, Public Servants refers to Wellington - the home of politicians and their Govt Departments.

Patience

Rugby can wait until tomorrow - right now I need sleep after an all-nighter in front of the TV watching the last day of the England - West Indies cricket test.

I had to, as I had a financial interest after initially having no intention of doing so. Excuse me while I crow for a sec, but one of the key abilities in my game is discipline, and it's such an easy thing to say and so hard to do. So when you do fight your urges, wait until the moment is right to strike and it pays off, you do want to sing about it.

The market for this test opened with the Draw over $3, which quickly evaporated and continued to head south as a dodgy weather forecast became a horrific one as it was apparent two days out the first day would in all probability be a wash-out. And so it happened, with the draw ridiculously low at $1.25 as play was supposed to commence. But with doubt over how much play would be possible in the remaining 4 days, if you hadn't managed to back the draw early before it began its freefall there was nothing you could do.

A habitual draw layer like me would be smacking his chops at such a low price, but I left it. Missed the opportunity; there are always others coming up in the future. Little did I realise it would be later in the game.

Thanks to my fucked up sleep patterns, I awoke at 4 a.m. yesterday morning just as England were bowled out for 400; a 113-run lead with 30 overs left still to play in the day. The forecast for the last day was OK so with a potential 125 overs of play left, this game had some life left in it.

Remember the draw was $1.25 at the commencement of the test; now with a result far more probable the price had only drifted out to $1.37. Suddenly after a week of doing nothing an opportunity had arrived. The value of patience (something most of the West Indian batsmen don't have) this time bore fruit as England won the game in the final day despite 140 overs being lost in the first day and a half.

Even if the game had ended up as a draw, I still feel the price was right for me to act - there are plenty of times you end up with the wrong result but know the bet was correct to place. Thankfully this time, I got paid.

Get the flannels out

OMFG.

A game of TEST cricket starts tonight. Now this game will be unfamiliar to many Kiwi readers, as we play fuck all of it, but it involves white clothing and a red ball. They play for five, yes FIVE days.

Although the game coming up (England v West Indies) might not last that long. To tell you the truth, staying up for the next five nights dozing through this contest does not exactly fill me with joy, but one must make moolah when opportunities present themselves.

And despite a Lords test in May providing draws for the last two seasons, unsettled weather in the lead-up and a not too shabby forecast (but remember we are talking England in spring here) suggests to me the traditional golden egg of test cricket betting - going against the draw - is the right play here.

Current prices (Betfair):

England 1.65
West Indies 10.0
Draw 3.3

England have a terrific home record in tests; West indies a horrific away record - and no Lara. Forget about ODI form - Harmison and Hoggard didn't play at the World Cup, instead getting into the swing of things on a staple diet of domestic cricket. It all points to an England win, especially with the crap preparation the Windies have had, but find the England price of 1.65 unbackable.

Far better to lay the draw, and hope for a few England early wickets to get some value on the Poms.

Showdown at Sabina

It's not too hard to work out what possibly will happen in tonight's semifinal at the Cricket World Cup between Sri Lanka and New Zealand. The popular opinion is SL have slightly the better team, NZ have trouble coping with their bowling attack and thus SL deserve to be sub-$1.80 favourites.

But as with all ODI internationals, such an advantage can be nullified depending on the pitch conditions and the importance of winning the toss. Again, you don't have to be Einstein to work out that NZ's best chance of getting through to the final is bowling first on a pitch that has something for the pace bowlers early on.

From a betting point of view, it's stay out until the toss. Back the team bowling first, no matter what the price.

Cricket Update

Gee that blogrest turned into a blog holiday - and a holiday is something I'm looking forward to at the end of the month after the Cricket World Cup. I'm about nine-tenths of the way to official zombie status which means I'm not coherent at the best of times (and an interesting test of betting when your sleep patterns have been fkd for a reasonable length of time; now I know how adventure racers feel) so probably best I don't type too many words for fear of making a right cock of myself (but what's new...)

However the CWC has reached an interesting stage and now that I have seen one match each at the last two venues I've got an idea of how this thing is going to pan out. Firstly the pitches have turned out OK after all and have been reasonably fair, although there has been some advantage at times, but not too biased. So the important remaining matches see:

1. NZ play Sri Lanka play tonight. Actually this may not be that important as I think these two sides will meet in the semi - especially if Sri Lanka win. Malinga out will help NZ's chances as he is a bowler who can at times run through a side, so to me the match hinges on what Murali's figures will be. Sometimes we get the better of him in ODI's, in others he gets on top. And I'm not sure how to assess the Grenada ground - SAF posted a huge score there a couple of days ago while WI got past 250 in reply (which is something given their batting this tournament) so it could be a ground full of runs. Tonight may tell - and if it's a batsmen's benefit then I think NZ have a slight edge. So I think NZ will win this, although there ain't much in it.

2. Two days later at the same venue, NZ play South Africa. I think this will be a much sterner test for the Blackcaps and I'm afraid I can see us suffering a loss here, not that it will affect the big picture too much.

3. In four days time, Australia play Sri Lanka at Grenada. Ho-hum, another convict benefit.

4. The next day, South Africa take on England which should decide the last semifinal spot (even if SAF beat NZ an England win here will mean it will come down to run rate which slightly favours England at the moment). I can't see past a Saffer win, which means the four semifinalists will be found and the remaining Super Eight matches meaningless.

Who plays who will be partly answered tonight - hopefully a NZ win and thus avoiding a semi with Oz and travelling to St Lucia (where NZ played their group matches) rather than Jamaica. If that occurs, I like our chances no matter who out of SL or SAF we play.

So in a couple of weeks trans-tasman phone traffic may spike as we anticipate a NZ Australia final - that's the way I see it and then it'll be time to get out the prayer mats.

Cricket: Super 8 Preview

Super Eight? More like the Surprising Eight, with India and Pakistan already knocked out. Personally, it’s more than a little annoying as 24 potential second-round opportunities to make money have been whittled down to perhaps 13, but on the bright side a few extra night’s sleep instead of watching cricket from 1.30 a.m. to 10 a.m. might be good for the long-term health.

So what can we expect? First, remember to watch the pitches. New venues – with considerable doubt over the use of Providence Stadium in Guyana which is due to host its first match in less than 48 hours. What has happened in the group stages has little bearing on what is about to happen, except for giving some pointers about how the real contenders are travelling.

Let’s get the minnows out of the way. I don’t expect them to win any games, although Bangladesh on their day does have the capability to beat someone, and anyone. So the conventional wisdom is Australia and NZ have been given a leg up as they play both minnows and have 2 points carried forward, an advantage over the other four.

While that is true to some extent and both antipodean sides have half the door opened to make the semifinals, I don’t think the other sides need to worry too much. For a start, until we see how significant the toss is on these new pitch blocks, such advantage may mean F.A. if you lose 5 tosses in a row. Sri Lanka won’t mind too much about already having their win v Bangladesh as their run rate (which may come into play) starts off very healthy.

Assuming Ireland and Bangladesh won’t make the semis. We’re faced with the problem of fitting six teams into four slots. The two I think are more likely to miss out are the West Indies and England. Admittedly I’ve only seen the one WI game in TV (the first against Pakistan) and while they played OK, I worry about their schedule at this stage which sees the Aussies first up tonight, the Kiwis two days later, and then traveling to Guyana to play Sri Lanka 3 days after that.

I’m not going to repeat the schedules of each team here but there are definitely some teams who have an easier schedule than others, and the WI fall into the “others”. While the Champions Trophy should serve as a reminder the hosts can play this version of the game quite well, it’s a tough road this week and 3 losses will mean they’re gone.

Despite the end to the Commonwealth Bank series, England are definitely the weakest ODI side left out of the major nations and IMHO are just not good enough to get through. Yes, if Pietersen, Collingwood and Flintoff all fire at the same time, or they get enough luck with the tosses, they have a chance of getting to the semis but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Of the four left, NZ’s chances have been dealt a cruel blow with the injury to Vincent. Not so much for his batting – his attitude is like a bunch of happy pills to his teammates and his fielding was like having a sixth bowler go 1/15 each match. In my mind, it’s no co-incidence NZ’s ODI form took a major upswing when he arrived midway through the CB series and I fear a correction may take place now he’s out. Of course I hope I’m wrong.

Down to three, and those writing off Australia because they think their bowlers are kak are being a bit premature. First, let’s see how they perform when there’s an even contest between bat and ball. Second, their batting line-up is more than capable of overcoming any deficiencies in this area. Still the team to beat.

I still think the side most likely to tip them over in a final is Sri Lanka. The win over India impressed me – they had the worst of it (losing the toss and batting first), and it wasn’t their stars who got them out of a tricky position early on, it was their young guns. A balanced bowling attack, a reasonable fielding side – yep, they’re the main dangers.

I’m not writing off South Africa but I just feel they’ll find a way to cock it up somehow, like they always do. The best way they can proceed in this competition is to get on a roll as they’re a side who plays best with a swagger in their step – so their first game against Sri Lanka is crucial. Win that, they have Ireland and Bangladesh after that, and look out the rest.

Looking into the crystal ball, the semis will possibly be NZ v Aus and SAF v SL. I’d plump for an Aus v SL final and ask me at a later date who will win the thing. Unfortunately, there’s not much value in the winner’s market – the value in this comp is to assess pitch/ground conditions quickly and bet accordingly during the game.

World Cup Winner (Betfair):

Australia $2.56
South Africa $6.20
Sri Lanka $6.20 (the only bet worth considering)
New Zealand $7.80
West Indies $10
England $16
Bangladesh $170
Ireland $760

Impressive

In between numerous dozes on the couch managed to catch most of the NZ v Kenya game. Someone slap me - I think we have half a chance to win the damn thing.

Cricket World Cup Preview

Right, let’s get the important thing out of the way – I don’t have a farkin’ clue who will win the World Cup. Anybody that thinks so-and-so will win IMHO are talking out of their rear end. Why? Because with a number of brand new grounds and re-laid pitch blocks on some of the old ones, not even Nostradamus can predict how the next 6 weeks will pan out.

Anyone who has read this blog from post one will know I look at the pitches and weather just as much as the teams when considering upcoming cricket games. And in this tournament, pitches and the weather will have a significant part to play, that much is definite. Weather? While it may not be the rainy season, you can expect rainfall for the next 6 weeks to be above zero mm and Messrs Duckworth and Lewis may come into play. Thankfully with the scheduling of reserve days and games not starting afresh if they are used, a “No result” stuffing up the competition should be avoided.

But it’s the pitches that need close inspection. The four venues for the group stages are not so important, principally because only one meaningful match is being staged at each venue. However by the time we reach the Super Eight stage, that changes. And it is here where there are sizeable question marks.

The Super Eight stage is being held at two completely new venues, another rebuilt after Mother Nature vented its fury, and a renovated stadium complete with new pitch block. The first half sees games played at the two new venues, Sir Viv Richards Stadium at Antigua (where there have been undulations identified in the pitch square) and Providence Stadium in Guyana (where the square didn’t seed as well as hoped). Brilliant. The second half uses venues in Grenada and Barbados, where there is a bit more confidence surrounding conditions.

So while I don’t have a farkin’ clue who is going to win this thing, I do expect the results in warm-up games and in the group stages to mean jack shit. Predictions that on the basis of a few collapses by SAF, NZ and WI in warm-up games this will be a bowler-dominated tournament are rubbish. It may turn out that way, but we won’t know until the eight remaining teams are in Antigua and Guyana. And in my reading, Kensington Oval in Barbados (which will also host the final) has more chance of being a run feast ground than a minefield.

Teams? Despite their recent tumble from Federer-class (although even he lost yesterday), Australia remains the side to beat and you can pretty much throw a blanket over the other 7 real contenders. I don’t read too much into SAF’s recent form (NZ’s too for that matter) because teams that run up win streaks at home need to be taken with a pinch of salt. It is an open competition, not so much because of the losses Australia has suffered, but due to the significant doubt over the conditions teams will play in (will ball dominate bat? Or the other way around? And will it be different from venue to venue? How much advantage will there be in winning the toss?).

Because of this doubt, my approach to the World Cup has been, and remains not to take any position at all in the winner’s market. Personally I believe there will be enough opportunities to profit from in-play trading during games and that’s where my energies will be concentrated.

If I had to get off the fence, Aus would be my pick to win, but at $3.20 on Betfair no thank you. I expect the South Africans to somehow stuff it up again, and if I didn’t have to take conditions into account, Sri Lanka is in my mind the main danger. India will leak too many runs in the field, and the remaining four teams who are all paying over $10 are a little over-priced as despite question marks over their consistency, all they have to do is win enough games to qualify for the semis and then win 2 games on the trot. Any of the eight sides can do that.

Newsflash

BRACEWELL BLASTS WORLD CUP PREPARATION

New Zealand cricket coach John Bracewell has been asked by the ICC to appear before their Disciplinary Committee after a heated post-match press conference following their one-wicket victory over Australia yesterday.

Bracewell has been charged with bringing the game into disrepute after calling the Australian team “a bunch of wankers” for sub-standard performances during the past week that he claims has thrown his team’s preparation for next month’s World Cup in serious disarray.

“Look, all we wanted was a bit of decent competition and test ourselves under pressure but the crap dished up by a bunch of wankers leaves us with a lot of unanswered questions”, he said. When questioned by the Herald’s Dick Cock that the last game could be construed as competitive, Bracewell completely lost the plot.

“Listen Cock, we didn’t play our best two bowlers, I tell our top order to chuck their wickets away and then when Macca and Brendan are whacking away I have to send out a message and tell them to slow down. Gillespie was meant to miss a straight one as I really wanted to see if Jeets (Jeetan Patel) can bat but he kept nicking the fucking thing and by the time he ran himself out it was too late. That wasn’t competitive you knob, we were trying to manufacture a situation and see how we would respond”.

Meanwhile, Australian captain Michael Hussey insists there is no need to panic for his side. “If you look at the series, we have steadily improved” he said. “We lost by 10 wickets, then 5, and the final game by only 1 so we are heading the right way”. He added if a game was played Thursday a logical mathematical progression would see them win by 2 wickets so he’s confident by the time the World Cup starts in three weeks his team will beat Scotland in their opening game by 29 wickets and whoever they meet in the final by 45 wickets.

“You can’t argue with logic, maaaaaaaaate” he grinned, before being interrupted by a cellphone ringing. Although talking in hushed tones, our record of the ensuing conversation went something like this: “Hey Punter, did you get that 100 bucks on the Kiwis at 50/1 during the run chase? You did? Chooooice! What about 3/1 on us winning the World Cup? Oh, you little fuckin’ beauty.”

And in late breaking news, fears that Matthew Hayden had suffered a major brain injury after being struck by a Gillespie yorker eased last night after a scan showed no apparent damage, although some doubt remained after an incident in the early hours of this morning where he produced two cockroaches, gave one to NZ captain Stephen Fleming and insisted they bet on them racing up the hotel wall.

NZ 'A' vs AUS 'B'

Not often you see Australia $1.80 in a cricket match, but on a three match losing streak and with three, possibly more, of their front-liners out - it's an understandable price.

Not that I'm wading into it - often markets over-react to injuries and unavailability in team sports but the loss of Symonds and Ponting in particular do make Australia an easier proposition. It's no co-incidence in my mind the English revival occurred in the game where both of them didn't play. Put Gilchrist and possibly Lee on the sidelines as well ... it's a no bet game for me, except during in-play.

Go the Blackcaps!

Afridi and easy money

You know there's a higher authority at work when you set your alarm for 5.30 a.m. (to get up for the second half of the South African v Pakistan ODI), only to wake up at 3 a.m. with a voice inside your head screaming at you to get your ar$e out of bed.

Thankfully I listened and dutifully obeyed, for not only did I see Shahid Afridi in one of his "moods", cracking the second-fastest half century ever - but some kind people thought South Africa were worth betting at $2.60 when he was striding to the crease with Pakistan 222-4 in the 38th over. Even if he failed, with Razzaq, Mahmood and Malik still in the hut, there was enough firepower to get Pakistan past 300.

Even at the change of innings and over 350 on the board, Pakistan were still a generous $1.30 to win the game - never mind SAF had to do the second-highest run chase ever to win - and after 4 overs and 25-0 Pakistan were out to $1.50 ...

It restores my faith in human nature to see that betting markets can still at times over-react to the point that those causing them should be consigned to the loony bin - but hey, perhaps I should shut up as it pays for my groceries.

However there was still one twist in the tail - a blackout at the ground after 19.4 overs of the chase - which is significant as the rules of cricket require 20 overs to be completed by the team batting second for a result to be declared, and betting markets will void bets if there is no offical result.

Luckily they came back on after half an hour, otherwise the conspiracy theorists would be having a field day - it's not as if the two teams have a squeaky clean record when it comes to betting scandals is it? Still, it makes you wonder what caused it - perhaps that higher authority was having a bit of fun at my expense ...

Bloody Poms

Up until Friday, I really fancied NZ's chances of pinching today's ODI off Australia. Doesn't matter how good a sportsteam is, the more wins they string together the possibility slightly increases they'll put in a sub-par performance and their opponents can catch them on an off-day. Unfortunately for Kiwi fans, that day came two days early.

Now Australia losing two ODI cricket matches in a row is about as common as the wife cooking me breakfast, so I'm being a touch pessimistic. I guess we're in with a starter's chance, and the Australian price on Betfair ($1.25) is a little tight. So close eyes, put a wee wager on the Blackcaps and hope that lightning can indeed strike twice.

Is anyone watching ...

the cricket match, sorry, mis-match this 'avo between England and Australia?

Another absolute arse-whippin' is on the cards. And when here in NZ we have the Wellington Sevens and the Blues-Crusaders as alternatives, I think the viewing numbers will be well down.

Sunday though, will be a different story. I think it might be time for that needle in a haystack to be found :-)