Super 14 Semis
Two mouth-watering clashes are not too many hours away - one sleep as a kid on Xmas Eve would say, and to be honest I can't wait to see how these two semis pan out. Not because I have money riding on them; while on the balance of probabilities the two home sides should get home, the one constant in sport are the surprises that get thrown up - so don't be surprised if the Blues and Crusaders are on the plane to Christchurch come Monday to play another game.
Just don't bet on it. The press I've been reading are the Saffers are more nervous about the Sharks advancing than the Bulls, even though they are at sub-$1.50 compared to the Bulls $1.75-ish for winning in the weekend. Honestly, I can't see what they're worried about. The Blues looked good last week because (a) the Force played poorly, and (b) McAlister made a large difference to the backline functioning, and he ain't there. With the caveat that the referee is Mr S. Dickinson and he has been known in the past to fk up an otherwise promising game of rugby, as long as the Sharks handle the nerves and don't partake in too many brain explosions (Francois Steyn is a good candidate for one or two), the game is theirs for the taking.
And so we move onto the Bulls v Crusaders. The way the Bulls have been playing you would think they should walk into the final but if there is one team that can pull off a semifinal visit to Loftus with a win, it would be the red and blacks. Except for one thing - their lineout has been at times as dysfunctional as bowel movements after a hot curry. There is the possibility that Corey Flynn will be named the Bulls' man of the match if he has one of his off nights.
Yes, the Crusaders have been famed in the past for winning games without not too much pill but that mojo seems to have worn off if you view the evidence from the last two weeks. Therein lies the problem - they need ball, they won't get it from lineout time so they will be reliant on turnovers from breakdowns and Bulls' mistakes to get a reasonable share of possession. Rather ironic - we bang on here in NZ about how Saffer teams feed off opposition mistakes to be effective yet that is what the Crusaders will be relying on (plus McCaw at the breakdown) to have a shot in this game.
This game is in the Bulls' hands - turn up and play the way they have and they should win. But this is sport - anything can happen.
Betting-wise there's not much on offer; the Sharks and Bulls are at skinny odds at the NZ TAB while I don't think backing the NZ teams would be the smartest move in the world. Personally I think these games are a sit and watch, but if you have $10 burning a hole in your wallet the bet to me is the Bulls at the handicap - it's only 3.5 points which I think if they do turn up to play they'll cover quite easily.
Have a good weekend.
Just don't bet on it. The press I've been reading are the Saffers are more nervous about the Sharks advancing than the Bulls, even though they are at sub-$1.50 compared to the Bulls $1.75-ish for winning in the weekend. Honestly, I can't see what they're worried about. The Blues looked good last week because (a) the Force played poorly, and (b) McAlister made a large difference to the backline functioning, and he ain't there. With the caveat that the referee is Mr S. Dickinson and he has been known in the past to fk up an otherwise promising game of rugby, as long as the Sharks handle the nerves and don't partake in too many brain explosions (Francois Steyn is a good candidate for one or two), the game is theirs for the taking.
And so we move onto the Bulls v Crusaders. The way the Bulls have been playing you would think they should walk into the final but if there is one team that can pull off a semifinal visit to Loftus with a win, it would be the red and blacks. Except for one thing - their lineout has been at times as dysfunctional as bowel movements after a hot curry. There is the possibility that Corey Flynn will be named the Bulls' man of the match if he has one of his off nights.
Yes, the Crusaders have been famed in the past for winning games without not too much pill but that mojo seems to have worn off if you view the evidence from the last two weeks. Therein lies the problem - they need ball, they won't get it from lineout time so they will be reliant on turnovers from breakdowns and Bulls' mistakes to get a reasonable share of possession. Rather ironic - we bang on here in NZ about how Saffer teams feed off opposition mistakes to be effective yet that is what the Crusaders will be relying on (plus McCaw at the breakdown) to have a shot in this game.
This game is in the Bulls' hands - turn up and play the way they have and they should win. But this is sport - anything can happen.
Betting-wise there's not much on offer; the Sharks and Bulls are at skinny odds at the NZ TAB while I don't think backing the NZ teams would be the smartest move in the world. Personally I think these games are a sit and watch, but if you have $10 burning a hole in your wallet the bet to me is the Bulls at the handicap - it's only 3.5 points which I think if they do turn up to play they'll cover quite easily.
Have a good weekend.
posted by Rob Crawford at 5:21 PM
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