Super 14 Week 5 Preview
Another quiet week by the looks of it – all 7 games involve the home side starting as favourite in the betting markets, although so far this year teams in this position have paid out only 14 times out of 22. So chances are there will be an away win or two this weekend, but where?
BLUES v HIGHLANDERS
Probably not here, but my jaw did hit the ground somewhat when the TAB opened the Blues at $1.15. Although they have drifted slightly to $1.17, perhaps more realistic prices can be found overseas where they are commonly $1.20 to $1.25.
The usual situation where the underdog away team is paying too much; I’ll be surprised if the Blues don’t win as they should have far too much gas and skill in the backs but funnier things have happened in sport. I’ve managed to get a little (i.e. not enough unfortunately) nibble on the Highlanders at $7 to keep me awake tonight.
My Prices: Blues $1.42 Highlanders $3.70 Draw $40
NZ TAB: Blues $1.17 Highlanders $4.75
Betfair (best available to back): Blues $1.25 Highlanders $5.60 Draw $27
WARATAHS v FORCE
Hard to predict this one – especially as the game may get nasty as there won’t exactly be a lot of lurrrrve in the air tonight at Sydney. And throw in the curveball of Marks as referee I’m staying on the sidelines, although if someone wants to give me $3 on the Force I’ll take it.
MP: Tahs $1.67 Force $2.70 Draw $33
NZ TAB: Tahs $1.45 Force $2.65
Betfair: Tahs $1.57 Force $2.76 Draw $27
CHEETAHS v CHIEFS
Both teams have made significant changes as they deal with the short turnaround from last week. Another game which is hard to figure out – the Cheetahs certainly dropped their intensity last week and got killed at the breakdown, while the Chiefs keep finding ways to lose winning games. No bet for me.
MP: Cheetahs $1.61 Chiefs $2.86 Draw $33
NZ TAB: Cheetahs $1.55 Chiefs $2.35
Betfair: Cheetahs $1.60 Chiefs $2.80 Draw $27
HURRICANES v STORMERS
This is one game where they should head straight to the bar and forget about the 80 minutes in the middle as the result is a foregone conclusion – although I suppose there is a small possibility after their tough start the Canes may drop off the pace a little away from Westpac Stadium (the game is being played in Palmerston North). For that reason alone, it wouldn’t be the silliest idea to consider the Canes winning by 12 and under ($2.90 at the TAB) but I think I’ll pass.
MP: Canes $1.27 Stormers $5.00 Draw $67
NZ TAB: Canes $1.18 Stormers $4.50
Betfair: Canes $1.20 Stormers $5.00 Draw $29
BRUMBIES v BULLS
Geez. Anyone really want to back the Brumbies without Mortlock and Larkham? Or the Bulls who are not exactly renowned as great travellers? Normally I’d have this as a Brumbies lock but them without M and L is like the ABs without McCaw and Carter. Next.
MP: Brumbies $1.47 Bulls $3.33 Draw $50
NZ TAB: Brumbies $1.40 Bulls $2.85
Betfair: Brumbies $1.48 Bulls $3.30 Draw: $27
REDS v LIONS
Mumble grumble. Yes I’m still pissed at missing the Lions last week and like a lemming to a cliff I’ll probably be sucked into backing them at a far shorter price this week and do my dough. While the Reds have played better in their home games so far this year, I think their style of play will pose no problems for the Lions who have a decent shout at winning. If I can get $2.70 on the Pussies I’m in.
MP: Reds $1.81 Lions $2.41 Draw $30
NZ TAB: Reds $1.50 Lions $2.50
Betfair: Reds $1.65 Lions $2.64 Draw $27
SHARKS v CRUSADERS
And for the second week running the Crusaders close off the round away to a Saffer team as a slight underdog in the most interesting match-up of the weekend. Can the Sharks do what the Cheetahs couldn’t? I say YES – and having laid the Crusaders early in the week at $1.92 I’m happy with the bet. One caveat: my favourite referee Stuart Dickinson is in control of his first Super 14 match this year so the game may not be a great spectacle (translation: expect a penalty feast).
MP: Sharks $1.92 Crusaders $2.25 Draw $29
NZ TAB: Sharks $1.87 Saders $1.87
Betfair: Sharks $1.88 Saders $2.16 Draw $25
WEEK 4 REVIEW
Yes I backed the Cheetahs. Wrong (feline) animal.
Week 4: -1.94
Season to date: +11.63
BLUES v HIGHLANDERS
Probably not here, but my jaw did hit the ground somewhat when the TAB opened the Blues at $1.15. Although they have drifted slightly to $1.17, perhaps more realistic prices can be found overseas where they are commonly $1.20 to $1.25.
The usual situation where the underdog away team is paying too much; I’ll be surprised if the Blues don’t win as they should have far too much gas and skill in the backs but funnier things have happened in sport. I’ve managed to get a little (i.e. not enough unfortunately) nibble on the Highlanders at $7 to keep me awake tonight.
My Prices: Blues $1.42 Highlanders $3.70 Draw $40
NZ TAB: Blues $1.17 Highlanders $4.75
Betfair (best available to back): Blues $1.25 Highlanders $5.60 Draw $27
WARATAHS v FORCE
Hard to predict this one – especially as the game may get nasty as there won’t exactly be a lot of lurrrrve in the air tonight at Sydney. And throw in the curveball of Marks as referee I’m staying on the sidelines, although if someone wants to give me $3 on the Force I’ll take it.
MP: Tahs $1.67 Force $2.70 Draw $33
NZ TAB: Tahs $1.45 Force $2.65
Betfair: Tahs $1.57 Force $2.76 Draw $27
CHEETAHS v CHIEFS
Both teams have made significant changes as they deal with the short turnaround from last week. Another game which is hard to figure out – the Cheetahs certainly dropped their intensity last week and got killed at the breakdown, while the Chiefs keep finding ways to lose winning games. No bet for me.
MP: Cheetahs $1.61 Chiefs $2.86 Draw $33
NZ TAB: Cheetahs $1.55 Chiefs $2.35
Betfair: Cheetahs $1.60 Chiefs $2.80 Draw $27
HURRICANES v STORMERS
This is one game where they should head straight to the bar and forget about the 80 minutes in the middle as the result is a foregone conclusion – although I suppose there is a small possibility after their tough start the Canes may drop off the pace a little away from Westpac Stadium (the game is being played in Palmerston North). For that reason alone, it wouldn’t be the silliest idea to consider the Canes winning by 12 and under ($2.90 at the TAB) but I think I’ll pass.
MP: Canes $1.27 Stormers $5.00 Draw $67
NZ TAB: Canes $1.18 Stormers $4.50
Betfair: Canes $1.20 Stormers $5.00 Draw $29
BRUMBIES v BULLS
Geez. Anyone really want to back the Brumbies without Mortlock and Larkham? Or the Bulls who are not exactly renowned as great travellers? Normally I’d have this as a Brumbies lock but them without M and L is like the ABs without McCaw and Carter. Next.
MP: Brumbies $1.47 Bulls $3.33 Draw $50
NZ TAB: Brumbies $1.40 Bulls $2.85
Betfair: Brumbies $1.48 Bulls $3.30 Draw: $27
REDS v LIONS
Mumble grumble. Yes I’m still pissed at missing the Lions last week and like a lemming to a cliff I’ll probably be sucked into backing them at a far shorter price this week and do my dough. While the Reds have played better in their home games so far this year, I think their style of play will pose no problems for the Lions who have a decent shout at winning. If I can get $2.70 on the Pussies I’m in.
MP: Reds $1.81 Lions $2.41 Draw $30
NZ TAB: Reds $1.50 Lions $2.50
Betfair: Reds $1.65 Lions $2.64 Draw $27
SHARKS v CRUSADERS
And for the second week running the Crusaders close off the round away to a Saffer team as a slight underdog in the most interesting match-up of the weekend. Can the Sharks do what the Cheetahs couldn’t? I say YES – and having laid the Crusaders early in the week at $1.92 I’m happy with the bet. One caveat: my favourite referee Stuart Dickinson is in control of his first Super 14 match this year so the game may not be a great spectacle (translation: expect a penalty feast).
MP: Sharks $1.92 Crusaders $2.25 Draw $29
NZ TAB: Sharks $1.87 Saders $1.87
Betfair: Sharks $1.88 Saders $2.16 Draw $25
WEEK 4 REVIEW
Yes I backed the Cheetahs. Wrong (feline) animal.
Week 4: -1.94
Season to date: +11.63
Labels: 2007S14
posted by Rob Crawford at 11:49 AM
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