S14 Week 4 Preview

Not a particularly appetising round of matches from a betting point of view this week, but there are a couple which have playoff ramifications, starting with:

HURRICANES v BRUMBIES

Both teams are genuine semi contenders; both sit on 9 points after 2 wins and a loss; both could have just as easily been 0 and 3, and both have played the same opponents in the first three weeks (Chiefs and Reds away, and the Blues at home).

Normally applying the mathematical logic of A beat B and B beat C so A must beat C is fraught with danger in sport, but a review of each team’s performance against the three common opponents leads to the conclusion that ordinarily there wouldn’t be too much separating these two at the end of 80 minutes. Add in the Canes are at home, and the Brumbies are missing their skipper – and I’m expecting the Canes to win this one. But at the prices, no bet – although if the Brumbies drift further I’m in.

My Prices: Hurricanes $1.67 Brumbies $2.67 Draw $40
NZ TAB: Canes $1.45 Brumbies $2.65
Betfair (best available to back): Canes $1.46 Brumbies $2.84 Draw $19

HIGHLANDERS v STORMERS

Normally NZ teams returning home from SAF are not the safest of bets, but at least here the Stormers have also had to endure the trip, although arriving a day earlier. Interesting to see the Speights boys have picked two open-side flankers and put the blindside at lock, and I think in this dance of the desperate we may be in for a pleasant surprise and see a reasonably entertaining game with plenty of points. Especially if the ball can get out to the left wing – Russell for the Sharks and Waqaseaduadua for the Highlanders.

As for picking a winner – as usual the home side is a bit short on the tote but the prices aren’t attractive enough to get involved.

MP: Highlanders $1.60 Stormers $2.86 Draw $40
NZ TAB: Highlanders $1.50 Stormers $2.50
Betfair: Highlanders $1.50 Stormers $2.74 Draw $26

BLUES v REDS

As a habitual outsider backer, the Reds should grab my attention, but I can’t see how they could win this game if it was played 10 times. Yet more injuries to the pack, a game-plan which although effective won’t see them score enough points – nup, no hope. There is a chance this could get seriously ugly on the scoreboard but equally if the Reds continue to be efficient in securing possession and retaining it, it may end up being close. So no bet on the match odds, not confident enough to take the Blues at 13 and over – another sit and watch.

MP: Blues $1.27 Reds $5.00 Draw $67
NZ TAB: Blues $1.25 Reds $3.75
Betfair: Blues $1.30 Reds $4.30 Draw $26

FORCE v LIONS

One team is going to break their duck – the Force have yet to win at home while the Pussies have never won a game in Australia in 11 seasons. Based on current form, only the insane would back the Lions but you could have said that last week, too. Its déjà vu again where the prices are almost at the point where a wee speculator on the Lions wouldn’t be the stupidest idea this weekend.

MP: Force $1.39 Lions $3.85 Draw $50
NZ TAB: Force $1.18 Lions $4.50
Betfair: Force $1.28 Lions $4.60 Draw $29

BULLS v CHIEFS

Another dance of the desperate – two teams with more injuries than a MASH unit and who have been giving out Xmas presents left, right and centre. Will Bates throw another intercept? Will Victor take the shots at goal?

The aura of invincibility that the Bulls have had at Pretoria should be well out of the minds of punters now – 4 from 7 last year and a loss to the Force last weekend. This game is the hardest to price up this weekend, as it’s the most unpredictable. I’m staying on the sidelines.

MP: Bulls $1.60 Chiefs $2.86 Draw $40
NZ TAB: Bulls $1.45 Chiefs $2.65
Betfair: Bulls $1.45 Chiefs $3.20 Draw: $26

CHEETAHS v CRUSADERS

The last game of the round is the most interesting – the Cheetahs could do us all a big favour and knock the champs off leaving them in danger of missing the playoffs already – as I can’t see the Crusaders winning next weekend against the Sharks coming off a week’s rest.

For mine, the Cheetahs have been the one team who has looked dangerous – getting a reasonable supply of the pill and just as importantly doing something with it. They worried me a little bit stepping off the gas last weekend and allowing the Tahs to get back in the game, and the Saders are the one team you wouldn’t want to do that too. I want to price the Cheetahs at around $1.60 but I have this nagging feeling that the Crusaders know this is a must-win while the Cheetahs may not be at the same intensity shown (at times) last weekend. I hope I’m wrong.

MP: Cheetahs $1.82 Crusaders $2.38 Draw $33
NZ TAB: Cheetahs $1.85 Saders $1.90
Betfair: Cheetahs $1.95 Saders $2.08 Draw $26

WEEK 3 REVIEW

A couple of late decisions paid off getting on the two upsets of the round:

Backed Force to beat Bulls: +4.14
Traded in-play Canes v Blues: +1.39
Backed Tahs to beat Cheetahs: -2.00
Backed Lions to beat Crusaders: +7.64
Backed under 43.5 points in above game: +1.25
Backed Highlanders to beat Sharks: -2.08
Backed Highlanders with 10.5 points start: +1.05

Week 3: +11.39
Season to date: +13.57