Super 14 Week 6
Apologies for the late post - a trip to the Hamilton casino being the culprit, which provided an interesting postscript to the Night Owls posting as I was joined at the poker tables by a few tennis players from the Futures tournament going on there this week - despite them all being involved in a doubles semi-final today ...
Anyway, onto the rugby, where I probably won't be betting this weekend:
HIGHLANDERS v REDS
What on earth were the NZ TAB thinking opening the Highlanders up at $1.45 on Monday? One of the few occasions I've regretted not having a TAB account, and I should have opened one up. They are now down to $1.35 which I consider the right price, as I can't see how the Reds can win this game - unless the Highlanders throw in a shocker.
MP: High $1.33 Reds $4.35 Draw $50
TAB: High $1.35 Reds $3.00
Betfair: High $1.38 Reds $3.75 Draw $26
BRUMBIES v STORMERS
Based on my theory that teams in the Super 14 rarely put two bad performances together in a row, I expect the Brumbies with Mortlock back to be able to catch the ball and pass it this week, and hopefully they've learned from the Hurricanes that when passing, give it to a teammate rather than the opposition. I've probably assessed the Brumbies a bit short, but it's a game I don't want to get involved in.
MP: Brum $1.43 Storm $3.57 Draw $50
TAB: Brum $1.40 Storm $2.80
BF: Brum $1.42 Storm $3.10 Draw $30
FORCE v HURRICANES
God knows how to price this game up with Jekyll and Hyde playing at Perth for the first time. Blair Stewart comes in for Gopperth which I think may be a plus, as is Nonu on the bench. Throw a dart at the board to predict this game - I think the Canes will get up but without enough confidence to throw money at them.
MP: Force $2.15 Canes $2.00 Draw $29
TAB: Force $1.95 Canes $1.80
BF: Force $1.95 Canes $2.00 Draw $30
BLUES v LIONS
Anyones predicting this as a top of the table clash preseason would have been put in a straitjacket. The Lions bubble will burst tomorrow night, expecting a similar game to last week's at Eden Park where it might take a while, but the Blues should come home strong.
MP: Blue $1.25 Lion $5.41 Draw $67
TAB: Blue $1.11 Lion $6.00
BF: Blue $1.20 Lion $5.60 Draw $32
WARATAHS v BULLS
The Bulls impressed me last week by playing reasonably smart rugby, something I never trust them to do. If they get the same help from the Tahs as they did from the Brumbies, expect the same result. This is one game I'm almost tempted to bet - the Bulls will be licking their chops at the forward battle where I expect them to dominate, so if (a big if) they do the same things as last week (grind it out, play the percentages) they should win.
MP: Tahs $1.90 Bulls $2.22 Draw $40
TAB: Tahs $1.62 Bulls $2.20
BF: Tahs $1.72 Bulls $2.38 Draw $27
CHEETAHS v SHARKS
I smell a rat in this one. Natal don't have a great record at Bloemfontein in the Currie Cup and the Cheetahs won this fixture last year in Durban (27-26). On recent performances you'd expect the Sharks to win but sometimes with SAF derbies you can throw the formbook out the window. I'm sitting it out, but the Cheetahs are almost at the point to tempt me.
MP: Cheet $2.22 Shark $1.92 Draw $33
TAB: Cheet $2.25 Shark $1.60
BF: Cheet $2.48 Shark $1.71 Draw $25
Anyway, onto the rugby, where I probably won't be betting this weekend:
HIGHLANDERS v REDS
What on earth were the NZ TAB thinking opening the Highlanders up at $1.45 on Monday? One of the few occasions I've regretted not having a TAB account, and I should have opened one up. They are now down to $1.35 which I consider the right price, as I can't see how the Reds can win this game - unless the Highlanders throw in a shocker.
MP: High $1.33 Reds $4.35 Draw $50
TAB: High $1.35 Reds $3.00
Betfair: High $1.38 Reds $3.75 Draw $26
BRUMBIES v STORMERS
Based on my theory that teams in the Super 14 rarely put two bad performances together in a row, I expect the Brumbies with Mortlock back to be able to catch the ball and pass it this week, and hopefully they've learned from the Hurricanes that when passing, give it to a teammate rather than the opposition. I've probably assessed the Brumbies a bit short, but it's a game I don't want to get involved in.
MP: Brum $1.43 Storm $3.57 Draw $50
TAB: Brum $1.40 Storm $2.80
BF: Brum $1.42 Storm $3.10 Draw $30
FORCE v HURRICANES
God knows how to price this game up with Jekyll and Hyde playing at Perth for the first time. Blair Stewart comes in for Gopperth which I think may be a plus, as is Nonu on the bench. Throw a dart at the board to predict this game - I think the Canes will get up but without enough confidence to throw money at them.
MP: Force $2.15 Canes $2.00 Draw $29
TAB: Force $1.95 Canes $1.80
BF: Force $1.95 Canes $2.00 Draw $30
BLUES v LIONS
Anyones predicting this as a top of the table clash preseason would have been put in a straitjacket. The Lions bubble will burst tomorrow night, expecting a similar game to last week's at Eden Park where it might take a while, but the Blues should come home strong.
MP: Blue $1.25 Lion $5.41 Draw $67
TAB: Blue $1.11 Lion $6.00
BF: Blue $1.20 Lion $5.60 Draw $32
WARATAHS v BULLS
The Bulls impressed me last week by playing reasonably smart rugby, something I never trust them to do. If they get the same help from the Tahs as they did from the Brumbies, expect the same result. This is one game I'm almost tempted to bet - the Bulls will be licking their chops at the forward battle where I expect them to dominate, so if (a big if) they do the same things as last week (grind it out, play the percentages) they should win.
MP: Tahs $1.90 Bulls $2.22 Draw $40
TAB: Tahs $1.62 Bulls $2.20
BF: Tahs $1.72 Bulls $2.38 Draw $27
CHEETAHS v SHARKS
I smell a rat in this one. Natal don't have a great record at Bloemfontein in the Currie Cup and the Cheetahs won this fixture last year in Durban (27-26). On recent performances you'd expect the Sharks to win but sometimes with SAF derbies you can throw the formbook out the window. I'm sitting it out, but the Cheetahs are almost at the point to tempt me.
MP: Cheet $2.22 Shark $1.92 Draw $33
TAB: Cheet $2.25 Shark $1.60
BF: Cheet $2.48 Shark $1.71 Draw $25
Labels: 2007S14
posted by Rob Crawford at 4:12 PM
2 Comments:
Just yanking your chain, thanks for the entertaining daily read
Good weekend for you Rob, except for the SA derby, but they're near impossible to pick.
I wish I'd followed your advice on the Tahs game; I still can't believe how far they've dropped this year.
Leg Break
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