Super 14 Week 14

The final round sees some juicy match-ups with semifinal implications, none more so than the games tonight ...

CRUSADERS ($1.29) v CHIEFS ($4.60) (NZTAB $1.20 - $4.20)

Forget the Chiefs' insipid display last week. Rewind back to their first-half performances against the Blues and Sharks to get a taste of what you'll see - a titanic forward battle full of bone-crunching hits that'll keep the blood-thirsty happy.

I love it when the media start mentioning records - so the Crusaders haven't lost at Jade Stadium for 26 matches. Good - they're due for one then :-). Yes, my water is telling me the Chiefs have a good sniff of an upset here - certainly they are overpriced but perhaps the best bet is backing them with the points start. The line is at 10.5; same as Crusaders/Hurricanes which the Canes covered by half a point and given the Chiefs haven't lost by more than 7 points all year I feel it's a comfortable bet if you can get close to evens (which you can't at the TAB - it's $1.87). Factor in there may be dew around after a fine day down in ChCh and the Chiefs +10.5 will do me. I may even have a nibble at the match odds.

If, unlike me, you're more bullish about the Crusaders chances, the $2.70 for winning by 12 and under ($2.96 on Betfair) seems a helluva lot more playable than the skinny match odds.

FORCE ($2.52) v BLUES ($1.66) (NZTAB $2.25 - $1.60)

Of the 84 matches so far, 20 have involved the home team starting as the underdog. They've won 8 of them, which is less than 50%, but at average odds of $3.40. If you look at underdog teams starting at odds of $2-$3, they're 5 out of 10.

While the sample size is too small to draw conclusions, it does possibly suggest the bookmakers overvalue the ability of a better away team to get past a (slightly?) inferior home team. So in this case, especially given the way the Blues have been travelling, I wouldn't touch $1.66 for the Blues with a barge pole. So it becomes a question of whether to back the Force and that is today's job for the subconcious (i.e. I haven't decided yet). The handicap is 4.5 and unplayable.

HIGHLANDERS ($2.56) v BRUMBIES ($1.68) (NZTAB $2.35 - $1.55)

I'm waiting for the results of the previous two games before doing anything here - the Brumbies need both the Chiefs and Blues to lose to have any hope of making the semis. If one of them win, they're pretty much gone and if it turns out to be a meaningless game I'd expect the Highlanders to be far more interested as they farewell Anton and Carl.

Even without considering the scenarios, it's another case where the home team doesn't deserve to be a $2.50 underdog and as I've stated before I always think the Highlanders are overpriced by the bookmakers. I'd price this game close to evens, so even the $2.35 at the TAB I'd take.

HURRICANES ($1.35) v WARATAHS ($4.10) (NZTAB $1.30 - $3.30)

Another farewell party and a game that holds no interest, although I guess if the Tahs look back to last year they might turn up motivated. I'm staying out of it.

LIONS ($1.82) v CHEETAHS ($2.22) (NZTAB $1.65 - $2.15)
STORMERS ($3.40) v SHARKS ($1.46) (NZTAB $2.60 - $1.45)
BULLS ($1.06) v REDS ($14.50) (NZTAB $1.03 - $10)

The three games in South Africa hold little appeal from a betting point of view (also from a staying up all night and watching point of view) - the prices aren't too much different from what I'd have so I'll pass on all three.