Super 14 Preview - Waratahs

Knees. Not the favourite body part in Sydney at the moment. While Vickerman is out for at least the first half of the season recovering from shoulder surgery, pre-season games have seen fellow lock Kanaar (season) and prop Dunning (6 weeks) pick up knee injuries, not to mention Lyons is out for the first three weeks recovering from – yes – a knee injury.

Losing four of your starting pack, including both first-choice locks, is not the recipe for a wonderful season. In fact the locks are not far from critical category as third-choice lock Caldwell is only just back from a broken arm and they will be starting one rookie with another on the bench.

At least the Lyons injury is covered with Davidson picked up from the Force, and they have also gained Valentine from the Reds with the departure of Chris Whitaker. Other losses (Rogers NRL, Sailor suspended) seem to be covered in-house with a couple of rising stars in Beale and Turner.

Ah yes, Kurtley Beale. The 18 y.o. wunderkind already called the next Mark Ella will get his chance to show his wares (initially off the bench) after setting the Tahs alight pre-season. I’ll reserve judgement until I’ve seen him at the bottom of a few NZ rucks.

Before the injury woes, the Tahs looked to have a useful squad – but now they look alarmingly thin on the ground behind the starting XV. Another injury or two to the engine room and the Waratahs train will be going nowhere. Doesn’t matter how wonderful your backs are, if you can’t get your hands on the pill you don’t win games.

Luckily their start is not too taxing, with the road trip first up to the easier SAF teams followed by a bye and a home game against the Force. After that, it gets nasty and will need all hands on deck fit and healthy – and if you want to know why Coach McKenzie was so vocal about the ABs resting for the first 7 weeks, it’s because his team is the only one who gets to play all five NZ franchises from Week 8 onwards.

So another season where they choke at the end may be on the cards. But I feel there is the possibility of slipping up early, ultimately costing them a place in the semis. At 8/1 on the tote, I’ll give ‘em a miss.

Prediction: 8-5, missing the semis.

Players to watch: Everyone else can watch the wunderkind; I’ll be watching their tight 5 – they need them to perform and remain healthy for the Tahs to have a shot at the title this year.

Super 14 Preview - Brumbies

Remember last year? Written off as a team of geriatrics who would be heading south on the ladder. Well, only a penultimate round stumble at home to the Highlanders and conceding 21 points in the final 10 minutes of their final round clash away in Christchurch saw the Brumbies miss the playoffs. Up until then, they had done most things right despite some average luck with injuries.

To recap on that front, they lost both hookers in the first 2 weeks (Paul came back in Week 7), their starting no 8 out for the season in week 6, Larkham for the final month and Giteau missed 4 games through injury. Despite all that, they missed the semis by the huge margin of 8 points on points differential, or to put it another way, about half a point a game.

Not surprisingly no-one is so quick to write them off in 2007 despite the old brigade being another year older, with most of the attention centred on the loss of Giteau to the Force. Definitely a loss, but partly offset by the signing of Huxley from the Reds. The only other starter missing from last year is prop Bill Young and does cause a niggling concern about the quality of the back-ups in the squad.

But that is about the only hole you can pick in their depth chart. A few of the loosies are coming back from injury and need to be watched but they have gained Hoiles from the Tahs. The starting backline minus Giteau are all back and the reserves look useful.

So don’t be surprised by another strong performance from the Brumbies, even if they stumble early against the Chiefs and/or the Blues. They’re slipping under the radar having not made the semis in the past 2 years, but if their key players stay healthy, a return to the final 4 is probable.

Prediction: 10-3 and a home semi.

Player to watch: Giteau’s replacement Gene Fairbanks.

Super 14 Preview - Force

Everyone expects the westerners to improve this year, myself included, by how much being the $64 question. Currently holding the wooden spoon, the first half of the 2006 season can virtually be ignored as a new franchise got to grips with a professional competiton after starting from nothing, and by the time the end came around they had a draw with the Crusaders to boast about and a 1-1-1 record on the SAF road trip.

On the personnel front, a few starters are lost – prop Fitter to England and Welborn to the beach; how their replacements fare in a tight 5 that was competitive at times is one thing to watch. Out in the backline, they have recruited some serious firepower with Giteau, Mitchell and Cross, and fitting all these pieces in the backline puzzle is no 2 on the list.

I may be wrong, but I suspect Giteau has been recruited to start at 10 – maybe not initially, but he will be there eventually. With Staniforth being made vice-captain, he’s not budging from 12 or 13, they haven’t paid Cross to come and sit on the bench, and the first choice back 3 is obvious. First-five was a problem area for the Force last year, and I don’t think Hilgendorf is the solution.

It looks quite an exciting backline, so the Force’s fortunes hinge on ball from the forwards and service from the half – here first-season signings Fava and Henjak need to show more than they did last year. But their Achilles heel may be the tight 5 or perhaps more correctly, the back-up behind the starters.

So while they will improve, I don’t think they will leap into semi-final contention in Year 2 but they are going the right way.

Prediction: 5-8 and definitely not easybeats.

Player to watch: Nathan Sharpe – the captain needs to lead the pack. Get the backs enough ball skipper!

Joke time

Courtesy of the Betfair forum ...

News from the Family Court
SYDNEY(AAP) - A seven-year-old boy was at the center of a Parramatta, NSW courtroom drama yesterday when he challenged a court ruling over who should have custody of him.

The boy has a history of being beaten by his parents and the judge initially awarded custody to his aunt, in keeping with child custody law and regulations requiring that family unity be maintained to the degree possible. The boy surprised the court when he proclaimed that his aunt beat him more than his parents and he adamantly refused to live with her. When the judge then suggested that he live with his grandparents, the boy cried out that they also beat him.

After considering the remainder of the immediate family and learning that domestic violence was apparently a way of life among them, the judge took the unprecedented step of allowing the boy to propose who should have custody of him.

After two recesses to check legal references and confer with child welfare officials, the judge granted temporary custody to the English Cricket Team, whom the boy firmly believes are not capable of beating anyone.

Pot Pourri

I gotta break these S14 previews up - you'll get a double dose tomorrow (most of them are already written and I'm drip feeding them). Already a couple need changing as Ryan Nicholas doesn't look like getting to Queensland while this morning's news sees Chiefs No 8 Sione Lauaki out for the first month with a broken wrist.

When a kid, one of my favourite sport watching memories was when Lance Cairns smashed half a dozen sixes off the Aussie bowlers when we were about to get pulverised in an ODI contest at the MCG. Actually we did get arse-whipped, but no-one remembers that - just Lance and Excalibur putting Lillee and Co over the fence.

Watching Jacob Oram bat the other night and also smack 6 sixes will also linger long in the memory. It just might turn the Kiwis around; we all know they are a bunch of head-cases but 2 or 3 "good" performances like that in the next couple of weeks might see them actually start to play properly.

I say "good" as conceding 345 bowling first is not a good effort. But we've all forgotten that haven't we, we only remember Oram's innings. Just like no-one remembers we got thrashed when Lance went similarly beserk.

And onto today, a crunch match against England. We should win - if there's one team in need of the psychiatrist's couch more than NZ, it's England, but we are dealing with fragile minds here (on both sides). Expect another 7 hours of mediocrity punctuated by 1 or 2 individual highlights.

Reading a book at the moment, which had this line:

The main reason sports gamblers ...(lose is)... because they underestimate the complexity of the activity. Sports are contested by humans, and humans make mistakes.

Reading this the day after FedEx won his tenth Grand Slam and Tiger won his first start of the year on the PGA Tour (for seven PGA wins on the trot) made me smile. Either they have mastered their complex activity or they are not human. At times I wonder at the second alternative. I watched bits of both over the weekend, and we are lucky to have two of the greatest sportspersons to ever grace this planet beamed into our living rooms.

Another excerpt from the same book sees:

I don't recommend that anyone take up gambling as a livelihood. It's far too difficult for that.

Coincidentally, over at Steady's blog (www.punt.com) there is a well-written piece on the same subject. It's intriguing that I've yet to see a professional gambler actually recommend their profession as a nice way to make a living. Not because they don't want competition; but because it's damn hard work and the fruits of endeavour do not always result in just rewards.

To give an example: I've probably already invested 40 hours into the upcoming Super 14 season and I've got more to do. Yet all this work could become meaningless with an injury to a key player, or some fortuitous act like the bounce of a rugby ball during a game.

So it's a mug's game, right? Actually, no - but it's a wild ride of ups and downs that not everyone can handle. Someone asked me 6 months ago whether they should consider doing this for a living; at the time I didn't have an answer. Now I do, and the answer is the same as everyone else's - no, or really think through it carefully before taking the plunge. It's not as easy as it looks, and like anything requires a lot of hard work to succeed.

Super 14 Preview - Highlanders

They’re a funny lot down south. Despite having the smallest catchment area of the five NZ franchises, their stated policy is to have an entirely home-grown squad and are absolutely rejoicing that they’ve only dipped into the draft twice – down from six in the previous two years.

While there may be a danger of under-rating them (as they have been for the past couple of seasons); this year they really did need help with most of the 2006 backline elsewhere and a couple of AB front-rowers on the conditioning programme. While the pack is useful and Nick Evans hopefully will be around for the whole season this time around, what they do with the ball is what I’ll be watching for in their early games.

Despite getting the 7 home 6 away split, they yet again get to play 4 of their first 5 games on the road, including the easier SAF trip of the Force, Lions and Sharks. Definitely winnable games, but no banker material (as the Chiefs found out to their cost last year). They’ll need to get out of the blocks early, as the run-in at the end is horrendous – Chiefs, Crusaders, Waratahs, Hurricanes and Brumbies.

I’m not entirely confident writing them off and certainly aren’t as bad as the 30/1 on offer at the TAB suggests. But my gut feel is they’ve lost too many starting players from last year and the replacements aren’t up to Super 14 standard (yet). Time will tell, and a team to watch closely in the first few rounds.

Prediction: 4-9 and bottom three.

Player to watch – Vili Waqaseaduadua. Of Fijian descent from the Auckland catchment area, and a wing. ‘Nuff said.

Super 14 Preview - Reds

For the sake of completeness, we shall mention the Queensland Reds. No-one is giving them much of a chance, but here is an example of why it pays to do your own research.

Last year’s poor form stemmed from a bad start at home (losing three on the trot) and injuries. During the year they lost quality players – McMeniman, Roe, Cordingley, Tune and Latham – for significant chunks of time. 2007 hasn’t started any better with Latham again out.

Despite those disruptions, they weren’t THAT bad. A 4-9 record looks ordinary until you see four of those losses were by 4 points and one by 1. Look at the games against the semifinalists last year – the Crusaders ran away late against them, 4 point losses to the Tahs and Canes, and they beat the Bulls at home. They are an example that this competiton is closer than the Win-Loss records suggest and it doesn’t take much to turn a team around.

And this year they have a new coach – Eddie someone who apparently has done a bit of coaching before. I don’t care what anyone says – coaches do have a reasonable influence on a team’s fortunes but the problem is it is impossible to predict in advance whether that influence will be positive or negative.

Looking at the roster, it’s not too dissimilar to last year with the loss of starting players Connors (retirement), Latham (injury) and Mitchell (Force) covered by the return of McMeniman, the signing of Schifcoske from NRL and they have a few young nippy wingers. Add to that mix ex-Highlander Ryan Nicholas signed from Japan and overall the squad IMO is in better shape. The key, as with all teams, is the affect of injuries – already they have one and wouldn’t want too many more.

The trouble is it’s difficult to see where the Reds will win games and they have a horrible start – Hurricanes, Crusaders, Brumbies and Blues. The danger is a team used to losing that gets off to a bad start will have another poor season. So the pundits might be right – just not for the reasons they think.

But more than one win in the first four weeks and the Reds might just surprise. Unlikely, but not impossible.

Prediction: 3-10 and bottom three. Not cast in stone.

Player to watch: Clinton Schifcoske – the ex-Canberra Raider is a flawless goalkicker but how quickly he adapts to general play in the absence of Latham needs monitoring.

Super 14 Preview - Chiefs

One of the disappointments for me last year (and costing me money to boot) – a reasonable squad and a kind draw should have seen them in the semis; however in the final analysis failure to win either of their 2 games in South Africa (to the Sharks and – ahem – the Cats) at the beginning cost them dearly and they missed by 2 points.

So do I risk my hard-earned on them again this year? After all, a similar squad, a similar price (as are all the teams). Looking through their roster, they aren’t harmed by three backs on the AB conditioning thing, and of the nine squad members lost from last year only Sam Tuitupou commanded a regular starting spot.

I have one major question about the Chiefs – their inside backs. It looks like they’ll be starting Donald at 10 and Lavea at 12, and neither had exactly memorable Super 14 seasons last year. To me it was no co-incidence the best performances from the Chiefs last season were at the end when they finally got David Hill back in the 10 jersey. Another slight concern is the back-up behind the first-choice tight 5.

On the plus side, the loose forward coverage would have the Canes spewing with envy and the outside backs will be dangerous – even more so when Sivivatu and Muliaina return. They also seem to have no major injury worries starting out. So they will get ball, have finishers out wide – it all comes down to the men in-between.

They had a kind draw last year. So it figures it’s not so good this year – tricky home games against the Brumbies and Hurricanes first-up, followed by the harder SAF trip of the Stormers, Bulls and Cheetahs. While the middle of the season should produce plenty of wins, they will not want to enter their last 2 games visiting Sydney and Christchurch needing a win to qualify for the final 4.

At 12/1 they are worth considering. But I wouldn’t take much lower.

Prediction: maybe being a tad optimistic; 9-4 and probable semifinalists. But I don’t think they’ll go all the way in May.

Player to watch: Keith Robinson – even if fully fit I wouldn’t expect him to start in every game. How they manage his workload and if he stays injury-free is something to keep a close eye on.

Super 14 Preview - Blues

Fellow Aucklanders, lend me your ears. This year, we are BACK! Yes, the frustrations of yesteryear … um, yesteryears … are over and we will once again take our rightful place at the top of the tree.

Perhaps I am being a tad optimistic, but there are more reasons to find the Blues improving for 2007, rather than staying stagnant or (God forbid) sliding even further backwards.

What happened last year? A tough draw, a disrupted squad through injuries, a new coach all added up to a bad start from which they did not recover. Reviewing last year, they had Justin Collins and Devine out for most of the season, while Flavell, McAlister, Braid, Atiga and Howlett were sidelined for more than a few games. That’s 7 players who will make a first-choice Blues XV. Chuck in injuries to Macdonald, Gibson and Witcombe and if you put on your rose-tinted glasses we may have a wee excuse why the Blues underachieved in 2006.

But 3 of the engine room are out thanks to Graham Henry – they won’t win enough ball, right? A reasonable point, but the starting tight 5 are all past/present All Blacks (Flavell will start at lock) – whether they deserve to be is open to debate, so I think the grunt up front will be competitive, certainly against other similarly depleted forward packs they meet in the first 7 weeks (Crusaders, Hurricanes and Highlanders). There is no disruption in the loosies and good cover, and it is the same out in the backs.

In some respects the versatile squad may be a curse – knowing who to put where. It looks like Nacewa will start at 10 and McAlister at 12 with Holwell in the stands as plan B. Good moves IMHO. Tuitavake started on the left wing in the final trial game so they may be looking to him to cover Rokocoko’s absence on gym duty. That was one dumb draft decision – letting David Smith go to the Canes. The other puzzling aspect of the squad is the lack of a back-up hooker during the first 7 weeks – planning to use prop Taumoepeau as the back-up rake. Reading that he picked up a rib injury the other day is not a great start to the season, and that needs to be watched. But that seems to be the only injury concern at the moment.

However the most exciting thing about the Blues is the lack of press about them. Can hardly find a thing, even in the Auckland Herald. That’s when its time to be worried about Auckland people, when they keep their mouths shut and spend more time on the practice paddock than getting their photo taken.

So, get past a tricky start perhaps 2 and 1 – Crusaders home and away to the Brumbies and Hurricanes – and we are on the road to glory. For the next 8 weeks after that, they have 6 home games, a Bye while the only away trip is a 60 minute jaunt down SH1 to Waikato Stadium.

There’s only one problem – the price. The only problem with the bookies using last year’s prices is the Blues are at last year’s price, $6 at the NZ TAB and about 7/1 at Betfair. It’s a little skinny – so on the off chance they drop 2 of the first 3 games – I’ll lump on them then when the rest of you think they are on their way to another disappointing season.

Prediction: 10-3 and a home semi. Possible winners. Laugh at me – go on. We’ll see who has the fatter wallet in May.

Player to watch: The weather. Their three worst performances last year (Canes – 2nd half, Tahs and Chiefs) were all in the wet. Not a team to be backing with the aqua falling.

Taking Spin to new depths

Nathan Astle's retirement from the NZ cricket team in the middle of a competition and two months out from the World Cup has so much bullshit surrounding it that if you seriously believe what's in the papers, next time you answer the front door you'll see the Tooth Fairy and check your chimney too 'cause there's probably a fat man dressed in a red suit stuck up there.

Nathan Astle interviewed December 2006:

"I'm really enjoying it at the moment. I have to get to the World Cup first and then, maybe [I'll play] one more year or more - who knows? All I can say right now is that I'm enjoying my cricket and that I'm pretty much taking it as it comes.

I think you know when it's time to walk away and I've got to say that I don't feel like that at the moment - and I don't think I will in the near future. In fact, I don't think about retirement at all now."

Nathan Astle Press Conference January 2007:

"I've been fighting the enjoyment and motivational aspect for the last eight months and I was very close to not coming here but I really wanted to give it one last crack and see if I could find what was lacking."

Unless Astle has some multiple personality disorder (which cannot be discounted if you take his recent sporting performances into account), we have a major case of PR Spin/B-U-L-L being fed to the public in some amateur attempt to hide what's really happening.

Which of course sets off the rumour machine full tilt. So here's my scenario:

Bracewell wanted Astle dropped. Fleming didn't. Disharmony brings in CEO - who was going to Dubai - to sort it out. Tells players you play and selectors select (check your job descriptions). As a reward for long service, Astle given the "opportunity" to "retire" rather than be dumped.

Makes more sense than the palaver I read this morning in the papers.

Super 14 Preview - Hurricanes

Boy, have the Canes drawn the short straw this year. Not only are they the NZ franchise arguably most affected by the All Black conditioning programme, they have these players out for one more game (all the other NZ teams have a Bye in the first 7 weeks), and when Week 8 rolls around and the ABs are allowed back, they’re in the middle of their South African road trip. Lord knows how they’ll manage that. The only saving grace is they have a 7 home, 6 away split this year.

You don’t have to be Einstein to work out their biggest concern is replacing the triumvirate of ABs at 6, 7, and 8. Masoe and Collins played in every game last year, while So’oialo missed one (and whaddya know, the Canes lost that one)

While the rest of the side looks reasonably solid - actually the backline is more than that, their problem, like the Crusaders, is the back-up is very thin for the first 7 weeks. And in the early rounds, after a trip to Brisbane, they have a tricky 3 week stretch playing the Chiefs away, then hosting the Blues and Brumbies. Canes fans - get on your prayer mats for no injuries.

What is significant to me is if you look at the teamsheet that played the Crusaders in last year’s final, 11 out of the 22-man squad will not be suited up next weekend; 8 out of the 15 starters, and 5 out of the 8 forwards. You can’t judge the Hurricanes on their performance of the last two seasons, and it is unlikely this side will be able to (immediately) reach the performance levels Wellingtonians have become accustomed to.

So sorry Capital residents, the loss of Collins, Masoe and So’oialo will be too much to bear. Your chances will be gone by Week 7.

Prediction: 6-7 and mid-table.

Player to watch: Chris Smylie – I think the change of environment and guaranteed game time for the first 7 weeks might just be the tonic he needs to put a disappointing 2006 behind him. IF the forwards get enough ball and IF he on his game to put the Canes talented backline away, they just might have half a chance to be in contention at the business end.

Super 14 Preview - Crusaders

Question: If Carter and McCaw were out of the Rugby World Cup, would the All Blacks still be $1.75 to win the trophy? Somehow I doubt it, so I fail to see why the Crusaders should be the same price ($3.50) to win the Super 14 as they were last year. Last year the only game Carter didn’t start in the no.10 jersey is the only game the Crusaders lost. Relevant, or mere co-incidence?

Not for one minute am I suggesting the red and blacks have no chance in 2007, but the absence of their All Blacks for the first 7 weeks will play a major part in their season. Reviewing 2006 – yes, they were the best team; yes, they deserved to win, but they were not dominant. Re-reading match reports from last year, they won ugly more times than not, and while it is a sign of a good side, we are reviewing a team that had their All Blacks playing, not working out in the gym.

One thing struck me when reviewing the 2006 class; their lack of injuries which enabled them to field the XV they wanted to, week after week. The teamsheet for the first game against the Highlanders and the final against the Hurricanes differs by 2 names – both on form (it would have been 3 had Ellis not been injured). Whether they can get through this season with such a charmed life is one of the $64 questions …

Because for the first 7 weeks, they have no back-up, squad depth that is unproven. Their starting XV will be quite solid for the first half and will be competitive, but God help them if they pick up injuries and Benny Noname has to start somewhere. And they do have a tricky start – the opener at Eden Park and the road trip to South Africa before McCaw and Co are allowed to play.

So crunch time for the Crusaders is early – away v Blues, and the away games in South Africa against the Lions, Cheetahs and Sharks. Before dismissing these SAF teams lightly, you have to go back to their unbeaten season in 2002 before you find the Cantabs returning home from there with no losses, so I wouldn’t bet a penny they’ll be 5-0 this year when their Bye comes around in Week 6.

So for a team that has a 6 home 7 away draw, a depleted squad thanks to the All Blacks conditioning programme, $3.50 is a price I wouldn’t touch with a barge pole. I’ll re-iterate I’m not writing them off, but anything worse than a 3-2 record through the opening 5 games and they’ll struggle to make the semis. And you can’t win the comp if you’re not in the first 4 after the round-robin.

Prediction: 8-5 after the regular season, somewhere from 3rd to 6th. If they make the semis they won’t be playing at Jade.

Player to watch: Stephen Brett – big shoes to fill at No. 10. From the little I saw of the NPC last year he looked OK but a colleague whose opinion I value is not so sure. His performance in the first 6 weeks will define their season.

SAF v PAK 3rd Test

For the first time in a while I have no friggin' idea what to do. Law No. 22 of sports betting - when in doubt, do nowt - may very well come into play.

The last test at Cape Town has too many questions surrounding the pitch and teams throwing into doubt the wisdom of taking a pregame position. So I'm not.

The key will be the pitch. The last 3 tests at Newlands has seen a greentop (SAF v Aus), a motorway (SAF v NZ) and something from the subcontinent (SAF v Ind); so who knows what Benny the new groundsman will produce for this test. Understandably, he's "hesitant to predict how the pitch will behave".

The only sure fire thing for this test is the weather - very little chance of interruption so you tend to think a result will somehow be produced in the 440-odd overs of play. However, at the prices (SAF $2.18; Pak $4.10, Draw $3.30), I'm taking the much-despised pussy approach - I'll watch and wait.

Conspiracy theories

This week in NZ cricket we have had:

1. A newspaper report suggesting there is trouble at the mill - senior players unhappy at something;
2. NZ coach John "I'm looking for a job after the World Cup" Bracewell behaving badly at a press conference;
3. CEO of NZ cricket Martin "I've already got a job after the World Cup" Snedden cancelling a trip to an ICC meeting in Dubai and going to Adelaide instead; and now
4. Nathan Astle announcing a press conference where the rumours are flying he's about to announce his retirement.

Would some journo please get off his arse and find out what is really going on? Cheers.

Tennis Masterclass

FedEx v A-Rod: good to see "misfiring" Roger, y'know, the one who "stuttered" into the semis, showing who's still the boss. Has to be an early candidate for sporting performance of the year.

Super 14 looms

Despite the TV screens being dominated by cricket and tennis, most NZ sports-lovers know the Super 14 kicks off in just over a week's time. Which means its time to dust the cobwebs off the rugby files residing in the memory filing cabinet and figure out some ways of making some moolah on our national sport.

To tell the truth, I've already spent some quality hours assessing this year's comp and previews will start appearing in a few days time. There is one obvious question to address - what affect will the 22 All Blacks sitting out the first 7 weeks have on the competition? If you look at the winner's market, the answer is very little - Betfair odds (admittedly with low liquidity, but bookmaker odds I have found are similar) are as follows:

Crusaders $3.45; Hurricanes $7.40; Waratahs $8.80; Blues $9.00; Brumbies $10.50; Chiefs and Bulls $13.50; Sharks $18; Highlanders and Cheetahs $40; Stormers $44; Reds $70; Force $80; Cats - Lions $100.

While I didn't record them, these odds look suspiciously similar to those on offer last year. So the conclusion to be drawn is that 22 All Blacks taken out of the competition will mean diddly-squat in terms of each franchise's chance of winning the competition.

I can't buy into that. I think I've said before one of the things to be on the lookout for when betting is changing landscapes. When will Australia's dominance of world cricket diminish? When will Federer and Woods come down from superhuman status? And when will NZ's dominance of Super14 rugby show signs of fading?

Could 2007 be the year it happens - with 22 All Blacks in the gym instead of the paddock? There's two schools of thought - one; sit out the first few weeks and see how the competition shapes up. I call that the pussy approach. Meeeouuuwwww. The other is have courage in your beliefs and put your money down.

So while I haven't finished the groundwork yet, I do think the 2007 season will be quite interesting from a betting point of view, if markets are not going to recognise the absence of the ABs conditioning squad from the first half of the competition. There will be value somewhere, and I'm on the prowl to track it down.

Score please?

Had a rare day off yesterday - my batteries are in serious need of a recharge and with night-shift starting again on Friday (last South African cricket test of the summer thank God) a rest was in order. Unfortunately both underdogs got up in the mens quarter-finals yesterday at the tennis which goes into the missed opportunities basket, but the thing about betting is it doesn't really matter, as there will always be some more around the corner.

The fact that I know the tennis results is no thanks to New Zealand newspapers. Despite the Haas-Davydenko quarter finishing around 8 p.m. and the other one probably around midnight, as at 7 a.m. neither result could be found at either the Herald or Stuff websites. The jokes about NZ being 20 years behind the rest of the world are still valid. If you look at the Herald website, their "latest news" section has articles on some cyclist admitting doping in 2003 (published 5.45 a.m.) and a budget blow-out for the London 2012 Olympics (published 6.45 a.m.). Real interesting stuff, but ... Earth to NZ Herald Sports Department ... WHAT THE FK HAPPENED IN THE TENNIS LAST NIGHT?

At least the Herald has one semi-decent sports journo in Richard Boock and at a time when the NZ cricket team is giving him plenty of opportunity to display his literary skills, it's worth checking the website for his contribution alone - his latest piece is here.

And an oldie but a goodie from The Australian:

"On last night's showing, even if England was to finish a distant third the notion that it will receive prizemoney for its efforts should surely arouse concerns within the Serious Fraud Squad"

Tennis Headlines

Fk the Herald are p!ssing me off daily at the moment. This time it's the sports sub-editor who dresses up the reports on the Australian Open he no doubt receives off the wire as "Red-hot Roddick a class above" and "Misfiring Federer stutters into the semis".

Que? Federer won in straight sets FFS, and his opponent (ranked in the top 10) actually played quite well, as he has done the whole week. Meanwhile Roddick had a walk in the park against his old high school buddy and flatmate who had already way over-achieved in the tournament. For all we know, a deal was probably done in the locker room to get it over quickly so they could get to the poker tables at Crown.

Anyone reading the Herald would think A-Rod has a real chance against the Fed Express tomorrow. Well suckers if you do, you can get $6 on Betfair - help yourself. While I believe Roddick is the only person who can possibly beat Federer this week, I wouldn't put any money on it.

Cloning Jake

O doubters - ye of little faith! When Aunt Sally and her crystal balls say the stars are aligned and the NZ cricket team will win, it's lump on time. If you don't, it might be another month or two before you get the next opportunity ...

Although it might be sooner if all the crocs get back in the side and instantly produce form, like brother Jacob did last night. Which got me wondering - whatever happened to those scientists and Dolly the sheep and all their cloning experiments? Just imagine, a team of 11 Jake's - who can bat AND bowl, and with the wingspan of an albatross would cover half the park when fielding as well. They'd have to develop mirror-cloning so we could have a few right-handers in the line-up, but otherwise I reckon we would be sweet.

Anyway, enough dreaming. If NZ can avoid a towelling from Oz in the weekend I think we might be in with a shout next week as well.

NZ v ENG Preview

Obviously a rather significant component of sports betting on a head-to-head competition is to decide who you think is going to win, or more correctly assessing the winning probabilities for each combatant. Step No.2 is to decide whether the prices on offer from the bookies are value.

Now the first step can be achieved by various methods, and today I'm taking the pyschic approach. Based on gut feel, consulting astrological charts and player biorhythms, NZ will win. The oracle hath spoken.

Yet more "news"

Someone from the Herald must read this, because today's offering is:

Lindsay Lohan's mother has revealed that intervention was needed to persuade her party-loving daughter to check into rehab. Dina Lohan said her starlet daughter, who is in the swanky Wonderland Centre in Los Angeles, "knows she has issues but is absolutely fine".
"I'm happy that Lindsay has taken the initiative to be in a better spiritual and mental place."

FFS. I hasten to add I don't search these little gems out, they appear in annoying pop-up boxes when I go to the website. Tell you what, I can think of a "better spritual and mental place" I'd like to send a certain newspaper editor to ...

Keystone Cops Episode 3

I couldn't resist - I had to watch a bit of the cricket yesterday, mainly because watching Serena Williams play tennis was putting me off my lunch.

Today is pick on Hamish Marshall day. We pick an extra batsmen (Hamish) to help with the runs at the top of the order problem. Result? Three ball zero. But never fear, he's there also because of his outstanding fielding. Result? A fumbling bumbling run-out attempt duo with Vettori that Laurel and Hardy would be proud of.

The good news is he may be playing his way out of NZ's World Cup squad. But I wouldn't hold my breath. Like a moth attracted to light, I'll be back for more punishment when we take on England tomorrow. Hopefully Hamish won't.

Where's Suzy?

Ever wondered what happened to Suzy the waitress? Y'know, the person who single-handedly derailed our march to Rugby World Cup glory in 1995 by giving a few of our team a bit of food poisoning?

Well, in a world exclusive, I'm able to tell you she's alive and well ... in Mombassa, Kenya.

Last week the Canadian cricket team had to forfeit a match against the hosts because most of their squad had a "stomach viral infection". Rather intriguingly, two members of the other team involved in the tri-series there - Scotland - also had this infection, along with an umpire - all this a couple of days after Canada had played Scotland. Hmmmm.

Is this news?

Choking on cornflakes time ... (from the Herald this morning)

Former Hollywood wild child Drew Barrymore likes nothing more than ripping off her clothes and running naked through the fields - although apparently only in Ireland. "I'll drive in Ireland and park my car and run out into the field and rip all my clothes off and just run in the wheat fields naked," the actress says in an interview with Parade magazine.

Honestly, I feel sorry for the tree that got chopped down so this crap could be printed.

Pig In Mud

Lay the draw in a cricket test.
Watch 16 wickets fall on the first day.

This game never ceases to amaze me - nothing wrong with the pitch, yet for only the third time this decade more than 15 wickets have fallen on an opening day. The draw price has shot out from 2.70 to 27.0; I'll have to save my arse a bit as ...

This game never ceases to amaze me.

Talking about arse, I can't be arsed watching NZ play Australia tomorrow. England had the chance to catch Australia off guard yesterday and didn't quite take it - I can't see the Aussies losing a game now and the tennis is providing more opportunities for betting than this ODI series ever will.

Finally, there is one betting blog I've come across that actually is rather good - www.punt.com - some of his earlier posts on the pyschological aspects of betting are right on the mark. Worth a read.

Previews galore

Days like the one coming up I actually dread - the tennis kicks off at 1 p.m. and won't finish until well after midnight, an ODI starts at 4.30 p.m. and a test match starts in the evening. Come 9.30 p.m. I'll be trying to watch three TV channels and a few hours later grabbing the matchsticks to keep my eyelids open for the remainder of the night.

However as my 4 regular readers know, "stick to the knitting" is one of my mantras when it comes to betting - and that for me is test cricket, where most of my "P" in my P/L record comes from. So getting the riff-raff out of the way:

As a rule I don't usually watch the women's matches in the first week of a grand slam, except for perv value. Which reminds me, I've invented a new word for the English language:

OVA - a pretty young women, usually with longish legs, blonde hair and a slimmish figure, that regularly grunts like she is auditioning for a porn flick.

Origins stem from many Eastern European tennis players with names ending in "ova" that fit the description. Suggested usage includes "corrr, she's a bit of an ova" or "I wouldn't mind getting my leg over that ova".

Anyway, back to the tennis. I might break the rule as first up today sees Petrova play S. Williams (neither who, by the way qualify as ova's) which may be interesting from a betting point of view. Serena's price matches her figure i.e. a bit big at $2.60 although I suspect Petrova will end up progressing.

On the men's side, Djokovic is too short at 1.10 v Udomchoke, matches that may be worth trading are Stepanek (2.42) v Ferrer (1.69), Monfils (3.25) v Gasquet (1.43) and Ancic (1.49) v Hrbaty (3.00) which brings us to:

Safin (2.58) v Roddick (1.62). Anyone who has seen Safin's first 2 matches would probably view the $1.62 on A-Rod as the bet of the century but Safin does have this habit of lifting for the big games. Is he really out of form or can he discover his magic of yesteryear? I'll be watching to find out, and I suspect based on the 6-0 drubbing he handed out in the final set to that Israeli no-name after looking like a loser for the entire match he'll be a handful for Roddick, but will ultimately lose.

Australia play England in tonight's ODI, or more correctly Australia will be playing with England in tonight's ODI. This could seriously get ugly, especially if Australia bat first on a ground where the scores are getting as big as Serena. No chance that England will "do a Bangladesh" - another contribution of mine to lexicography. Definition should be obvious.

Which brings us to the South Africa v Pakistan test match starting tonight. Serious question - who sets the starting prices for test cricket? I suspect it is the underground bookmakers in Mumbai and long may they continue for they have no friggin' idea. SAF have drifted out to 2.46 and the draw has shortened to 2.70, while Pakistan has oscillated around the 3.5/1 mark. I'm licking my chops. The prices reflect a strengthened Pakistani team with a greater ability to bat (hence making the draw more likely) but I ain't buying it. The weather looks OK and SAF have just won 3 matches against subcontinent teams and in 2 of the 3 on pitches that have been subcontinental in character. Ironically, the only test SAF have lost at home this year has been on a green-top.

My pregame prices are SAF 2.0 Pak 4.0 Draw 4.0. It is likely the draw will get lower than the 2.70 starting price so it becomes a question of when to unload the ammunition and go against the draw. However I've been caught out before in the waiting game so I'll lay the draw now and also top up on SAF at 2.46. During the game I'll look to back Pakistan at 6.0+ (if they get there).

This game will make or break my month as I strongly suspect a result - if I'm wrong so be it, but starting prices on the draw less than 3.0 where there are little weather concerns are still in the main the "golden egg" of test cricket betting.

Monfils

Yes I am watching and betting on the Australian Open (tennis). Usually I only pay half-attention to the first week of Grand Slams - just searching out competitive matches on the men's side of the draw and playing with pennies while watching an internet scoreboard.

However last night saw a potentially cracking match on TV - two young guns in the form of Monfils and Bagdahtis. Now I remember the 20-y.o. Frenchman of African descent (I'm not allowed to say "black" for fear of a two-game ban from the ICC) fondly - he cost me a packet last year when getting absolutely smashed by Murray on clay last year; so with some trepidation a wee wager on Monfils at $3.70 as I settled down to watch.

And what a cracking game it was (well the first two sets were - I fell asleep at 2 a.m.). I joined Monfils in jumping around like a monkey at the zoo (oops, here comes that two-game ban) as he ripped out winners and 210km/h serves. Entertaining stuff, and here's hoping for another blockbuster when he takes on fellow French young gun Gasquet in the next round.

Injuries

One of life's little mysteries why so many cricketers get damn injured. I mean, it's not the most physically demanding of sports, although I hasten to exclude fast bowlers from that generalisation as steaming in 60 (one day) or 120 (tests) times a day off a 20-30 metre run-up requires a reasonable amount of fitness.

Perhaps because the physical demands are mild, conditioning is not what it should be, even for international players. Who knows. While some injuries are explainable (getting cracked ribs from a bowler), others make you scratch your head (tearing a hamstring fielding a ball). Again, I excuse fast bowlers from these musings - although in the case of NZ because we play so infrequently perhaps we shouldn't.

Injuries are on the mind as without Pietersen and Vaughan (England) and maybe Bond (NZ), the $1.10 on Australia to win the ODI series is looking mighty attractive. Someone slap me - I've never bet a $1.10 shot in my life.

Injuries are also topical if we do what every embarrassed supporter of NZ cricket should do - switch sports and talk rugby. Yesterday - January 17 - marked the first game of rugby with a pre-season hit-out between the Blues and the Reds. And like last year, I'm waiting for the first injuries of the season as players run around on turf more akin to concrete than dirt. Having our top 22 players out for the first 7 rounds of Super 14 actually may turn out to be a masterstroke as they avoid the potential injury pitfalls of summer rugby.

Yes the grey matter is already starting to wander into the prospects of Super 14 franchises with kickoff just over a fortnight away. While pre-season hit-outs are in the main meaningless, one thing to keep an eye out for is player injuries.

Really?

A newspaper article at the beginning of the year mused that 2007 could be a really, really good year for New Zealand sport. Not only the Rugby World Cup to look forward to, but the America's Cup is on soon where apparently we have a reasonable shout and at the end of the year the Netball World Championships.

But any respect I had for this particular journo went out the window when he mentioned the Cricket World Cup as well. Really? We've never even made the final of this particular event (even when, in 1992, we were the best side) so you really need a strong shade of rose-tinted glasses to seriously believe we have more than a starter's chance in a few months time.

M'lud I present Exhibit A - NZ's performance against England yesterday. England - possibly the worst side in ODI international cricket currently. A record of 4-14 last year and 5-10 the year before. Currently minus their best batsmen - out with cracked ribs.

Winning the toss and batting first should have sealed their fate on a pitch that would get harder to bat on during the day. But oh no, our beloved Blackcaps have to yet again rely on bowlers at the end to put up a barely acceptable total, and then when England did their level best to chuck away the game at their turn to bat we rolled out the winners mat for them to stagger over the line. Even the umpires got involved in the mediocrity on display with one of the worst decisions seen in a long time (Strauss LBW when he smashed the cover off the ball into his pads) and while some will argue with me, the no-ball called when Flintoff was caught was dodgy as well.

Not for a long time have I seen a sporting "contest" (I hesitate to use that word) where there should be two losers and no winners. The only redeeming feature was it's "competitiveness" (I also hesitate to use that word), but as I said the other day, while competition is nice, excellence is preferred.

I see Styris, Oram and Mills are booked on a Saturday flight to Australia. Praise the lord. But I fear their inclusion will not help what remains our problem - runs at the top of the order. At least the England - NZ games are providing betting opportunities (and I suppose comedy value), but geez, they are painful to watch.

What happens on the field ...

South African cricket coach Mickey Arthur is the latest to fall into the trap of believing the turf sporting fixtures are played on is some sort of hallowed ground:

Arthur said he was not happy about the stump microphones. "They are a bit intrusive," he said. "What is said on the field should stay on the field."

If you rewind history you'll probably find stump mics were put in place to hear nicks off the bat - what players say has been an added bonus - and in some repsects if players are stupid enough to say something stupid within range then they are ... stupid.

There's two things here: first, the comment "They're like animals" that was picked up is surely not that bad? Probably in the category of Ian Healy's famous assessment of portly ex-Sri Lankan Arjuna Ranatunga as an "overweight, fat c***" and certainly a few shades lighter than another Australian to Sri Lankan verbal - a simple "black c***" that did land Darren Lehmann in hot water. And he didn't use the "what is said on the field stays on the field" defence.

Secondly and more importantly this is the 21st century people. A piece of grass used for sporting competition is no longer immune from criminal laws and civil decency and if you transgress expect consequences. A few days ago, media reported an English football player is spending 4 months at Her Majesty's pleasure for breaking an opponent's jaw with a punch. Good job. Sport is no excuse for thuggery. Nor is it an excuse for racist insults or any other kind of behaviour society at large would find unacceptable.

So Mickey, if one of your players is dumb enough to say something out of line - it doesn't stay on the field - it winds up in the newspapers and in the match referee's office, where it belongs.

P.S. The words "NZ cricket team" or "Blackcaps" are banned from today's vocabulary.

Stop worrying Syd

Open up the paper (figuratively speaking of course, I'm still a tight bastard and read it on the internet for free) and the first headline that screams out at me is:

IRB chief worried by NZ's strength

Oh this should be good ...

International Rugby Board chairman Syd Millar is concerned about the ascendancy of New Zealand in world rugby. Millar said it was not good or healthy for rugby to have one or two dominant countries.

It might not be "good or healthy" for rugby, but it's farkin marvellous for the nation of New Zealand. C'mon Syd, we are a small nation of sports-lovers, who crave sporting success far beyond our size. Please allow us this one sport, just this one, where we can go around and consistently shaft whatever and whoever the world throws at us (including Australia). Our nation's health depends on it.

It's not as if we win EVERY game. Especially ones that roll around every four years. Gee, I think we even lost a game last year - but we had to give Rodney So'oialo to the other team in order to do so. So leave us alone Syd and stop worrying, NZ at the top of the rugby tree is helping keep the global suicide rate down which is far more important than whatever it is you're worrying about. You of all people should understand - you come from a small country yourself - Ireland isn't it? - just imagine if your country had to endure life without sporting supremacy in .... (thinking hard for something Ireland is good at) ... oh yes, that's it, Gaelic Football.

Getting serious for a moment, it's the old "lack of depth" argument:

The criticism constantly made of the (Rugby World) cup is that the growing gap between the major countries and the remainder means the competition is becoming too predictable.

Absolute horse manure. With a few exceptions, ALL sports have the problem of dominant teams and/or individuals and face the "problem" of trying to develop competition. And sport is never predictable - from time to time, Brazil loses a soccer game, Australia loses a cricket game, and yes, even the mighty All Blacks lose a rugby game. And if we turn our attention away from team sports to individual sports, currently we are witnessing two collossi in the biggest individual sports in the form of Federer and Woods.

Don't know 'bout you, but rather than bitch and moan about the supposed "predictability" of sport, I marvel and appreciate the excellence that Federer, Woods, the All Blacks, the Baggy Greens et al bring to my living room via the cathode ray.

Dominance in the sporting world is not a problem. It brings excellence into a sphere of life where excellence is craved, and the few who achieve it invite the rest of the world to catch up. The benefactors are the sports-loving population who watch sport for precisely this reason - yes, competition is nice, but excellence is preferred. I'd much rather watch the All Blacks thrash France by 40 points than Andorra and Norway fumble and bumble their way through 80 minutes, no matter how close the score is.

So stop worrying Syd. A dominant All Black team is actually good for the sport. And there is a chance we'll find a way to fuck it up come October - history is on your side there.

VB Series Preview

Yeah yeah I know its the Commonwealth Bank Series but old habits die hard. Anyway, this will be easy:

Australia will win it. NZ will make the final and lose 2-0. England will come last.

It's hard to see how money can be made from these matches - chances are Aussie will not win all their matches but trying to pick the one(s) they might drop is needle in a haystack stuff. Distinctly unappealing from a betting point of view - Oz are 1.24 favs for the first game against England which maybe is a tad short but I ain't going against them. So it's a case of wait-and-see, hoping one (or both) of the other teams prove to be competitive against the Aussies and pinch some pennies on the price movements.

Logic dictates that the England-NZ matches might be the ones to play around, and it will be interesting to see the opening prices for their first match on Sunday - I'm expecting NZ to be around 1.85 favs (depending on England's performance today). I have a sneaky feeling NZ will save their best for the matches against Oz, so despite their well-documented shortcomings at the ODI game, I'm expecting England to win a game or two against the Blackcaps. NZ will get through to the final courtesy of one win against Australia.

Hopefully I'm completely barking up the wrong tree and the tri-series unexpectedly turns out to be competitive. But I wouldn't bet on it.

P.S. NZ Coach "Comical" Bracewell's latest letter home can be found here at Sportsfreak.

Quiz

I'm about to go offline for a couple of days, but before I go, a little test:

The NZ Sri Lanka ODI series is tied 2-2 with one game to go. There is a fair to rather large chance the last game will not be played thanks to rain.

Both the series market (2 options only, i.e. no draw) and match odds market have Sri Lanka around 1.80 and NZ 2.20. How can you make money from this situation?

Apologies

A couple are needed ...

a) for my previous post. Wow, that guy is obviously a fruitcake of the highest order.

b) to the NZ Knights soccer team. Back-to-back victories - the latest over the defending champions on a 9-game winning streak who hadn't conceded a goal in 500+ minutes - perhaps no longer are they the worst professional football team on the planet.

Now, on the subject of apologies, I'm waiting for the Blackcaps to apologise to the NZ sporting public for masquerading as an international cricket team. 73 all out - what the fuck was that? Pathetic. Embarrasing. Humiliating. And we're off to Aussie in a week's time - gawd help us. Might mean the England - NZ games are competitive and may even have a bit of comedic value.

Finally, I'd like to relate a new definition of "market panic" that puts sharebrokers to shame. One of the joys (and frustrations) of cricket betting is when the weather has a say. Especially on the last day. A couple of years ago in a test match between Australia and India, India needed 270 on the final day (and Australia 10 wickets) and the draw was trading at 20/1. The final day was washed out and those present in Chennai at the time who were awaken by torrential rain at some ungodly hour of the morning and could get to an internet connection made a killing.

The last day of the just completed South Africa v India test at Cape Town saw something similar. With SAF 55-2 chasing 211 to win and a whole day to go, the draw is again trading around 20/1. But the weather forecast (after 4 fine days) of cloudy at times with light rain in the morning should have set off a little alarm bell in the heads of those with a loss on the drawn outcome.

Sure enough, the light rain materialised and with Table Mountain shrouded in mist, the draw price tumbled from 20/1 to a low of around 1.50 before oscillating between evens and 2/1 as it became a lottery as to whether SAF would have enough time to complete the run chase (they had about an hour of play before the rain arrived). Humour was added as the supersopper (a machine to pick up excess moisture from the outfield to allow play to start quicker) ran out of petrol and/or broke down.

In the end, play got underway and SAF had just enough time to complete their victory but watching the market panic is an interesting and amusing way to spend the wee hours of the morning as people from everywhere but Cape Town try and second-guess the weather (and resulting outcome of the match).

Personally, no longer do I get involved - it may be a missed opportunity to make money but equally it is playing with fire. If I have a position on the match I'm comfortable with (as in this case), why tinker with it when you are relying on webcams and weather forecasts from a city you don't have much knowledge about? Betting may be gambling, but putting money down on an outcome that I can't price up is no better than buying a lottery ticket. That's not the way to make money in this game.

OT - lock 'em up?

I'm (temporarily) sick of writing about cricket. I suspect some may be sick of reading about it. And I know some of you don't want to read in true FIGJAM-style about how 1.61 and 1.65 for Australia in the last two Ashes tests was the most generous act since the feeding of the five thousand.

So something completely different. Reading the Herald today and I'm informed that an armed killer is on the loose in Wellington. Good. About time that city had a bit of excitement. But what gets up my goat is the fact that an ex-prisoner on the loose is an excuse for the redneck society to express their unwavering belief that anyone who has committed a heinous crime should be locked away for ever and the key thrown away:

The case has sparked outrage at the granting of parole to a convict such as Burton

Look, the guy is a badass, no question. But fair suck of the sav Trev, he's spent 13 years in prison (less 11 days when he broke out of our supposed maximum security prison) and 13 years is an average price that murderers have paid to our community for the taking of a fellow life.

So in some respects Mr Burton is entitled to a chance to show he can now be a fine upstanding citizen. The fact that he has fucked up this chance is irrelevant - yes, now he should return to behind bars and the key thrown away. But that is not an excuse to say with wonderful hindsight he should not have been given that chance in the first place. There are plenty of examples where badasses have left prison and actually got on with life without attracting the (further) attention of the Police.

The real problem in this country is with our supervision of released prisoners. In the case of Mr Burton, the reommendation was for "carefully managed release under close supervision". Yeah, right. Our Probation Service has as much chance of doing that as I have of running a marathon tomorrow.

If the rednecks redirected their energy to complaining about underperforming public services, our little corner of the world might be a better place.

More cricket talk

Yes this is getting repetitive. But it is summer. The Super 14 doesn't start for another 4 weeks. My main betting interest is cricket. And in the middle of summer the only alternative to talking cricket is to talk tennis - and we all know how much I lurrrve tennis. If you want to read how the whole of NZ went into orgasmic frenzy as Marina Erakovic won her first-round match at the ASB Classic, go and buy a newspaper.

Actually I do like tennis. Just not NZ tennis. Or NZ tennis players. Or journos who think NZ tennis players ranked 262 in the world are about to become the next big NZ sporting superstar. But I digress. Let's get back to cricket.

First up, Richard Boock continues his printed appreciation of John Bracewell in this morning's Herald:

It was the Zionist poet Jessie Sampter who reckoned that simplicity represented the peak of civilisation.
But then, she'd never been introduced to John Bracewell's theory of rotation or selection; much less had to guess the likely shape of his 15-man squad for the upcoming tri-series in Australia, due to be announced today ...

Next, nice to see England show a bit of form in the Ashes - nice in a viewing context, as the quicker Aussie kill off the Poms the better for my ticker. Given how badly Warne bowled yesterday, they should be closer to 300 and I'm still bullish about a 5-0 whitewash, but as we all know sport has a habit of kicking you in the teeth from time to time.

The most interesting clash is happening over in Cape Town where it looks like India have brought over a pitch from Mumbai to play on and made hay while the sun shone. The draw went into freefall as a result which has me licking my chops and shitting my pants in equal doses. The pitch is dry and will either (a) remain a batting paradise making it the dullest draw since NZ played SAF at the same venue, or (b) will not last 5 days producing a result and me needing a wheelbarrow to go and collect.

If any of you are religious, get out your prayer mats for (b) please and I'll shout you a beer. Cheers.

Operation Screwloose

Good journalism in my book needs some humour value, displays some intelligence and if it's taking the piss, crafted in such a way that leaves the reader with a slight doubt that the writer could actually be serious.

This piece by Richard Boock on NZ cricket coach John Bracewell qualifies. It's worth a read.

Looks like the NZ v SL ODI today will be affected by weather which means money stays in the pocket. I've also steered well clear of the SAF v India test until I've seen the pitch. With the draw at 3.95, even with a relatively fine forecast I still have nightmares of the last test played at Cape Town when NZ scored 593 batting first and SAF replied with 500+ themselves. Yet the test before that saw an Australian win inside 3 days on an over-watered pitch. Prudent to wait me thinks, I think there'll be a result but there'll probably be a better time to get involved.

Happy New Year

to my 4 regular readers. And boy, have I got a deal for you.

Last week, blind followers of my expertise would have made a packet on the fourth Ashes test. 1.61 on Australia was like taking candy from a baby as they completely demolished England in the space of 3 days.

Now, because those pessimistic people that reside in meteorological offices around the world suggest there may be a bit of moisture in Sydney in the next few days, we can get 1.65 - yes you read right - 1.65 for Australia to win the last test starting tomorrow.

Xmas has come 357 days early. Get on. Fill yer boots. This has to be the most generous price for one of the most dominant sporting teams on the globe since, well last week. Let's look at the factors:

Weather? The forecasts say "a shower or two". That's weatherman speak for it's going to be fine but we need to cover our arse in case it rains and the farmers are cutting hay. This is Australia - the land of drought and bushfires. Rain will not cause this match to be a draw.

Pitch? Yes, the batsmen can have a good time at Sydney but it is a wicket that take spin and if Playboy Undies can take 5-39 on a damp squib of a pitch in Melbourne gawd knows what havoc he is capable of making at the SCG.

Motivation? Oh yes, that's right, Aussie has underperformed at times in dead rubbers. Newsflash - this is not a dead rubber. This is Warne and McGrath's last test. This is a royal chance to stick it up the Poms with a 5-0 drubbing. The Baggy Greens will be more pumped for this test than a porn star's tool of trade. Compare the glint in their eye to the English who are already mentally on the plane back home (well, they would be if they didn't have to hang around for a month getting thrashed in One Day matches).

This is no contest. Like watching some scrawny high school geek going 10 rounds with Mike Tyson. Except that wouldn't last 10 rounds. And England won't last 5 days.