Super 14 Preview - Crusaders
Question: If Carter and McCaw were out of the Rugby World Cup, would the All Blacks still be $1.75 to win the trophy? Somehow I doubt it, so I fail to see why the Crusaders should be the same price ($3.50) to win the Super 14 as they were last year. Last year the only game Carter didn’t start in the no.10 jersey is the only game the Crusaders lost. Relevant, or mere co-incidence?
Not for one minute am I suggesting the red and blacks have no chance in 2007, but the absence of their All Blacks for the first 7 weeks will play a major part in their season. Reviewing 2006 – yes, they were the best team; yes, they deserved to win, but they were not dominant. Re-reading match reports from last year, they won ugly more times than not, and while it is a sign of a good side, we are reviewing a team that had their All Blacks playing, not working out in the gym.
One thing struck me when reviewing the 2006 class; their lack of injuries which enabled them to field the XV they wanted to, week after week. The teamsheet for the first game against the Highlanders and the final against the Hurricanes differs by 2 names – both on form (it would have been 3 had Ellis not been injured). Whether they can get through this season with such a charmed life is one of the $64 questions …
Because for the first 7 weeks, they have no back-up, squad depth that is unproven. Their starting XV will be quite solid for the first half and will be competitive, but God help them if they pick up injuries and Benny Noname has to start somewhere. And they do have a tricky start – the opener at Eden Park and the road trip to South Africa before McCaw and Co are allowed to play.
So crunch time for the Crusaders is early – away v Blues, and the away games in South Africa against the Lions, Cheetahs and Sharks. Before dismissing these SAF teams lightly, you have to go back to their unbeaten season in 2002 before you find the Cantabs returning home from there with no losses, so I wouldn’t bet a penny they’ll be 5-0 this year when their Bye comes around in Week 6.
So for a team that has a 6 home 7 away draw, a depleted squad thanks to the All Blacks conditioning programme, $3.50 is a price I wouldn’t touch with a barge pole. I’ll re-iterate I’m not writing them off, but anything worse than a 3-2 record through the opening 5 games and they’ll struggle to make the semis. And you can’t win the comp if you’re not in the first 4 after the round-robin.
Prediction: 8-5 after the regular season, somewhere from 3rd to 6th. If they make the semis they won’t be playing at Jade.
Player to watch: Stephen Brett – big shoes to fill at No. 10. From the little I saw of the NPC last year he looked OK but a colleague whose opinion I value is not so sure. His performance in the first 6 weeks will define their season.
Not for one minute am I suggesting the red and blacks have no chance in 2007, but the absence of their All Blacks for the first 7 weeks will play a major part in their season. Reviewing 2006 – yes, they were the best team; yes, they deserved to win, but they were not dominant. Re-reading match reports from last year, they won ugly more times than not, and while it is a sign of a good side, we are reviewing a team that had their All Blacks playing, not working out in the gym.
One thing struck me when reviewing the 2006 class; their lack of injuries which enabled them to field the XV they wanted to, week after week. The teamsheet for the first game against the Highlanders and the final against the Hurricanes differs by 2 names – both on form (it would have been 3 had Ellis not been injured). Whether they can get through this season with such a charmed life is one of the $64 questions …
Because for the first 7 weeks, they have no back-up, squad depth that is unproven. Their starting XV will be quite solid for the first half and will be competitive, but God help them if they pick up injuries and Benny Noname has to start somewhere. And they do have a tricky start – the opener at Eden Park and the road trip to South Africa before McCaw and Co are allowed to play.
So crunch time for the Crusaders is early – away v Blues, and the away games in South Africa against the Lions, Cheetahs and Sharks. Before dismissing these SAF teams lightly, you have to go back to their unbeaten season in 2002 before you find the Cantabs returning home from there with no losses, so I wouldn’t bet a penny they’ll be 5-0 this year when their Bye comes around in Week 6.
So for a team that has a 6 home 7 away draw, a depleted squad thanks to the All Blacks conditioning programme, $3.50 is a price I wouldn’t touch with a barge pole. I’ll re-iterate I’m not writing them off, but anything worse than a 3-2 record through the opening 5 games and they’ll struggle to make the semis. And you can’t win the comp if you’re not in the first 4 after the round-robin.
Prediction: 8-5 after the regular season, somewhere from 3rd to 6th. If they make the semis they won’t be playing at Jade.
Player to watch: Stephen Brett – big shoes to fill at No. 10. From the little I saw of the NPC last year he looked OK but a colleague whose opinion I value is not so sure. His performance in the first 6 weeks will define their season.
Labels: 2007S14
posted by Rob Crawford at 1:31 PM
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