Super 14 Preview - Reds
For the sake of completeness, we shall mention the Queensland Reds. No-one is giving them much of a chance, but here is an example of why it pays to do your own research.
Last year’s poor form stemmed from a bad start at home (losing three on the trot) and injuries. During the year they lost quality players – McMeniman, Roe, Cordingley, Tune and Latham – for significant chunks of time. 2007 hasn’t started any better with Latham again out.
Despite those disruptions, they weren’t THAT bad. A 4-9 record looks ordinary until you see four of those losses were by 4 points and one by 1. Look at the games against the semifinalists last year – the Crusaders ran away late against them, 4 point losses to the Tahs and Canes, and they beat the Bulls at home. They are an example that this competiton is closer than the Win-Loss records suggest and it doesn’t take much to turn a team around.
And this year they have a new coach – Eddie someone who apparently has done a bit of coaching before. I don’t care what anyone says – coaches do have a reasonable influence on a team’s fortunes but the problem is it is impossible to predict in advance whether that influence will be positive or negative.
Looking at the roster, it’s not too dissimilar to last year with the loss of starting players Connors (retirement), Latham (injury) and Mitchell (Force) covered by the return of McMeniman, the signing of Schifcoske from NRL and they have a few young nippy wingers. Add to that mix ex-Highlander Ryan Nicholas signed from Japan and overall the squad IMO is in better shape. The key, as with all teams, is the affect of injuries – already they have one and wouldn’t want too many more.
The trouble is it’s difficult to see where the Reds will win games and they have a horrible start – Hurricanes, Crusaders, Brumbies and Blues. The danger is a team used to losing that gets off to a bad start will have another poor season. So the pundits might be right – just not for the reasons they think.
But more than one win in the first four weeks and the Reds might just surprise. Unlikely, but not impossible.
Prediction: 3-10 and bottom three. Not cast in stone.
Player to watch: Clinton Schifcoske – the ex-Canberra Raider is a flawless goalkicker but how quickly he adapts to general play in the absence of Latham needs monitoring.
Last year’s poor form stemmed from a bad start at home (losing three on the trot) and injuries. During the year they lost quality players – McMeniman, Roe, Cordingley, Tune and Latham – for significant chunks of time. 2007 hasn’t started any better with Latham again out.
Despite those disruptions, they weren’t THAT bad. A 4-9 record looks ordinary until you see four of those losses were by 4 points and one by 1. Look at the games against the semifinalists last year – the Crusaders ran away late against them, 4 point losses to the Tahs and Canes, and they beat the Bulls at home. They are an example that this competiton is closer than the Win-Loss records suggest and it doesn’t take much to turn a team around.
And this year they have a new coach – Eddie someone who apparently has done a bit of coaching before. I don’t care what anyone says – coaches do have a reasonable influence on a team’s fortunes but the problem is it is impossible to predict in advance whether that influence will be positive or negative.
Looking at the roster, it’s not too dissimilar to last year with the loss of starting players Connors (retirement), Latham (injury) and Mitchell (Force) covered by the return of McMeniman, the signing of Schifcoske from NRL and they have a few young nippy wingers. Add to that mix ex-Highlander Ryan Nicholas signed from Japan and overall the squad IMO is in better shape. The key, as with all teams, is the affect of injuries – already they have one and wouldn’t want too many more.
The trouble is it’s difficult to see where the Reds will win games and they have a horrible start – Hurricanes, Crusaders, Brumbies and Blues. The danger is a team used to losing that gets off to a bad start will have another poor season. So the pundits might be right – just not for the reasons they think.
But more than one win in the first four weeks and the Reds might just surprise. Unlikely, but not impossible.
Prediction: 3-10 and bottom three. Not cast in stone.
Player to watch: Clinton Schifcoske – the ex-Canberra Raider is a flawless goalkicker but how quickly he adapts to general play in the absence of Latham needs monitoring.
Labels: 2007S14
posted by Rob Crawford at 11:07 AM
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