Super 14 looms
Despite the TV screens being dominated by cricket and tennis, most NZ sports-lovers know the Super 14 kicks off in just over a week's time. Which means its time to dust the cobwebs off the rugby files residing in the memory filing cabinet and figure out some ways of making some moolah on our national sport.
To tell the truth, I've already spent some quality hours assessing this year's comp and previews will start appearing in a few days time. There is one obvious question to address - what affect will the 22 All Blacks sitting out the first 7 weeks have on the competition? If you look at the winner's market, the answer is very little - Betfair odds (admittedly with low liquidity, but bookmaker odds I have found are similar) are as follows:
Crusaders $3.45; Hurricanes $7.40; Waratahs $8.80; Blues $9.00; Brumbies $10.50; Chiefs and Bulls $13.50; Sharks $18; Highlanders and Cheetahs $40; Stormers $44; Reds $70; Force $80; Cats - Lions $100.
While I didn't record them, these odds look suspiciously similar to those on offer last year. So the conclusion to be drawn is that 22 All Blacks taken out of the competition will mean diddly-squat in terms of each franchise's chance of winning the competition.
I can't buy into that. I think I've said before one of the things to be on the lookout for when betting is changing landscapes. When will Australia's dominance of world cricket diminish? When will Federer and Woods come down from superhuman status? And when will NZ's dominance of Super14 rugby show signs of fading?
Could 2007 be the year it happens - with 22 All Blacks in the gym instead of the paddock? There's two schools of thought - one; sit out the first few weeks and see how the competition shapes up. I call that the pussy approach. Meeeouuuwwww. The other is have courage in your beliefs and put your money down.
So while I haven't finished the groundwork yet, I do think the 2007 season will be quite interesting from a betting point of view, if markets are not going to recognise the absence of the ABs conditioning squad from the first half of the competition. There will be value somewhere, and I'm on the prowl to track it down.
To tell the truth, I've already spent some quality hours assessing this year's comp and previews will start appearing in a few days time. There is one obvious question to address - what affect will the 22 All Blacks sitting out the first 7 weeks have on the competition? If you look at the winner's market, the answer is very little - Betfair odds (admittedly with low liquidity, but bookmaker odds I have found are similar) are as follows:
Crusaders $3.45; Hurricanes $7.40; Waratahs $8.80; Blues $9.00; Brumbies $10.50; Chiefs and Bulls $13.50; Sharks $18; Highlanders and Cheetahs $40; Stormers $44; Reds $70; Force $80; Cats - Lions $100.
While I didn't record them, these odds look suspiciously similar to those on offer last year. So the conclusion to be drawn is that 22 All Blacks taken out of the competition will mean diddly-squat in terms of each franchise's chance of winning the competition.
I can't buy into that. I think I've said before one of the things to be on the lookout for when betting is changing landscapes. When will Australia's dominance of world cricket diminish? When will Federer and Woods come down from superhuman status? And when will NZ's dominance of Super14 rugby show signs of fading?
Could 2007 be the year it happens - with 22 All Blacks in the gym instead of the paddock? There's two schools of thought - one; sit out the first few weeks and see how the competition shapes up. I call that the pussy approach. Meeeouuuwwww. The other is have courage in your beliefs and put your money down.
So while I haven't finished the groundwork yet, I do think the 2007 season will be quite interesting from a betting point of view, if markets are not going to recognise the absence of the ABs conditioning squad from the first half of the competition. There will be value somewhere, and I'm on the prowl to track it down.
Labels: 2007S14
posted by Rob Crawford at 7:29 AM
3 Comments:
Chiefs look good at those odds; Gatland in the mix, reigning NPC champs, key players back from injury and very few "reconditioning casualties"
Leg Break
I'm going to agree on that one, Chiefs and Bulls for me. Am looking into the Australian contingent at the moment and would love to be backing the Waratahs at the 9/1 available, but they seem to be struggling in a few areas now. Lack of locks, no Matt Rogers, no Wendall Sailor (actually that's a plus point).
Have done my own version of the NZ training camp's effect on things http://world-of-rugbyman.blogspot.com/2007/01/nz-training-camp.html
Can not see how the Crusaders or Hurricanes will compete in the first 7 weeks, someone has to step up and take their place. Come on you chiefs!
Also check this out as I'm sure there is a good bet in there somewhere
http://www.oddschecker.com/betting/mode/o/card/rugbyunion-super14/odds/3646058x/sid/819033
My first thoughts are that the Bulls are better value than most at the top end, but working out who could spring a surprise at the bottom-end is tougher.
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