Previews galore
Days like the one coming up I actually dread - the tennis kicks off at 1 p.m. and won't finish until well after midnight, an ODI starts at 4.30 p.m. and a test match starts in the evening. Come 9.30 p.m. I'll be trying to watch three TV channels and a few hours later grabbing the matchsticks to keep my eyelids open for the remainder of the night.
However as my 4 regular readers know, "stick to the knitting" is one of my mantras when it comes to betting - and that for me is test cricket, where most of my "P" in my P/L record comes from. So getting the riff-raff out of the way:
As a rule I don't usually watch the women's matches in the first week of a grand slam, except for perv value. Which reminds me, I've invented a new word for the English language:
OVA - a pretty young women, usually with longish legs, blonde hair and a slimmish figure, that regularly grunts like she is auditioning for a porn flick.
Origins stem from many Eastern European tennis players with names ending in "ova" that fit the description. Suggested usage includes "corrr, she's a bit of an ova" or "I wouldn't mind getting my leg over that ova".
Anyway, back to the tennis. I might break the rule as first up today sees Petrova play S. Williams (neither who, by the way qualify as ova's) which may be interesting from a betting point of view. Serena's price matches her figure i.e. a bit big at $2.60 although I suspect Petrova will end up progressing.
On the men's side, Djokovic is too short at 1.10 v Udomchoke, matches that may be worth trading are Stepanek (2.42) v Ferrer (1.69), Monfils (3.25) v Gasquet (1.43) and Ancic (1.49) v Hrbaty (3.00) which brings us to:
Safin (2.58) v Roddick (1.62). Anyone who has seen Safin's first 2 matches would probably view the $1.62 on A-Rod as the bet of the century but Safin does have this habit of lifting for the big games. Is he really out of form or can he discover his magic of yesteryear? I'll be watching to find out, and I suspect based on the 6-0 drubbing he handed out in the final set to that Israeli no-name after looking like a loser for the entire match he'll be a handful for Roddick, but will ultimately lose.
Australia play England in tonight's ODI, or more correctly Australia will be playing with England in tonight's ODI. This could seriously get ugly, especially if Australia bat first on a ground where the scores are getting as big as Serena. No chance that England will "do a Bangladesh" - another contribution of mine to lexicography. Definition should be obvious.
Which brings us to the South Africa v Pakistan test match starting tonight. Serious question - who sets the starting prices for test cricket? I suspect it is the underground bookmakers in Mumbai and long may they continue for they have no friggin' idea. SAF have drifted out to 2.46 and the draw has shortened to 2.70, while Pakistan has oscillated around the 3.5/1 mark. I'm licking my chops. The prices reflect a strengthened Pakistani team with a greater ability to bat (hence making the draw more likely) but I ain't buying it. The weather looks OK and SAF have just won 3 matches against subcontinent teams and in 2 of the 3 on pitches that have been subcontinental in character. Ironically, the only test SAF have lost at home this year has been on a green-top.
My pregame prices are SAF 2.0 Pak 4.0 Draw 4.0. It is likely the draw will get lower than the 2.70 starting price so it becomes a question of when to unload the ammunition and go against the draw. However I've been caught out before in the waiting game so I'll lay the draw now and also top up on SAF at 2.46. During the game I'll look to back Pakistan at 6.0+ (if they get there).
This game will make or break my month as I strongly suspect a result - if I'm wrong so be it, but starting prices on the draw less than 3.0 where there are little weather concerns are still in the main the "golden egg" of test cricket betting.
However as my 4 regular readers know, "stick to the knitting" is one of my mantras when it comes to betting - and that for me is test cricket, where most of my "P" in my P/L record comes from. So getting the riff-raff out of the way:
As a rule I don't usually watch the women's matches in the first week of a grand slam, except for perv value. Which reminds me, I've invented a new word for the English language:
OVA - a pretty young women, usually with longish legs, blonde hair and a slimmish figure, that regularly grunts like she is auditioning for a porn flick.
Origins stem from many Eastern European tennis players with names ending in "ova" that fit the description. Suggested usage includes "corrr, she's a bit of an ova" or "I wouldn't mind getting my leg over that ova".
Anyway, back to the tennis. I might break the rule as first up today sees Petrova play S. Williams (neither who, by the way qualify as ova's) which may be interesting from a betting point of view. Serena's price matches her figure i.e. a bit big at $2.60 although I suspect Petrova will end up progressing.
On the men's side, Djokovic is too short at 1.10 v Udomchoke, matches that may be worth trading are Stepanek (2.42) v Ferrer (1.69), Monfils (3.25) v Gasquet (1.43) and Ancic (1.49) v Hrbaty (3.00) which brings us to:
Safin (2.58) v Roddick (1.62). Anyone who has seen Safin's first 2 matches would probably view the $1.62 on A-Rod as the bet of the century but Safin does have this habit of lifting for the big games. Is he really out of form or can he discover his magic of yesteryear? I'll be watching to find out, and I suspect based on the 6-0 drubbing he handed out in the final set to that Israeli no-name after looking like a loser for the entire match he'll be a handful for Roddick, but will ultimately lose.
Australia play England in tonight's ODI, or more correctly Australia will be playing with England in tonight's ODI. This could seriously get ugly, especially if Australia bat first on a ground where the scores are getting as big as Serena. No chance that England will "do a Bangladesh" - another contribution of mine to lexicography. Definition should be obvious.
Which brings us to the South Africa v Pakistan test match starting tonight. Serious question - who sets the starting prices for test cricket? I suspect it is the underground bookmakers in Mumbai and long may they continue for they have no friggin' idea. SAF have drifted out to 2.46 and the draw has shortened to 2.70, while Pakistan has oscillated around the 3.5/1 mark. I'm licking my chops. The prices reflect a strengthened Pakistani team with a greater ability to bat (hence making the draw more likely) but I ain't buying it. The weather looks OK and SAF have just won 3 matches against subcontinent teams and in 2 of the 3 on pitches that have been subcontinental in character. Ironically, the only test SAF have lost at home this year has been on a green-top.
My pregame prices are SAF 2.0 Pak 4.0 Draw 4.0. It is likely the draw will get lower than the 2.70 starting price so it becomes a question of when to unload the ammunition and go against the draw. However I've been caught out before in the waiting game so I'll lay the draw now and also top up on SAF at 2.46. During the game I'll look to back Pakistan at 6.0+ (if they get there).
This game will make or break my month as I strongly suspect a result - if I'm wrong so be it, but starting prices on the draw less than 3.0 where there are little weather concerns are still in the main the "golden egg" of test cricket betting.
posted by Rob Crawford at 9:16 AM
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