Super 14 Injury List - Week 5

BLUES – 11 Tuitavake (hamstring)
CHIEFS - 4 Gibbes (calf, Week 7?), 13 Kahui (reinjured shoulder), 15 Anesi (neck - season), 21 Lavea (knee ligaments, Week 8?)
HURRICANES - 7 Lilo?, 13 Umaga (achilles tendon), 13 Smith, 17 Fairbrother (shoulder - season)
CRUSADERS - none
HIGHLANDERS - 10 Evans
WARATAHS - 1 Dunning (knee, Week 7?), 4 Kanaar (knee - season), 5 Vickerman (knee - season?), 7 Waugh (ankle – season), 8 Lyons
BRUMBIES – 4 Campbell (stress fracture foot, Week 12), 6 Heenan (off season surgery - return unknown), 10 Larkham (chest, Week 8), 13 Mortlock, 16 Palavi (neck - retired)
REDS - 1 Holmes (shoulder, Week 5+), 5 McMeniman (ankle - Week 8), 9 Cordingley (foot surgery, Week 7), 12 Andrew Brown (punctured lung, Week 6) 12 Hynes (ankle, doubtful), 15 Latham (knee - season), 16 Moore (knee - Week 8), 17 Coutts (shoulder, doubtful), 22 Johansson (suspended, Week 6)
FORCE – none
BULLS - 12 Olivier (knee – return unknown), 16 Ralepelle (knee – return unknown), 17a Gerber (arm fracture, Week 6+), 17b Bands (calf, Week 8?), 18 Dlulane (neck - season), 19 Spies (knee, Week 6+), 22 Welsh (hamstring).
CHEETAHS - 1 Du Randt (possible return), 4a Duncan (ankle, return unknown), 5 Pieterse (broken foot - season?), 12 Goodes (off season surgery, not fit), 15 Fortuin (off season surgery, not fit)
LIONS - 3 McKenzie (return unknown), 4 Grobler, 14 Willemse (return unknown), 21 Boshoff
SHARKS - 4 Ackerman, 14 Odwa Ndungane (possible return?), 14 Steyn (ankle, Week 8), 20 Mathie (?),
STORMERS – 8 Van Niekerk (knee - Week 7+), 11a Jantjes, 11b Seconds, reserve outside backs Booi and Chavhanga injured.

S14 winners market

So where's the value at the moment?

Short answer is there is none. The NZ TAB have the Crusaders and Blues at $3.75 and the Canes at $4. That doesn't look like value to me.

To win the S14 you have to make the semifinals. The only two teams out of the real contenders to have made positive strides towards that are the Blues and Canes, and both their prices have shortened from preseason (Canes $5 Blues $6). Note: I don't rate the Sharks as a real contender, and will wait until their road trip before subjecting them to scrutiny.

The first four weeks hasn't exactly provided any clues as to what will happen in May, save the Blues and Canes will probably be in the final 4, and the Reds, Stormers and Chiefs won't be. I still think the Crusaders will miss out, but a win in Durban at the weekend may change that.

What's the problem?

Some sports-loving blokes are a bit miffed that the sheilas will be getting equal pay at Wimbledon this year. They only play best of 3 sets, unlike the men who slog it out for 5 they say. Equal pay? Make 'em earn it comes the reply.

Look, when it comes to displaying caveman characteristics I'm right up there but that argument is bollox - if it had any validity being a 100m sprinter would be the worst-paying job on the planet but it ain't is it? Fact is, come Grand Slam time just as many people go to watch Maria grunting through 60 minutes as they do to marvel at Roger for a bit longer.

Hark back to the Aussie Open - arguably the best and definitely the biggest story of the fortnight was an unseeded dumptruck steamrolling her way to the women's crown. So lump it fellow chauvinists - give 'em the same paycheck as commercially they probably deserve it.

Weekend Wrap

I hate doing fucking stupid things. Aaargh. Let me explain.

In punting land, there is such a thing known as the Gambler's Fallacy, which can be simply explained thus: if you toss a coin five times and the first four times it lands on heads, what are the chances of a head on the fifth toss?

The answer of course is 50% but some people still believe in Lady Luck and the tooth fairy and think because it's landed on heads four times in a row surely a tail is "due" this time. God bless 'em.

So when the Lions troop to Perth and are paying well over $5 again to win their Super 14 match against the Force those demons start entering my head. Nahhh they can't win three on the trot.They've never won in Oz, etc etc. So despite rating them a $3.85 chance and end up paying $5.60 at kickoff - I don't bet. They win. AAAAAARGGGGHH.

And of course to compound matters, the only bet I have loses as what I feared might happen in Blomfontein came into reality as the Crusaders turned up to play and the Cheetahs didn't. I'm still not convinced about the Crusaders - I don't think the Sharks will be as charitable in Durban this coming weekend and they'll lose there. Will be interesting to see how the TAB price it up this afternoon.

Still, I'm not as stupid as the people who took a small amount of my money early last week wanting to back the Sharks as the leader of the ladder after Round 4. There's no such thing as free money in gambling but that is about as close as it comes.

S14 Week 4 Preview

Not a particularly appetising round of matches from a betting point of view this week, but there are a couple which have playoff ramifications, starting with:

HURRICANES v BRUMBIES

Both teams are genuine semi contenders; both sit on 9 points after 2 wins and a loss; both could have just as easily been 0 and 3, and both have played the same opponents in the first three weeks (Chiefs and Reds away, and the Blues at home).

Normally applying the mathematical logic of A beat B and B beat C so A must beat C is fraught with danger in sport, but a review of each team’s performance against the three common opponents leads to the conclusion that ordinarily there wouldn’t be too much separating these two at the end of 80 minutes. Add in the Canes are at home, and the Brumbies are missing their skipper – and I’m expecting the Canes to win this one. But at the prices, no bet – although if the Brumbies drift further I’m in.

My Prices: Hurricanes $1.67 Brumbies $2.67 Draw $40
NZ TAB: Canes $1.45 Brumbies $2.65
Betfair (best available to back): Canes $1.46 Brumbies $2.84 Draw $19

HIGHLANDERS v STORMERS

Normally NZ teams returning home from SAF are not the safest of bets, but at least here the Stormers have also had to endure the trip, although arriving a day earlier. Interesting to see the Speights boys have picked two open-side flankers and put the blindside at lock, and I think in this dance of the desperate we may be in for a pleasant surprise and see a reasonably entertaining game with plenty of points. Especially if the ball can get out to the left wing – Russell for the Sharks and Waqaseaduadua for the Highlanders.

As for picking a winner – as usual the home side is a bit short on the tote but the prices aren’t attractive enough to get involved.

MP: Highlanders $1.60 Stormers $2.86 Draw $40
NZ TAB: Highlanders $1.50 Stormers $2.50
Betfair: Highlanders $1.50 Stormers $2.74 Draw $26

BLUES v REDS

As a habitual outsider backer, the Reds should grab my attention, but I can’t see how they could win this game if it was played 10 times. Yet more injuries to the pack, a game-plan which although effective won’t see them score enough points – nup, no hope. There is a chance this could get seriously ugly on the scoreboard but equally if the Reds continue to be efficient in securing possession and retaining it, it may end up being close. So no bet on the match odds, not confident enough to take the Blues at 13 and over – another sit and watch.

MP: Blues $1.27 Reds $5.00 Draw $67
NZ TAB: Blues $1.25 Reds $3.75
Betfair: Blues $1.30 Reds $4.30 Draw $26

FORCE v LIONS

One team is going to break their duck – the Force have yet to win at home while the Pussies have never won a game in Australia in 11 seasons. Based on current form, only the insane would back the Lions but you could have said that last week, too. Its déjà vu again where the prices are almost at the point where a wee speculator on the Lions wouldn’t be the stupidest idea this weekend.

MP: Force $1.39 Lions $3.85 Draw $50
NZ TAB: Force $1.18 Lions $4.50
Betfair: Force $1.28 Lions $4.60 Draw $29

BULLS v CHIEFS

Another dance of the desperate – two teams with more injuries than a MASH unit and who have been giving out Xmas presents left, right and centre. Will Bates throw another intercept? Will Victor take the shots at goal?

The aura of invincibility that the Bulls have had at Pretoria should be well out of the minds of punters now – 4 from 7 last year and a loss to the Force last weekend. This game is the hardest to price up this weekend, as it’s the most unpredictable. I’m staying on the sidelines.

MP: Bulls $1.60 Chiefs $2.86 Draw $40
NZ TAB: Bulls $1.45 Chiefs $2.65
Betfair: Bulls $1.45 Chiefs $3.20 Draw: $26

CHEETAHS v CRUSADERS

The last game of the round is the most interesting – the Cheetahs could do us all a big favour and knock the champs off leaving them in danger of missing the playoffs already – as I can’t see the Crusaders winning next weekend against the Sharks coming off a week’s rest.

For mine, the Cheetahs have been the one team who has looked dangerous – getting a reasonable supply of the pill and just as importantly doing something with it. They worried me a little bit stepping off the gas last weekend and allowing the Tahs to get back in the game, and the Saders are the one team you wouldn’t want to do that too. I want to price the Cheetahs at around $1.60 but I have this nagging feeling that the Crusaders know this is a must-win while the Cheetahs may not be at the same intensity shown (at times) last weekend. I hope I’m wrong.

MP: Cheetahs $1.82 Crusaders $2.38 Draw $33
NZ TAB: Cheetahs $1.85 Saders $1.90
Betfair: Cheetahs $1.95 Saders $2.08 Draw $26

WEEK 3 REVIEW

A couple of late decisions paid off getting on the two upsets of the round:

Backed Force to beat Bulls: +4.14
Traded in-play Canes v Blues: +1.39
Backed Tahs to beat Cheetahs: -2.00
Backed Lions to beat Crusaders: +7.64
Backed under 43.5 points in above game: +1.25
Backed Highlanders to beat Sharks: -2.08
Backed Highlanders with 10.5 points start: +1.05

Week 3: +11.39
Season to date: +13.57

Super 14 Injury List - Week 4

BLUES – none
CHIEFS - 4 Gibbes (calf, Week 7?), 5 Robinson (calf, Week 5), 8 Lauaki, 10 Donald (groin – doubtful), 13 Kahui, 15 Anesi (neck - season), 21 Lavea (knee ligaments, Week 8?)
HURRICANES – 7 Lilo, 13 Smith (Week 5), 17 Fairbrother (shoulder - season)
CRUSADERS - none
HIGHLANDERS - 10 Evans (knee, Week 5), 14 Waqaseduadua (knee, Week 6+), 15 Horton (rib injury, Week 5)
WARATAHS (BYE) - 1 Dunning (knee, Week 7?), 4 Kanaar (knee - season), 5 Vickerman (off season surgery, Week 8+), 7 Waugh (ankle – season), 8 Lyons (knee, Week 5)
BRUMBIES – 4 Campbell (foot, Week 5), 6 Heenan (off season surgery - return unknown), 13 Mortlock (neck/jaw, Week 5), 16 Palavi (neck - retired)
REDS - 1 Holmes (shoulder, Week 5+), 5 McMeniman (ankle - Week 8), 9 Cordingley (foot surgery, Week 5+), 12 Andrew Brown (punctured lung, Week 5+), 14 Caleb Brown, 15 Latham (knee - season), 16 Moore (knee - Week 8+), 22 Johansson (suspended, Week 6)
FORCE – 8 Fava, 10 Hilgendorf (possible return)
BULLS - 4 Botha, 10 Hougaard (reserves), 11 Habana, 12 Olivier (knee – return unknown), 16 Ralepelle (knee – return unknown), 17a Gerber (arm fracture, Week 6+), 17b Bands (calf, Week 8?), 18 Dlulane (neck - season), 19 Spies (knee, Week 6+), 22 Welsh (hamstring).
CHEETAHS - 1 Du Randt (possible return), 3 Du Plessis (doubtful), 4a Duncan (ankle, return unknown), 4b Nel (doubtful), 5 Pieterse (broken foot - season?), 12 Goodes (off season surgery, not fit), 15 Fortuin (off season surgery, not fit)
LIONS - 3 McKenzie (return unknown), 4 Grobler (knee, Week 5), 8 Cronje (possible return), 10 Andre Pretorius (possible return), 14 Willemse (return unknown), 21 Boshoff (rib, Week 5)SHARKS (BYE) - 4 Ackerman (calf, Week 5), 14 Odwa Ndungane (probable return Week 5), 20 Mathie (?),
STORMERS – 4 Boome (available – not selected), 8 Van Niekerk (knee - Week 7+), 11a Jantjes (thigh, Week 5), 11b Seconds (hamstring, Week 5), 18 Skeate, reserve outside backs Booi and Chavhanga injured.

Newsflash

BRACEWELL BLASTS WORLD CUP PREPARATION

New Zealand cricket coach John Bracewell has been asked by the ICC to appear before their Disciplinary Committee after a heated post-match press conference following their one-wicket victory over Australia yesterday.

Bracewell has been charged with bringing the game into disrepute after calling the Australian team “a bunch of wankers” for sub-standard performances during the past week that he claims has thrown his team’s preparation for next month’s World Cup in serious disarray.

“Look, all we wanted was a bit of decent competition and test ourselves under pressure but the crap dished up by a bunch of wankers leaves us with a lot of unanswered questions”, he said. When questioned by the Herald’s Dick Cock that the last game could be construed as competitive, Bracewell completely lost the plot.

“Listen Cock, we didn’t play our best two bowlers, I tell our top order to chuck their wickets away and then when Macca and Brendan are whacking away I have to send out a message and tell them to slow down. Gillespie was meant to miss a straight one as I really wanted to see if Jeets (Jeetan Patel) can bat but he kept nicking the fucking thing and by the time he ran himself out it was too late. That wasn’t competitive you knob, we were trying to manufacture a situation and see how we would respond”.

Meanwhile, Australian captain Michael Hussey insists there is no need to panic for his side. “If you look at the series, we have steadily improved” he said. “We lost by 10 wickets, then 5, and the final game by only 1 so we are heading the right way”. He added if a game was played Thursday a logical mathematical progression would see them win by 2 wickets so he’s confident by the time the World Cup starts in three weeks his team will beat Scotland in their opening game by 29 wickets and whoever they meet in the final by 45 wickets.

“You can’t argue with logic, maaaaaaaaate” he grinned, before being interrupted by a cellphone ringing. Although talking in hushed tones, our record of the ensuing conversation went something like this: “Hey Punter, did you get that 100 bucks on the Kiwis at 50/1 during the run chase? You did? Chooooice! What about 3/1 on us winning the World Cup? Oh, you little fuckin’ beauty.”

And in late breaking news, fears that Matthew Hayden had suffered a major brain injury after being struck by a Gillespie yorker eased last night after a scan showed no apparent damage, although some doubt remained after an incident in the early hours of this morning where he produced two cockroaches, gave one to NZ captain Stephen Fleming and insisted they bet on them racing up the hotel wall.

Weekend Wrap

I haven’t checked – but I guess there is a full moon currently. There can be no other explanation for the weekend just witnessed. The alignment of our planetary system must be questioned when Australia lose an ODI cricket match by 10 wickets. Yes, that’s not a typo. 10 wickets. That’s the equivalent of being lapped in a 400m race – the biggest pants-around-the-ankle arse whipping that can be dished out. And the first time the almighty Australian cricket team has suffered such an indignity. In over 600 matches.

The smirks on the faces of Kiwi sportsfans quickly turned into full-scale laughter as the second game brought more humiliation onto this admittedly under-strength behemoth. Now be honest, hands up who thought normal service had resumed when Oz smashed 336 first-up yesterday? After all, last time NZ played at Eden Park we were bowled out for 73. And when watching the run-chase, we all were expecting the usual emotions that NZ cricket followers know all to well – false hope and expectation cruelly crushed into ultimate disappointment.

For once, the Blackcaps did not let us down and the cabinetmakers will be busy this morning at NZ Cricket HQ – as will the gravediggers at the Australian sporting cemetery. But this is all a bit premature; there is nothing more scary than a wounded Aussie sporting team and those responsible for pushing out the odds for an Australian victory at the upcoming World Cup (from $2.50 to $3.25) are IMO not the brightest gamblers in the solar system. More about that in a few weeks’ time.

Still, one thing worse than being a cricket follower from Australia would be a rugby-lover from Christchurch. Watching their beloved Crusaders losing to the pussycats early on Sunday morning must have been painful. The weird thing is, and in keeping with the full moon theory, is there are some people out there who still believe the Crusaders should still be favourites to win the Super 14. Someone on Betfair has just backed them at $3.80 to win the comp.

A fool and his money are easily parted. Yes, it is still possible that the Crusaders will win the S14, but $3.80 favourites? My assessment pre-season was the Crusaders needed to return from SAF 2 and 1 to make the semis – well, losing to the Lions is not a good start and they will do real well to get past both the Cheetahs and Sharks in the next two weeks. Even if they do, away fixtures in Canberra and Sydney later on loom as potential potholes.

After the first three weeks, I have no idea who will win the final in May. This season will be closer than ever and over the weekend we witnessed all seven games decided by 7 points or less. While there is a lot of continuity from season to season in Super 14 rugby, this year it has gone out the window with the absence of 22 All Blacks in the first 7 weeks. Still don’t believe me? 4 out of the 5 NZ franchises lost in the weekend (one winner thanks to a NZ derby), yet 3 of them (Crusaders, Hurricanes and Blues) are the top three picks in the winner’s market. Madness.

During the season, I keep a table not on wins and losses, but a net score of away wins minus home losses adjusted for strength of opposition and bonus points gained. Based on this, at this early stage I’d have the Blues, Hurricanes, Brumbies and Waratahs favoured to make the semis while the Sharks, Cheetahs, Force and Highlanders (yes, you read right) are not out of it. Yes, rugby-lovers from Christchurch, the Crusaders are GONE!

Super 14 Week 3

Straight into it:

STORMERS v CHIEFS

The only two teams without a win match up and it'd be a brave person who can put any money on either side with confidence. The Stormers have been insipid so far while the Chiefs' injury woes are well-documented.

To me, it's last chance saloon for the Stormers. Already the knives are out in Cape Town and this is their last home game before their Aus/NZ road trip. If they can't get up for this game, they'll be favourites for the wooden spoon, so I'm taking a risk on them.

My Prices: Stormers $1.92 Chiefs $2.22 Draw $33
NZ TAB: Stormers $2.10 Chiefs $1.70
Betfair (best available to back): Stormers $2.16 Chiefs $1.87 Draw $29

BULLS v FORCE

To those who feel sorry for the Chiefs, spare a thought for the Bulls who by my count have 10 of their squad out with injury. Despite that, I think they'll have too much grunt up front for the Force and as long as they keep the game tight and boring, and don't give away too many penalties in Shepherd's kicking range, they should run out winners. No bet game for me, although the Force's price is a bit big IMO - if they drift further I may play.

MP: Bulls $1.48 Force $3.33 Draw $40
NZ TAB: Bulls $1.28 Force $3.50
Betfair: Bulls $1.33 Force $4.00 Draw $32

HURRICANES v BLUES

My stats show the home advantage in all-NZ derbies is not that important, so form becomes the main criteria. Despte recent history, the Blues deserve to be favourites for this one and here's hoping two of the more exciting backlines in the competition can show their wares. No bet.

MP: Hurricanes $2.38 Blues $1.80 Draw $40
NZ TAB: Hurricanes $2.20 Blues $1.65
Betfair: Hurricanes $2.32 Blues $1.84 Draw $28

REDS v BRUMBIES

The Reds have shown they will be no easy-beats this year but I think the Brumbies will prevail. Unfortunately the price is about right.

MP: Reds $2.82 Brumbies $1.61 Draw $40
NZ TAB: Reds $2.80 Brumbies $1.40
Betfair: Reds $2.88 Brumbies $1.56 Draw $29

CHEETAHS v WARATAHS

The most interesting match up this weekend. Hard to judge - most semi-final contenders from this part of the world need to return from SAF 2 and 1, and I still believe the Tahs fall into that category. Won't be an easy game - will be interesting to see how the depleted Tahs tight 5 stand up; if they get parity there and Hewat brings his kicking boots to the park, they should squeak a win. At the prices, they're worth a small wager.

MP: Cheetahs $2.11 Waratahs $2.04 Draw $28
NZ TAB: Cheetahs $1.75 Waratahs $2.00
Betfair: Cheetahs $1.85 Waratahs $2.22 Draw $26

LIONS v CRUSADERS

Andre Pretorius remains on the sidelines which is a pity as the Lions are not the same team without him. There's a lot of Cantabrians making their first trip to the high veldt and while it's difficult to see them losing, at the prices I have to have a wee speculator on the Lions (without much expectation).

MP: Lions $3.45 Crusaders $1.45 Draw $50
NZ TAB: Lions $4.00 Crusaders $1.22
Betfair: Lions $4.30 Crusaders $1.31 Draw $32

SHARKS v HIGHLANDERS

Another game where the favourites are probably starting too short - both teams have had difficulty scoring points (the Sharks have scored late in both games blowing out the margin) and I won't be surprised at a reasonably low-scoring encounter. In such a case, no team deserves to be $5+ as the bounce of the ball, a kicker having an off day, or a reffing decision could play a part.

MP: Sharks $1.49 Highlanders $3.28 Draw $40
NZ TAB: Sharks $1.16 Highlanders $4.75
Betfair: Sharks $1.26 Highlanders $5.10 Draw $32

BETTING SUPER 14 and RECORD SO FAR:

Markets on Betfair can sometimes change significantly just prior to kick-off so more often than not, the decision to place bets is left late. While this week I'm looking at 4 (maybe 5) games out of the 7 betting-wise, it all depends on the prices. So far in the first two weeks, my record is 1 from 5 but I'm in the black (numbers refer to a starting bank of 100 which bears no relation to what the bet sizes are):

Week 1 - Backed Lions v Waratahs (loss -1)
- Laid Chiefs and backed Brumbies (won +5.54)
- Laid Reds v Hurricanes (loss -2.15)
Week 2 - Backed Tahs v Sharks (loss -1.42)
- laid Lions v Highlanders (loss -0.34)

I don't usually trade rugby in-play (not for the Super 14 anyway) but got involved in the Chiefs v Hurricanes game (won +0.50) and pregame trades in the Crusaders v Reds saw me net +1.05.

As you can see, I tend to judge games tighter than the market (I might explain why another time) which usually means I end up backing outsiders with a less than 50% expectation of winning. However, if you keep backing $4 and $5 shots you don't need too many to come in to end up in the black; last year my biggest win on the Super 14 was when the Highlanders upset the Brumbies paying $8 when no-one gave them a chance. It's not how many games you get right - it's the Profit/Loss column that counts.

Halberg Awards

If you look in the archives here (the first post under media), we can read a journo's pontifications about how rugby gets a raw deal at the Halberg Awards - NZ's premier sporting acknowledgement.

After last night, where the All Blacks won team of the year, Graham Henry was Coach of the year, and McCaw was nominated for sportsman of the year, no doubt the journo is feeling a bit happier.

But I'm not. These awards are purely political and it shows - the All Blacks are given suitable accolades for an outstanding season but how they can win the team award over their women counterparts who last year won their third world championship in a row is beyond me. As is the emerging talent award when a junior world champion in the sexy sport of triathlon can triumph over a senior world champion in the we-don't-care sport of motorcross.

NZ 'A' vs AUS 'B'

Not often you see Australia $1.80 in a cricket match, but on a three match losing streak and with three, possibly more, of their front-liners out - it's an understandable price.

Not that I'm wading into it - often markets over-react to injuries and unavailability in team sports but the loss of Symonds and Ponting in particular do make Australia an easier proposition. It's no co-incidence in my mind the English revival occurred in the game where both of them didn't play. Put Gilchrist and possibly Lee on the sidelines as well ... it's a no bet game for me, except during in-play.

Go the Blackcaps!

S14 Injury List Week 3

One of the reasons I hate Super 14 starting so early are the hard grounds. So I'm more than a little pissed off Soseni Anesi is out for the season after fracturing his neck, most likely as a result of his head hitting the concrete whilst been tackled. Last year, Steve Devine was lucky he didn't suffer a similar fate and "just" got knocked senseless instead from the same thing - head hitting ground whilst been tackled.

While the rugby lawmakers are crouching, touching and pausing to look after the front row, they need to seriously look at the fact that rugby is not designed to be played on rock-hard grounds in the middle of summer. Hopefully Anesi's injury will be the only one, but somehow I doubt it and I'm crossing fingers no-one gets REALLY hurt.


BLUES – 12 Tuitupou (in the reserves), 13 Toeava
CHIEFS - 4 Gibbes (calf, Week 7?), 5 Robinson (calf, Week 4), 8 Lauaki (broken wrist, Week 4), 13 Kahui (shoulder, Week 5), 15 Anesi (neck - season), 21 Lavea (knee ligaments, Week 8?)
HURRICANES – 7 Latu (possible), 13 Smith (Week 5), 17 Fairbrother (shoulder - season)
CRUSADERS - none
HIGHLANDERS - 10 Evans (knee, Week 4), 14 Waqaseduadua (knee, Week 6+), 15 Horton (rib injury, Week 4)
WARATAHS - 1 Dunning (knee, Week 7?), 4 Kanaar (knee - season), 5 Vickerman (off season surgery, Week 8+), 8 Lyons (knee, Week 4?)
BRUMBIES - 6 Heenan (off season surgery, back Week 3?), 13 Mortlock, 16 Palavi (neck - retired)
REDS - 5 McMeniman (ankle - Week 8), 9 Cordingley (foot surgery, Week 4?), 12 Andrew Brown (punctured lung, Week 4+), 14 Caleb Brown (hamstring, Week 4), 15 Latham (knee - season)
FORCE – 8 Fava (discipline 1 week), 10 Hilgendorf (groin, Week 4?)
BULLS - 1 Gurthro Steenkamp, 4 Botha (knee/calf, return unknown), 10 Hougaard (leg - Week 4), 11 Habana (hip - Week 4), 15 van der Westhuyzen (in the reserves), 16 Ralepelle (head - Week 4), 17a Gerber (arm fracture, 3-5 weeks), 17b Bands (calf, Week 8?), 18 Dlulane (neck - season), 19 Spies (knee, one month?), 22 Welsh (hamstring).
CHEETAHS - 1 Du Randt (off season surgery, not fit), 4 Duncan (ankle, return unknown), 5 Pieterse (broken foot - season?), 12 Goodes (off season surgery, not fit), 15 Fortuin (off season surgery, not fit)
LIONS - 3 McKenzie (return unknown), 8 Cronje (in the reserves), 10 Andre Pretorius (hamstring, return unknown), 14 Willemse (return unknown)
SHARKS - 3 BJ Botha (possible return), 4 Ackerman (calf, possible return), 9 Pienaar (possible return), 14 Odwa Ndungane (possible return), 20 Mathie (?),
STORMERS – 4 Boome (stomach virus), 8 Van Niekerk (knee - Week 7+), 18 Skeate (foot, Week 3), reserve outside backs Booi and Chavhanga injured.

So who cok'd up?

I haven't had a SPARC (NZ's Government Agency responsible for sport and recreation) rant for a while, but this article in the Sunday Star-Times has sufficiently wound me up to have another go.

The short version of the article is as follows:

1. NZ's top swimmers were expecting their PEG's (Perfomance Enhancement Grants) late last year - October 2006.
2. They get told at that time that the amount they'll receive is being based on results at the World Short Course Swimming Champs in April 2006
3. They had been led to believe that results at the Commonwealth Games earlier that year were being used as the criteria.

Ahhhh the good old shifting of goalposts retrospectively. Yep, that fits neatly into the professional management model that SPARC are so keen to foist on the sport and recreation sector in this country. Tell you what, let's apply this new technique to other areas where it might benefit.

I've mentioned the Commonwealth Games. Remember the furore over not reaching the medal target? (I've forgotten the exact number - 45 wasn't it?). Well, using the new SPARC-approved shift the goalposts in hindsight management technique, let's just retrospectively amend the target - make it 30 medals and hey presto, problem solved and target achieved. Now the NSO's don't have to worry about their funding for another couple of years.

I've tried to come up with suitable words to express how I feel but for once my lexicographic abilities fail me - so I'm left with my original choice: WHAT A BUNCH OF FUCKING WANKERS.

According to the article, Dean Kent has had his training grant cut by a quarter and Moss Burmester received $5000 less than expected.

Yet the CEO of Swimming NZ is quoted in the article as saying "the final result was a significantly enhanced final outcome for the athletes" while SPARC chips in with "agreement was reached in November that resulted in satisfactory outcomes for all swimmers".

CAN SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN TO ME HOW HAVING YOUR TRAINING GRANT CUT BY A QUARTER, OR BY $5000, IS A "SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED" OR "SATISFACTORY" OUTCOME???

But here's the thing that really winds me up - and something the journo at the SST seemingly missed - anybody remember the results from these events? While some of you might recall that Moss Burmester won gold at the Commonwealth Games in the 200m Butterfly, not many of you will remember he also finished 2nd in that event at the World Short Course Champs - beaten by a Chinese swimmer competing in his home pool. Our first medal at these championships for some years if I remember correctly (we also got a bronze in 2006 - Hannah McLean I think).

So, even allowing for the fact the goalposts have been shifted retrospectively, apparently finishing 2nd at a WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP is worth $5000 less than finishing 1st at the Commonwealth Games, where the Americans, Chinese, Russians et al do not compete.

I repeat: WHAT A BUNCH OF FUCKING WANKERS.

Laying Long Odds

(Newbie Note: "Laying" is the opposite of backing in betting; i.e. if I lay you $100 at 14.0 that NZ will win the Cricket World Cup I'll get your $100 if the Blackcaps crap out but will have to pay you $1400 if the unthinkable happens. In other words I'm being the bookmaker.)

A particular post on the Betfair forum got me thinking on this subject - a rather unfortunate chap bemoaning his luck in laying France at 10.5 with a couple of minutes to go in their Six Nations rugby clash against Ireland. To recap on what happened, the Irish kicked a penalty with 2 minutes to go which extended their lead to 17-13, only to botch the resulting kick-off, France getting their hands on the pill and waltzing in for the match-winning try with a minute to go.

So, an expensive lesson (we call them tuition fees in this business) and nothing to do with luck. Another example recently was England's rise from the ashes in the recent ODI tri-series. After their 2 humiliating defeats at Adelaide, only the incredibly insane would back them to win the thing as the following backs in the winner's market show:

100.00 - £21
110.00 - £8
120.00 - £27
130.00 - £17
140.00 - £11
150.00 - £30
160.00 - £4
170.00 - £12
190.00 - £1
200.00 - £9
220.00 - £3

OK the amounts aren't huge but I think 99.9% of us don't mind risking e.g. 9 quid to win 1800, which should mean there's only 0.1% of us silly/brave/insert your own opinion here willing to risk 1800 quid to win 9 - even if they think the result is a "certainty" (and we all should know by now there is no such thing as a certainty in sport). Unfortunately (or not, depending on what side of the bet you are on), the amount of people willing to lay at long odds is probably much larger than 0.1%.

I've fallen into the trap recently myself laying 50/1 that Australia would win the Ashes 5-0 during the third test at Adelaide which had "Draw" written all over it. I don't mind if you laugh at me - I'm well over the pain and fortunately the tuition fees paid in this case came after the tuition fees paid for the lesson on overbetting, so the damage wasn't too terminal.

But what that lesson forced me to do was set some concrete rules on laying at long odds, which in a two-horse race is really the same as backing the other side at short odds. I've never been a taker of short odds-on prices - for some time I've had a rule that unless there is a very, very good reason to do so (and there aren't many), never back below 1.1. Well, if it's a two-horse race that's the same as laying the other side at 10/1 - so in theory I should never lay above that price. In a three-horse race, it would be 20/1 etc.

In test cricket where three results are possible, a habitual layer (odds offerer) like me usually ends up in a situation with a large result on the least likely outcome, and it can be so tempting to lay off that position at 30/1 or 40/1 to squeeze out an extra 50 or 100 quid profit. So rewind back to a certain test six months ago where England were 30/1 on Betfair and in reality should have been closer to 100/1. Thanks to a couple of Umpires and a petulant Pakistani captain, they ended up winning.

Laying long odds - fast road to the poorhouse in my opinion. It's the same as backing short odds-on favourites where no matter how "certain" you think a result is, thanks to the glorious unpredictability of sport the value just cannot be there.

Weekend Wrap

It's taken me 2 weeks to recall one of the lessons learned last year - the Super 14 is a bloody unpredictable competition. Part of the reason is rugby is actually quite a complex sport and consistency in sporting performance is difficult to achieve, and also there is not that much difference between the competing teams (as the draw last year between the top of the table Crusaders and wooden spooners Force will testify).

So another three teams win away from home at Betfair starting prices of $3.10, $2.98 and $2.62 with not a cent of my money on them. Grrrrrrrr. Instead ol' plonker here dropped some money on the Tahs and then spent the early hours of Sun morning hurling the TV remote at the cat every time Peter Hewat missed a penalty. Please send flowers to Ward 9 of the Waiuku Animal Hospital.

Goalkicking. In a tight competition assumes a bit more importance and I haven't seen this weeks' stats, but last week goalkicking was at 60% compared to the long-term average in Super rugby of around 75%. Already this year 3 games out of the 14 played could have/should have had different results had the radar being switched on for some of these kickers. Something to keep an eye on over the next few weeks.

Still, it could be worse. I could be an Aussie. Losing to England two-zip in the final of their ODI competition must make the muesli taste a bit funny this morning. Now where's that John Buchanan quote? Y'know, the one where he was a bit miffed about the quality of the opposition in this series and was wishing his team could be a bit more tested on the field. Geez, it must be tempting to throw that back in his face but I'm a bit too mature for that. No I'm not - HA HA HA HA HHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA.

Bit of course all this pales into insignificance to the real big sporting news of the weekend - yes, New Zealand's win in the Davis Cup tennis tie against Pacific Oceania. "Kiwis serve up Davis Cup treat" screamed the headline in the Herald on Sunday.

Someone sack the sub-editor, although I suppose NZ winning a Davis Cup tie is technically a treat, as it doesn't happen that often. Never mind that it was against a team that is made up of a few Pacific islands no-one has ever heard of cobbled together.

But the rest of the article made me throw up as well - "The key to the tie was power - the Kiwis had it and the Pacific Oceania players didn't."

Look dufus, Roger Federer has power. Andy Roddick has power. NZ tennis players don't. Suggesting otherwise is barf material. Or how about "(NZ) had serves too powerful for their opponents, who were athletic but lacking in big tournament play"

There's that word - POWER - again, but the inference that our tennis players have "big tournament" experience is also laughable. As a free service to the nation, here's what we should really be reading over breakfast this morning:

NZ WIN BATTLE OF THE MINNOWS

NZ's Davis Cup team - that's tennis if you don't know - have avoided complete humiliation by beating some poor underpriveleged kids from Wallis and Fortuna (get your atlas out, I don't know where it is either). Our boys are out celebrating hard, for they know they will get their ar$es kicked in their next match against the Phillippines.

Super 14 Week 2

Not a particularly appetising round of matches from a betting point of view. All home teams are favourites, and with maybe one exception, justifiably so. Unlike Week 1 where 3 outsiders (2 away from home) got the chocolates, I cannot see much value – so these will be short and sweet:

CHIEFS v HURRICANES

Apparently a “must-win” game for both sides, in Week 2. If the Hurricanes' forward pack again goes MIA like GI’s did in the Vietnam war, they’ll suffer the same result. Both teams disrupted by injury; you’d think the Chiefs at home will be able to do enough to win but it won’t have any of my money riding on it.

My Prices: Chiefs $1.71 – Hurricanes $2.60 – Draw $33
NZ TAB: Chiefs $1.50 – Hurricanes $2.50
Betfair (best available to back): Chiefs $1.62 – Hurricanes $2.76 – Draw $32

STORMERS v FORCE

Have found it difficult to price this game up; both teams need more output from their tight five as both teams have reasonable backs if they get enough of the pill. Hard to predict who that will be; so I’ll sit and watch.

MP: None
NZ TAB: Stormers $1.40 Force $2.80
Betfair: Stormers $1.55 - Force $2.98 – Draw $32

SHARKS v WARATAHS

Don’t know what to make of the Tahs last week – did enough to win; but how bad were the opposition? While people are jumping on the Sharks bandwagon, they were outplayed (and should have been well behind) for the first 20 minutes and their late try was almost intercepted which would have made the score 10-10 instead of 17-3.

I’d like to back the Tahs in this one but the price is not quite good enough to do so – I do think this game is one possibility for a home loss.

MP: Sharks $1.88 – Waratahs $2.30 – Draw $30
NZ TAB: Sharks $1.75 – Waratahs $2.00
Betfair: Sharks $1.70 – Waratahs $2.46 – Draw $30

CRUSADERS v REDS

Annoyed that I went off the Reds late last week - IMHO they were one of the more impressive teams last week, especially in the forwards where unlike most they showed they could hang onto the ball. Obviously away to the Crusaders is a different test but they are not without hope. If I can get $5 at Betfair, I’ll have a nibble.

Note Mr Yellow Card (Mark Lawrence) is in charge of this game, so don’t expect a free-flowing encounter, which combined with possible inclement weather might just make this game a lot tighter than expected. Crusaders 12 and under might be worth considering.

MP: Crusaders $1.33 – Reds $4.26 – Draw $66
NZ TAB: Crusaders $1.20 – Reds $4.20
Betfair: Crusaders $1.29 – Reds $4.80 – Draw $40

BRUMBIES v BLUES

Match of the round for me. Nothing I saw in Week 1 has made me change my opinion these two teams – barring injury disruptions worse than average – will be in the top 4 come playoff time. Brumbies have the best record at home of any S14 team and while it’s on the cards they’ll drop one in a year and could easily be this one, at the prices I’m not getting involved.

MP: Brumbies $1.67– Blues $2.67 – Draw $36
NZ TAB: Brumbies $1.70 – Blues $2.10
Betfair: Brumbies $1.70 – Blues $2.52 – Draw $30

BULLS v CHEETAHS

Bulls played well enough to win last week but made a truckload of mistakes such as handling errors. Tidy that up and they should win even with their injury woes, although I’ll admit here and now I probably was a little dismissive of the Cheetahs pre-season.

MP: Bulls $1.72 – Cheetahs $2.56 – Draw $33
NZ TAB: Bulls $1.60 – Cheetahs $2.25
Betfair: Bulls $1.67 – Cheetahs $2.54 – Draw $30

LIONS v HIGHLANDERS

And so the round ends with this clash of the titans. Andre Pretorius pulling out last week was not the news my money wanted to hear – sinking a bet before kick-off, and I fear without the captain and playmaker, the Highlanders just might get lucky – again. I think the Highlanders can survive without their No. 10 better than the Lions can. I might be tempted to bet if the Lions continue to shorten.

MP: Lions $2.15 – Highlanders $2.00 – Draw $29
NZ TAB: Lions $1.85 – Highlanders $1.90
Betfair: Lions $1.93 – Highlanders $2.12 – Draw $29

S14 Injury List W2

A day late, but still gives an idea what squads are having to go deep - yellow new, red season, green returning/available:

BLUES – 12 Tuitupou (knee, 1 week), 13 Toeava (shoulder, 1 week)
CHIEFS - 5 Robinson (calf, Week 4), 8 Lauaki (broken wrist, Week 4), 11 Kinikinilau, 13 Kahui (shoulder, Week 3), 21 Lavea (knee ligaments, 6 weeks)
HURRICANES – 1 John Schwalger (doubtful), 7 Latu (playing for Tonga), 13 Smith (eye, 1 week?), 17 Fairbrother (dislocated shoulder, Week 5+)
CRUSADERS - none
HIGHLANDERS - 10 Evans (knee, Week 4), 14 Waqaseduadua (knee, Week 6+), 15 Horton (rib injury, Week 4)
WARATAHS - 1 Dunning (knee, Week 7?), 4 Kanaar (knee - season), 5 Vickerman (off season surgery, Week 8+), 8 Lyons (knee, Week 4?)
BRUMBIES - 6 Heenan (off season surgery, back Week 3?), 10 Larkham, 11 Gerrard (knee, 1 week), 16 Palavi (neck, returning?)
REDS - 9 Cordingley (foot surgery, Week 4?), 12 Andrew Brown (punctured lung, Week 4+), 12 Johanssen, 14 Caleb Brown (hamstring, Week 4), 15 Latham (knee - season), 21 Cooper
FORCE – 10 Hilgendorf (groin, 1 week?)
BULLS - 4 Botha (knee/calf, return unknown), 10 Hougaard (doubtful), 15 van der Westhuyzen (will return from Japan mid-Feb), 16 Ralepelle, 17 Gerber (arm fracture, 4-6 weeks), 18 Dlulane (neck surgery, no date), 19 Spies (knee, one month?), 22 Welsh (hamstring), back-up props Steenkamp, Bands injured/not fit???
CHEETAHS - 1 Du Randt (off season surgery, not fit), 4 Duncan (ankle, return unknown), 5 Pieterse (broken foot - season?), 12 Goodes (off season surgery, not fit), 15 Fortuin (off season surgery, not fit)
LIONS - 3 McKenzie (return unknown), 8 Cronje (return unknown), 10 Andre Pretorius (hamstring, return unknown), 11 Jaco Pretorius, 14 Willemse (return unknown), 14 Human, 16 Reynecke, 17 Smit
SHARKS - 4 Ackerman (calf, Week 3), 14 Odwa Ndungane (ankle, return unknown), 20 Mathie (?), Bobby Skinstad (available, not selected)
STORMERS – 4 Boome (stomach virus), 18 Skeate (foot, Week 3), reserve outside backs Booi and Chavhanga injured.

Afridi and easy money

You know there's a higher authority at work when you set your alarm for 5.30 a.m. (to get up for the second half of the South African v Pakistan ODI), only to wake up at 3 a.m. with a voice inside your head screaming at you to get your ar$e out of bed.

Thankfully I listened and dutifully obeyed, for not only did I see Shahid Afridi in one of his "moods", cracking the second-fastest half century ever - but some kind people thought South Africa were worth betting at $2.60 when he was striding to the crease with Pakistan 222-4 in the 38th over. Even if he failed, with Razzaq, Mahmood and Malik still in the hut, there was enough firepower to get Pakistan past 300.

Even at the change of innings and over 350 on the board, Pakistan were still a generous $1.30 to win the game - never mind SAF had to do the second-highest run chase ever to win - and after 4 overs and 25-0 Pakistan were out to $1.50 ...

It restores my faith in human nature to see that betting markets can still at times over-react to the point that those causing them should be consigned to the loony bin - but hey, perhaps I should shut up as it pays for my groceries.

However there was still one twist in the tail - a blackout at the ground after 19.4 overs of the chase - which is significant as the rules of cricket require 20 overs to be completed by the team batting second for a result to be declared, and betting markets will void bets if there is no offical result.

Luckily they came back on after half an hour, otherwise the conspiracy theorists would be having a field day - it's not as if the two teams have a squeaky clean record when it comes to betting scandals is it? Still, it makes you wonder what caused it - perhaps that higher authority was having a bit of fun at my expense ...

Bloody Poms 2 (& fickle fans)

Luckily I forgot to sign-in yesterday as I was reasonably confident the Blackcaps would win last night's ODI. Also lucky that such confidence was not sufficiently high to plonk some readies on NZ at $1.60.

Actually I think the loss may turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Hopefully Oz will do their usual trick; step up a gear in the final and smash the Poms off the park, leaving them with the psychological problems rather then us. Then, after we've had a week off to freshen up, we'll surprise the Aussies when they make the trip across the ditch. Well, dreams are free.

However, I made the mistake of turning on the radio this morning and can't believe the vitriol spewing forth from talkback callers. Apparently Fleming should be dropped because his century was too slow. Some believe he's not enjoying his cricket and should quit Nathan Astle style. One caller is so upset he's cancelled his plans to go to the ODI in Wellington next week because "NZ Cricket doesn't deserve his $30".

It's almost left me speechless (quite a feat). Hope none of the ABs were listening - they know what they're in for if they don't get the William Webb Ellis trophy. The reaction is some evidence of what I think is a worrying trend in NZ that when sports individuals/teams do not live up to expectations, we really put the boot in.

This used to be just the domain of rugby when the ABs lost but it is spreading across the whole sporting landscape. Take stock people; while it is OK to express disappointment at a sporting loss, criticism of a performance (which actually wasn't that bad) needs to be tempered with the realisation that there are always two sides in a sporting contest trying to win and we don't have a divine right to win every contest we are favoured to.

NZ sports fans are turning into a bunch of "fair-weather friends" and have seemingly forgotten that part of being a supporter of sport is to support your team or individual when they are going through a tough time. But oh no, it's easier to kick 'em when they're down.

I blame SPARC and their "winners and grinners and losers can go and get fkd" philosophy. No doubt our Minister of Sport will open his trap again and question our cricket team's mental toughness.

Weekend Wrap

I'd forgotten how much "joy" the overlapping seasons are for a punter majoring in cricket and rugby ... NOT. Seven S14 games - well six and a half actually, I along with no doubt the rest of the viewing public fell asleep during the Force v Highlanders game - plus a couple of ODI matches and the tele is asking for time and a half for working double shifts.

Actually, I shouldn't be too harsh on the southern men. If it wasn't for them, we would be waking up to all 4 Australian Super 14 sides winning in the weekend, which combined with the obligatory cricket loss to them wouldn't help the mood of the nation. Still, I can't come to the conclusion the Highlanders won that game - the other side lost it.

Still haven't digested all the rugby seen into the brain, other than the winner of the weekend is the Brumbies for picking up 4 points away to a fellow semi-final contender, while the loser has to be the Canes for dropping 4 points most sides will be aiming to win. A mental note for future seasons - the Brumbies had the most starters from the previous season and looked the quickest into gear of any side; not that surprising really.

If there's one thing to come out of the weekend it's a new watchlist of refeering interpretations - this had been foreshadowed in an article I had read on some website before the weekend; but the strict application by some of the refs is worth noting. With the number of yellow cards issued, teams that adapt quicker will have an advantage and something to look at next weekend.

As for the cricket, don't be too harsh on our boys - Aussie were always going to bounce back and had to play well to beat us. It could be worse - we could live in Pakistan where they take their cricket far more seriously and they have to wake up to the news their side got smashed for 392 runs off 50 overs by South Africa. Now that was worth watching.

Back tomorrow for the do-or-die clash with the Poms in the cricket.

P.S. Funniest moment of the weekend - I swear Stirling Mortlock went to shake hands with the opposition when the half-time whistle went in the Chiefs/Brumbies game - he had just been smashed thanks to a hospital pass from Gregan and was still in Disneyland - had to be directed to the changing rooms by a team-mate who was no doubt telling him the news there was still 40 min to go.

Bloody Poms

Up until Friday, I really fancied NZ's chances of pinching today's ODI off Australia. Doesn't matter how good a sportsteam is, the more wins they string together the possibility slightly increases they'll put in a sub-par performance and their opponents can catch them on an off-day. Unfortunately for Kiwi fans, that day came two days early.

Now Australia losing two ODI cricket matches in a row is about as common as the wife cooking me breakfast, so I'm being a touch pessimistic. I guess we're in with a starter's chance, and the Australian price on Betfair ($1.25) is a little tight. So close eyes, put a wee wager on the Blackcaps and hope that lightning can indeed strike twice.

Super 14 Week 1

BLUES v CRUSADERS

As a Blues’ fan, I still have nightmares about last year’s opener when after dominating the first half, the rain came, the Canes scored 3 tries in the blink of an eye and that was that. I’m expecting another game where there will be plenty of points as the defence on both teams won’t be 100% efficient in Week 1.

In that regard, Sam Tuitupou must be licking his chops at the channel between Brett and Laulala – why Tipoki isn’t starting at 12 is personally a slight mystery to me, and the defence around the fringes/inside backs is what I’ll watch for in the early stanzas. I don’t expect too much domination from one pack over the other – so the big D and who takes the opportunities are the keys to me.

Given that the Crusaders are $3.50 to win the comp, I was a little surprised the NZ TAB opened the Blues as favs for this game and they have shortened during the week, to the point that even though I think on the balance of probabilities the Blues will win, the Crusaders are almost worth considering. But this game is a no bet for me.

My Prices: Blues $1.87 – Crusaders $2.30 – Draw $33
NZ TAB: Blues $1.65 – Crusaders $2.20 (opened $1.75 - $2.00)
Betfair (best available to back): Blues $1.70 – Crusaders $2.48 – Draw $30

FORCE v HIGHLANDERS

Oh dear – Groundhog Day and no Nick Evans. Short and sweet, I can’t see how the southern men are going to win this game.

MP: Force $1.57 – Highlanders $3.00 – Draw $33
NZ TAB: Force $1.45 – Highlanders $2.65
Betfair: Force $1.40 – Highlanders $3.40 – Draw $30

No bet.

LIONS v WARATAHS

You have to sympathise with the journalist who has to write stories with deadlines weeks out. From the Rugby News comes this pearl of wisdom from Spiro Zavos:

“(The Waratahs) play their opening match … against the Lions. They have plenty of time to get to South Africa, rather than the seven days that the other Australian or New Zealand sides have…”

So what do the ‘Tahs do? Decide to fly over on the Wednesday before the game, giving them about 53 hours to get over the jet lag etc before kick-off on the high veldt. Plenty of raised eyebrows at this, but as someone who has had to perform at international sport a few days after a long-haul flight, I will venture the opinion it is FUCKING STUPID.

Look, the ‘Tahs will probably win. But the combination of this daft idea, the injuries to the pack, and a bunch of nobody pussycats with plenty to prove and nothing to lose playing their first game in a new jersey for a new coach at home, it’s a mix of ingredients for an upset. I’m plonking a small wager on the Lions.

MP: Lions $3.45 – Waratahs $1.45 – Draw $50
NZ TAB: Lions $4.00 – Waratahs $1.22
Betfair: Lions $4.00 – Waratahs $1.36 – Draw $32

CHIEFS v BRUMBIES

Match of the round for me. Two sides who have in the last couple of years have given us highly entertaining and close games (both played in Canberra). The stats men will tell you the Chiefs haven’t beaten the Brumbies since 1999, but that is of little relevance to me.

What is relevant is both sides have a key player out; Robinson and Larkham. I’ve heard that Waikato in the Air New Zealand Cup had the best lineout when Robinson played, and the worst when he didn’t. Ouch. The Brumbies without Larkham? Well at the end of last year they did manage to beat the Canes without him, but tripped up against the Highlanders and got murdered late by the Crusaders.

A game that isn’t easy to call – the home advantage should perhaps tip the favourites tag over to the Chiefs, but not by the margin the prices suggest. I have to back the Brumbies in this one; another option is to look for the points start as it’s unlikely to be a runaway victory (for either team).

MP: Chiefs $1.87 – Brumbies $2.30 – Draw $33
NZ TAB: Chiefs $1.50 – Brumbies $2.50
Betfair: Chiefs $1.60 – Brumbies $2.60 – Draw $30

REDS v HURRICANES

My optimism about the Reds’ ability to perhaps turn their woeful form around has taken a massive nosedive over the last few days – players that are needed can’t be bothered getting out of bed for training, Ryan Nicholas ain’t coming after all, and then I found these following two quotes:

Ben Tune: "Every training session I feel a twinge or my knee will hurt. There is just never any let-up"

Chris Latham (on Clinton Schifcoske): "I feel for Clinton. He's pretty much been left to his own devices."

While the 2007 version of the Hurricanes will not be the same as the 2006 vintage, their backs will have to seriously stuff-up for them not to win this game. May not be that much between the packs, but from 9 to 15 they’re a class or three apart. Could get ugly if the Canes use the ball properly. Probably no bet at the prices, but at Betfair I’d be happy to give anyone $2.66 on the Reds.

MP: Reds $3.00 – Hurricanes $1.57 – Draw $33
NZ TAB: Reds $2.65 – Hurricanes $1.45
Betfair: Reds $2.66 – Hurricanes $1.59 – Draw $28

SHARKS v BULLS

The first of two interesting SAF clashes, with the two teams who have some optimism regarding their Super 14 chances squaring off at Durban. To say the Sharks are miffed at losing their semifinal spot to the Bulls last year would be an understatement, and this clash has some potential for more blood to be spilled than the Battle of the Somme.

Which would make us here in NZ quite happy – nothing better to watch two SAF teams bash the shit out of each other. But back to what’s important – who will win and why. Well here’s my answer – I don’t have a clue. Sit back and watch, although if the Bulls drift any further I might get involved.

MP: Sharks $2.08 – Bulls $2.08 – Draw $25
NZ TAB: Sharks $1.75 – Bulls $2.00
Betfair: Sharks $1.84 – Bulls $2.16 – Draw $34

CHEETAHS v STORMERS

And so the opening week is concluded by another potential bash-a-thon, although the sides picked suggest they actually might try and play some rugby. But there will be no love lost between these teams – cue Cheetahs’ Marius Joubert to his former teammate JD Moller at a chance meeting at an airport: “We’re going to f*** you on Saturday”. Charming.

Another game where there shouldn’t be too much between the team’s prices and this is the one game where prices on the NZ TAB have moved significantly, the Stormers down to $2.15 from their opening quote of $2.40. Another sit and watch for me, unless the Stormers correct back past their starting price.

MP: Cheetahs $1.87 – Stormers $2.30 – Draw $33
NZ TAB: Cheetahs $1.65 – Stormers $2.15 (opened $1.55 - $2.40)
Betfair: Cheetahs $1.78 – Stormers $2.24 – Draw $28

Betting the Super 14

I'll be putting up previews of Week 1 games sometime late this afternoon (NZT), but here's a quick note on betting the winners market.

Normally I don't tie up money in a market where settlement date is a few months away, but Super 14 is an exception. Partly because the liquidity on Betfair is OK for this market and sometimes the liquidity for individual games is piss poor, and I don't often bet at the NZ TAB as the 15% over-round (the cut the bookies take) usually makes the prices unattractive.

Even Nostradamus would have trouble predicting who is going to win the Super 14, especially this year where the NZ teams are weakened (to what extent is $64 question No.1), and we also have one new scrum law and a few other things refs are going to clamp down on - these things also tend to have an effect on early games. And injuries always have a role to play.

But as with all forms on punting, you can form a view on the possibility that so-and-so will win it, and the trick is to form your own prices and then compare yours with what's on offer. An easy way to set your own prices is as follows:

There are 14 teams in the comp. If all teams were exactly equal, they'd be priced at 13/1 - $14 to win. But they're not are they - so let's get the also-rans out of the way and make them $100. Only $100 because this is a fairly even competition and no-one deserves to be longer - if this was the Rugby World Cup we'd be slapping $1000 on the likes of Namibia and Uruguay.

S0, using the round-robin predictions I've detailed earlier I'd slap $100 on the Reds and $80 on the Cheetahs, Lions and Highlanders. Next worst team for me is the Force and I'd have them around $40, while the predicted mid-table finishers should be only slightly worse than that average $14, so lets' chuck $18 on the Hurricanes, Sharks and Stormers.

When setting a book, make sure the percentages add up to 100% (otherwise your numbers, literally, won't add up), so already we've allocated 1%, 3 lots of 1.25%, a 2.5% and 3 lots of 5.55%, so that's 21.5% in total - leaving 78.5% for the 6 remaining teams.

Now go to the other end - what price should the favourites be? If this was 2006, I'd be slapping $3 on the Crusaders and working out the rest, but this is 2007 and some uncertainty how the NZ teams will perform, so the market for the real contenders should be a lot more even. Again using that $14 average, is there any team that deserves to be half the average price in this case? Probably not, but I will make my favoured teams $6 - slightly under half the average, the next line $8 which leaves about 20% to be allocated and so the two teams on the third line should be $10. I'm quite happy about the closeness of the prices for these teams as it's not a competition with a dominant favourite and at the top end prices shouldn't be too far apart.

Now take off 10% - covers half the cut the bookie take, and leaves about 10% (depending on what the actual bookie cut is) as a margin for the lack of your own ability (!).

So I've set my prices - don't argue with them - it's the method I'm highlighting so you can set your own:

Blues, Brumbies $5.40
Chiefs, Bulls $7.20
Crusaders, Waratahs $9.10
Hurricanes, Sharks, Stormers $16.20
Force $36
Cheetahs, Lions, Highlanders $72
Reds $90

So you now have a set of prices you can compare with what's on offer - and can guide you what teams you should consider backing in the winner's market - and just as importantly what teams not to. A similar exercise can be done for making the top 4 (except the percentage your market needs to add up to is 400%), and a trusted friend has already pointed out the NZ TAB has the Sharks at $4.25 and the Stormers at $10 in this market, both of which I agree are a little-overpriced and worth a speculative punt.

Is anyone watching ...

the cricket match, sorry, mis-match this 'avo between England and Australia?

Another absolute arse-whippin' is on the cards. And when here in NZ we have the Wellington Sevens and the Blues-Crusaders as alternatives, I think the viewing numbers will be well down.

Sunday though, will be a different story. I think it might be time for that needle in a haystack to be found :-)

Super 14 - Injury List

One of the things that pisses me off about getting information on the Super 14 is the number of websites you have to visit to get up-to-date. There is no website (to my knowledge) that doesn't have a local flavour sometimes to the detriment of the other two countries involved.

Super14.com is about the closest but not 100% reliable, so for SAF news I go to Planetrugby and supersport.co.za, Oz I tend to rely on SMH's site rugbyheaven, while home it's the Herald and Xtramsn (who have two of the better rugby journos in Hinton and Johnstone) - and the radio on.

That's a farkin' lot of websites to go to on the daily rounds during the Super 14 season, so as a service to mankind, each week I will give the injury list. While player injuries can sometimes be over-emphasised when assessing a team's chances in an upcoming rugby game, they do need to be noted. And keeping tabs on them in a 14-team competition where there is not one all-encompassing website is friggin' time-consuming.

Numbers refer to starting positions if it can be reasonably expected if fit would start. So without further ado (any additions/corrections would be welcomed) - season injuries in red, returning players in green and updates since list originally published (i.e. newsflashes) for the week in yellow:

BLUES - none
CHIEFS - 5 Robinson (calf, one game?), 8 Lauaki (broken wrist, return unknown), 11 Kinikinlau (hamstring 1 week), 13 Kahui (shoulder, 1 week?)
HURRICANES - none
CRUSADERS - none
HIGHLANDERS - 10 Evans (knee, probable return next week), 15 Horton (rib injury 2 weeks)
WARATAHS - 1 Dunning (knee, 6 weeks), 4 Kanaar (knee - season), 5 Vickerman (off season surgery, Week 8+), 8 Lyons (knee, 3 weeks)
BRUMBIES - 6 Heenan (off season surgery, back Week 3?), 10 Larkham (husband duty, back next week), 16 Palavi (neck, 1 week?)
REDS - 9 Cordingley (foot surgery, Week 4?), 12 Johanssen and 21 Cooper (Discipline - one game), 14 Caleb Brown (hamstring - 2 weeks), 15 Latham (knee - season)
FORCE - none
BULLS - 4 Botha (knee/calf, return unknown), 15 van der Westhuyzen (will return from Japan mid-Feb), 16 Ralepelle (knee, 4-6 weeks), 17 Gerber (arm fracture, 4-6 weeks), 18 Dlulane (neck surgery, no date), 19 Spies (knee, one month?), 22 Welsh (hamstring), back-up props Steenkamp, Bands injured/not fit???
CHEETAHS - 1 Du Randt (off season surgery, not fit), 4 Duncan (ankle, return unknown), 5 Pieterse (broken foot - season?), 12 Goodes (off season surgery, not fit), 15 Fortuin (off season surgery, not fit)
LIONS - prop Smit, hooker Reynecke, 8 Cronje (not yet fit), 14 Jaco Pretorius (hamstring, 1 week)
SHARKS - 4 Ackerman, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 18 van der Berg (ankle, 1 week), 20 Mathie (?), Bobby Skinstad (not yet fit)
STORMERS - reserve outside backs Booi and Chavhanga injured.

Super 14 Preview - SAF teams

Time is running out, so let’s look at the Saffers in one hit. Actually the real reason is my knowledge on South African rugby is not as complete as the NZ and Oz teams (obviously), so sage words may not be in large supply. Part of the problem is getting to grips with names – there’s a Heinke van der Merwe, Ryno van der Merwe, Franco van der Merwe and Francois van der Merwe; apparently they are four different people and when you see names such as Egon Seconds you do fleetingly wonder if someone is taking the piss.

Anyway, sharing my limited knowledge on the SAF franchises:

The BULLS have made the semis the last two years supposedly on the back of an impenetrable fortress at home, but 2006 saw them actually go only 4-3 at Loftus. They are infuriatingly inconsistent away e.g. last year saw them snatch a draw at Hamilton only to lose to the Reds the week after, but there can be no denying they will be in the mix again.

They start 2007 with more injury concerns than most: Bakkies Botha out of the engine room and a mini-crisis at prop, but they do have a settled squad strengthened by picking up van Heerden and Julies from the Lions, although their most important acquisition may be the backs coach (Louden) they’ve recruited from Australia. If they finally start playing some 15-man rugby rather than ignoring their talented backline, they could be dangerous.

Much has been made of the horror away trip they have – Canberra, Sydney, Christchurch, Dunedin and Wellington are probably not the destinations of choice for rugby teams looking to win the Super 14, but the flip-side of that is their opponents at home should be put away. So how they shape up against fellow SAF teams, starting with the Sharks in Week 1, will determine whether they make the semis for the third time in a row.

Residents of Durban believe it could be the year of the SHARKS. Their optimism is based on a vastly improved showing last year - being pipped out of the semis by the narrowest of margins, and a draw that sees them at home for 6 out of their first 7 matches. The road trip is only 4 weeks this year, and at the “kinder” destinations of Perth, Brisbane, Auckland and Hamilton.

On the personnel front, Tony Brown is not returning and Russell has gone to the Stormers, but that is ably covered by a fit Butch James and rising star Francois Steyn. The only other starter missing is lock Ackerman (injured). The squad looks strong and has depth, so there is just cause for the optimism. My main question is – as the Bulls found out last year – having the Brumbies, Tahs, Crusaders and Canes visiting your patch does not guarantee the home wins vital for succeeding in this competition, although they do meet 3 NZ franchises in the first 7 weeks when the ABs are out.

The CHEETAHS made a good fist of their first year in the competition and went on to share the Currie Cup with the Bulls. Like the Sharks have a kind draw with 6 of their first 7 games at home although again, the opponents will test them. Didn’t handle their first road trip at all well with three heavy losses and this year have five weeks away instead of four.

While their squad is not too different from last year with no significant losses, I suspect their second year will be harder than their first – to have any chance need to win their home games early against the likes of the Crusaders, Tahs, Chiefs and Brumbies.

The STORMERS disappointed last year, unable to capitalize on their home schedule in the first half of the competition before embarking on their road trip. Some of the early games were heartbreakers; narrow and late losses to the Tahs, Canes and Cheetahs.

Their problem was scoring; an average last year of 20 points and 2 tries doesn’t cut it in this competition, so the return of Breyton Paulse from overseas will be welcomed, as will the signings of Russell from the Sharks and Jantjes from the Cats. Add in the young potential of Corne Uys and Gio Aplon and that scoring average should go up.

The pack has been bolstered by the return of lock Selborne Boome, and of course they have a gilt-edged loose forward trio who if remaining healthy will be one of the best around.

The problem is the draw – the five week road trip is the same as the Bulls and they have it from Week 4. But don’t be surprised at an improved showing and a run at the semis like the Sharks managed last year once they get home.

Which leaves the CATS, now remained the LIONS and let’s get the joke out of the way, will still probably be Pussies. Actually, I think the Lions could be the real wild-card of 2007; their squad bears little resemblance to last year’s, which when you’ve been residing in the cellar ain’t such a bad thing, and their new coach took the SAF u-19 side to a world title in 2005 and also managed to turn around the Lions’ fortunes in the Currie Cup last year, winning 8 on the trot at the end.

Losing van Heerden to the Bulls is significant, although they get a not yet fit Jacques Cronje in exchange, and at least they have their mercurial first five Pretorius fit from Week 1 this year. They’ll spring some upsets this year, but probably not enough to make the semis.

Predictions:

Bulls 9-4 and another losing semifinal effort away from home
Sharks 6-7 mid-table
Stormers 6-7 mid-table
Cheetahs 3-10 bottom three
Lions 4-9 and not the wooden spoon holders that everyone is expecting

OT - Namedropping

Went to the casino for the first time in a while last night ... some American not of the same colour (what is the correct PC term for Afro-American these days?) sat to my left when a seat became vacant.

Me being a friendly guy and all started up a conversation - actually I just wanted to find out if he could play poker - and over the course of half an hour the salient parts of the conversation went something like this:


"g'day Rob" "Nathan"
"what part of the States you from?" "Philadelphia"
"here long?" " 'til Sunday, then to Australia for a month"
"got that wrong, should be NZ for a month and Australia for a week" (sorry cousins, had to throw that in)
"here on holiday?" "touring"
"oh you a muso?" "yeah"
"oh ok mind me asking what group you're in; probably haven't heard of it" "nah, no problem, Boyz II Men"

Well after picking me jaw up off the floor carried on talking - helluva nice guy and defo the most famous person I've ever played poker with. Might even go and buy their latest CD for the wife with the money I won off him :-)