Super 14 Preview - SAF teams
Time is running out, so let’s look at the Saffers in one hit. Actually the real reason is my knowledge on South African rugby is not as complete as the NZ and Oz teams (obviously), so sage words may not be in large supply. Part of the problem is getting to grips with names – there’s a Heinke van der Merwe, Ryno van der Merwe, Franco van der Merwe and Francois van der Merwe; apparently they are four different people and when you see names such as Egon Seconds you do fleetingly wonder if someone is taking the piss.
Anyway, sharing my limited knowledge on the SAF franchises:
The BULLS have made the semis the last two years supposedly on the back of an impenetrable fortress at home, but 2006 saw them actually go only 4-3 at Loftus. They are infuriatingly inconsistent away e.g. last year saw them snatch a draw at Hamilton only to lose to the Reds the week after, but there can be no denying they will be in the mix again.
They start 2007 with more injury concerns than most: Bakkies Botha out of the engine room and a mini-crisis at prop, but they do have a settled squad strengthened by picking up van Heerden and Julies from the Lions, although their most important acquisition may be the backs coach (Louden) they’ve recruited from Australia. If they finally start playing some 15-man rugby rather than ignoring their talented backline, they could be dangerous.
Much has been made of the horror away trip they have – Canberra, Sydney, Christchurch, Dunedin and Wellington are probably not the destinations of choice for rugby teams looking to win the Super 14, but the flip-side of that is their opponents at home should be put away. So how they shape up against fellow SAF teams, starting with the Sharks in Week 1, will determine whether they make the semis for the third time in a row.
Residents of Durban believe it could be the year of the SHARKS. Their optimism is based on a vastly improved showing last year - being pipped out of the semis by the narrowest of margins, and a draw that sees them at home for 6 out of their first 7 matches. The road trip is only 4 weeks this year, and at the “kinder” destinations of Perth, Brisbane, Auckland and Hamilton.
On the personnel front, Tony Brown is not returning and Russell has gone to the Stormers, but that is ably covered by a fit Butch James and rising star Francois Steyn. The only other starter missing is lock Ackerman (injured). The squad looks strong and has depth, so there is just cause for the optimism. My main question is – as the Bulls found out last year – having the Brumbies, Tahs, Crusaders and Canes visiting your patch does not guarantee the home wins vital for succeeding in this competition, although they do meet 3 NZ franchises in the first 7 weeks when the ABs are out.
The CHEETAHS made a good fist of their first year in the competition and went on to share the Currie Cup with the Bulls. Like the Sharks have a kind draw with 6 of their first 7 games at home although again, the opponents will test them. Didn’t handle their first road trip at all well with three heavy losses and this year have five weeks away instead of four.
While their squad is not too different from last year with no significant losses, I suspect their second year will be harder than their first – to have any chance need to win their home games early against the likes of the Crusaders, Tahs, Chiefs and Brumbies.
The STORMERS disappointed last year, unable to capitalize on their home schedule in the first half of the competition before embarking on their road trip. Some of the early games were heartbreakers; narrow and late losses to the Tahs, Canes and Cheetahs.
Their problem was scoring; an average last year of 20 points and 2 tries doesn’t cut it in this competition, so the return of Breyton Paulse from overseas will be welcomed, as will the signings of Russell from the Sharks and Jantjes from the Cats. Add in the young potential of Corne Uys and Gio Aplon and that scoring average should go up.
The pack has been bolstered by the return of lock Selborne Boome, and of course they have a gilt-edged loose forward trio who if remaining healthy will be one of the best around.
The problem is the draw – the five week road trip is the same as the Bulls and they have it from Week 4. But don’t be surprised at an improved showing and a run at the semis like the Sharks managed last year once they get home.
Which leaves the CATS, now remained the LIONS and let’s get the joke out of the way, will still probably be Pussies. Actually, I think the Lions could be the real wild-card of 2007; their squad bears little resemblance to last year’s, which when you’ve been residing in the cellar ain’t such a bad thing, and their new coach took the SAF u-19 side to a world title in 2005 and also managed to turn around the Lions’ fortunes in the Currie Cup last year, winning 8 on the trot at the end.
Losing van Heerden to the Bulls is significant, although they get a not yet fit Jacques Cronje in exchange, and at least they have their mercurial first five Pretorius fit from Week 1 this year. They’ll spring some upsets this year, but probably not enough to make the semis.
Predictions:
Bulls 9-4 and another losing semifinal effort away from home
Sharks 6-7 mid-table
Stormers 6-7 mid-table
Cheetahs 3-10 bottom three
Lions 4-9 and not the wooden spoon holders that everyone is expecting
Anyway, sharing my limited knowledge on the SAF franchises:
The BULLS have made the semis the last two years supposedly on the back of an impenetrable fortress at home, but 2006 saw them actually go only 4-3 at Loftus. They are infuriatingly inconsistent away e.g. last year saw them snatch a draw at Hamilton only to lose to the Reds the week after, but there can be no denying they will be in the mix again.
They start 2007 with more injury concerns than most: Bakkies Botha out of the engine room and a mini-crisis at prop, but they do have a settled squad strengthened by picking up van Heerden and Julies from the Lions, although their most important acquisition may be the backs coach (Louden) they’ve recruited from Australia. If they finally start playing some 15-man rugby rather than ignoring their talented backline, they could be dangerous.
Much has been made of the horror away trip they have – Canberra, Sydney, Christchurch, Dunedin and Wellington are probably not the destinations of choice for rugby teams looking to win the Super 14, but the flip-side of that is their opponents at home should be put away. So how they shape up against fellow SAF teams, starting with the Sharks in Week 1, will determine whether they make the semis for the third time in a row.
Residents of Durban believe it could be the year of the SHARKS. Their optimism is based on a vastly improved showing last year - being pipped out of the semis by the narrowest of margins, and a draw that sees them at home for 6 out of their first 7 matches. The road trip is only 4 weeks this year, and at the “kinder” destinations of Perth, Brisbane, Auckland and Hamilton.
On the personnel front, Tony Brown is not returning and Russell has gone to the Stormers, but that is ably covered by a fit Butch James and rising star Francois Steyn. The only other starter missing is lock Ackerman (injured). The squad looks strong and has depth, so there is just cause for the optimism. My main question is – as the Bulls found out last year – having the Brumbies, Tahs, Crusaders and Canes visiting your patch does not guarantee the home wins vital for succeeding in this competition, although they do meet 3 NZ franchises in the first 7 weeks when the ABs are out.
The CHEETAHS made a good fist of their first year in the competition and went on to share the Currie Cup with the Bulls. Like the Sharks have a kind draw with 6 of their first 7 games at home although again, the opponents will test them. Didn’t handle their first road trip at all well with three heavy losses and this year have five weeks away instead of four.
While their squad is not too different from last year with no significant losses, I suspect their second year will be harder than their first – to have any chance need to win their home games early against the likes of the Crusaders, Tahs, Chiefs and Brumbies.
The STORMERS disappointed last year, unable to capitalize on their home schedule in the first half of the competition before embarking on their road trip. Some of the early games were heartbreakers; narrow and late losses to the Tahs, Canes and Cheetahs.
Their problem was scoring; an average last year of 20 points and 2 tries doesn’t cut it in this competition, so the return of Breyton Paulse from overseas will be welcomed, as will the signings of Russell from the Sharks and Jantjes from the Cats. Add in the young potential of Corne Uys and Gio Aplon and that scoring average should go up.
The pack has been bolstered by the return of lock Selborne Boome, and of course they have a gilt-edged loose forward trio who if remaining healthy will be one of the best around.
The problem is the draw – the five week road trip is the same as the Bulls and they have it from Week 4. But don’t be surprised at an improved showing and a run at the semis like the Sharks managed last year once they get home.
Which leaves the CATS, now remained the LIONS and let’s get the joke out of the way, will still probably be Pussies. Actually, I think the Lions could be the real wild-card of 2007; their squad bears little resemblance to last year’s, which when you’ve been residing in the cellar ain’t such a bad thing, and their new coach took the SAF u-19 side to a world title in 2005 and also managed to turn around the Lions’ fortunes in the Currie Cup last year, winning 8 on the trot at the end.
Losing van Heerden to the Bulls is significant, although they get a not yet fit Jacques Cronje in exchange, and at least they have their mercurial first five Pretorius fit from Week 1 this year. They’ll spring some upsets this year, but probably not enough to make the semis.
Predictions:
Bulls 9-4 and another losing semifinal effort away from home
Sharks 6-7 mid-table
Stormers 6-7 mid-table
Cheetahs 3-10 bottom three
Lions 4-9 and not the wooden spoon holders that everyone is expecting
Labels: 2007S14
posted by Rob Crawford at 9:31 AM
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