Weekend Wrap
I hate doing fucking stupid things. Aaargh. Let me explain.
In punting land, there is such a thing known as the Gambler's Fallacy, which can be simply explained thus: if you toss a coin five times and the first four times it lands on heads, what are the chances of a head on the fifth toss?
The answer of course is 50% but some people still believe in Lady Luck and the tooth fairy and think because it's landed on heads four times in a row surely a tail is "due" this time. God bless 'em.
So when the Lions troop to Perth and are paying well over $5 again to win their Super 14 match against the Force those demons start entering my head. Nahhh they can't win three on the trot.They've never won in Oz, etc etc. So despite rating them a $3.85 chance and end up paying $5.60 at kickoff - I don't bet. They win. AAAAAARGGGGHH.
And of course to compound matters, the only bet I have loses as what I feared might happen in Blomfontein came into reality as the Crusaders turned up to play and the Cheetahs didn't. I'm still not convinced about the Crusaders - I don't think the Sharks will be as charitable in Durban this coming weekend and they'll lose there. Will be interesting to see how the TAB price it up this afternoon.
Still, I'm not as stupid as the people who took a small amount of my money early last week wanting to back the Sharks as the leader of the ladder after Round 4. There's no such thing as free money in gambling but that is about as close as it comes.
In punting land, there is such a thing known as the Gambler's Fallacy, which can be simply explained thus: if you toss a coin five times and the first four times it lands on heads, what are the chances of a head on the fifth toss?
The answer of course is 50% but some people still believe in Lady Luck and the tooth fairy and think because it's landed on heads four times in a row surely a tail is "due" this time. God bless 'em.
So when the Lions troop to Perth and are paying well over $5 again to win their Super 14 match against the Force those demons start entering my head. Nahhh they can't win three on the trot.They've never won in Oz, etc etc. So despite rating them a $3.85 chance and end up paying $5.60 at kickoff - I don't bet. They win. AAAAAARGGGGHH.
And of course to compound matters, the only bet I have loses as what I feared might happen in Blomfontein came into reality as the Crusaders turned up to play and the Cheetahs didn't. I'm still not convinced about the Crusaders - I don't think the Sharks will be as charitable in Durban this coming weekend and they'll lose there. Will be interesting to see how the TAB price it up this afternoon.
Still, I'm not as stupid as the people who took a small amount of my money early last week wanting to back the Sharks as the leader of the ladder after Round 4. There's no such thing as free money in gambling but that is about as close as it comes.
Labels: post mortems
posted by Rob Crawford at 10:34 AM
1 Comments:
So Rob,
Who's the best odds to win the overall competition at this stage? For me, the Blues would have to have the inside running but.....
LB
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