Super 14 Week 3

Straight into it:

STORMERS v CHIEFS

The only two teams without a win match up and it'd be a brave person who can put any money on either side with confidence. The Stormers have been insipid so far while the Chiefs' injury woes are well-documented.

To me, it's last chance saloon for the Stormers. Already the knives are out in Cape Town and this is their last home game before their Aus/NZ road trip. If they can't get up for this game, they'll be favourites for the wooden spoon, so I'm taking a risk on them.

My Prices: Stormers $1.92 Chiefs $2.22 Draw $33
NZ TAB: Stormers $2.10 Chiefs $1.70
Betfair (best available to back): Stormers $2.16 Chiefs $1.87 Draw $29

BULLS v FORCE

To those who feel sorry for the Chiefs, spare a thought for the Bulls who by my count have 10 of their squad out with injury. Despite that, I think they'll have too much grunt up front for the Force and as long as they keep the game tight and boring, and don't give away too many penalties in Shepherd's kicking range, they should run out winners. No bet game for me, although the Force's price is a bit big IMO - if they drift further I may play.

MP: Bulls $1.48 Force $3.33 Draw $40
NZ TAB: Bulls $1.28 Force $3.50
Betfair: Bulls $1.33 Force $4.00 Draw $32

HURRICANES v BLUES

My stats show the home advantage in all-NZ derbies is not that important, so form becomes the main criteria. Despte recent history, the Blues deserve to be favourites for this one and here's hoping two of the more exciting backlines in the competition can show their wares. No bet.

MP: Hurricanes $2.38 Blues $1.80 Draw $40
NZ TAB: Hurricanes $2.20 Blues $1.65
Betfair: Hurricanes $2.32 Blues $1.84 Draw $28

REDS v BRUMBIES

The Reds have shown they will be no easy-beats this year but I think the Brumbies will prevail. Unfortunately the price is about right.

MP: Reds $2.82 Brumbies $1.61 Draw $40
NZ TAB: Reds $2.80 Brumbies $1.40
Betfair: Reds $2.88 Brumbies $1.56 Draw $29

CHEETAHS v WARATAHS

The most interesting match up this weekend. Hard to judge - most semi-final contenders from this part of the world need to return from SAF 2 and 1, and I still believe the Tahs fall into that category. Won't be an easy game - will be interesting to see how the depleted Tahs tight 5 stand up; if they get parity there and Hewat brings his kicking boots to the park, they should squeak a win. At the prices, they're worth a small wager.

MP: Cheetahs $2.11 Waratahs $2.04 Draw $28
NZ TAB: Cheetahs $1.75 Waratahs $2.00
Betfair: Cheetahs $1.85 Waratahs $2.22 Draw $26

LIONS v CRUSADERS

Andre Pretorius remains on the sidelines which is a pity as the Lions are not the same team without him. There's a lot of Cantabrians making their first trip to the high veldt and while it's difficult to see them losing, at the prices I have to have a wee speculator on the Lions (without much expectation).

MP: Lions $3.45 Crusaders $1.45 Draw $50
NZ TAB: Lions $4.00 Crusaders $1.22
Betfair: Lions $4.30 Crusaders $1.31 Draw $32

SHARKS v HIGHLANDERS

Another game where the favourites are probably starting too short - both teams have had difficulty scoring points (the Sharks have scored late in both games blowing out the margin) and I won't be surprised at a reasonably low-scoring encounter. In such a case, no team deserves to be $5+ as the bounce of the ball, a kicker having an off day, or a reffing decision could play a part.

MP: Sharks $1.49 Highlanders $3.28 Draw $40
NZ TAB: Sharks $1.16 Highlanders $4.75
Betfair: Sharks $1.26 Highlanders $5.10 Draw $32

BETTING SUPER 14 and RECORD SO FAR:

Markets on Betfair can sometimes change significantly just prior to kick-off so more often than not, the decision to place bets is left late. While this week I'm looking at 4 (maybe 5) games out of the 7 betting-wise, it all depends on the prices. So far in the first two weeks, my record is 1 from 5 but I'm in the black (numbers refer to a starting bank of 100 which bears no relation to what the bet sizes are):

Week 1 - Backed Lions v Waratahs (loss -1)
- Laid Chiefs and backed Brumbies (won +5.54)
- Laid Reds v Hurricanes (loss -2.15)
Week 2 - Backed Tahs v Sharks (loss -1.42)
- laid Lions v Highlanders (loss -0.34)

I don't usually trade rugby in-play (not for the Super 14 anyway) but got involved in the Chiefs v Hurricanes game (won +0.50) and pregame trades in the Crusaders v Reds saw me net +1.05.

As you can see, I tend to judge games tighter than the market (I might explain why another time) which usually means I end up backing outsiders with a less than 50% expectation of winning. However, if you keep backing $4 and $5 shots you don't need too many to come in to end up in the black; last year my biggest win on the Super 14 was when the Highlanders upset the Brumbies paying $8 when no-one gave them a chance. It's not how many games you get right - it's the Profit/Loss column that counts.