Super 14 Week 2

Not a particularly appetising round of matches from a betting point of view. All home teams are favourites, and with maybe one exception, justifiably so. Unlike Week 1 where 3 outsiders (2 away from home) got the chocolates, I cannot see much value – so these will be short and sweet:

CHIEFS v HURRICANES

Apparently a “must-win” game for both sides, in Week 2. If the Hurricanes' forward pack again goes MIA like GI’s did in the Vietnam war, they’ll suffer the same result. Both teams disrupted by injury; you’d think the Chiefs at home will be able to do enough to win but it won’t have any of my money riding on it.

My Prices: Chiefs $1.71 – Hurricanes $2.60 – Draw $33
NZ TAB: Chiefs $1.50 – Hurricanes $2.50
Betfair (best available to back): Chiefs $1.62 – Hurricanes $2.76 – Draw $32

STORMERS v FORCE

Have found it difficult to price this game up; both teams need more output from their tight five as both teams have reasonable backs if they get enough of the pill. Hard to predict who that will be; so I’ll sit and watch.

MP: None
NZ TAB: Stormers $1.40 Force $2.80
Betfair: Stormers $1.55 - Force $2.98 – Draw $32

SHARKS v WARATAHS

Don’t know what to make of the Tahs last week – did enough to win; but how bad were the opposition? While people are jumping on the Sharks bandwagon, they were outplayed (and should have been well behind) for the first 20 minutes and their late try was almost intercepted which would have made the score 10-10 instead of 17-3.

I’d like to back the Tahs in this one but the price is not quite good enough to do so – I do think this game is one possibility for a home loss.

MP: Sharks $1.88 – Waratahs $2.30 – Draw $30
NZ TAB: Sharks $1.75 – Waratahs $2.00
Betfair: Sharks $1.70 – Waratahs $2.46 – Draw $30

CRUSADERS v REDS

Annoyed that I went off the Reds late last week - IMHO they were one of the more impressive teams last week, especially in the forwards where unlike most they showed they could hang onto the ball. Obviously away to the Crusaders is a different test but they are not without hope. If I can get $5 at Betfair, I’ll have a nibble.

Note Mr Yellow Card (Mark Lawrence) is in charge of this game, so don’t expect a free-flowing encounter, which combined with possible inclement weather might just make this game a lot tighter than expected. Crusaders 12 and under might be worth considering.

MP: Crusaders $1.33 – Reds $4.26 – Draw $66
NZ TAB: Crusaders $1.20 – Reds $4.20
Betfair: Crusaders $1.29 – Reds $4.80 – Draw $40

BRUMBIES v BLUES

Match of the round for me. Nothing I saw in Week 1 has made me change my opinion these two teams – barring injury disruptions worse than average – will be in the top 4 come playoff time. Brumbies have the best record at home of any S14 team and while it’s on the cards they’ll drop one in a year and could easily be this one, at the prices I’m not getting involved.

MP: Brumbies $1.67– Blues $2.67 – Draw $36
NZ TAB: Brumbies $1.70 – Blues $2.10
Betfair: Brumbies $1.70 – Blues $2.52 – Draw $30

BULLS v CHEETAHS

Bulls played well enough to win last week but made a truckload of mistakes such as handling errors. Tidy that up and they should win even with their injury woes, although I’ll admit here and now I probably was a little dismissive of the Cheetahs pre-season.

MP: Bulls $1.72 – Cheetahs $2.56 – Draw $33
NZ TAB: Bulls $1.60 – Cheetahs $2.25
Betfair: Bulls $1.67 – Cheetahs $2.54 – Draw $30

LIONS v HIGHLANDERS

And so the round ends with this clash of the titans. Andre Pretorius pulling out last week was not the news my money wanted to hear – sinking a bet before kick-off, and I fear without the captain and playmaker, the Highlanders just might get lucky – again. I think the Highlanders can survive without their No. 10 better than the Lions can. I might be tempted to bet if the Lions continue to shorten.

MP: Lions $2.15 – Highlanders $2.00 – Draw $29
NZ TAB: Lions $1.85 – Highlanders $1.90
Betfair: Lions $1.93 – Highlanders $2.12 – Draw $29