Super 14 Week 1
BLUES v CRUSADERS
As a Blues’ fan, I still have nightmares about last year’s opener when after dominating the first half, the rain came, the Canes scored 3 tries in the blink of an eye and that was that. I’m expecting another game where there will be plenty of points as the defence on both teams won’t be 100% efficient in Week 1.
In that regard, Sam Tuitupou must be licking his chops at the channel between Brett and Laulala – why Tipoki isn’t starting at 12 is personally a slight mystery to me, and the defence around the fringes/inside backs is what I’ll watch for in the early stanzas. I don’t expect too much domination from one pack over the other – so the big D and who takes the opportunities are the keys to me.
Given that the Crusaders are $3.50 to win the comp, I was a little surprised the NZ TAB opened the Blues as favs for this game and they have shortened during the week, to the point that even though I think on the balance of probabilities the Blues will win, the Crusaders are almost worth considering. But this game is a no bet for me.
My Prices: Blues $1.87 – Crusaders $2.30 – Draw $33
NZ TAB: Blues $1.65 – Crusaders $2.20 (opened $1.75 - $2.00)
Betfair (best available to back): Blues $1.70 – Crusaders $2.48 – Draw $30
FORCE v HIGHLANDERS
Oh dear – Groundhog Day and no Nick Evans. Short and sweet, I can’t see how the southern men are going to win this game.
MP: Force $1.57 – Highlanders $3.00 – Draw $33
NZ TAB: Force $1.45 – Highlanders $2.65
Betfair: Force $1.40 – Highlanders $3.40 – Draw $30
No bet.
LIONS v WARATAHS
You have to sympathise with the journalist who has to write stories with deadlines weeks out. From the Rugby News comes this pearl of wisdom from Spiro Zavos:
“(The Waratahs) play their opening match … against the Lions. They have plenty of time to get to South Africa, rather than the seven days that the other Australian or New Zealand sides have…”
So what do the ‘Tahs do? Decide to fly over on the Wednesday before the game, giving them about 53 hours to get over the jet lag etc before kick-off on the high veldt. Plenty of raised eyebrows at this, but as someone who has had to perform at international sport a few days after a long-haul flight, I will venture the opinion it is FUCKING STUPID.
Look, the ‘Tahs will probably win. But the combination of this daft idea, the injuries to the pack, and a bunch of nobody pussycats with plenty to prove and nothing to lose playing their first game in a new jersey for a new coach at home, it’s a mix of ingredients for an upset. I’m plonking a small wager on the Lions.
MP: Lions $3.45 – Waratahs $1.45 – Draw $50
NZ TAB: Lions $4.00 – Waratahs $1.22
Betfair: Lions $4.00 – Waratahs $1.36 – Draw $32
CHIEFS v BRUMBIES
Match of the round for me. Two sides who have in the last couple of years have given us highly entertaining and close games (both played in Canberra). The stats men will tell you the Chiefs haven’t beaten the Brumbies since 1999, but that is of little relevance to me.
What is relevant is both sides have a key player out; Robinson and Larkham. I’ve heard that Waikato in the Air New Zealand Cup had the best lineout when Robinson played, and the worst when he didn’t. Ouch. The Brumbies without Larkham? Well at the end of last year they did manage to beat the Canes without him, but tripped up against the Highlanders and got murdered late by the Crusaders.
A game that isn’t easy to call – the home advantage should perhaps tip the favourites tag over to the Chiefs, but not by the margin the prices suggest. I have to back the Brumbies in this one; another option is to look for the points start as it’s unlikely to be a runaway victory (for either team).
MP: Chiefs $1.87 – Brumbies $2.30 – Draw $33
NZ TAB: Chiefs $1.50 – Brumbies $2.50
Betfair: Chiefs $1.60 – Brumbies $2.60 – Draw $30
REDS v HURRICANES
My optimism about the Reds’ ability to perhaps turn their woeful form around has taken a massive nosedive over the last few days – players that are needed can’t be bothered getting out of bed for training, Ryan Nicholas ain’t coming after all, and then I found these following two quotes:
Ben Tune: "Every training session I feel a twinge or my knee will hurt. There is just never any let-up"
Chris Latham (on Clinton Schifcoske): "I feel for Clinton. He's pretty much been left to his own devices."
While the 2007 version of the Hurricanes will not be the same as the 2006 vintage, their backs will have to seriously stuff-up for them not to win this game. May not be that much between the packs, but from 9 to 15 they’re a class or three apart. Could get ugly if the Canes use the ball properly. Probably no bet at the prices, but at Betfair I’d be happy to give anyone $2.66 on the Reds.
MP: Reds $3.00 – Hurricanes $1.57 – Draw $33
NZ TAB: Reds $2.65 – Hurricanes $1.45
Betfair: Reds $2.66 – Hurricanes $1.59 – Draw $28
SHARKS v BULLS
The first of two interesting SAF clashes, with the two teams who have some optimism regarding their Super 14 chances squaring off at Durban. To say the Sharks are miffed at losing their semifinal spot to the Bulls last year would be an understatement, and this clash has some potential for more blood to be spilled than the Battle of the Somme.
Which would make us here in NZ quite happy – nothing better to watch two SAF teams bash the shit out of each other. But back to what’s important – who will win and why. Well here’s my answer – I don’t have a clue. Sit back and watch, although if the Bulls drift any further I might get involved.
MP: Sharks $2.08 – Bulls $2.08 – Draw $25
NZ TAB: Sharks $1.75 – Bulls $2.00
Betfair: Sharks $1.84 – Bulls $2.16 – Draw $34
CHEETAHS v STORMERS
And so the opening week is concluded by another potential bash-a-thon, although the sides picked suggest they actually might try and play some rugby. But there will be no love lost between these teams – cue Cheetahs’ Marius Joubert to his former teammate JD Moller at a chance meeting at an airport: “We’re going to f*** you on Saturday”. Charming.
Another game where there shouldn’t be too much between the team’s prices and this is the one game where prices on the NZ TAB have moved significantly, the Stormers down to $2.15 from their opening quote of $2.40. Another sit and watch for me, unless the Stormers correct back past their starting price.
MP: Cheetahs $1.87 – Stormers $2.30 – Draw $33
NZ TAB: Cheetahs $1.65 – Stormers $2.15 (opened $1.55 - $2.40)
Betfair: Cheetahs $1.78 – Stormers $2.24 – Draw $28
As a Blues’ fan, I still have nightmares about last year’s opener when after dominating the first half, the rain came, the Canes scored 3 tries in the blink of an eye and that was that. I’m expecting another game where there will be plenty of points as the defence on both teams won’t be 100% efficient in Week 1.
In that regard, Sam Tuitupou must be licking his chops at the channel between Brett and Laulala – why Tipoki isn’t starting at 12 is personally a slight mystery to me, and the defence around the fringes/inside backs is what I’ll watch for in the early stanzas. I don’t expect too much domination from one pack over the other – so the big D and who takes the opportunities are the keys to me.
Given that the Crusaders are $3.50 to win the comp, I was a little surprised the NZ TAB opened the Blues as favs for this game and they have shortened during the week, to the point that even though I think on the balance of probabilities the Blues will win, the Crusaders are almost worth considering. But this game is a no bet for me.
My Prices: Blues $1.87 – Crusaders $2.30 – Draw $33
NZ TAB: Blues $1.65 – Crusaders $2.20 (opened $1.75 - $2.00)
Betfair (best available to back): Blues $1.70 – Crusaders $2.48 – Draw $30
FORCE v HIGHLANDERS
Oh dear – Groundhog Day and no Nick Evans. Short and sweet, I can’t see how the southern men are going to win this game.
MP: Force $1.57 – Highlanders $3.00 – Draw $33
NZ TAB: Force $1.45 – Highlanders $2.65
Betfair: Force $1.40 – Highlanders $3.40 – Draw $30
No bet.
LIONS v WARATAHS
You have to sympathise with the journalist who has to write stories with deadlines weeks out. From the Rugby News comes this pearl of wisdom from Spiro Zavos:
“(The Waratahs) play their opening match … against the Lions. They have plenty of time to get to South Africa, rather than the seven days that the other Australian or New Zealand sides have…”
So what do the ‘Tahs do? Decide to fly over on the Wednesday before the game, giving them about 53 hours to get over the jet lag etc before kick-off on the high veldt. Plenty of raised eyebrows at this, but as someone who has had to perform at international sport a few days after a long-haul flight, I will venture the opinion it is FUCKING STUPID.
Look, the ‘Tahs will probably win. But the combination of this daft idea, the injuries to the pack, and a bunch of nobody pussycats with plenty to prove and nothing to lose playing their first game in a new jersey for a new coach at home, it’s a mix of ingredients for an upset. I’m plonking a small wager on the Lions.
MP: Lions $3.45 – Waratahs $1.45 – Draw $50
NZ TAB: Lions $4.00 – Waratahs $1.22
Betfair: Lions $4.00 – Waratahs $1.36 – Draw $32
CHIEFS v BRUMBIES
Match of the round for me. Two sides who have in the last couple of years have given us highly entertaining and close games (both played in Canberra). The stats men will tell you the Chiefs haven’t beaten the Brumbies since 1999, but that is of little relevance to me.
What is relevant is both sides have a key player out; Robinson and Larkham. I’ve heard that Waikato in the Air New Zealand Cup had the best lineout when Robinson played, and the worst when he didn’t. Ouch. The Brumbies without Larkham? Well at the end of last year they did manage to beat the Canes without him, but tripped up against the Highlanders and got murdered late by the Crusaders.
A game that isn’t easy to call – the home advantage should perhaps tip the favourites tag over to the Chiefs, but not by the margin the prices suggest. I have to back the Brumbies in this one; another option is to look for the points start as it’s unlikely to be a runaway victory (for either team).
MP: Chiefs $1.87 – Brumbies $2.30 – Draw $33
NZ TAB: Chiefs $1.50 – Brumbies $2.50
Betfair: Chiefs $1.60 – Brumbies $2.60 – Draw $30
REDS v HURRICANES
My optimism about the Reds’ ability to perhaps turn their woeful form around has taken a massive nosedive over the last few days – players that are needed can’t be bothered getting out of bed for training, Ryan Nicholas ain’t coming after all, and then I found these following two quotes:
Ben Tune: "Every training session I feel a twinge or my knee will hurt. There is just never any let-up"
Chris Latham (on Clinton Schifcoske): "I feel for Clinton. He's pretty much been left to his own devices."
While the 2007 version of the Hurricanes will not be the same as the 2006 vintage, their backs will have to seriously stuff-up for them not to win this game. May not be that much between the packs, but from 9 to 15 they’re a class or three apart. Could get ugly if the Canes use the ball properly. Probably no bet at the prices, but at Betfair I’d be happy to give anyone $2.66 on the Reds.
MP: Reds $3.00 – Hurricanes $1.57 – Draw $33
NZ TAB: Reds $2.65 – Hurricanes $1.45
Betfair: Reds $2.66 – Hurricanes $1.59 – Draw $28
SHARKS v BULLS
The first of two interesting SAF clashes, with the two teams who have some optimism regarding their Super 14 chances squaring off at Durban. To say the Sharks are miffed at losing their semifinal spot to the Bulls last year would be an understatement, and this clash has some potential for more blood to be spilled than the Battle of the Somme.
Which would make us here in NZ quite happy – nothing better to watch two SAF teams bash the shit out of each other. But back to what’s important – who will win and why. Well here’s my answer – I don’t have a clue. Sit back and watch, although if the Bulls drift any further I might get involved.
MP: Sharks $2.08 – Bulls $2.08 – Draw $25
NZ TAB: Sharks $1.75 – Bulls $2.00
Betfair: Sharks $1.84 – Bulls $2.16 – Draw $34
CHEETAHS v STORMERS
And so the opening week is concluded by another potential bash-a-thon, although the sides picked suggest they actually might try and play some rugby. But there will be no love lost between these teams – cue Cheetahs’ Marius Joubert to his former teammate JD Moller at a chance meeting at an airport: “We’re going to f*** you on Saturday”. Charming.
Another game where there shouldn’t be too much between the team’s prices and this is the one game where prices on the NZ TAB have moved significantly, the Stormers down to $2.15 from their opening quote of $2.40. Another sit and watch for me, unless the Stormers correct back past their starting price.
MP: Cheetahs $1.87 – Stormers $2.30 – Draw $33
NZ TAB: Cheetahs $1.65 – Stormers $2.15 (opened $1.55 - $2.40)
Betfair: Cheetahs $1.78 – Stormers $2.24 – Draw $28
Labels: 2007S14
posted by Rob Crawford at 4:08 PM
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