Cricket: Super 8 Preview
Super Eight? More like the Surprising Eight, with India and Pakistan already knocked out. Personally, it’s more than a little annoying as 24 potential second-round opportunities to make money have been whittled down to perhaps 13, but on the bright side a few extra night’s sleep instead of watching cricket from 1.30 a.m. to 10 a.m. might be good for the long-term health.
So what can we expect? First, remember to watch the pitches. New venues – with considerable doubt over the use of Providence Stadium in Guyana which is due to host its first match in less than 48 hours. What has happened in the group stages has little bearing on what is about to happen, except for giving some pointers about how the real contenders are travelling.
Let’s get the minnows out of the way. I don’t expect them to win any games, although Bangladesh on their day does have the capability to beat someone, and anyone. So the conventional wisdom is Australia and NZ have been given a leg up as they play both minnows and have 2 points carried forward, an advantage over the other four.
While that is true to some extent and both antipodean sides have half the door opened to make the semifinals, I don’t think the other sides need to worry too much. For a start, until we see how significant the toss is on these new pitch blocks, such advantage may mean F.A. if you lose 5 tosses in a row. Sri Lanka won’t mind too much about already having their win v Bangladesh as their run rate (which may come into play) starts off very healthy.
Assuming Ireland and Bangladesh won’t make the semis. We’re faced with the problem of fitting six teams into four slots. The two I think are more likely to miss out are the West Indies and England. Admittedly I’ve only seen the one WI game in TV (the first against Pakistan) and while they played OK, I worry about their schedule at this stage which sees the Aussies first up tonight, the Kiwis two days later, and then traveling to Guyana to play Sri Lanka 3 days after that.
I’m not going to repeat the schedules of each team here but there are definitely some teams who have an easier schedule than others, and the WI fall into the “others”. While the Champions Trophy should serve as a reminder the hosts can play this version of the game quite well, it’s a tough road this week and 3 losses will mean they’re gone.
Despite the end to the Commonwealth Bank series, England are definitely the weakest ODI side left out of the major nations and IMHO are just not good enough to get through. Yes, if Pietersen, Collingwood and Flintoff all fire at the same time, or they get enough luck with the tosses, they have a chance of getting to the semis but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Of the four left, NZ’s chances have been dealt a cruel blow with the injury to Vincent. Not so much for his batting – his attitude is like a bunch of happy pills to his teammates and his fielding was like having a sixth bowler go 1/15 each match. In my mind, it’s no co-incidence NZ’s ODI form took a major upswing when he arrived midway through the CB series and I fear a correction may take place now he’s out. Of course I hope I’m wrong.
Down to three, and those writing off Australia because they think their bowlers are kak are being a bit premature. First, let’s see how they perform when there’s an even contest between bat and ball. Second, their batting line-up is more than capable of overcoming any deficiencies in this area. Still the team to beat.
I still think the side most likely to tip them over in a final is Sri Lanka. The win over India impressed me – they had the worst of it (losing the toss and batting first), and it wasn’t their stars who got them out of a tricky position early on, it was their young guns. A balanced bowling attack, a reasonable fielding side – yep, they’re the main dangers.
I’m not writing off South Africa but I just feel they’ll find a way to cock it up somehow, like they always do. The best way they can proceed in this competition is to get on a roll as they’re a side who plays best with a swagger in their step – so their first game against Sri Lanka is crucial. Win that, they have Ireland and Bangladesh after that, and look out the rest.
Looking into the crystal ball, the semis will possibly be NZ v Aus and SAF v SL. I’d plump for an Aus v SL final and ask me at a later date who will win the thing. Unfortunately, there’s not much value in the winner’s market – the value in this comp is to assess pitch/ground conditions quickly and bet accordingly during the game.
World Cup Winner (Betfair):
Australia $2.56
South Africa $6.20
Sri Lanka $6.20 (the only bet worth considering)
New Zealand $7.80
West Indies $10
England $16
Bangladesh $170
Ireland $760
So what can we expect? First, remember to watch the pitches. New venues – with considerable doubt over the use of Providence Stadium in Guyana which is due to host its first match in less than 48 hours. What has happened in the group stages has little bearing on what is about to happen, except for giving some pointers about how the real contenders are travelling.
Let’s get the minnows out of the way. I don’t expect them to win any games, although Bangladesh on their day does have the capability to beat someone, and anyone. So the conventional wisdom is Australia and NZ have been given a leg up as they play both minnows and have 2 points carried forward, an advantage over the other four.
While that is true to some extent and both antipodean sides have half the door opened to make the semifinals, I don’t think the other sides need to worry too much. For a start, until we see how significant the toss is on these new pitch blocks, such advantage may mean F.A. if you lose 5 tosses in a row. Sri Lanka won’t mind too much about already having their win v Bangladesh as their run rate (which may come into play) starts off very healthy.
Assuming Ireland and Bangladesh won’t make the semis. We’re faced with the problem of fitting six teams into four slots. The two I think are more likely to miss out are the West Indies and England. Admittedly I’ve only seen the one WI game in TV (the first against Pakistan) and while they played OK, I worry about their schedule at this stage which sees the Aussies first up tonight, the Kiwis two days later, and then traveling to Guyana to play Sri Lanka 3 days after that.
I’m not going to repeat the schedules of each team here but there are definitely some teams who have an easier schedule than others, and the WI fall into the “others”. While the Champions Trophy should serve as a reminder the hosts can play this version of the game quite well, it’s a tough road this week and 3 losses will mean they’re gone.
Despite the end to the Commonwealth Bank series, England are definitely the weakest ODI side left out of the major nations and IMHO are just not good enough to get through. Yes, if Pietersen, Collingwood and Flintoff all fire at the same time, or they get enough luck with the tosses, they have a chance of getting to the semis but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Of the four left, NZ’s chances have been dealt a cruel blow with the injury to Vincent. Not so much for his batting – his attitude is like a bunch of happy pills to his teammates and his fielding was like having a sixth bowler go 1/15 each match. In my mind, it’s no co-incidence NZ’s ODI form took a major upswing when he arrived midway through the CB series and I fear a correction may take place now he’s out. Of course I hope I’m wrong.
Down to three, and those writing off Australia because they think their bowlers are kak are being a bit premature. First, let’s see how they perform when there’s an even contest between bat and ball. Second, their batting line-up is more than capable of overcoming any deficiencies in this area. Still the team to beat.
I still think the side most likely to tip them over in a final is Sri Lanka. The win over India impressed me – they had the worst of it (losing the toss and batting first), and it wasn’t their stars who got them out of a tricky position early on, it was their young guns. A balanced bowling attack, a reasonable fielding side – yep, they’re the main dangers.
I’m not writing off South Africa but I just feel they’ll find a way to cock it up somehow, like they always do. The best way they can proceed in this competition is to get on a roll as they’re a side who plays best with a swagger in their step – so their first game against Sri Lanka is crucial. Win that, they have Ireland and Bangladesh after that, and look out the rest.
Looking into the crystal ball, the semis will possibly be NZ v Aus and SAF v SL. I’d plump for an Aus v SL final and ask me at a later date who will win the thing. Unfortunately, there’s not much value in the winner’s market – the value in this comp is to assess pitch/ground conditions quickly and bet accordingly during the game.
World Cup Winner (Betfair):
Australia $2.56
South Africa $6.20
Sri Lanka $6.20 (the only bet worth considering)
New Zealand $7.80
West Indies $10
England $16
Bangladesh $170
Ireland $760
Labels: cricket
posted by Rob Crawford at 6:42 AM
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