Cricket World Cup Preview

Right, let’s get the important thing out of the way – I don’t have a farkin’ clue who will win the World Cup. Anybody that thinks so-and-so will win IMHO are talking out of their rear end. Why? Because with a number of brand new grounds and re-laid pitch blocks on some of the old ones, not even Nostradamus can predict how the next 6 weeks will pan out.

Anyone who has read this blog from post one will know I look at the pitches and weather just as much as the teams when considering upcoming cricket games. And in this tournament, pitches and the weather will have a significant part to play, that much is definite. Weather? While it may not be the rainy season, you can expect rainfall for the next 6 weeks to be above zero mm and Messrs Duckworth and Lewis may come into play. Thankfully with the scheduling of reserve days and games not starting afresh if they are used, a “No result” stuffing up the competition should be avoided.

But it’s the pitches that need close inspection. The four venues for the group stages are not so important, principally because only one meaningful match is being staged at each venue. However by the time we reach the Super Eight stage, that changes. And it is here where there are sizeable question marks.

The Super Eight stage is being held at two completely new venues, another rebuilt after Mother Nature vented its fury, and a renovated stadium complete with new pitch block. The first half sees games played at the two new venues, Sir Viv Richards Stadium at Antigua (where there have been undulations identified in the pitch square) and Providence Stadium in Guyana (where the square didn’t seed as well as hoped). Brilliant. The second half uses venues in Grenada and Barbados, where there is a bit more confidence surrounding conditions.

So while I don’t have a farkin’ clue who is going to win this thing, I do expect the results in warm-up games and in the group stages to mean jack shit. Predictions that on the basis of a few collapses by SAF, NZ and WI in warm-up games this will be a bowler-dominated tournament are rubbish. It may turn out that way, but we won’t know until the eight remaining teams are in Antigua and Guyana. And in my reading, Kensington Oval in Barbados (which will also host the final) has more chance of being a run feast ground than a minefield.

Teams? Despite their recent tumble from Federer-class (although even he lost yesterday), Australia remains the side to beat and you can pretty much throw a blanket over the other 7 real contenders. I don’t read too much into SAF’s recent form (NZ’s too for that matter) because teams that run up win streaks at home need to be taken with a pinch of salt. It is an open competition, not so much because of the losses Australia has suffered, but due to the significant doubt over the conditions teams will play in (will ball dominate bat? Or the other way around? And will it be different from venue to venue? How much advantage will there be in winning the toss?).

Because of this doubt, my approach to the World Cup has been, and remains not to take any position at all in the winner’s market. Personally I believe there will be enough opportunities to profit from in-play trading during games and that’s where my energies will be concentrated.

If I had to get off the fence, Aus would be my pick to win, but at $3.20 on Betfair no thank you. I expect the South Africans to somehow stuff it up again, and if I didn’t have to take conditions into account, Sri Lanka is in my mind the main danger. India will leak too many runs in the field, and the remaining four teams who are all paying over $10 are a little over-priced as despite question marks over their consistency, all they have to do is win enough games to qualify for the semis and then win 2 games on the trot. Any of the eight sides can do that.