Weekend Wrap
Excuse me while I blow my own trumpet for a sec, but I’m still on cloud nine after the most profitable weekend I’ve had in a long time, although a 100% strike rate was skittled when the Crusaders scored after the final whistle sinking the Stormers at +20.5 points. Any feelings at being ripped off quickly disappeared when the Lions roared back at home where some kind soul had given me $3.10 on the match odds (and I also had given $1.50 on the Canes to cover my arse on the draw). That coupled with the Blues winning by more than 17 gave me a Meatloaf weekend (2 out of 3 ain’t bad) and +8.23 pt profit (+27.01 for the Super 14 YTD).
However most of the fat wallet came courtesy of people realising far too late that Sri Lanka were going to beat India at the Cricket World Cup early Sat a.m. NZL time, India remaining favourites until they were 5 down in the run chase. The in-play markets that I have been involved in so far during this World Cup have been characterised by price swings that remind me of what it was like 3 or 4 years ago. To give a couple of examples (relying on a less than accurate memory):
India were around $1.65 at the start of the run chase. First over is a maiden – price goes out to $1.75. A boundary gets hit in the second over – back down to $1.65. Typical of the over-reaction on what I term “micro” events regularly seen over the last couple of weeks.
Yet when Tendulkar goes out – India’s price goes out from $1.80 to $2.40 before settling at around $2.00 after a few minutes. So a key wicket sees a price change of 20 ticks while a maiden over sees a price change of 10 ticks. Brilliant stuff – long may it continue.
More about the cricket tomorrow – the Super 14 is into its second half and already people are saying the final 4 is more or less sorted and no-one will crack the teams in those positions. Think again people. I’ve only checked the last 4 years, but the top 4 after round 8 (and Round 7 when it was the Super 12) did not provide all 4 semifinalists. 2005 provided the most impressive turnaround, with the Bulls languishing in 8th place (out of 12) with 5 rounds to go and 9 points off the pace – they ended up 3rd after the round-robin (swapping places with the Highlanders who were 3rd but ended up 8th).
And where do I get such information? – a plug for one of the better websites I have found, an expat Brit living in NZ has a superb website for test rugby and Super 14 results – go to http://www.lassen.co.nz/pickandgo.php
While the Bulls are possibly the most vulnerable, don’t discount the Sharks heading south faster than a migrating gannet – I haven’t seen their game from the weekend (too busy watching South Africa lose to Australia in another sport), but the reports I’ve seen suggest they didn’t handle at all being behind on the scoreboard for once. If their road trip gets off to a rocky start in Perth at the weekend, the remainder of their season will be a tricky test of their composure and confidence.
The Super 14 next weekend has probably the best lot of games from a punting point of view for a while; it will be interesting to see the prices the TAB puts out for the Force/Sharks, Hurricanes/Bulls, and Lions/Brumbies in particular. Even the Highlanders/Cheetahs and Blues/Chiefs might provide some opportunities – the only “dud” game probably being the Tahs v Crusaders. A week where I'm preparing early as I'm half expecting "false" prices to come out.
One thing I do expect is more upsets – so far this year only 30 favourites at the tote have won (out of 52 games) and if it wasn’t for a late Stephen Donald penalty we would have had two teams winning coming off 30-point thrashings the week before. One of the main things to bear in mind with the Super 14 is there are some teams whose performance is inconsistent from week to week – frustrating for fans but a potential goldmine for punters.
However most of the fat wallet came courtesy of people realising far too late that Sri Lanka were going to beat India at the Cricket World Cup early Sat a.m. NZL time, India remaining favourites until they were 5 down in the run chase. The in-play markets that I have been involved in so far during this World Cup have been characterised by price swings that remind me of what it was like 3 or 4 years ago. To give a couple of examples (relying on a less than accurate memory):
India were around $1.65 at the start of the run chase. First over is a maiden – price goes out to $1.75. A boundary gets hit in the second over – back down to $1.65. Typical of the over-reaction on what I term “micro” events regularly seen over the last couple of weeks.
Yet when Tendulkar goes out – India’s price goes out from $1.80 to $2.40 before settling at around $2.00 after a few minutes. So a key wicket sees a price change of 20 ticks while a maiden over sees a price change of 10 ticks. Brilliant stuff – long may it continue.
More about the cricket tomorrow – the Super 14 is into its second half and already people are saying the final 4 is more or less sorted and no-one will crack the teams in those positions. Think again people. I’ve only checked the last 4 years, but the top 4 after round 8 (and Round 7 when it was the Super 12) did not provide all 4 semifinalists. 2005 provided the most impressive turnaround, with the Bulls languishing in 8th place (out of 12) with 5 rounds to go and 9 points off the pace – they ended up 3rd after the round-robin (swapping places with the Highlanders who were 3rd but ended up 8th).
And where do I get such information? – a plug for one of the better websites I have found, an expat Brit living in NZ has a superb website for test rugby and Super 14 results – go to http://www.lassen.co.nz/pickandgo.php
While the Bulls are possibly the most vulnerable, don’t discount the Sharks heading south faster than a migrating gannet – I haven’t seen their game from the weekend (too busy watching South Africa lose to Australia in another sport), but the reports I’ve seen suggest they didn’t handle at all being behind on the scoreboard for once. If their road trip gets off to a rocky start in Perth at the weekend, the remainder of their season will be a tricky test of their composure and confidence.
The Super 14 next weekend has probably the best lot of games from a punting point of view for a while; it will be interesting to see the prices the TAB puts out for the Force/Sharks, Hurricanes/Bulls, and Lions/Brumbies in particular. Even the Highlanders/Cheetahs and Blues/Chiefs might provide some opportunities – the only “dud” game probably being the Tahs v Crusaders. A week where I'm preparing early as I'm half expecting "false" prices to come out.
One thing I do expect is more upsets – so far this year only 30 favourites at the tote have won (out of 52 games) and if it wasn’t for a late Stephen Donald penalty we would have had two teams winning coming off 30-point thrashings the week before. One of the main things to bear in mind with the Super 14 is there are some teams whose performance is inconsistent from week to week – frustrating for fans but a potential goldmine for punters.
Labels: post mortems
posted by Rob Crawford at 12:14 PM
2 Comments:
Interesting re the fluctuations on the micro-events. I can understand the Tendulkar impact, but hitting a boundary???
What about the odds for the tournament itself? How does the market handle a variation in something like Lou’s injury?
Leg Break
Surprisingly the winners market hasn't reacted much to the news of Vincent's injury. Possibly because unless you are a close follower of the NZ team you would tend to underestimate his recent contribbution to the side.
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