Ashes Round 2

AUS ($1.53) v ENGLAND ($9) v DRAW ($4.2)

Despite the thrashing handed out in the first test, Australia start at longer odds - possibly due to the reputation of the Adelaide pitch, the recovery by England in their second innings earlier this week, and also the doubt surrounding McGrath and whether he will play.

First, let's get this three-horse race down to two. Can England win? No, or at least they don't have the 11% chance the prices suggest. The only possible way I can see England winning is by posting a huge score batting first, and a combination of the runs pressure and the pace bowlers behind Flintoff miraculously finding some form - and Panesar playing - seeing Australia falter. Is that an 11% chance. No way in hell.

So it's Australia v the draw. Adelaide has a reputation as one of the flatter tracks in the lucky country with Australia scoring at least 400 in their first innings every test there this decade. Opposition teams also don't mind the track - taking out NZ's paltry effort of 251 in 2004 - scores range from England's 342 on their last visit to India's 523 in the only test Oz have lost there in recent times.

So it's full of runs, right? Well not necessarily - domestic cricket at the Adelaide Oval this year hasn't produced a mountain of runs and even in England's warm-up game earlier this month pacemen (from both sides) were finding success at the top of the order.

Throw in the fact that there is very little chance of weather interruptions, and test draws involving Australia where there are 450 overs available for play are about as common as an All Black defeat, and it all points to one thing - another Australian win.

It's not rocket science. But the problems that McGrath has with his heel throws a spanner in the works. There is no doubt in my mind the last Ashes turned when McGrath turned his ankle. McGrath out, or operating at less than 100%, does make Australia's job more difficult.

So with that little caveat, lump on the Aussies. $1.53 for a team whose home record this decade reads 28 wins, 2 losses and 4 draws is just a little big. Or, if you're worried about McGrath not playing and the draw, lay England - yes, even at $9. If England can take 20 wickets AND their batsmen outscore the Aussies, I'll be looking for a real job.

Of Arrogance and Discipline

Rugbyman asked me a couple of things in comment the other day - poor boy, he doesn't know me well enough not to ask my opinion on anything because I don't need a second invitation to spew forth a lot of crap about stuff I know fuck all about.

Q1: Are you worried about the All Black's (lack of) discipline and fear this could hurt them come World Cup time when they may be against opposition who are proficient in retaining possession and a lot closer to them on the scoreboard?

No. Exhibit 1 - first Tri Nations game against Australia this year. Same defensive effort with a 13-9 scoreline. Actually, I have a theory about the ABs and discipline. Over the years, AB teams never seem to end up with the lion's share of possession in meaningful games. Maybe it's the way we're brought up to play the game, I don't know. But it should be fairly obvious that the team without the majority share of possession will end up being penalised more - because they are trying to get the ball as opposed to keeping it.

According to the match stats I saw, the All Blacks had just 40% possession against Wales. So it doesn't surprise me the ABs were penalised more. I'm sure in the first half of the Australia v Ireland game the Aussies got pinged as well but it's not an issue because they lost.

So it's not a "lack of discipline" problem, it's a "lack of possession" problem. What the other teams in world rugby should worry about is the improvement in ABs will come from "winning possession" (or more correctly, not losing it e.g. at lineout time) and if we have 50%, 60% possession we will be penalised a lot less. And the scary thing is, if we can win a game against a decent side 45-10 with only 40% of the pill, what will happen when we have 50%, or 60%?

Q2: The haka debacle at the weekend.

Sad. If there's one blot on the month of champagne rugby I've witnessed, it's the suggestion of arrogance that may be seeping into the All Black culture.

Anton Oliver calls the English fans "ignorant and arrogant". Graham Henry admonishes the English fans for singing during the Haka. Now the All Blacks pack a sad because they can't do the Haka when they want to.

Not a good look. To be fair, the Welsh RU are just as culpable for the mess in the weekend and the episode is one I witness daily whenever my stepson and stepdaughter are within 5 feet of each other. I wasn't going to comment on it, but watching grown adults behave like kids in the sandpit is, well, sad - no other word springs to mind.

Retraction

A couple of days ago, I mused that I find it hard to believe Pakistani's doctor cricket pitches. Well fuck me, half an hour into the third test against the Windies there's a shot of the groundsman with smoke coming out of his ears and the commentator gladly telling us he's not a happy chappy because he was instructed by the Pakistani team management to take all the grass off the pitch.

So I apologise. I'm sorry. It is now clear that the Pakistani's doctor their pitches and when their captain says in the media "it's not true that I ask curators to make flat pitches" (Cricinfo Nov 26) we can call him a lying cheating scumbag. Or perhaps he has a better grasp of the English language than we give him credit for - to be fair, it's probably not him asking for flat pitches to protect a series lead, it's either the coach or manager.

The result is a test match being played on a pitch that wouldn't be fit for 13 year-old schoolboys. Chris Gayle describes it as "the worst test pitch I have ever seen". Not quite (there have been a couple in Hamilton over the years that out-strip this one), but it is a shocker.

Yes, I am bitter - principally because I feared this test could end in a draw and bet accordingly - ironically, the "preparation" to ensure the draw has made a result more likely. A Pakistan win is on the cards - any first-innings lead will be gold, but the draw is still a possibility with Pakistan batting next having no interest in forcing a result by it's end.

Eden Park

To those who know I have an opinion about everything, it might come as a surprise I haven't spewed forth about the great debate happening in this neck of the woods over the last couple of weeks - do we build a Waterfront Stadium or upgrade Eden Park for RWC 2011?

Put the silence down to it should be obvious to a blind man and a dog that the Waterfront proposal was not going to fly - no firm costings, no guarantee of completion - even Aucklanders aren't that stupid. As Phil Gifford wrote in the Sunday Star-Times, we missed our chance when we decided to put fast food outlets at Quay Park a few years ago - hmmm, maybe Aucklanders are stupid after all ...

However, now that the Government are trying to worm out of coughing up some dough because they haven't got their way, let's back up the truck:

1. NZRFU thought it would be a good idea to host RWC 2011.
2. So did the Government, who so enthusiastically supported the idea that none other than our sports-hating Prime Minister hopped over to Dublin come crunch time.
3. The IRB have a requirement that the final of RWC is played in a 60,000 seat stadium.
4. New Zealand doesn't have a 60,000 seat stadium.
5. No doubt the bid, prepared by the NZRFU - partly-funded and enthusiastically supported by the NZ Government, made the appropriate assurances that this wouldn't be a problem and come 2011, New Zealand would have said 60,000 seat stadium.

So - NZRFU and Government - sort yout shit out. You made the promises, now deliver. Don't pass the buck to Auckland ratepayers thank you - if you were going to do that, perhaps you should have told us when the bid was made?

This nanny state Government who likes to interfere in every facet of our lives never ceases to amaze me when it comes to wallet-opening time. The GST alone on the construction would account for a sizeable portion of the shortfall - tight bastards. There endeth the rant for the day.

Classic!

While it might upset the PC brigade, Sportsfreak's latest column on the International Braille Chess Championships is very clever. Must be, as it took me half the article before realising it's a stitch-up.

Weekend Wrap

I'm writing this while watching the final rites being applied to the Poms so I might as well start with the cricket. God I hope their first couple of days in this test was an aberration rather than a precursor to the rest of the series, otherwise this could get embarrassing (and be a waste of time from a betting point of view). Haven't had time to reflect fully (oops there goes the last wicket as I type), but here's a few points for English supporters to hang their hats on:

1. The improvement in batting in the second dig - batting 100 overs Day 4/5 is a commendable effort - and they handled Warne OK which is a plus;
2. They're playing "Dad's Army" and they potentially will have issues (e.g. injury) to deal with thanks to the schedule;
3. The pitches for the next 2 tests are at Adelaide and Perth which will not hold any fears for batsmen.
4. England got thrashed in the first test of the last Ashes series and we all know what happened after that, once McGrath stood on a cricket ball.

I can't honestly see England winning a test - unless Flintoff finds some back-up from his bowlers, but I'm not lumping on 5-0 either. My prediction: 3-0, with smaller chances of 4-0 and 3-1.

The All Blacks wound up a fantastic year with another comfortable victory and we now enter a summer of peeking out from the bedcovers wondering whether yet again we've peaked in the wrong year and what will go wrong come World Cup time. Yet again their defence when subjected to long periods without possession was outstanding. If there is any justice in the world the ABs - assuming they do not suffer a major downturn in form - will romp away with RWC but remember, knockout tournaments are not always won by the best side there. We should know that by now. BTW, they're now down to $1.82 to win it!

On the subject, one of my favourite columnists Peter Fitzsimons from the Sydney Morning Herald had this to say last weekend:

Gosh darn it, I want all of you - all of you, hear me? - to find a Kiwi and give him or her a really big hug. Strengthen your friendship! Give them some love! For they are going to really need us. You know what I am talking about. I am talking about how much they are going to need our support next year. See, a year out from every World Cup, they always look unbeatable, only to sadly fall apart, like clockwork, seven minutes into the second half of the semi-final, when either us, the French or the South Africans tear them apart. This, in turn, always causes them such extraordinary national anguish, that it would make a brown dog weep. My fear, however, is that next year, mere "anguish" won't cover it. For never have they looked better and more unbeatable than right now. It means the fall they are going to suffer will be CRIPPLING.

His whole column is worth reading - cricket fans will like the story about Paul Collingwood in the nets - click here.

Getting back to justice in the world - of course we know there is no such thing on the sporting field - the Kiwi league team will attest to that. Two last-minute losses to Australia in successive games - the sort of stuff that would send the Kiwi cricketers to the pyschiatrist's couch for a week - you'd think the powers-that-be would have let us win just one of them?

Highlight of the weekend - Justin Kemp's century for South Africa in the ODI against India last night. SAF were 0-2, 42-4 and 76-6; yet end up scoring 274-7 on the back of his onslaught. Worth staying up half the night for.

PAK v WI 3rd Test

Current Prices (Betfair): Pakistan $2.30-$2.48 West Indies $6.60-$8.60 Draw $2.24-$2.32

(prices are the best available to back and lay - market is illiquid)

Woke up this morning to see the draw had drifted from evens to 2.34 before settling - quite why I don't know and for this series I haven't been able to understand pregame price movements. The only thing I can find is the Cricinfo preview where the correspondent talks up the chances of a result based on previous tests at the venue.

However there is also the comment "and even if the pitch currently appears dry and grassless", which should sound a note of caution to those bullish about the prospects of a result. I'm not in the camp that believes Pakistan have the ability to produce doctored pitches to further their cause, any more or less than other cricketing nations have the ability to do so, and besides they haven't had the time as if they had lost the second test at Multan they would be keen for a result here.

I haven't watched enough (test) cricket from Pakistan to label myself an expert, but the pitch for the current Ashes Test at Brisbane amply illustrates that pitch preparation in areas which suffer from a lack of rainfall is not exactly an easy art. So I'm expecting another flattish deck, but one which may provide that little bit more of assistance to the bowlers to enable a more even contest between bat and ball.

Final tests in cricket test series can be influenced by the current state of play - and is a factor that warrants reasonable attention prior to the toss. Pakistan are 1-up, and while they'll play for a win it's a factor that must be borne in mind for the duration. For those who habitually go against the draw, what you want to see is the team behind in the series batting first - so when they bat in their second innings you know they'll be looking for ways to produce a result (assuming they're not so far behind to make that irreleveant). The opposite can also occur - the team ahead might be quite happy in the later stages for the game to meander to a draw.

Hence I do not usually get involved heavily pregame for final tests in a series. If West Indies are batting first, I'll be heavily against the draw for the duration. If Pakistan are batting first, my strategy will be to back the West Indies or lay Paksitan to safeguard against early wickets and look to go against the draw at a far shorter price than it currently is.

The West Indies have shown enough in this series to be competitive - if there is any greater assistance for bowlers it will help them just as much as the Pakistani attack. To tip a side that has not won a test away from home for more than 6 years might be seen as bonkers, but I think they have the ability to do so. My prices (pretoss) would be: Pak $2.40 WI $4.00 Draw $3.00.

Joke time

No, not the English cricket team (although they do qualify).

This morning's walk in the park for the All Blacks reminds me of a joke my father told me when I was a wee boy (yes, far too many years ago). I've updated the names to make it relevant for today's world:

The All Blacks were nearing the end of a long and arduous season and had one more match to play, against Wales. Quite frankly, a lot of the team were buggered and didn't have the juice to play one more game. So at a team meeting, captain R. McCaw suggested to the team he'd take the Welsh on with a few of the senior players and the rest of the squad could enjoy the afternoon off at the pub.

Understandably, there was not too much dissention at the idea, so McCaw, Carter, Collins, Sivivatu, Jack and Hayman fronted up for the game while the rest of the boys went down the road to get pissed. All went to plan, the ABs were up 21-0 at halftime and while sucking on their oranges, Collins opined that he could take this lot on by himself and the rest of them should bugger off and share in the amber liquid no doubt flowing freely nearby.

Again, the others didn't take much persuasion and off they went, promising to be back 10 minutes before full-time in case Collins was being a tad optimistic.

Well, thanks to the merryment being enjoyed, the other players didn't get back until 10 minutes after full-time and the scoreboard read All Blacks 21 Wales 20.

"Geez Jerry" said McCaw, "You let them get a bit close, didn't you?"

"Couldn't help it" replied Collins. "I got sent off 5 minutes after halftime".

Feeling sorry for yourself?

I read this post on a betting forum this morning and if you ever feel down and out, might be a story to remember - xcuse the spelling, the old geezer who typed this is obviously not great on the keyboard:

Damon Runyon said every one in life is 6/4 against. I surpose with betfair gamblers are only 11/8. I will send your thread to Isacc Burslem a Stoke on Trent, miner.born 1860 died 1902. He also didnt get on with his mother and father. All the family had worked on the land in one shape or form,His Grand Father a Farmer,Father a Grave Diggerand now there only son a minor.why they never liked him I have never asked.His pet joke was that the way the family were going they would one day be in Australia.

With hard work Issacc provided for his family a wife and 5 Kids. that was until he broke his back 1/2 a mile bellow the surface.in a Stoke on Trent Mine.For the next 6 years he and his family nealy starved . only his local church kept the family away from the poor house, although he couldnt dig he found that he could keep the local church tidy and went about the task with gusto, he was no dreamer he knew that like a relay runner his duty in life was to just keep the batton from hitting the ground mattered not a great deal how far he was behind every one else just staying in the race would allow one of his kids a chance to gain a little ground. one day.Every night in his little cottage granted him by the minors federation. he would spend reading any old books or a poster that he could pick up in the Church. to to his eldest daughter Lilly who he refered to as his little LASS.

She was bright and was his pride and joy. All sorts of Books were disgaurded in and arround the church yard, one day he came across a ripped book about the Grand National and how this race had made many a poor man rich and rich men poor. He also noticed a cryptic Quote."Every one is Equal on and under the Turf."He kept this little saying and would repeat to all who would listen."Lass every one is equal on the turf and under the turf.and one day you will be equal."The area of Burslam had become very prosperous during this period making earthenware and a few of his Kids began to work in some form at the local works.but not LASS she was to become a school teacher.

One of the local dignitaries a very wealthy land owner, called Read. must have felt sorry for Isacc because he would help him out financially in exchange for a little extra care for his family plot. three generations in a prominant position. I guess he was making sure also that his standing and that of his family was established with the best kept. graves.in Bursham Church yard.In 1901 Mr Read passed away leaving Issacc in his will a small amount of cash and a lovely Bursham Plate depicting HRH The Prince of Wales. arround the rim was a horse called Ambush 11. the winner.This present held pride of place in the little cottage. What wasnt known to anyone not even LASS was that Issacc had been receiving a little cash from the land owner.who was also a Gambler.and loved to chat about his wins.Issacc had kept a little of these hand outs safe under his bed.

No one will ever know what caused Issacc to do what he did on March 1902.For he had never been a gambler.Wether it was the plate depicting the Grand National or the old saying about all gods creatures being level on and under the turf.we may never know.It may have been his long chats with Mr Read that seemed exiting.Truth is that the day before the big race after kissing his daughter Lass and his wife as they slept. he began the walk from his little home at Burslam to Stoke.And by train to Liverpool.He arrived with planty of time to spare and took in all the sites of the great race. Out of his poacket he took 4 white fivers. and after studing all the Bookmakers he confidantly gave it to Bill Spanch from Stafford. £20 at 20/1 he remembered the Bookmaker calling out £420 if the LASS wins. The Lass was that the clue had he decided by some fate or dream he had had that this years Grand National winner would be Shannon Lass.I doubt we will ever know. was it that a man with no hope of ever reaching any of his goals. had taken one almighty gamble. on a horse that reminded him of his loving daughter.

There is no nead to elaberate on the race itself. with Issacc standing in front of his Bookmaker Shannon Lass won by 3 lenths.It was minites before Issacc pulled himself together but he was still shaking when he saw the amount of punters congragating in front of the Bookmakers joint.Not being the strongest individual with his bad back he found himself being pushed and shoved and still not getting any closer to the front.It was then that he noticed the fighting.WE WANT OUR MONEY came a cryFollowed by YOU ARE A WELCHER what had happened there was scores of people all confronting this Bookmaker the one who had taken Issacs wager.I have no money my staff have robbed me of it all.

Issacc by now was in the front in fact he was holding onto this man. who was being pushed and shoved and beaton.Next to the Bookmaker was a very large man. his face showing signes of many such encounters scars running along both cheeks. in his hand Issacc noticed he had a knife. At that moment there was a great surge with scores of people pushing forward.Issacc fell in a heap on top of the Puglist. It was some time before the scene was cleared as Issacc rose to his feet there remained only one person still down and that was the scare faced villan.He was on his back and an 8 inch blade protruding from his neck.He was dead alright. Bllod everywere most of it on Issacc.

Thats him shouted the Bookmaker pionting.There was already 2 policemen at hand and it wasnt long before Issacc was battened to the ground.The charges and the case was held at Chester Assizes.The verdict GUILTY of MURDER.even LASS wasnt present when he was hung by his kneck until he was dead.his body didnt even get back to the lovely well kept Burshal Church yard.It would take another generation before his grand child Arther Bursham the son of a scool teacher became a Land Owner .he could never have acheived that without Issacc holding firmly onto the family Batton.So dont feel sorry for yourself - it could always be worse.

Slim Pickings

Maybe its the malaise following a drawn cricket test, but anyone else uninspired by this weekend's line-up?

All Blacks v Wales? - even I'm starting to get bored by the ABs winning comfortably.
Ashes cricket test? Dead after one day.
England v SAF? Has potential mainly for it's comic value.

Gawd, I might have to rely on Rig(ged)by League for my fix.

With cricket on, I haven't done much thinking about bets but on the face of it, SAF are $2.50 against the Poms is possibly a little overpriced while the Kiwis in the TriNations final at $4 might be in the same category.

Ashes Preview

Too much cricket going on to be anything but brief ...

Australia will win the first test - probably within 4 days. If you want to know why, go here - it's worth a read.

Hard work

Sometimes cricket tests present such dilemnas as that facing me in the current Pakistan Windies test. While there is plenty of time left for a result, there is also a not insignificant chance the match will peter out into a tame draw. And Murphy's Law can rear it's ugly head - as soon as you take a view as to the match ending in a draw or result, events will conspire against you and leave you with a loss.

Thankfully I am not in too deep - currently sitting on a loss with the draw that through trading I have reduced its cost from $1.78 to $1.48. I will probably ride with this for at least another day, as the current price of $1.50 is (as always) too low. But personally I'm not going in again as I believe the draw is still favourite over a result and the chances of a batting collapse by either side to produce a significant price movement is not great enough to take the risk.

OT: smacking

Fuck this - soon in New Zealand it will be against the law to smack a child. And in return, we have "assurances" from the law's promoter, Green MP Sue Bradford that we "don't believe" parents will be prosecuted for "lightly" or "occasionally" smacking.

Riiiiiiight. Trust the word of a politician. Especially this politician whose past includes a high-profile stint as a protester willing to break the law if she believed her cause was right. Especially a politician who has already been caught lying over the use of statistics from Sweden where they also have a similar law.

Well I have a cause too - to raise a step-son who is far from an angel who "occasionally" needs a smack around the ears because it seems that's the only effective way for him to learn about life values he is going to need, such as respect and tolerance for others (as currently he has none).

I've tried the mature "sit down and talk" approach. I've tried the "angry yelling" approach. And I've tried the "kick up the arse" approach. The third option is by far the most effective, but now it's against the law.

Guess I'll see you in a courtroom real soon - I'm not exaggerating as said step-son replied to me after his first taste of my foot up his backside said "I could go to the cops y'know". Plenty of kids are quick to point out their rights in society without having a clue about their responsibilities to society.

It's a fkg joke, but sadly not funny.

Hopeless v Clueless

I had to laugh when seeing this on the Betfair forum describing the England v South Africa rugby international. Certainly when watching the game for some strange reason I was reminded of the movie "Dumb and Dumber". Certainly the result was fantastic - not only for the fact SAF blew an 8-point lead no doubt allowing more people than myself to profit from the price movements during the game, but also England won, which means their coach Andy Robinson will keep his job and it's one less team the All Blacks will have to worry about come RWC 2007.

One team that should be worrying the boys in black is Ireland. They were ultra-impressive in dispatching Australia last night in horrible conditions, especially in the first half where their ball retention was astounding. No surprise to see on the back of that performance they have shortened from 3.55 to under 3's and equal favouritism for the Six Nations.

However the main story from the weekend comes from horse racing, where someone lost around a quarter of a million pounds on Betfair during one race. How and who is open to speculation, but some poor sod had the misfortune to lay a horse (who happened to be around a 3/1 favourite) for 237 quid at 1000.00 during the first few seconds of the race - and probably laid for a bit more at prices from 4.00 to 5.60 judging by the matched odds information.

Of course the horse duly won, otherwise there would be no story. There is speculation the horse got stuck in the stalls and someone was trying to vacuum up all the money wanting to back the horse, but the more plausible reason is someone made a keying error using one-click trading software, and as I use such a thing I know how easy it could be done, even if you do know what you are doing.

However what I find intriguing is someone had over 250,000 quid in their Betfair account (you can't have credit in these things) and have no limit on their liability on their account. There is a function on Betfiar that limits your liability on any one event to whatever figure you set - it's automatically set at 5,000 quid when you join and you have to e-mail them to get it changed.

Any gambler worth their salt would not have an open-ended liability on their account, precisely for this reason (assuming it was a keying error). A very painful lesson for someone who judging by the amount of money they have to throw around, should know a helluva lot better.

The best story to come out of this was someone who had laid the favourite for 10 quid at 3.00, and put a back up on the horse at 4.00 for 7.50 quid as the race got underway. Yes he got matched at 1000.00, and you can imagine the celebration for this small-stakes punter as the horse crossed the line first and close to 7,500 pounds was about to register in his account.

So while the English and South African rugby teams may have been hopeless and clueless in the weekend, they weren't the only ones.

Cricket Preview

The month of madness starts tomorrow with:

1) Pakistan ($2.92) v West Indies ($10.50) 2nd Test - Draw $1.77

Prices for cricket - especially for subcontinent cricket - are driven by the illegal Mumbai bookmakers. Due to its underground nature, you cannot be sure how large this market is but anecdotal evidence suggests it is significant; after all there are over a billion people in India and it is a cricket-mad country. Quite why so many of them believe draws in cricket tests on the subcontinent are a done deal is one of life's little mysteries that will perhaps never be answered, but praise the lord for their unswerving belief. It puts food and water on my table.

Looking at this game, there are a couple of slightly plausible reasons for why this time the daw backers might get a payday - the weather forecast for one which looked unsettled for the first day, but my latest reading of trillions of weather websites I keep my eye on suggest this unsettled weather may pass before the first ball is delivered.

And, to keep the weather in perspective, "rain" in the Punjab in November usually consists of a few spits that us Anglo-Saxons wouldn't even consider getting the umbrella out for. The average rainfall for Multan (the test venue) in November is 2.1 mm - yes millimetres, about the width of a fingernail for the whole month. Real drought-breaking stuff.

Of course it is not just the aqua that affects cricket tests, light (i.e. the lack of) is always an issue at this time of year but with Multan being a few hundred km south of Lahore it is a reasonable assumption no more than 10 overs a day will be lost, with a small possibility of fog and dew increasing that number.

The second reason for the draw price is the pitch. Despite 4 results from 4 matches at this venue, the pitch has shown to be a typical flat subcontinent wicket and a bowler's graveyard. However the beauty of test cricket is even on the flattest of wickets batsmen can always find ways to get themselves out, as both Pakistan and England showed here last year.

I actually agree with the Mumbai crowd to some extent and think a draw is the more likely result of the three. But to put it in perspective, I priced the draw at Lahore for the first test around the $2.80 mark and here at Multan I'd probably have it around $2.30. Not just because of light and pitch conditions, but one Brian Charles Lara.

For some reason Lara seems motivated on this tour. And watching him scratch himself into form in the first innings at Lahore, to be followed by a superb century in the second - suggests to me he is more than capable of one of his specials. That means 200+, maybe even 300+. One of the main criteria I use to assess the likelihood of a draw is the capability of the supposed weaker team (in this case the West Indies) to bat long periods of time. In Lara, the WI have someone capable of batting three days if he gets first use of the pitch and the only question then is the support he receives at the other end.

So even though the draw is at a ridiculously low price I assess it as less value than the similar price we saw for the first test. You have to go against it at the price, but I've halved my stake from the first test (which admittedly was one of my bigger pregame bets for a while).

So no surprise, lay the draw and cross fingers Pakistan can find a way of getting Lara out cheaply.

2) South Africa ($1.42) v India ($3.30) 1st ODI

India got spanked in a warm-up game and Sehwag has been ruled out with injury, which has seen SAF shorten from around $1.55 to the current price.

This is a dangerous game betting-wise. ODI cricket is a volatile beast and I have a personal rule that once prices go through the $1.50 / $3.00 barrier there cannot be value, no matter who is playing who amongst the main 8 cricketing nations (with the current possible exception of England). Sehwag is no great loss - he is horribly out of form; and India's seamers are not exactly hopeless so while I expect SAF to win I certainly wouldn't touch them at $1.42.

I'd also like to see what the pitch is like - the last ODI here was the game SAF and Australia got 430+ each, while a couple of months after that NZ and SAF had a test match where the ball seamed all over the place. So who knows what the pitch will do, and they have had unsettled weather in Jo'burg recently so I wonder how complete the preparation will have been.

So no bet pregame, and until I see how the pitch plays it's difficult to formulate a strategy for trading in-play, but I have a sneaky feeling the seamers may enjoy their day more than the batsmen will.

Weekend Preview

I love Blogger - typing in hundreds of words and then saving it during an outage, thereby losing it all. So the condensed version of what I just spent the last 30 minutes typing goes something like this:

Tennis - Nadal ($1.65) v Davydenko ($2.52) is first up tonight (midnight NZT) and a game with good in-play trading potential. Breaks of serve and three sets please. I do think Nadal is a little short at $1.65 - note these two have never played each other before. Flag Blake v Robredo; meaningless match.

League - as this IMHO is rigged, expect Australia to win a tight encounter with GB hammering away at the Aussie's goal-line as the final whistle blows. On the off chance that it's not rigged, Australia giving up 16.5 points around evens is the only bet to be had.

Rugby:

No bets on the All Black ($1.16) v France ($8.00) game. I can't back the ABs at $1.16 although I wouldn't blame anyone who did, and the points handicap of around 16 looks about right - I don't expect another 40 point blowout although of course there is the chance it can happen, esp. if the ABs get points early.

Also leaving the Ireland ($1.68) v ($2.68) Australia game alone, although I'll watch it and perhaps tinker in-play. Ireland deserve to be favourites, although it could be reasonably close with sufficient price movements to make a quid or three.

Now, onto games which are bettable:

England ($1.72) v South Africa ($2.56) - was quite keen on this game when the market came out earlier in the week, but then SAF put Butch James at 10 outside Januarie at half (why not give Pienaar a game with his Sharks' teammate?), and Wynand Olivier at 13, who I do not rate (to put it mildly). So without the confidence of a few days ago, I'm having a punt on the Saffers in a game that is IMO more even than the bookies make it.

Italy ($2.74) v Argentina ($1.65) - frustratingly missed the early prices which had Argentina as short as $1.40 - their line-up is weaker than the one that beat England and Italy are showing time and time again they are no easy-beats. Whether they have the potential to score enough points to win is debatable, but at the prices they are worth a small wager.

Scotland ($1.40) v Pacific Islands ($3.70) - the consensus of the experts up in the Horthern Hemisphere suggest the P.I.ers can be backed in both the match odds and with the points handicap (unfortunately the line on Betfair is 7.5; you can get a 9pt with bookies). I'm not so sure - while you would think the P.I.ers will be better for the game they had against a second-string Welsh side last week, playing rugby in 8 degree temperatures (although the forecast does suggest an absence of aqua) is not their forte, even allowing for the fact many of the team is based in the UK. Interesting to see Rupeni Caucaunibuca in the side - I guess if he is anywhere near the form of RWC 2003 where he single-handedly ran through the Scots for Fiji there is hope. A small wager at $3.70 but I won't get carried away.

Cricket ramblings will be up later today/tomorrow.

Lull b4 the storm

Sorry for the quiet week on the blog, but with Cricinfo's calendar telling me I have two days off between this coming Sunday and December 20, it's been a week of odd-jobs such as mowing the lawns and preparation for a hectic betting schedule.

My main sport for betting is cricket, with rugby union/league and tennis being sidelines - so to kick off the month of madness coming up, this weekend sees:

Fri midnight to Sat 4 a.m. : Masters Cup Tennis

Sat 10 p.m.: Rugby League
Sat midnight: Masters Cup Tennis
Sun 3.30 a.m.: England v South Africa rugby

Somehow I don't think I'll survive to watch the All Blacks at 9 a.m. ...

Sun 5.30 p.m.: Pakistan v West Indies cricket
Sun 9 p.m.: South Africa v India cricket (missing the tennis final)
Mon 5 a.m.: Ireland v Australia rugby

My wife bless her soul thinks I have an easy life - lying on the couch in front of the tele and the laptop occasionally clicking the mouse to place a bet - but to be honest weekends like the one coming up really fcuk up your body clock and it takes a few days to recover. Not to mention trying to think straight with sleep deprivation.

Previews on some of these up tomorrow.

Awesome

It's taken 24 hours to get off cloud nine after watching the All Blacks blitz France, the supposed No.2 team in the world, 47-3 in the weekend. It's not the 47 that I look at, it's the 3 scored by the opposition and the defence shown when going through long periods in the second half without the ball. Reminiscent of the defensive display shown in the first Tri-Nations game against Australia when the score was a lot closer.

That the All Blacks can show such tenacity in defense when they could perhaps be forgiven for slacking off due to the bloated scoreline speaks volumes about where their head space is at. While the general public will be wary that we have been down this road before ("peaking between World Cups"), 10 months out there are only two things that can happen that will stop NZ winning the RWC next year:

a) another team showing a marked level of improvement - in this category I'd keep an eye on Australia and Ireland

b) an injury to Dan Carter.

That's it. But the All Blacks are now just over evens in the betting markets to win RWC 2007. That's a crazy, and stupid price - if I had some spare change that I wouldn't mind being tied up for 10 months I'd lay the sh!t out of it as there is not much downside. Given that the possible opponents for the All Blacks at the business end of the tournament are France, Australia and Ireland (who happen to be ranked 2, 3 and soon to be 4 in the world), I fail to see how the ABs will start on average $1.27 each game, which is what the winner's price is suggesting.

Weekend Preview

No shortage of sport this weekend - no less than six rugby internationals (although some are second-class) and another match in the League TriNations. More about them later - most of my week has been spent preparing for an avalanche of cricket which sees 11 tests and 12 ODI's between now and the end of the year.

Tomorrow sees the first test between Pakistan ($3.15) and the West Indies ($7.80), with the current draw price an unbelievable $1.79. There are two major factors for why the draw is odds on before a ball has been bowled: (a) the perception of a flat track at Lahore, and (b) on paper both sides have stronger batting line-ups than bowlers. Both I believe are not neccesarily valid and I think this is one of the strangest betting prices I have seen in a long time.

There is a common misconception that cricket tests in Pakistan (and India) are more likely to end in draws. Certainly, high-scoring runfests occur from time to time and the last test at Lahore in January produced 679/7d v 410/1 in a rain-interrupted match. But that's the key - unseasonably cold and overcast weather during (and just as importantly prior to) this game produced a lifeless pitch and a runfest. Fast forward to this month and Lahore has been experiencing its usual 30 deg+ days of clear sunshine, with more forecast for the duration of the test. Out of 25 test matches in Pakistan so far this decade only 6 have been draws and while all 6 draws were in the Punjab (4 in Faisalabad and 2 in Lahore), there have been enough results at Lahore to suggest a reasonable pitch will be prepared - certainly there are no weather excuses this time and if anything, thanks to the weather the pitch will be more advanced, which brings me onto the second point:

Pakistan have known for three weeks they will be without their two main strike bowlers for this series. That means their main bowling weapon will be the legspinner Danish Kaneria, and just as importantly, their opposition has no main spinning threat. Read between the lines. Yes, there is a chance the bat will dominate the ball in this series but I believe there is just as much chance spinner-friendly wickets will see Pakistan romp away with the first test, and the series.

$1.79 for the draw? Should be closer to $2.80 - if I'm wrong so be it, but 400+ overs of test cricket (there may be some play lost to bad light and a small possibility of fog/dew) usually produces a result, no matter what the pitch is like.

From a betting point of view, most of the oval ball code stuff this weekend is unappealing:

League - NZ ($1.62) v GB ($2.72 - draw $24): gawd knows what will happen here - my heart and head says the Kiwis but not at that price thank you.

Rugby - NZ ($1.50) v France ($3.30 - draw $32): in two minds here; a comfortable win for the ABs or a French surprise they can deliver every so often? If France are going to win one of these 2 games, it will be the first one so maybe a small wager on the French at the odds, but nothing major and certainly not with the handicap (+6.5) - if the ABs win, they could win big.

Rugby - Ireland ($1.57) v South Africa ($2.90 - draw $32): Disappointed at the Irish price - expect them to beat a weakened SAF line-up but the odds are too short.

Of the other games, a second-string Welsh side take on the Pacific Islanders which could be entertaining to watch and I'm toying with the idea of going against the Welsh at $1.30 with not much expectation of a return, or backing the PI's with the 10.5 point handicap.

Have a good weekend.

Typical

The year I don't bet on the Cup is a year I would've made some dosh - the only reason I preferred Pop Rock over Delta Blues was weight, and it wasn't hard to put the third placegetter into multiples. Thankfully the trifecta only paid $1100 so it's not a huge payday missed.

Interestingly, the Japanese trainer who quinella'd the race also won the Hong Kong International Mile (the same race Sunline won) last year with Hat Trick and has also won Group 1 races in USA and Dubai. Pretty impressive resume.

Remembering Precious

No, not "Lord of the Rings" people - I guess you have to be my age (or older) to remember a midget weightlifter who captured the hearts of NZers during the 1974 Commonwealth Games in Christchurch.

An insight into his story can be found here - heart-warming to see the country of his birth is recognising his sporting achievements while he's still around to be so honoured, and I hope the film is made as it is a story that deserves to be told.

Cup Pick

I'm not betting on the Melbourne Cup this year. So no doubt the horse I think will win will in fact do so. POP ROCK. Go on, put a lazy dollar on it.

Dissing da Haka

I'm getting a bit bored with this - if the English crowd want to sing "Sweet Low ... " and if Willie Mason wants to mouth off, let them and ignore them. Why should we EXPECT and/or DEMAND the RESPECT of others?

For mine, the greatest disrespect shown to our cultural war dance was when our skinny white swimmers attempted a version at the Melbourne Commonwealth Games while the Scottish winner of the race was being (or about to be) bagpiped by a fellow countryman in the crowd. Respect is a two-way street and is earned, not asked for.

Eloquence League style

Thanks to the Sydney Morning Herald we now know what led to Willie Mason throwing a punch that resulted in Stuart Fielden's broken nose and a one match ban for big Willie:

"As soon as I tackled him, he said, 'Come on, you Aussie c---', and I said, 'F--- you, you Pommy f---wit'. He said, 'Let's go, let's go', and I said, 'When are we going to go?' Then as soon as I was at first marker he advanced and he said, 'I'll belt you, you Aussie twat'. When he started advancing towards me I thought he was going to hit me," Mason said.

Anyone else impressed by the abundance of intelligent wit shown?

Weekend wrap

The Herald are at it again. Two weeks after re-hashing the identity of 1980's band Crowded House, we are told today there is "extra spice to the annual New Zealand challenge" in tomorrow's Melbourne Cup with the late entry of NZ-bred Efficient, an impressive winner of the Victorian Derby on Saturday.

You see, Efficient is 25% owned by New Zealanders, born here, and trained by a New Zealander (even though he has been living in Sydney for gawd knows how long). And because of these tenuous connections, we are supposed to get excited.

Parlease. Efficient is as Kiwi as Willie Mason is, and we don't seem to be in that much of a rush to claim him as one of our own at the moment, do we? Anyway, Efficient won't win the Cup (mind you, I said that about Makybe Diva last year) and even if it does, it will probably ruin the horse for the rest of its racing career - putting a yet to be fully developed 3 y.o. into a 2 mile race is IMO not the smartest idea in the world. Then again, I've never respected the intelligence of people who are prepared to throw mega-bucks at owning horse flesh - one of the most negative EV games on the planet.

Yes, I did get out of the wrong side of bed this afternoon. I don't mind losing on the punt, but losing when you have watched sporting contests that promised so much and delivered so little gets me cranky.

First the League. Either the GB team has an extraordinary ability to pull their opposition down to their mediocre level or it's rigged. I'm going with the latter (see the blog archives after the first State of Origin for more proof), especially after NZRL Chairman Sel Bennett said when closing the door behind him "any publicity is good publicity". Right Sel, go and rob a bank - that will get you on the front page of Section 1, not just the sports pages.

Anyone remember last year's Tri Nations? After two thrashings by Australia and NZ, GB needed a miracle to even be in the hunt for qualifying for the final on points differential and whaddya know, after 42-26 and 20-6 losses SOMEHOW managed to beat the Kiwis 38-12 and save the last qualifying game from being a meaningless farce.

So NZ are a lock to beat the Brits this weekend and it will all come down to the final game and points differential to see who will face Australia in the final. If anyone has the script for that final qualifying game, please share the secret as it would be nice to make some money off it.

Second, the All Blacks - England test. I knew my bets were in trouble the minute I heard England might try and play an attacking game. England trying to play attacking rugby is about as useful as me trying to run a marathon - an admirable concept, but one doomed for failure. I don't think the ABs were all that flash either and I fear they could be in for a thorough examination in the next 2 weeks against France; anyone who has taken odds on they'll win all 4 internationals are either very brave or very foolish (possibly both).

Finally, the Cricket. Brian Lara blames "Stage Fright" - fer feck's sake this is international sport not an amateur theatre production. At least Fleming had the nous to say after the semi-final loss it's the skill factor and not some mamby-pamby pyschological crap when looking for reasons for the loss. Gawd help the rest of the cricket world in the next few months through to and after the World Cup - this Aussie side was starting to show signs of cracks and vulnerability and the last thing they needed was a dose of self-belief and confidence (not that Australians need that in huge quantities anyway).

Time to go and kick the cat.

Weekend Preview

Two rugby internationals, a league and cricket game to dabble in ... just another normal weekend. Let's start with what's really important (prices on Betfair):

ALL BLACKS ($1.17) v ENGLAND ($8.00) (DRAW $42)

The corresponding game last year saw the ABs start shorter and squeak out a 4-point win. As with last year, the expectation is on the ABs to chalk up a comfortable win and as with last year, I'll be surprised if the ABs do run up the expected cricket score. Even at the prices, I don't advocate plonking any money on England but the handicap on Betfair is 13.5 points (with some bookies you can get 15) and I might have a small punt on England @ $2.10 to keep the margin within 2 converted tries.

WALES ($2.04) v AUSTRALIA ($2.06) (DRAW $28)

To say that I'm p!ssed off at missing the early betting on this match would be an understatement - when the early bookies put Australia out at $1.67 favourites I put up a lay of Oz on Betfair at $1.70 and no takers - then their second-stringers had to go and lose to a Welsh regional side and now look at the prices ...

Wales narrowly won the corresponding match last year and with a better team (especially in the backs) all the money is coming in for the Red Devils - but I feel the prices have reached the mark where it's a no bet. Australia, even with their reshuffled backline, are not hopeless and I still feel it's a match which can go either way, so I'm not betting.

LEAGUE - GREAT BRITAIN ($10) v AUSTRALIA ($1.12) (DRAW $75)

This could get ugly. Sorry, this will get ugly. Australia are odds against at the handicap of 18.5 and $5+ giving up 28.5 points. Both are value bets IMO and where my interest will lie.

CRICKET - AUSTRALIA ($1.44) v WEST INDIES ($3.20)

Personally I'm surprised the Aussies are above $1.40 for the final - both teams have their batsmen in form but I think the Aussie bowling is a class above. BUT (and that is a big BUT), we're back at Mumbai for the final and gawd knows what the pitch is going to do. They've had 2 weeks or so to do something about it and that is a lifetime for pitch preparation. Because of the questionmarks surrounding the pitch, I'm not getting involved pregame, but so long as it's not a low slow turner, I expect the Aussies to win.

Two cracking bets

There is no way South Africa should be $1.60 to beat West Indies in tonight's second semi-final, and looking ahead I am equally surprised Australia is $1.70 to beat Wales in Saturday's rugby international.

Both games in my opinion are close to 50/50. Fill yer boots. Certainly the cricket match tonight has the potential to be a trading dream. SAF's batting while good on paper hasn't really fired in this tournament while most of the WI's top order has at least one decent score. The SAF seam attack will I suspect be negated somewhat by the Jaipur pitch and WI have Gayle, Samuels and perhaps Sarwan in the slow bowling department compared to Robin Petersen (who?) for SAF. I won't be surprised at a Windies win but more to the point I'd settle for a game with some twists and turns and a result in doubt right down to the wire.

NZ v AUS

Anyone with even half a passing interest in tonight's game would have heard by now the statistic that out of the 17 matches these two sides have played over the last 5 years, New Zealand has won .... errr, two of them. That alone should have the lemmings jumping on the baggy greens and in the 5 hours I've been awake this morning they have indeed shortened from $1.37 to $1.35 and will probably continue to do so.

Statistics are wonderful things, but reliance on them for sports betting purposes ain't one of them. Yes Aussie have won 15 of the last 17, but who won the last one (NZ) is the invariable reply. Yet McGrath and Lee weren't playing that one comes the counter-reply. Neither was Bond comes the counter-counter reply. You get the drift.

The significant contributor to how a cricket game pans out, apart from the players playing it, is the pitch. And so far we have seen at Mohali a pitch with reasonable pace and bounce, with one game ruined by a greentop. Despite putting up some crystal ball-gazing on this blog from time to time, quite often I do not form a cast-iron view on an upcoming game of cricket until I have seen the pitch and the first few overs.

With this tournament and the number of games already played, you can make a fair assumption about pitch characteristics, but as the Pakistan-South Africa game highlighted, always be prepared to change your thinking should evidence be presented that suggests you should do so.

Having said all of that, if the Mohali pitch is similar to the one Australia played India on, I fear a similar result and the current price for an Australian win of $1.35 is not unreasonable, but personally I'd hesitate to back it.

Two key things shape up in my mind as to whether NZ can be competitive or even win:

1. NZ's top order batting. Styris out is a blow, being one of three NZ batsmen who can anchor an innings (Fleming and Astle being the others) and while you'd be sent to the loony bin suggesting one of Vincent, Marshall and Fulton can take up the slack, they are not quite in the no-hopers category. Vincent can look horribly out of form and then produce a quick half-century out of nowhere, Marshall has a reasonable record against the Aussies while Fulton hasn't been given a chance by the umpires in this tourney. Don't completely write them off. For NZ to have a chance, our capable middle-order cannot be spending 15-20 overs resurrecting an early collapse.

2. NZ's strike bowling. I'm not looking at Bond here, although any initial blast that gets rid of a few at the top will be welcomed with open arms. Unfortunately he's not in the form to take 6-23 like he did last time he bowled at Australia. More at Mills - whose accuracy and early doors bowling is under-rated, and (holding breath in great hope) Franklin if he doesn't get carted around the paddock when he comes on. Oram will enjoy the bounce in the pitch just as much as the Aussie change bowlers.

So whoever bats first, the first 10-15 overs will set the scene for either a great game of cricket or a one-sided thrashing. An Aussie win is the probable outcome, but if NZ can prise out a couple of Aussies early, or if we can get through the first 15 only 2 down, game on!

P.S. If you want an interesting statistic, how about the fact that the three teams left in this tournament with Australia have one thing in common: they all beat Australia the last time they played them :-)