Cricket Preview

The month of madness starts tomorrow with:

1) Pakistan ($2.92) v West Indies ($10.50) 2nd Test - Draw $1.77

Prices for cricket - especially for subcontinent cricket - are driven by the illegal Mumbai bookmakers. Due to its underground nature, you cannot be sure how large this market is but anecdotal evidence suggests it is significant; after all there are over a billion people in India and it is a cricket-mad country. Quite why so many of them believe draws in cricket tests on the subcontinent are a done deal is one of life's little mysteries that will perhaps never be answered, but praise the lord for their unswerving belief. It puts food and water on my table.

Looking at this game, there are a couple of slightly plausible reasons for why this time the daw backers might get a payday - the weather forecast for one which looked unsettled for the first day, but my latest reading of trillions of weather websites I keep my eye on suggest this unsettled weather may pass before the first ball is delivered.

And, to keep the weather in perspective, "rain" in the Punjab in November usually consists of a few spits that us Anglo-Saxons wouldn't even consider getting the umbrella out for. The average rainfall for Multan (the test venue) in November is 2.1 mm - yes millimetres, about the width of a fingernail for the whole month. Real drought-breaking stuff.

Of course it is not just the aqua that affects cricket tests, light (i.e. the lack of) is always an issue at this time of year but with Multan being a few hundred km south of Lahore it is a reasonable assumption no more than 10 overs a day will be lost, with a small possibility of fog and dew increasing that number.

The second reason for the draw price is the pitch. Despite 4 results from 4 matches at this venue, the pitch has shown to be a typical flat subcontinent wicket and a bowler's graveyard. However the beauty of test cricket is even on the flattest of wickets batsmen can always find ways to get themselves out, as both Pakistan and England showed here last year.

I actually agree with the Mumbai crowd to some extent and think a draw is the more likely result of the three. But to put it in perspective, I priced the draw at Lahore for the first test around the $2.80 mark and here at Multan I'd probably have it around $2.30. Not just because of light and pitch conditions, but one Brian Charles Lara.

For some reason Lara seems motivated on this tour. And watching him scratch himself into form in the first innings at Lahore, to be followed by a superb century in the second - suggests to me he is more than capable of one of his specials. That means 200+, maybe even 300+. One of the main criteria I use to assess the likelihood of a draw is the capability of the supposed weaker team (in this case the West Indies) to bat long periods of time. In Lara, the WI have someone capable of batting three days if he gets first use of the pitch and the only question then is the support he receives at the other end.

So even though the draw is at a ridiculously low price I assess it as less value than the similar price we saw for the first test. You have to go against it at the price, but I've halved my stake from the first test (which admittedly was one of my bigger pregame bets for a while).

So no surprise, lay the draw and cross fingers Pakistan can find a way of getting Lara out cheaply.

2) South Africa ($1.42) v India ($3.30) 1st ODI

India got spanked in a warm-up game and Sehwag has been ruled out with injury, which has seen SAF shorten from around $1.55 to the current price.

This is a dangerous game betting-wise. ODI cricket is a volatile beast and I have a personal rule that once prices go through the $1.50 / $3.00 barrier there cannot be value, no matter who is playing who amongst the main 8 cricketing nations (with the current possible exception of England). Sehwag is no great loss - he is horribly out of form; and India's seamers are not exactly hopeless so while I expect SAF to win I certainly wouldn't touch them at $1.42.

I'd also like to see what the pitch is like - the last ODI here was the game SAF and Australia got 430+ each, while a couple of months after that NZ and SAF had a test match where the ball seamed all over the place. So who knows what the pitch will do, and they have had unsettled weather in Jo'burg recently so I wonder how complete the preparation will have been.

So no bet pregame, and until I see how the pitch plays it's difficult to formulate a strategy for trading in-play, but I have a sneaky feeling the seamers may enjoy their day more than the batsmen will.