Weekend Preview
I love Blogger - typing in hundreds of words and then saving it during an outage, thereby losing it all. So the condensed version of what I just spent the last 30 minutes typing goes something like this:
Tennis - Nadal ($1.65) v Davydenko ($2.52) is first up tonight (midnight NZT) and a game with good in-play trading potential. Breaks of serve and three sets please. I do think Nadal is a little short at $1.65 - note these two have never played each other before. Flag Blake v Robredo; meaningless match.
League - as this IMHO is rigged, expect Australia to win a tight encounter with GB hammering away at the Aussie's goal-line as the final whistle blows. On the off chance that it's not rigged, Australia giving up 16.5 points around evens is the only bet to be had.
Rugby:
No bets on the All Black ($1.16) v France ($8.00) game. I can't back the ABs at $1.16 although I wouldn't blame anyone who did, and the points handicap of around 16 looks about right - I don't expect another 40 point blowout although of course there is the chance it can happen, esp. if the ABs get points early.
Also leaving the Ireland ($1.68) v ($2.68) Australia game alone, although I'll watch it and perhaps tinker in-play. Ireland deserve to be favourites, although it could be reasonably close with sufficient price movements to make a quid or three.
Now, onto games which are bettable:
England ($1.72) v South Africa ($2.56) - was quite keen on this game when the market came out earlier in the week, but then SAF put Butch James at 10 outside Januarie at half (why not give Pienaar a game with his Sharks' teammate?), and Wynand Olivier at 13, who I do not rate (to put it mildly). So without the confidence of a few days ago, I'm having a punt on the Saffers in a game that is IMO more even than the bookies make it.
Italy ($2.74) v Argentina ($1.65) - frustratingly missed the early prices which had Argentina as short as $1.40 - their line-up is weaker than the one that beat England and Italy are showing time and time again they are no easy-beats. Whether they have the potential to score enough points to win is debatable, but at the prices they are worth a small wager.
Scotland ($1.40) v Pacific Islands ($3.70) - the consensus of the experts up in the Horthern Hemisphere suggest the P.I.ers can be backed in both the match odds and with the points handicap (unfortunately the line on Betfair is 7.5; you can get a 9pt with bookies). I'm not so sure - while you would think the P.I.ers will be better for the game they had against a second-string Welsh side last week, playing rugby in 8 degree temperatures (although the forecast does suggest an absence of aqua) is not their forte, even allowing for the fact many of the team is based in the UK. Interesting to see Rupeni Caucaunibuca in the side - I guess if he is anywhere near the form of RWC 2003 where he single-handedly ran through the Scots for Fiji there is hope. A small wager at $3.70 but I won't get carried away.
Cricket ramblings will be up later today/tomorrow.
Tennis - Nadal ($1.65) v Davydenko ($2.52) is first up tonight (midnight NZT) and a game with good in-play trading potential. Breaks of serve and three sets please. I do think Nadal is a little short at $1.65 - note these two have never played each other before. Flag Blake v Robredo; meaningless match.
League - as this IMHO is rigged, expect Australia to win a tight encounter with GB hammering away at the Aussie's goal-line as the final whistle blows. On the off chance that it's not rigged, Australia giving up 16.5 points around evens is the only bet to be had.
Rugby:
No bets on the All Black ($1.16) v France ($8.00) game. I can't back the ABs at $1.16 although I wouldn't blame anyone who did, and the points handicap of around 16 looks about right - I don't expect another 40 point blowout although of course there is the chance it can happen, esp. if the ABs get points early.
Also leaving the Ireland ($1.68) v ($2.68) Australia game alone, although I'll watch it and perhaps tinker in-play. Ireland deserve to be favourites, although it could be reasonably close with sufficient price movements to make a quid or three.
Now, onto games which are bettable:
England ($1.72) v South Africa ($2.56) - was quite keen on this game when the market came out earlier in the week, but then SAF put Butch James at 10 outside Januarie at half (why not give Pienaar a game with his Sharks' teammate?), and Wynand Olivier at 13, who I do not rate (to put it mildly). So without the confidence of a few days ago, I'm having a punt on the Saffers in a game that is IMO more even than the bookies make it.
Italy ($2.74) v Argentina ($1.65) - frustratingly missed the early prices which had Argentina as short as $1.40 - their line-up is weaker than the one that beat England and Italy are showing time and time again they are no easy-beats. Whether they have the potential to score enough points to win is debatable, but at the prices they are worth a small wager.
Scotland ($1.40) v Pacific Islands ($3.70) - the consensus of the experts up in the Horthern Hemisphere suggest the P.I.ers can be backed in both the match odds and with the points handicap (unfortunately the line on Betfair is 7.5; you can get a 9pt with bookies). I'm not so sure - while you would think the P.I.ers will be better for the game they had against a second-string Welsh side last week, playing rugby in 8 degree temperatures (although the forecast does suggest an absence of aqua) is not their forte, even allowing for the fact many of the team is based in the UK. Interesting to see Rupeni Caucaunibuca in the side - I guess if he is anywhere near the form of RWC 2003 where he single-handedly ran through the Scots for Fiji there is hope. A small wager at $3.70 but I won't get carried away.
Cricket ramblings will be up later today/tomorrow.
Labels: previews
posted by Rob Crawford at 9:56 AM
1 Comments:
Hi Rob,
I like your blog. You may find mine interesting, I am a full time sports trader and try to show others new strategies to make money on sport. Good Luck
Ray http://thesportstrader.lastminuteliving.com/
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