Weekend Preview
No shortage of sport this weekend - no less than six rugby internationals (although some are second-class) and another match in the League TriNations. More about them later - most of my week has been spent preparing for an avalanche of cricket which sees 11 tests and 12 ODI's between now and the end of the year.
Tomorrow sees the first test between Pakistan ($3.15) and the West Indies ($7.80), with the current draw price an unbelievable $1.79. There are two major factors for why the draw is odds on before a ball has been bowled: (a) the perception of a flat track at Lahore, and (b) on paper both sides have stronger batting line-ups than bowlers. Both I believe are not neccesarily valid and I think this is one of the strangest betting prices I have seen in a long time.
There is a common misconception that cricket tests in Pakistan (and India) are more likely to end in draws. Certainly, high-scoring runfests occur from time to time and the last test at Lahore in January produced 679/7d v 410/1 in a rain-interrupted match. But that's the key - unseasonably cold and overcast weather during (and just as importantly prior to) this game produced a lifeless pitch and a runfest. Fast forward to this month and Lahore has been experiencing its usual 30 deg+ days of clear sunshine, with more forecast for the duration of the test. Out of 25 test matches in Pakistan so far this decade only 6 have been draws and while all 6 draws were in the Punjab (4 in Faisalabad and 2 in Lahore), there have been enough results at Lahore to suggest a reasonable pitch will be prepared - certainly there are no weather excuses this time and if anything, thanks to the weather the pitch will be more advanced, which brings me onto the second point:
Pakistan have known for three weeks they will be without their two main strike bowlers for this series. That means their main bowling weapon will be the legspinner Danish Kaneria, and just as importantly, their opposition has no main spinning threat. Read between the lines. Yes, there is a chance the bat will dominate the ball in this series but I believe there is just as much chance spinner-friendly wickets will see Pakistan romp away with the first test, and the series.
$1.79 for the draw? Should be closer to $2.80 - if I'm wrong so be it, but 400+ overs of test cricket (there may be some play lost to bad light and a small possibility of fog/dew) usually produces a result, no matter what the pitch is like.
From a betting point of view, most of the oval ball code stuff this weekend is unappealing:
League - NZ ($1.62) v GB ($2.72 - draw $24): gawd knows what will happen here - my heart and head says the Kiwis but not at that price thank you.
Rugby - NZ ($1.50) v France ($3.30 - draw $32): in two minds here; a comfortable win for the ABs or a French surprise they can deliver every so often? If France are going to win one of these 2 games, it will be the first one so maybe a small wager on the French at the odds, but nothing major and certainly not with the handicap (+6.5) - if the ABs win, they could win big.
Rugby - Ireland ($1.57) v South Africa ($2.90 - draw $32): Disappointed at the Irish price - expect them to beat a weakened SAF line-up but the odds are too short.
Of the other games, a second-string Welsh side take on the Pacific Islanders which could be entertaining to watch and I'm toying with the idea of going against the Welsh at $1.30 with not much expectation of a return, or backing the PI's with the 10.5 point handicap.
Have a good weekend.
Tomorrow sees the first test between Pakistan ($3.15) and the West Indies ($7.80), with the current draw price an unbelievable $1.79. There are two major factors for why the draw is odds on before a ball has been bowled: (a) the perception of a flat track at Lahore, and (b) on paper both sides have stronger batting line-ups than bowlers. Both I believe are not neccesarily valid and I think this is one of the strangest betting prices I have seen in a long time.
There is a common misconception that cricket tests in Pakistan (and India) are more likely to end in draws. Certainly, high-scoring runfests occur from time to time and the last test at Lahore in January produced 679/7d v 410/1 in a rain-interrupted match. But that's the key - unseasonably cold and overcast weather during (and just as importantly prior to) this game produced a lifeless pitch and a runfest. Fast forward to this month and Lahore has been experiencing its usual 30 deg+ days of clear sunshine, with more forecast for the duration of the test. Out of 25 test matches in Pakistan so far this decade only 6 have been draws and while all 6 draws were in the Punjab (4 in Faisalabad and 2 in Lahore), there have been enough results at Lahore to suggest a reasonable pitch will be prepared - certainly there are no weather excuses this time and if anything, thanks to the weather the pitch will be more advanced, which brings me onto the second point:
Pakistan have known for three weeks they will be without their two main strike bowlers for this series. That means their main bowling weapon will be the legspinner Danish Kaneria, and just as importantly, their opposition has no main spinning threat. Read between the lines. Yes, there is a chance the bat will dominate the ball in this series but I believe there is just as much chance spinner-friendly wickets will see Pakistan romp away with the first test, and the series.
$1.79 for the draw? Should be closer to $2.80 - if I'm wrong so be it, but 400+ overs of test cricket (there may be some play lost to bad light and a small possibility of fog/dew) usually produces a result, no matter what the pitch is like.
From a betting point of view, most of the oval ball code stuff this weekend is unappealing:
League - NZ ($1.62) v GB ($2.72 - draw $24): gawd knows what will happen here - my heart and head says the Kiwis but not at that price thank you.
Rugby - NZ ($1.50) v France ($3.30 - draw $32): in two minds here; a comfortable win for the ABs or a French surprise they can deliver every so often? If France are going to win one of these 2 games, it will be the first one so maybe a small wager on the French at the odds, but nothing major and certainly not with the handicap (+6.5) - if the ABs win, they could win big.
Rugby - Ireland ($1.57) v South Africa ($2.90 - draw $32): Disappointed at the Irish price - expect them to beat a weakened SAF line-up but the odds are too short.
Of the other games, a second-string Welsh side take on the Pacific Islanders which could be entertaining to watch and I'm toying with the idea of going against the Welsh at $1.30 with not much expectation of a return, or backing the PI's with the 10.5 point handicap.
Have a good weekend.
Labels: previews
posted by Rob Crawford at 11:19 AM
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