PAK v WI 3rd Test
Current Prices (Betfair): Pakistan $2.30-$2.48 West Indies $6.60-$8.60 Draw $2.24-$2.32
(prices are the best available to back and lay - market is illiquid)
Woke up this morning to see the draw had drifted from evens to 2.34 before settling - quite why I don't know and for this series I haven't been able to understand pregame price movements. The only thing I can find is the Cricinfo preview where the correspondent talks up the chances of a result based on previous tests at the venue.
However there is also the comment "and even if the pitch currently appears dry and grassless", which should sound a note of caution to those bullish about the prospects of a result. I'm not in the camp that believes Pakistan have the ability to produce doctored pitches to further their cause, any more or less than other cricketing nations have the ability to do so, and besides they haven't had the time as if they had lost the second test at Multan they would be keen for a result here.
I haven't watched enough (test) cricket from Pakistan to label myself an expert, but the pitch for the current Ashes Test at Brisbane amply illustrates that pitch preparation in areas which suffer from a lack of rainfall is not exactly an easy art. So I'm expecting another flattish deck, but one which may provide that little bit more of assistance to the bowlers to enable a more even contest between bat and ball.
Final tests in cricket test series can be influenced by the current state of play - and is a factor that warrants reasonable attention prior to the toss. Pakistan are 1-up, and while they'll play for a win it's a factor that must be borne in mind for the duration. For those who habitually go against the draw, what you want to see is the team behind in the series batting first - so when they bat in their second innings you know they'll be looking for ways to produce a result (assuming they're not so far behind to make that irreleveant). The opposite can also occur - the team ahead might be quite happy in the later stages for the game to meander to a draw.
Hence I do not usually get involved heavily pregame for final tests in a series. If West Indies are batting first, I'll be heavily against the draw for the duration. If Pakistan are batting first, my strategy will be to back the West Indies or lay Paksitan to safeguard against early wickets and look to go against the draw at a far shorter price than it currently is.
The West Indies have shown enough in this series to be competitive - if there is any greater assistance for bowlers it will help them just as much as the Pakistani attack. To tip a side that has not won a test away from home for more than 6 years might be seen as bonkers, but I think they have the ability to do so. My prices (pretoss) would be: Pak $2.40 WI $4.00 Draw $3.00.
(prices are the best available to back and lay - market is illiquid)
Woke up this morning to see the draw had drifted from evens to 2.34 before settling - quite why I don't know and for this series I haven't been able to understand pregame price movements. The only thing I can find is the Cricinfo preview where the correspondent talks up the chances of a result based on previous tests at the venue.
However there is also the comment "and even if the pitch currently appears dry and grassless", which should sound a note of caution to those bullish about the prospects of a result. I'm not in the camp that believes Pakistan have the ability to produce doctored pitches to further their cause, any more or less than other cricketing nations have the ability to do so, and besides they haven't had the time as if they had lost the second test at Multan they would be keen for a result here.
I haven't watched enough (test) cricket from Pakistan to label myself an expert, but the pitch for the current Ashes Test at Brisbane amply illustrates that pitch preparation in areas which suffer from a lack of rainfall is not exactly an easy art. So I'm expecting another flattish deck, but one which may provide that little bit more of assistance to the bowlers to enable a more even contest between bat and ball.
Final tests in cricket test series can be influenced by the current state of play - and is a factor that warrants reasonable attention prior to the toss. Pakistan are 1-up, and while they'll play for a win it's a factor that must be borne in mind for the duration. For those who habitually go against the draw, what you want to see is the team behind in the series batting first - so when they bat in their second innings you know they'll be looking for ways to produce a result (assuming they're not so far behind to make that irreleveant). The opposite can also occur - the team ahead might be quite happy in the later stages for the game to meander to a draw.
Hence I do not usually get involved heavily pregame for final tests in a series. If West Indies are batting first, I'll be heavily against the draw for the duration. If Pakistan are batting first, my strategy will be to back the West Indies or lay Paksitan to safeguard against early wickets and look to go against the draw at a far shorter price than it currently is.
The West Indies have shown enough in this series to be competitive - if there is any greater assistance for bowlers it will help them just as much as the Pakistani attack. To tip a side that has not won a test away from home for more than 6 years might be seen as bonkers, but I think they have the ability to do so. My prices (pretoss) would be: Pak $2.40 WI $4.00 Draw $3.00.
Labels: cricket
posted by Rob Crawford at 1:54 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home