Ashes Round 2
AUS ($1.53) v ENGLAND ($9) v DRAW ($4.2)
Despite the thrashing handed out in the first test, Australia start at longer odds - possibly due to the reputation of the Adelaide pitch, the recovery by England in their second innings earlier this week, and also the doubt surrounding McGrath and whether he will play.
First, let's get this three-horse race down to two. Can England win? No, or at least they don't have the 11% chance the prices suggest. The only possible way I can see England winning is by posting a huge score batting first, and a combination of the runs pressure and the pace bowlers behind Flintoff miraculously finding some form - and Panesar playing - seeing Australia falter. Is that an 11% chance. No way in hell.
So it's Australia v the draw. Adelaide has a reputation as one of the flatter tracks in the lucky country with Australia scoring at least 400 in their first innings every test there this decade. Opposition teams also don't mind the track - taking out NZ's paltry effort of 251 in 2004 - scores range from England's 342 on their last visit to India's 523 in the only test Oz have lost there in recent times.
So it's full of runs, right? Well not necessarily - domestic cricket at the Adelaide Oval this year hasn't produced a mountain of runs and even in England's warm-up game earlier this month pacemen (from both sides) were finding success at the top of the order.
Throw in the fact that there is very little chance of weather interruptions, and test draws involving Australia where there are 450 overs available for play are about as common as an All Black defeat, and it all points to one thing - another Australian win.
It's not rocket science. But the problems that McGrath has with his heel throws a spanner in the works. There is no doubt in my mind the last Ashes turned when McGrath turned his ankle. McGrath out, or operating at less than 100%, does make Australia's job more difficult.
So with that little caveat, lump on the Aussies. $1.53 for a team whose home record this decade reads 28 wins, 2 losses and 4 draws is just a little big. Or, if you're worried about McGrath not playing and the draw, lay England - yes, even at $9. If England can take 20 wickets AND their batsmen outscore the Aussies, I'll be looking for a real job.
Despite the thrashing handed out in the first test, Australia start at longer odds - possibly due to the reputation of the Adelaide pitch, the recovery by England in their second innings earlier this week, and also the doubt surrounding McGrath and whether he will play.
First, let's get this three-horse race down to two. Can England win? No, or at least they don't have the 11% chance the prices suggest. The only possible way I can see England winning is by posting a huge score batting first, and a combination of the runs pressure and the pace bowlers behind Flintoff miraculously finding some form - and Panesar playing - seeing Australia falter. Is that an 11% chance. No way in hell.
So it's Australia v the draw. Adelaide has a reputation as one of the flatter tracks in the lucky country with Australia scoring at least 400 in their first innings every test there this decade. Opposition teams also don't mind the track - taking out NZ's paltry effort of 251 in 2004 - scores range from England's 342 on their last visit to India's 523 in the only test Oz have lost there in recent times.
So it's full of runs, right? Well not necessarily - domestic cricket at the Adelaide Oval this year hasn't produced a mountain of runs and even in England's warm-up game earlier this month pacemen (from both sides) were finding success at the top of the order.
Throw in the fact that there is very little chance of weather interruptions, and test draws involving Australia where there are 450 overs available for play are about as common as an All Black defeat, and it all points to one thing - another Australian win.
It's not rocket science. But the problems that McGrath has with his heel throws a spanner in the works. There is no doubt in my mind the last Ashes turned when McGrath turned his ankle. McGrath out, or operating at less than 100%, does make Australia's job more difficult.
So with that little caveat, lump on the Aussies. $1.53 for a team whose home record this decade reads 28 wins, 2 losses and 4 draws is just a little big. Or, if you're worried about McGrath not playing and the draw, lay England - yes, even at $9. If England can take 20 wickets AND their batsmen outscore the Aussies, I'll be looking for a real job.
Labels: cricket
posted by Rob Crawford at 5:37 PM
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