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  • 29 December 2005

    Day 4 Bets

    Currently at 58/3 I think this game is pretty much dead. Maybe not, but I'm probably done betting it, unless one of the two unlikely results becomes a remote possibility.

    Bets today were:

    Back SAF 62 @ 15 (Aus 114-2)
    Laid SAF 50 @ 8
    Laid SAF 100 @ 7.4
    Back Draw 100 @ 6.5

    Last 3 bets all when SAF 9-0, leaving a book of:

    Aus +1350
    SAF +1700
    Draw +328

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    Day 3 Bets

    Laid SAF shortly after the start of the day and backed Oz not long after. My reasoning being Gibbs looked as uncomfortable as he had done the day before and Kallis looked his usual disinterested self in scoring runs. I didn't think the SAF price would get too much shorter during the day.

    I got that bit right. After Kallis went, and with the wickets falling the prices oscillated and I vascillated. At 7 down, I bailed. That bit I got wrong. While I can live with laying Oz and backing SAF at this time (they are reversals of bets earlier in the day), the draw back definitely smells of losing bottle. Oh well. To be fair, Pollock and Boje can bat, but not yesterday. I was a little surprised to see the draw drfit from 3.2 to 4.2 with the last 3 wickets. Still, it's left me in a reasonable position and my aim for each test is to walk away with 1000 quid, so (assuming there is a result) that should be achieved.

    Laid SAF 1000 @ between 4.8 and 5.0 (just after start of play)
    Back Aus 500 @ 3.2 (SAF 180-2)
    Back Draw 2000 @ between 3.25 and 3.3 (SAF 269-7)
    Laid Aus 1000 @ 1.8 (SAF 270-7)
    Back SAF 44.17 @ 7 (SAF 270-7)
    Back SAF 200 @ 9 (SAF 280-8)
    Back SAF 52.13 @ 9.2 (SAF 291-9)
    Back SAF 41 @ 14 (Aus 43-0)

    CP: Aus +1362 SAF +1922 Draw -310
    Prices: Aus 1.58 SAF 12.5 Draw 3.4

    My thoughts for Day 4 and 5:

    I'm not prepared to write off SAF just yet and I don't mind being a little overweight on them. They do need to bowl the Aussies out, and reasonably quickly, but the Aussie middle-order has been known to collapso calypso before. It is more likely Aussie will bat and declare, but will Ponting get it right this time? Surely surely surely he will not bat too long this time, but I wouldn't put my house on it. I think this situation is tailor-made for one of Symonds or Gilchrist to smash themselves into some form - if either of these two get going then I predict a declaration around tea when 400 ahead.

    Could SAF survive 110 to 120 overs this time? It will be harder (the pitch does look like it will deteriorate to some extent), but not competely out of the question. So in my mind, all 3 results are possible with an Oz win the most likely. Hardly rocket science, but I will be keeping an open mind about the two unlikely results during Day 4.

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    28 December 2005

    Day 2 Bets

    Back Draw 500 @ 7.0 (before the start of play)
    Back SAF 200 @ 4.0 (Aus 286-9)
    Lay Draw 800 @ 4.0 (Aus 303-9)
    Back SAF 200 @ 7.0 (Aus 316-9)
    Back Aus 400 @ 2.0 (SAF 36-0)
    Laid SAF 200 @ 6.0 (SAF 112-1)

    Might turn out to regret the extra draw lay but the way the prices reacted to Australia's last wicket partnership I couldn't help myself.

    CP: Aus +2400 SAF +4473.75 Draw -6000

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    27 December 2005

    BOXING DAY means ...

    a test at the MCG (Melbourne Cricket Ground). Quite a sight to see 70,000 hungover Australians pack into a sporting stadium for a day at the cricket - but more about this test later.

    Xmas Day means family for many and I had a great time catching up with my eldest brother who I haven't seen for ages. Within 5 minutes, I had found out he had a Betfair account (what are the chances?) and so no surprises for guessing what dominated the early conversation. I knew he was interested in gambling - about 30 years ago he wanted to do his PhD thesis on the under/over backing of favourites/longshots on NZ's pari-mutuel system but wasn't allowed; not deemed a suitable topic. But it's still a bit of a surprise to see him playing around in his spare time with Betfair, and I guess there will be a lot of people like him, having a dabble here and there.

    Right, back to the cricket. It took about 24 hours to get out of a terrible mood after taking a shellacking on the first test - a draw after 20 wickets on the first 2 days? Who would have had the balls to back that? Well, I did a little, had 150 quid at 23 but quickly gave it back at 13's. Had laid the draw pregame at 7's and didn't recover.

    So, my two biggest losses on test cricket this year both involve Australia, and both involve wanker decisions by the Australian captain. To go off for light in the last ashes test, and not to declare to allow someone to score a double century. I've got to stop - I'm getting in a foul mood just thinking about it again ...

    So, after Day 1 of the second test with Australia 240-odd for 8, there is no way I can afford a repeat performance and I will be backing back the draw. Just a matter of when - definitely some now with the draw touching 7.0 - I need to go away and think about it. For this test, I'll put up my bets so you can see how I operate (and update daily):

    Day 1:

    Laid Draw: 1000 quid at 4.5 (pregame)
    Laid Draw: 1000 quid at 3.4
    Backed South Africa: 100 quid at 13.5
    Backed South Africa: 49.41 quid at 16.5 (trying to get matched for 100 but the second wicket fell)
    Laid South Africa: 49.41 quid at 5.9

    Current Position: Aus +1900 SAF: +3773.75 Draw: -6000
    Current Prices: Aus 1.8 SAF 3.3 Draw 6.8

    I also keep in mind something I call "current cost of liability". Basically, what would it cost to get me out of the shit with my worst result? Currently, that is about 882 quid (6000 divided by 6.8) which still leaves healthy profits on the other two results. Obviously not the worst position to be in after one day of a test match, the bad news is there are still 4 days in which to fk it up. So do come back tomorrow :-)


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    18 December 2005

    MERRY XMAS

    The last couple of days have been hectic with moving house, work to catch up on and a cricket test to watch. And from today there's another one starting (India v Sri Lanka).

    Moving house at Xmas time - should be banned. Still, the power and SkyTV is on, and the broadband is flowing - everything else (like unpacking) can wait. A fascinating first test between the Saffers and Ockers - all-square after two days, and thankfully the pre-game standard draw lay looks like bringing home the chocolates. Just wish I'd done it for a bigger amount. I've just laid the Aussies at 1.40 - it's a trade with relatively little risk - if they bat well and shorten, how short can they go? With the draw at over 20's, I might back it a little, as if the Aussies do bat well today, the draw will shorten in to 10's or under, where I'll quite happily go against it again. I can't see this test being a draw; I'll be surprised if it gets to lunchtime on Day 5.

    Unlike the one to start tonight in India. Prices are roughly India 2.5, Sri Lanka 5.1, Draw 2.3. It's a game I won't get too heavily involved in, as I believe the draw is a significant possibility.

    After that, the Boxing Day test at Melbourne and the first ODI between NZ and Sri Lanka on New Year's Eve will see the completion of the punting year. It will be quiet on the blog until then ... Xmas time and I do have a family now! ... but the next post I'll put up at the end of the year will be a review of my first year as a reasonably serious sports punter. It's been a good year, I made my goal financially, but it certainly hasn't been all plain sailing and some lessons have been learnt, which I need to record as much for myself as anything else.

    So until then, have a great Xmas and see in the New Year with a smile on your face. I've already made my 2006 resolution - to lose some of the flab that's around my belly so to my O'ing friends, don't die of shock if you see me turn up in a forest sometime next year (look for an entry under the name of Kevin Ireland...).

    13 December 2005

    SPORT/BET: Another 1.01 sunk

    That is two unbelievable ODI cricket games in less than a week. The Blackcaps, who know more ways to lose a game than win, actually chase down 330 with an over to spare. Yes, they didn't have my money riding on them, but thankfully had got myself in a "no-lose" situation, with basically a free bet on the Aussies at half-time. Didn't see anything to change my mind during the run chase, until the last few overs by which time it was too late to change horses.

    Firstly, the Aussies bowled very poorly in the final overs (perhaps they've caught the Kiwis disease?). McCullum comes in, hits a few over extra cover for 4 or 6, so what do the bowlers do? Nice, full-length balls outside off stump. Thwack thwack thwack. Groundhog Day. Vettori, who has been around for years and everyone knows (or should know) the two places not to bowl to him (on his pads, or short outside off), gets a half volley on leg stump. Thwack. Honestly, the St Kilda under-11's could have bowled better.

    There is no way NZ should have won that game. Good on them for doing so, and it proves once again that Australia without McGrath is a vulnerable side. In hindsight, I should have given the Kiwis a chance of chasing down a world-record score against a second-string bowling attack, missing both McGrath and Lee. Worrying times for Australia, for while they've got batsmen coming out of their ears, bowlers win cricket games. It also pays to remember they have Shaun Tait and Shane Watson out injured, however it's nice to see they also have problems with their depth. What chance Shane Warne playing in the VB series???

    I didn't bet in the second innings (save for backing the Aussies at 1.77 and laying it off at 1.40 to increase my eventual worthless profit on them), but quite a few did, at some short prices. Aussie did actually touch 1.01 - about 800 quid matched, a bit at 1.02 too, but there was some significant money matched at 1.04 to 1.09.

    I have a strong aversion to backing strong odds-on shots (the favourite / longshot bias is a subject for another day), mainly for psychological reasons. I know if I backed a 1.1 shot and it lost, I'd be spewing for a month and I don't need the stress! Much better to lay a 1.1 shot, watch it come in and pretend you're a farking know-it-all ...

    Enough about this game. Aussies play South Africa on Friday. These ODI's mean nothing in this context - Aussie in Perth with a bowling attack of McGrath, Lee, Bracken and Warne, and they're around 1.50. Too high - but I'll probably lay the draw instead.

    08 December 2005

    SPORT/BET: Always expect the unexpected

    Sport is so unpredictable - yesterday's ODI between Oz and NZ is yet another sample of evidence. Successful run chases over 300 are rare indeed - 12 out of 170 last time I looked, so when the underdog gets within 2 runs of a 322 target just 4 days after being comprehensively thrashed, you just shake your head in amazement and move on.

    Predicting sport can be a mug's game and make you look like a fool. So the first ODI I expected to be close and NZ got thrashed. So I expect NZ to get thrashed in the second ODI and they nearly pull off a spectacular win. Wrong both times, but if I look at my P/L (profit/loss) for the two games I'm up (albeit a small amount). I don't mind looking like a right prat so long as my betting account is moving in the right direction. I actually didn't spend much time in front of the computer yesterday and in hindsight missed out on a great game for trading. But I've learned over the year to get reasonably philosophical - there are always more opportunities around the corner.

    In any sporting contest, always expect the unexpected, and keep an open mind. I've seen too many examples of turnarounds and unexpected results this year to ALWAYS never completely write off the seemingly "impossible" result. Some of the recent ones that I've seen include (prices in brackets):

    (1) England (1.09) were 64-1 chasing 190 odd to win the first cricket test against Pakistan. They lost by 22 runs.
    (2) The draw (1.07) looked likely in the third test at lunch on the final day with England only 2 down. They were all out by tea.
    (3) Barcelona (1.02) were leading Deportivo 2-0 with 15 minutes to go in a Spanish soccer game. It ended 2-2.
    (4) I could add Jamie Stewart finishing the Adventure Racing World Champs to this list, but fortunately there was no betting on this ...

    Others include Michael Campbell's win in the US Open, Liverpool winning the European Cup against AC Milan after being 3-0 down at halftime, and Bangladesh beating Australia in an ODI. All these were 200-1 shots or bigger.

    It's easy to be wise in hindsight - I've only caught the fish (going against sub 1.1 shots - i.e. near certainties) twice all year - (2) above, and laying the Brumbies at halftime vs. Chiefs in the Super 12 (14 points up - it ended in a draw). Probably because I'm reasonably conservative in betting and don't like to mess around with profit already gained towards the end of a sporting contest. That's my style at the moment, and it works for me.

    But, never never NEVER sit with a massive liability on the seemingly "impossible" result if you have a reasonable profit on the other(s). 99 times out of 100 you'll be OK, but it's the other time you'll remember far longer if it burns you. The beauty of sport is it's unpredictability; something that anyone putting money on a sporting contest should always keep at the forefront of their mind.

    SPORT/BET: Always expect the unexpected

    Sport is so unpredictable - yesterday's ODI between Oz and NZ is yet another sample of evidence. Successful run chases over 300 are rare indeed - 12 out of 170 last time I looked, so when the underdog gets within 2 runs of a 322 target just 4 days after being comprehensively thrashed, you just shake your head in amazement and move on.

    Predicting sport can be a mug's game and make you look like a fool. So the first ODI I expected to be close and NZ got thrashed. So I expect NZ to get thrashed in the second ODI and they nearly pull off a spectacular win. Wrong both times, but if I look at my P/L (profit/loss) for the two games I'm up (albeit a small amount). I don't mind looking like a right prat so long as my betting account is moving in the right direction. I actually didn't spend much time in front of the computer yesterday and in hindsight missed out on a great game for trading. But I've learned over the year to get reasonably philosophical - there are always more opportunities around the corner.

    In any sporting contest, always expect the unexpected, and keep an open mind. I've seen too many examples of turnarounds and unexpected results this year to ALWAYS never completely write off the seemingly "impossible" result. Some of the recent ones that I've seen include (prices in brackets):

    (1) England (1.09) were 64-1 chasing 190 odd to win the first cricket test against Pakistan. They lost by 22 runs.
    (2) The draw (1.07) looked likely in the third test at lunch on the final day with England only 2 down. They were all out by tea.
    (3) Barcelona (1.02) were leading Deportivo 2-0 with 15 minutes to go in a Spanish soccer game. It ended 2-2.
    (4) I could add Jamie Stewart finishing the Adventure Racing World Champs to this list, but fortunately there was no betting on this ...

    Others include Michael Campbell's win in the US Open, Liverpool winning the European Cup against AC Milan after being 3-0 down at halftime, and Bangladesh beating Australia in an ODI. All these were 200-1 shots or bigger.

    It's easy to be wise in hindsight - I've only caught the fish (going against sub 1.1 shots - i.e. near certainties) twice all year - (2) above, and laying the Brumbies at halftime vs. Chiefs in the Super 12 (14 points up - it ended in a draw). Probably because I'm reasonably conservative in betting and don't like to mess around with profit already gained towards the end of a sporting contest. That's my style at the moment, and it works for me.

    But, never never NEVER sit with a massive liability on the seemingly "impossible" result if you have a reasonable profit on the other(s). 99 times out of 100 you'll be OK, but it's the other time you'll remember far longer if it burns you. The beauty of sport is it's unpredictability; something that anyone putting money on a sporting contest should always keep at the forefront of their mind.

    07 December 2005

    SPORT/BET: Do the rain dance

    That's about the only thing I can see getting in the way of another mauling at the hands of the Aussie cricketers in the second ODI today. Unfortunately, the weather forecast is improving.

    In the animal kingdom, if a predator sees any sign of fear in a target, they go in for the kill. The wolves are circling, and I ain't betting on the outcome - Aussie at 1.35 is almost tempting to back, but I'll wait until the game is in play before deciding to do anything. Chances are I'll do nothing at all - the game is a no bet for me.

    It's a quiet time on the betting front for the next week or so; I won't be doing much until the Aussie South Africa test series kicks off on Dec 16 - which happens to be the day I start moving house. That, coupled with catching up on some work means a quiet time on the blog for the next few days or so.

    Oh, and a wedding date has been provisionally set for June 10 next year (weekend after QB). Who wants an invite?

    03 December 2005

    MORE AUSSIE BASHING

    OK, now I'm getting serious.

    A couple of weeks ago, when NZ won the hosting rights to the Rugby World Cup in 2011, it emerged that our supposed close friends had voted for Japan. From a nation that bowls underarm to win a cricket game, we shouldn't be surprised.

    This week comes the news that AIS (Australian Institute of Sport) are now getting picky about who they invite (from foreign shores) to their world-class facilities. Seems that with the results in Australian sport this year, they've had enough of sharing their knowledge and expertise with others and the attitude now is "unless you've got something to offer us in return, don't come knocking on our door".

    Fair enough, you might say. But sport is not war. Sports stay strong through meaningful competition (look at the upsurge in interest in cricket this year in the UK when somebody actually competed with the Aussies for a change). Sports develop and globally grow through both the strong nations keeping strong, and the developing nations having a chance to also progress, and neither aim should be compromised at the expense of the other.

    A little history lesson for any Australian readers. Back in the 1970's (and earlier), the Australian rugby team were about at the level of say a Fiji today and when they visited our shores they earned nicknames such as "the awful aussies" and "the woeful wallabies". At the time, the NZ public wondered why we should even bother playing them, but do our duty we did, and handed out regular 40 point thrashings. But in addition to playing them, representative teams also started regular trans-tasman matches, and the rise in competitiveness of Australian rugby is in part due to the regular contact they had with NZ teams both at a national and provincial level. In other words, they learnt off us, and good on them, for some of the recent Bledisloe Cup matches have been great sporting spectacles.

    New Zealand entered test cricket in 1930. Apart from one match in 1946, the Australians refused to play us at test level until the 1970's, because they considered us a bit of a joke.

    Note the difference in attitudes? Any wonder why rugby is suddenly becoming a global sport while cricket is still played by a handful of countries?

    Selfishness in sport has no place. Of course winning is important, and at the highest level, almost the only thing that counts BUT ...

    not at the expense of some of the ideals that sport embraces. Sport has given me great friendships, amazing experiences and has probably made me a better person. That is what is important. For the Aussies to suddenly close shop after a bit of a lean trot in results is sad and in some ways shows how dependent their culture is on sporting success. Unfortunately no-one, not even the Aussies, will benefit from their shift in attitude.

    If you want further proof about how desperate Australians are to celebrate sporting success to make themselves feel good, this from today's paper:

    "The diggers went to work at Telstra Stadium this week. Their target? The penalty spot from which John Aloisi placed the ball seconds before smacking home the winner against Uruguay... to find the last qualifier for next year's World Cup. The grassy souvenir will join Phar Lap's heart and Don Bradman's batting pads as the latest Australian sporting artefact."

    So, qualifying for the top 32 in a soccer tournament ranks right up with Australian's greatest racehorse (we'll ignore the fact it was born in NZ) and cricketer. Yep, these sure are desperate times. Gawd help the cricketers if they too lose to the Kiwis this week.