Day 3 Bets
Laid SAF shortly after the start of the day and backed Oz not long after. My reasoning being Gibbs looked as uncomfortable as he had done the day before and Kallis looked his usual disinterested self in scoring runs. I didn't think the SAF price would get too much shorter during the day.
I got that bit right. After Kallis went, and with the wickets falling the prices oscillated and I vascillated. At 7 down, I bailed. That bit I got wrong. While I can live with laying Oz and backing SAF at this time (they are reversals of bets earlier in the day), the draw back definitely smells of losing bottle. Oh well. To be fair, Pollock and Boje can bat, but not yesterday. I was a little surprised to see the draw drfit from 3.2 to 4.2 with the last 3 wickets. Still, it's left me in a reasonable position and my aim for each test is to walk away with 1000 quid, so (assuming there is a result) that should be achieved.
Laid SAF 1000 @ between 4.8 and 5.0 (just after start of play)
Back Aus 500 @ 3.2 (SAF 180-2)
Back Draw 2000 @ between 3.25 and 3.3 (SAF 269-7)
Laid Aus 1000 @ 1.8 (SAF 270-7)
Back SAF 44.17 @ 7 (SAF 270-7)
Back SAF 200 @ 9 (SAF 280-8)
Back SAF 52.13 @ 9.2 (SAF 291-9)
Back SAF 41 @ 14 (Aus 43-0)
CP: Aus +1362 SAF +1922 Draw -310
Prices: Aus 1.58 SAF 12.5 Draw 3.4
My thoughts for Day 4 and 5:
I'm not prepared to write off SAF just yet and I don't mind being a little overweight on them. They do need to bowl the Aussies out, and reasonably quickly, but the Aussie middle-order has been known to collapso calypso before. It is more likely Aussie will bat and declare, but will Ponting get it right this time? Surely surely surely he will not bat too long this time, but I wouldn't put my house on it. I think this situation is tailor-made for one of Symonds or Gilchrist to smash themselves into some form - if either of these two get going then I predict a declaration around tea when 400 ahead.
Could SAF survive 110 to 120 overs this time? It will be harder (the pitch does look like it will deteriorate to some extent), but not competely out of the question. So in my mind, all 3 results are possible with an Oz win the most likely. Hardly rocket science, but I will be keeping an open mind about the two unlikely results during Day 4.
I got that bit right. After Kallis went, and with the wickets falling the prices oscillated and I vascillated. At 7 down, I bailed. That bit I got wrong. While I can live with laying Oz and backing SAF at this time (they are reversals of bets earlier in the day), the draw back definitely smells of losing bottle. Oh well. To be fair, Pollock and Boje can bat, but not yesterday. I was a little surprised to see the draw drfit from 3.2 to 4.2 with the last 3 wickets. Still, it's left me in a reasonable position and my aim for each test is to walk away with 1000 quid, so (assuming there is a result) that should be achieved.
Laid SAF 1000 @ between 4.8 and 5.0 (just after start of play)
Back Aus 500 @ 3.2 (SAF 180-2)
Back Draw 2000 @ between 3.25 and 3.3 (SAF 269-7)
Laid Aus 1000 @ 1.8 (SAF 270-7)
Back SAF 44.17 @ 7 (SAF 270-7)
Back SAF 200 @ 9 (SAF 280-8)
Back SAF 52.13 @ 9.2 (SAF 291-9)
Back SAF 41 @ 14 (Aus 43-0)
CP: Aus +1362 SAF +1922 Draw -310
Prices: Aus 1.58 SAF 12.5 Draw 3.4
My thoughts for Day 4 and 5:
I'm not prepared to write off SAF just yet and I don't mind being a little overweight on them. They do need to bowl the Aussies out, and reasonably quickly, but the Aussie middle-order has been known to collapso calypso before. It is more likely Aussie will bat and declare, but will Ponting get it right this time? Surely surely surely he will not bat too long this time, but I wouldn't put my house on it. I think this situation is tailor-made for one of Symonds or Gilchrist to smash themselves into some form - if either of these two get going then I predict a declaration around tea when 400 ahead.
Could SAF survive 110 to 120 overs this time? It will be harder (the pitch does look like it will deteriorate to some extent), but not competely out of the question. So in my mind, all 3 results are possible with an Oz win the most likely. Hardly rocket science, but I will be keeping an open mind about the two unlikely results during Day 4.
Labels: cricket
posted by Rob Crawford at 6:41 AM
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