BOXING DAY means ...
a test at the MCG (Melbourne Cricket Ground). Quite a sight to see 70,000 hungover Australians pack into a sporting stadium for a day at the cricket - but more about this test later.
Xmas Day means family for many and I had a great time catching up with my eldest brother who I haven't seen for ages. Within 5 minutes, I had found out he had a Betfair account (what are the chances?) and so no surprises for guessing what dominated the early conversation. I knew he was interested in gambling - about 30 years ago he wanted to do his PhD thesis on the under/over backing of favourites/longshots on NZ's pari-mutuel system but wasn't allowed; not deemed a suitable topic. But it's still a bit of a surprise to see him playing around in his spare time with Betfair, and I guess there will be a lot of people like him, having a dabble here and there.
Right, back to the cricket. It took about 24 hours to get out of a terrible mood after taking a shellacking on the first test - a draw after 20 wickets on the first 2 days? Who would have had the balls to back that? Well, I did a little, had 150 quid at 23 but quickly gave it back at 13's. Had laid the draw pregame at 7's and didn't recover.
So, my two biggest losses on test cricket this year both involve Australia, and both involve wanker decisions by the Australian captain. To go off for light in the last ashes test, and not to declare to allow someone to score a double century. I've got to stop - I'm getting in a foul mood just thinking about it again ...
So, after Day 1 of the second test with Australia 240-odd for 8, there is no way I can afford a repeat performance and I will be backing back the draw. Just a matter of when - definitely some now with the draw touching 7.0 - I need to go away and think about it. For this test, I'll put up my bets so you can see how I operate (and update daily):
Day 1:
Laid Draw: 1000 quid at 4.5 (pregame)
Laid Draw: 1000 quid at 3.4
Backed South Africa: 100 quid at 13.5
Backed South Africa: 49.41 quid at 16.5 (trying to get matched for 100 but the second wicket fell)
Laid South Africa: 49.41 quid at 5.9
Current Position: Aus +1900 SAF: +3773.75 Draw: -6000
Current Prices: Aus 1.8 SAF 3.3 Draw 6.8
I also keep in mind something I call "current cost of liability". Basically, what would it cost to get me out of the shit with my worst result? Currently, that is about 882 quid (6000 divided by 6.8) which still leaves healthy profits on the other two results. Obviously not the worst position to be in after one day of a test match, the bad news is there are still 4 days in which to fk it up. So do come back tomorrow :-)
Xmas Day means family for many and I had a great time catching up with my eldest brother who I haven't seen for ages. Within 5 minutes, I had found out he had a Betfair account (what are the chances?) and so no surprises for guessing what dominated the early conversation. I knew he was interested in gambling - about 30 years ago he wanted to do his PhD thesis on the under/over backing of favourites/longshots on NZ's pari-mutuel system but wasn't allowed; not deemed a suitable topic. But it's still a bit of a surprise to see him playing around in his spare time with Betfair, and I guess there will be a lot of people like him, having a dabble here and there.
Right, back to the cricket. It took about 24 hours to get out of a terrible mood after taking a shellacking on the first test - a draw after 20 wickets on the first 2 days? Who would have had the balls to back that? Well, I did a little, had 150 quid at 23 but quickly gave it back at 13's. Had laid the draw pregame at 7's and didn't recover.
So, my two biggest losses on test cricket this year both involve Australia, and both involve wanker decisions by the Australian captain. To go off for light in the last ashes test, and not to declare to allow someone to score a double century. I've got to stop - I'm getting in a foul mood just thinking about it again ...
So, after Day 1 of the second test with Australia 240-odd for 8, there is no way I can afford a repeat performance and I will be backing back the draw. Just a matter of when - definitely some now with the draw touching 7.0 - I need to go away and think about it. For this test, I'll put up my bets so you can see how I operate (and update daily):
Day 1:
Laid Draw: 1000 quid at 4.5 (pregame)
Laid Draw: 1000 quid at 3.4
Backed South Africa: 100 quid at 13.5
Backed South Africa: 49.41 quid at 16.5 (trying to get matched for 100 but the second wicket fell)
Laid South Africa: 49.41 quid at 5.9
Current Position: Aus +1900 SAF: +3773.75 Draw: -6000
Current Prices: Aus 1.8 SAF 3.3 Draw 6.8
I also keep in mind something I call "current cost of liability". Basically, what would it cost to get me out of the shit with my worst result? Currently, that is about 882 quid (6000 divided by 6.8) which still leaves healthy profits on the other two results. Obviously not the worst position to be in after one day of a test match, the bad news is there are still 4 days in which to fk it up. So do come back tomorrow :-)
Labels: cricket
posted by Rob Crawford at 9:34 AM
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