SPORT/BET: Always expect the unexpected
Sport is so unpredictable - yesterday's ODI between Oz and NZ is yet another sample of evidence. Successful run chases over 300 are rare indeed - 12 out of 170 last time I looked, so when the underdog gets within 2 runs of a 322 target just 4 days after being comprehensively thrashed, you just shake your head in amazement and move on.
Predicting sport can be a mug's game and make you look like a fool. So the first ODI I expected to be close and NZ got thrashed. So I expect NZ to get thrashed in the second ODI and they nearly pull off a spectacular win. Wrong both times, but if I look at my P/L (profit/loss) for the two games I'm up (albeit a small amount). I don't mind looking like a right prat so long as my betting account is moving in the right direction. I actually didn't spend much time in front of the computer yesterday and in hindsight missed out on a great game for trading. But I've learned over the year to get reasonably philosophical - there are always more opportunities around the corner.
In any sporting contest, always expect the unexpected, and keep an open mind. I've seen too many examples of turnarounds and unexpected results this year to ALWAYS never completely write off the seemingly "impossible" result. Some of the recent ones that I've seen include (prices in brackets):
(1) England (1.09) were 64-1 chasing 190 odd to win the first cricket test against Pakistan. They lost by 22 runs.
(2) The draw (1.07) looked likely in the third test at lunch on the final day with England only 2 down. They were all out by tea.
(3) Barcelona (1.02) were leading Deportivo 2-0 with 15 minutes to go in a Spanish soccer game. It ended 2-2.
(4) I could add Jamie Stewart finishing the Adventure Racing World Champs to this list, but fortunately there was no betting on this ...
Others include Michael Campbell's win in the US Open, Liverpool winning the European Cup against AC Milan after being 3-0 down at halftime, and Bangladesh beating Australia in an ODI. All these were 200-1 shots or bigger.
It's easy to be wise in hindsight - I've only caught the fish (going against sub 1.1 shots - i.e. near certainties) twice all year - (2) above, and laying the Brumbies at halftime vs. Chiefs in the Super 12 (14 points up - it ended in a draw). Probably because I'm reasonably conservative in betting and don't like to mess around with profit already gained towards the end of a sporting contest. That's my style at the moment, and it works for me.
But, never never NEVER sit with a massive liability on the seemingly "impossible" result if you have a reasonable profit on the other(s). 99 times out of 100 you'll be OK, but it's the other time you'll remember far longer if it burns you. The beauty of sport is it's unpredictability; something that anyone putting money on a sporting contest should always keep at the forefront of their mind.
Predicting sport can be a mug's game and make you look like a fool. So the first ODI I expected to be close and NZ got thrashed. So I expect NZ to get thrashed in the second ODI and they nearly pull off a spectacular win. Wrong both times, but if I look at my P/L (profit/loss) for the two games I'm up (albeit a small amount). I don't mind looking like a right prat so long as my betting account is moving in the right direction. I actually didn't spend much time in front of the computer yesterday and in hindsight missed out on a great game for trading. But I've learned over the year to get reasonably philosophical - there are always more opportunities around the corner.
In any sporting contest, always expect the unexpected, and keep an open mind. I've seen too many examples of turnarounds and unexpected results this year to ALWAYS never completely write off the seemingly "impossible" result. Some of the recent ones that I've seen include (prices in brackets):
(1) England (1.09) were 64-1 chasing 190 odd to win the first cricket test against Pakistan. They lost by 22 runs.
(2) The draw (1.07) looked likely in the third test at lunch on the final day with England only 2 down. They were all out by tea.
(3) Barcelona (1.02) were leading Deportivo 2-0 with 15 minutes to go in a Spanish soccer game. It ended 2-2.
(4) I could add Jamie Stewart finishing the Adventure Racing World Champs to this list, but fortunately there was no betting on this ...
Others include Michael Campbell's win in the US Open, Liverpool winning the European Cup against AC Milan after being 3-0 down at halftime, and Bangladesh beating Australia in an ODI. All these were 200-1 shots or bigger.
It's easy to be wise in hindsight - I've only caught the fish (going against sub 1.1 shots - i.e. near certainties) twice all year - (2) above, and laying the Brumbies at halftime vs. Chiefs in the Super 12 (14 points up - it ended in a draw). Probably because I'm reasonably conservative in betting and don't like to mess around with profit already gained towards the end of a sporting contest. That's my style at the moment, and it works for me.
But, never never NEVER sit with a massive liability on the seemingly "impossible" result if you have a reasonable profit on the other(s). 99 times out of 100 you'll be OK, but it's the other time you'll remember far longer if it burns you. The beauty of sport is it's unpredictability; something that anyone putting money on a sporting contest should always keep at the forefront of their mind.
posted by Rob Crawford at 8:55 AM
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