SPORT/BET: Another 1.01 sunk
That is two unbelievable ODI cricket games in less than a week. The Blackcaps, who know more ways to lose a game than win, actually chase down 330 with an over to spare. Yes, they didn't have my money riding on them, but thankfully had got myself in a "no-lose" situation, with basically a free bet on the Aussies at half-time. Didn't see anything to change my mind during the run chase, until the last few overs by which time it was too late to change horses.
Firstly, the Aussies bowled very poorly in the final overs (perhaps they've caught the Kiwis disease?). McCullum comes in, hits a few over extra cover for 4 or 6, so what do the bowlers do? Nice, full-length balls outside off stump. Thwack thwack thwack. Groundhog Day. Vettori, who has been around for years and everyone knows (or should know) the two places not to bowl to him (on his pads, or short outside off), gets a half volley on leg stump. Thwack. Honestly, the St Kilda under-11's could have bowled better.
There is no way NZ should have won that game. Good on them for doing so, and it proves once again that Australia without McGrath is a vulnerable side. In hindsight, I should have given the Kiwis a chance of chasing down a world-record score against a second-string bowling attack, missing both McGrath and Lee. Worrying times for Australia, for while they've got batsmen coming out of their ears, bowlers win cricket games. It also pays to remember they have Shaun Tait and Shane Watson out injured, however it's nice to see they also have problems with their depth. What chance Shane Warne playing in the VB series???
I didn't bet in the second innings (save for backing the Aussies at 1.77 and laying it off at 1.40 to increase my eventual worthless profit on them), but quite a few did, at some short prices. Aussie did actually touch 1.01 - about 800 quid matched, a bit at 1.02 too, but there was some significant money matched at 1.04 to 1.09.
I have a strong aversion to backing strong odds-on shots (the favourite / longshot bias is a subject for another day), mainly for psychological reasons. I know if I backed a 1.1 shot and it lost, I'd be spewing for a month and I don't need the stress! Much better to lay a 1.1 shot, watch it come in and pretend you're a farking know-it-all ...
Enough about this game. Aussies play South Africa on Friday. These ODI's mean nothing in this context - Aussie in Perth with a bowling attack of McGrath, Lee, Bracken and Warne, and they're around 1.50. Too high - but I'll probably lay the draw instead.
Firstly, the Aussies bowled very poorly in the final overs (perhaps they've caught the Kiwis disease?). McCullum comes in, hits a few over extra cover for 4 or 6, so what do the bowlers do? Nice, full-length balls outside off stump. Thwack thwack thwack. Groundhog Day. Vettori, who has been around for years and everyone knows (or should know) the two places not to bowl to him (on his pads, or short outside off), gets a half volley on leg stump. Thwack. Honestly, the St Kilda under-11's could have bowled better.
There is no way NZ should have won that game. Good on them for doing so, and it proves once again that Australia without McGrath is a vulnerable side. In hindsight, I should have given the Kiwis a chance of chasing down a world-record score against a second-string bowling attack, missing both McGrath and Lee. Worrying times for Australia, for while they've got batsmen coming out of their ears, bowlers win cricket games. It also pays to remember they have Shaun Tait and Shane Watson out injured, however it's nice to see they also have problems with their depth. What chance Shane Warne playing in the VB series???
I didn't bet in the second innings (save for backing the Aussies at 1.77 and laying it off at 1.40 to increase my eventual worthless profit on them), but quite a few did, at some short prices. Aussie did actually touch 1.01 - about 800 quid matched, a bit at 1.02 too, but there was some significant money matched at 1.04 to 1.09.
I have a strong aversion to backing strong odds-on shots (the favourite / longshot bias is a subject for another day), mainly for psychological reasons. I know if I backed a 1.1 shot and it lost, I'd be spewing for a month and I don't need the stress! Much better to lay a 1.1 shot, watch it come in and pretend you're a farking know-it-all ...
Enough about this game. Aussies play South Africa on Friday. These ODI's mean nothing in this context - Aussie in Perth with a bowling attack of McGrath, Lee, Bracken and Warne, and they're around 1.50. Too high - but I'll probably lay the draw instead.
posted by Rob Crawford at 7:56 AM
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