ABs by 9

Sorry for the late post - the wife demanded today be a shopping day and it's in my best interests to occasionally say yes. Actually this week I've been a bit lazy but my views on tomorrow's test haven't changed much since the beginning of the week.

NZ opened up $1.16 at the NZ TAB which is too short, and have drifted slightly to $1.20. The match odds do not tempt me to back Australia, and once again I am drawn to the price on NZ winning by 12 and under, which you can get for $2.80 at the TAB.

While there is always a chance of a blow-out if the All Blacks really click into gear, the Wallabies performance at Newlands (and at Brisbane last year) lead me down the path of another physical tight contest, which the ABs should win. What I'll be watching tomorrow with interest is:

(a) the lineouts - can be an achilles heel for the ABs and Vickerman showed against SAF he's lost nothing in his injury-enforced absence; and

(b) tactical kicking - to be honest, no side in the Tri-Nations so far have shown much intelligence when booting the ball down the other end of the park, and I wonder whether either side tomorrow will be any better. In particular I'll be watching Huxley - he's not a test No. 15 but did show in a couple of Super 14 games when he's put the right boots on, he is as good a tactical kicker as anyone. If he's carving off large chunks of territory, this game could turn into an arm wrestle.

So on the balance of probabilities, a win for the ABs under the handicap which the bookies have around 12 points. I'd rather take the $2.80 for a NZ win by 12 and under than back Aus on the handicap (expect a lot of spewing on Monday if Oz cause an upset).

Have a good weekend.