Groundhog Day
Perhaps partly because of my mood (yes, haven't quite sailed out of the doldrums yet), but rugby prices are boring me to tears at the moment - and it's hard to think of new ways to say the same thing, so at the risk of sending my four regular readers off to sleep ...
Yes, the TAB has NZ winning tomorrow night's Bledisloe Cup clash by 12 and under at a mouth-watering $2.85. I haven't seen anything over the last few weeks to convince me that suddenly the All Blacks will catch more passes than they spill, the backs will run up and down the field instead of across, and a 30-point thrashing is on the cards. Yes, it could happen (fuck, how many times have I said that over the last couple of months?), but on the balance of probabilities, we'll have another scrappy, error-ridden win that will all leaving us scratching our heads, but hopefully with fatter wallets.
The more adventurous of you who would like to speculate to accumulate might perhaps be interested in the $4.50 for NZ by 8-14.
If Oz manage to add their bit to Groundhod Day by repeating their miracle of Melbourne, you'll hear the screams coming out of my household from the other side of the world, as this time I'm not saving on them winning. Gawd help us if they do - can you imagine the cackling from the other side of the Tasman if we lose both the rugby and netball in the same week in the Queen City?
Now, here's a couple of exercises who take (or want to take) their punting a little seriously.
Exercise One.
The H2H (head-to-head) prices for this weekend's rugby test on Betfair is NZ 1.20 Australia 6.20 (for the purposes of this, we're ignoring the draw). The price on Betfair for NZ to reach the final of the RWC is 1.21. Given the probable semi-final opponent of the All Blacks (hint: they wear yellow), logically explain in 20 words or less how these prices are consistent with each other.
Exercise Two.
The prices for the first cricket test between England v India at the commenement of play on Day 1 are approx. England 5.0 India 8.0 Draw 1.46. (There is a shitload of rain forecast for Day 2 which you assume has been factored into the market). An average first day of test cricket sees the team batting first score in the high 200's for the loss of 4 wickets.
At the close of play, England are 268-4. The close of day prices are England 7.4 India 21 Draw 1.21. Another logical explanation required in 20 words or less.
Have a good weekend.
P.S. Tim - you've piqued my interest in the Air NZ Cup. A mate who knows more than I do says it's a three-horse race between the Jafas, Cowbells and Public Servants. That 8.0 you can get at Centrebet I'd take without a second thought.
Yes, the TAB has NZ winning tomorrow night's Bledisloe Cup clash by 12 and under at a mouth-watering $2.85. I haven't seen anything over the last few weeks to convince me that suddenly the All Blacks will catch more passes than they spill, the backs will run up and down the field instead of across, and a 30-point thrashing is on the cards. Yes, it could happen (fuck, how many times have I said that over the last couple of months?), but on the balance of probabilities, we'll have another scrappy, error-ridden win that will all leaving us scratching our heads, but hopefully with fatter wallets.
The more adventurous of you who would like to speculate to accumulate might perhaps be interested in the $4.50 for NZ by 8-14.
If Oz manage to add their bit to Groundhod Day by repeating their miracle of Melbourne, you'll hear the screams coming out of my household from the other side of the world, as this time I'm not saving on them winning. Gawd help us if they do - can you imagine the cackling from the other side of the Tasman if we lose both the rugby and netball in the same week in the Queen City?
Now, here's a couple of exercises who take (or want to take) their punting a little seriously.
Exercise One.
The H2H (head-to-head) prices for this weekend's rugby test on Betfair is NZ 1.20 Australia 6.20 (for the purposes of this, we're ignoring the draw). The price on Betfair for NZ to reach the final of the RWC is 1.21. Given the probable semi-final opponent of the All Blacks (hint: they wear yellow), logically explain in 20 words or less how these prices are consistent with each other.
Exercise Two.
The prices for the first cricket test between England v India at the commenement of play on Day 1 are approx. England 5.0 India 8.0 Draw 1.46. (There is a shitload of rain forecast for Day 2 which you assume has been factored into the market). An average first day of test cricket sees the team batting first score in the high 200's for the loss of 4 wickets.
At the close of play, England are 268-4. The close of day prices are England 7.4 India 21 Draw 1.21. Another logical explanation required in 20 words or less.
Have a good weekend.
P.S. Tim - you've piqued my interest in the Air NZ Cup. A mate who knows more than I do says it's a three-horse race between the Jafas, Cowbells and Public Servants. That 8.0 you can get at Centrebet I'd take without a second thought.
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posted by Rob Crawford at 12:23 PM
1 Comments:
I have been working on exercise one for weeks and can't find a sensible answer. Not that that's a bad thing, this world cup market has been a lot of fun. Just a shame I don't have a lot more cash.
Also why 'public servants'? Pretty sure I know the other two.
Rugbyman
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