Eng v India Preview
Cricket afficionados should keep a close eye on the third cricket test starting tonight (NZT), as I believe an intriguing battle is in store. For once the miserable English summer is unlikely to have any influence, which presents to us the not uncommon conundrum of assessing how likely a result will be in conditions likely to suit batsmen more than bowlers with five fullish days available.
The other influence to factor, as with all final tests in a series, is the series score and the motivation each team will have to force a result. Here the home team enter the Oval 1-0 down and rather keen to ensure they don't suffer their first home series defeat since 2001, while India no doubt would like to show they can win a test series away from home (ignoring the West Indian one last year, that doesn't count), as they have shown over the last few years an uncanny knack of dropping the final test while touring.
Notwithstanding England's collapse here last year (partly helped by the conditions), the Oval can be a rather nice place to swing willow as opposed to a red ball, with - again ignoring the West Indies - only two instances of first innings scores of under 300. The bowlers likely to have the most influence are seamers who can extract bounce out of the pitch (e.g. Chris Tremlett) and I suspect Kumble might enjoy rolling his arm over, but I don't think they'll be taking 5-60 in an innings.
It's difficult to set prices for the game, as the toss, and who gets to bat first, is significant. In a place where you are not expecting the team batting first to collapse, they have the advantage of setting the tempo for the game. And in batting third, they can have the greatest influence of deciding how probable a result will be.
So if England bat first, a result becomes more probable and my rough odds would be:
England 2.6 India 2.9 Draw 3.7
If India bat first, don't expect any generous third innings declaration and thus the odds change to:
England 3.3 India 2.6 Draw 3.1
One trick I like doing in final tests where the score is 1-0 is looking at the odds on offer and predicting what will happen to the prices based on the two potential outcomes of the toss. Currently on Betfair, the market has England 2.7 India 4.0 Draw 2.58 - if England win the toss and bat their odds will shorten but I can't see such a move been dramatic, whereas if they lose the toss and India bat I expect a much bigger correction to the prices currently offered. I'll leave it to you to work out what this means and how you can take advantage of it.
But if you're looking for a bet on the game, India are definitely a bit big and the draw as usual underpriced - but in all probability the draw price will be a lot shorter during the game and there should be opportunities to oppose it as the game progresses (depending of course on circumstances).
I might - depending on how bad the sleep deprivation is and how my book is looking - provide an update of each day's play and provide an insight into how this "professional" bets during a cricket test. If you hate cricket, see you in 5 days' time.
The other influence to factor, as with all final tests in a series, is the series score and the motivation each team will have to force a result. Here the home team enter the Oval 1-0 down and rather keen to ensure they don't suffer their first home series defeat since 2001, while India no doubt would like to show they can win a test series away from home (ignoring the West Indian one last year, that doesn't count), as they have shown over the last few years an uncanny knack of dropping the final test while touring.
Notwithstanding England's collapse here last year (partly helped by the conditions), the Oval can be a rather nice place to swing willow as opposed to a red ball, with - again ignoring the West Indies - only two instances of first innings scores of under 300. The bowlers likely to have the most influence are seamers who can extract bounce out of the pitch (e.g. Chris Tremlett) and I suspect Kumble might enjoy rolling his arm over, but I don't think they'll be taking 5-60 in an innings.
It's difficult to set prices for the game, as the toss, and who gets to bat first, is significant. In a place where you are not expecting the team batting first to collapse, they have the advantage of setting the tempo for the game. And in batting third, they can have the greatest influence of deciding how probable a result will be.
So if England bat first, a result becomes more probable and my rough odds would be:
England 2.6 India 2.9 Draw 3.7
If India bat first, don't expect any generous third innings declaration and thus the odds change to:
England 3.3 India 2.6 Draw 3.1
One trick I like doing in final tests where the score is 1-0 is looking at the odds on offer and predicting what will happen to the prices based on the two potential outcomes of the toss. Currently on Betfair, the market has England 2.7 India 4.0 Draw 2.58 - if England win the toss and bat their odds will shorten but I can't see such a move been dramatic, whereas if they lose the toss and India bat I expect a much bigger correction to the prices currently offered. I'll leave it to you to work out what this means and how you can take advantage of it.
But if you're looking for a bet on the game, India are definitely a bit big and the draw as usual underpriced - but in all probability the draw price will be a lot shorter during the game and there should be opportunities to oppose it as the game progresses (depending of course on circumstances).
I might - depending on how bad the sleep deprivation is and how my book is looking - provide an update of each day's play and provide an insight into how this "professional" bets during a cricket test. If you hate cricket, see you in 5 days' time.
Labels: cricket
posted by Rob Crawford at 1:03 PM
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