Moving Day

No, not the third round of a golf tournament - the next 2 days sees all my worldly possessions being transplanted from current abode to another 100 km's away. So sports and betting has taken a back seat over the last few days, including updating this blog.

But I did manage to catch most of the rugby and cricket over the weekend - India's win in the 20/20 was a surprise to me, as if you ran clips of their 20/20 performances and their recent ODI series against England side by side you'd have to wonder if aliens have suddenly inhabited their body.

The rugby is consuming most of my subconcious though - crossing fingers that Henry selects Howlett for the Romania match (somehow I don't think so) and wondering how much liability to carry through on the All Blacks into the real stages of RWC.

Once moved and settled in, three cricket series will take over the brain cells, starting on Saturday with perhaps the most interesting - Australia v India in an ODI series on the sub-continent. See you in a few days.

PS to Prekladatel - have replied to your comment.

When to strike?

The All Blacks continue to drift to win the Rugby World Cup, with the NZ TAB pushing their price out to $1.65 while at Betfair it has touched $1.70. The reasons behind the drift have nothing to do with the ABs themselves; rather a combination of South Africa looking a real challenger for the trophy on the other side of the draw, and a gradual realisation that the wild-card in the pack (France) have a greater chance of meeting NZ in the quarter-finals.

In many minds, such a drift is justified for these reasons, but stop and think for a moment. Who has the greatest control over the destiny of the All Blacks at RWC? Why, the ABs themselves of course. Yes, while a referee or brilliant opposition play may ultimately decide the winner, the ABs will to a significant extent determine the outcome. That’s the “benefit” of being the best in the world and a tournament favourite. Play to your ability and you win. It’s a simple equation. And as an aside, rather ironic the (good and bad) performances of other teams is what's driving the AB price at the moment.

So while there are a couple of injuries and a horribly soft run-in of pool games to a possible tricky quarter-final that may provide a few butterflies to a NZ supporter, in reality nothing much has changed since the tournament kicked off with respect to NZ’s chances of winning the tournament. And in betting that’s the important thing – making an assessment of the probability of an outcome.

So I’m going against the flow – a possible harder quarter-final against France means diddly-squat in my book. South Africa? Don’t have to worry about them until the final, and let’s not forget they – like the All Blacks – are not cast-iron certainties to get there. In my humble opinion, NZ’s price is getting close to worth backing – the question now is when to strike in case something (e.g. another France loss tomorrow) causes it to go back into freefall.

My back of an envelope price assessment of RWC Winner’s Market:

New Zealand $1.80
South Africa $4.00
Australia $12
France $30
Argentina $40
Scotland $200
Rest – who cares.

Possible Quarter-final matches:

New Zealand v France
Australia v England
Argentina v Scotland
Wales v South Africa

An AB Loss

Yes, you read it here first, the All Blacks have lost a game at the Rugby World Cup.

And would you believe it was to Portugal? No? Well, go here and all will be revealed (Sep 18 post).

Weekend Wrap

After the first weekend of RWC, I wasn't prepared to write off the northern sides, but with the further evidence presented over the last 48 hours if the four semifinalists are not from the southern hemisphere I'll run naked down the street. Given Ireland's complete meltdown Argentina should qualify top of Group D giving them a QF against Scotland. Which means we'll probably get the Frogs - and that ain't necessarily a good thing. Ahhh well, a couple of interesting QF's to watch then.

But before I get back to packing boxes, I'd like to share with you an outstanding piece of NZ sporting journalism. Yes, I'm back on the sporting minnows crusade, and you have to laugh that the article was penned at about the same time Georgia nearly caused the upset of the century against Ireland. This plonker argues the RWC should be reduced to 16 teams using the mis-match of the ABs and Portugal as a reason. Which conveniently ignores the fact that in 1995 when the ABS murdered Japan the RWC was only 16 teams.

Mis-matches will occur whether you have 20, 16 or perhaps even only 12 teams. In fact, given the SAF-England scoreline there may be a case for suggesting a 4-nation RWC if you want to avoid one-sided affairs. With a 16-team RWC we may not have had the Fiji-Canada or Samoa-Tonga games which were both entertaining and deserved their place at the tournament.

Mind you, this journo shows his intelligence in another article with this astonishing fact:

"... and Kirwan is the only New Zealand coach, this time managing Japan."

Pardon? So Peter Thorburn must be the waterboy for the American Eagles then. And while Michael Jones is obviously proud of his Samoan heritage I seem to recall he played in a black shirt after being born in Auckland.

The amount of articles the NZ Herald are churning out over the RWC is mind-boggling. If their writers believe there are too many minnows at the RWC, perhaps they should practice what they preach and concentrate themselves on quality rather than quantity.

Overload

So, let us see what's in store for the weekend then:

Midnight tonight - the Aussies and Poms clash in 20/20 cricket, followed by India v Pakistan, interrupted by the small matter of a rugby match between the Boks and the Poms. Soon after that finishes, take stepdaughter to netball (normally I'd get wife to, but she's in bed sick).

Try and get some sleep during the daylight hours tomorrow, as I have to go to my brother's 50th birthday tomorrow evening, which I'll be leaving after a few hours to get back for some more cricket (NZ v Sri Lanka) and rugby (Wales v Australia).

Preparing for a weekend like this is a friggin nightmare, especially as I'm distracted by a pending house and town shift in 2 weeks time. Yes, you may question the wisdom of the timing, but you should see the schedule of cricket from October onwards.

So sorry, no words of wisdom today. I can't even summon the intellect to try and write something mildly interesting or humourous. My brain is fried and I need to go and get some shut-eye before the next 48 hours of madness.

I can't resist

Over 500,000 pounds at odds of $1.02 was wagered on Betfair for Australia to beat Zimbabwe at the 20/20 Cricket World Cup.

MWAHHHH HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Minnow Bashing

No, not the Rugby World Cup. The so-called minnows there are doing rather well thank you with Romaina the latest to show they will not necessarily take the expected arse-rogering of John Holmes proportions lying down (although towards the end of pool play they may be buggered - yes, pun intended - by four games in three weeks).

I'm talking Hockey; specifically Papua New Guinean Hockey. Didn't know that Papua New Guinea play hockey? Well, judging by their efforts in the Oceania Qualifying Series, despite fielding a team it is stretching the truth to say they "play" hockey. They may have 11 people standing on a bit of artificial turf but playing hockey? Errr, no.

When it comes to the developmental aims of international elite sport I usually side with the Eddie the Eagles and Eric the Eels of this world - possibly because of first-hand experience as a wannabe international athlete who in reality was not even good enough to tie up the shoelaces of the top competitors I was up against. I made my mark in the bar afterwards, but I digress.

Seeing Papua New Guines thrashed 39-0 by New Zealand and 35-0 by Australia this week crosses the line into farce. Isn't Hockey only 70 mintues long? 4 goals every 7 minutes - did the poor bastards ever get the ball? Out of interest, I tried googling to see what the world record score in another sport that involves a 1-point goal scoring system was - soccer, sorry, football.

In the World Cup it's 31-0 - handed out by Australia to American Samoa in 2001. But remember soccer is 90 minutes, not 70, so you can almost accept that as a contest. I said almost. And then I came across this delightful piece where a club side in Madagascar scored own goals in protest and lost 149-0 - go and have a read, it's rather amusing.

But getting back to the hockey - developing global competition is IMO a noble aim for any sport but all sports should safeguard against farcical situations - and 39-zip in 70 min of hockey qualifies.

And a postscript to Stephen Fleming - yep, he's been sacked. Immediately retires from One Day cricket. Does not confirm availability past the two tests against South Africa in November. If we lose him prematurely, what a waste and a sad end to a distinguished career.

Premature Ejection

You gotta be friggin kiddin me.

Richard Boock's article in the Sunday Star-Times with a follow-up piece in the Dominion Post suggests Stephen Fleming's time as captain of the NZ cricket team is about to come to a sudden end.

You gotta be friggin kiddin me.

Now while sports journos are not exactly in the Nostradamus category when it comes to predictions, given that Boock wrote Fleming's book we can safely assume the two do speak to each other and in this case there is a bit of wood burning causing the smoke on the horizon.

And if NZ Cricket are about to dump Fleming as captain, I'd rank it in the Rugby League Sports Management and American Military Intelligence category of oxymorons. Dumb Dumb Dumb. Sure, Fleming is in the twilight of his career but surely as our most successful captain ever and one of the world's best over the last 10 years he has earned some right to stage manage his exit? The fact he gave up the ODI captaincy after the World Cup shows he is not really wanting to hang onto the reins longer than he perhaps should. He is still in fine nick (a 243 for Nottinghamshire last week) and at age 34 you wouldn't think senility has crept in yet, would you?

The only ones showing signs of senility are NZ Cricket's coach and selectors. States Boock:

It's thought the New Zealand selectors are anxious to continue with Fleming's services as a batsman, but are unwilling to retain him as captain

Well here's a thought. If you demote Fleming as captain, my money is on him giving NZ cricket the big two-fingered salute and buggering off to the rebel Indian Cricket League. Honestly, NZ cricket is living in cloud cuckoo land if they think they can demote him from the captaincy yet retain his services as a batsmen.

The fact is Fleming is still the best qualified for the job, and can still hold his place in the side. And with test series away to South Africa, England and Australia over the next 12 months, it ain't the time to be blooding the heir apparent. IF NZ Cricket had any brains, they would look at the long-term calendar, see we have a softish domestic season in 2008/9 with visits by West Indies and India and promote Vettori then.

This is all so completely stupid you have to wonder what Fleming has done to piss off either (or both) the selectors or coach Bracewell. Yet again you're left with the feeling personalities and politics get in the way of rational decision-making in a NZ sports organisation.

Weekend Wrap

Having watched every Super 14 match earlier in the year, there ain't no way I am even going to attempt to watch all matches from the Rugby World Cup, especially with the 20/20 cricket about to start and the small matter of moving towns on the horizon.

The only game that really mattered was the first - as Argentina upset the hosts and threw a spanner into my prediction of a NZ v France final. It may still happen, as the finishing positions in that pool will probably not be decided until the final match on Sept 30 (Ireland v Argentina). While most people are musing on the sub-standard performance by the French, the main point I took out of the game was the refereeing. Spreadbury was horrible - his control over the breakdown was non-existent and while I do not begrudge the Pumas their victory (they deserved it purely on their tactical nous and errors the French made), play that game with a different referee who knows something about killing the ball illegally and you would probably have a different result. No, not sour grapes (I didn't bet) - but the lesson to be learned is get a referee who will be lenient on slowing the ball down and you will have a horrible, defence-dominated game which is exactly what the All Blacks do not want. Those are the sorts of games where they will be brought back to the chasing pack.

So while we can all crow about the teams south of the Equator getting off to a flying start while the northern hemisphere (supposed) giants struggle to put away the likes of USA and Namibia, it won't mean much if the likes of a Spreadbury controls a game that matters where defence is allowed to dominate and it becomes a contest of territory and who has their kicking boots on. That is my major fear for the ABs winning the tournament.

Now I all hope you put some moolah on Douggie being top tryscorer like I told you. Don't panic this week when Henry names the Fijians for the Portugal game - actually it is possible Howlett will get the start to get the tryscoring record out of the way, which would be nice. Habana grabbing 4 for the South Efrikaans wasn't exactly in the script; if he scores a couple more in pool play someone pass me the number of a French hitman please.

Back tomorrow or Wed for a serve at NZ Cricket.

Back In Black

Yeah that "Northland Blue" sucked - the RWC is about to start so I'm going back to the blackout.

I've run out of steam on the betting preview - I might get back to it Friday but with a ODI tonight I need to spend a bit of time thinking about earning money.

RWC Betting Preview (Chapter Two)

OK OK despite my warnings you’re itching to have a bet. Here’s one:

TOP TRYSCORER

Usually I avoid these markets like the plague as with 20 teams of 30 players you’re on a hiding to nothing. Yes, you can whittle the field down to half a dozen serious contenders but there is always a chance some dirt-tracker will score a bucket-load during one of the cricket-score games and throw the market out of whack.

That nearly happened in 1995 when Marc Ellis refused to pass the ball to his wingers in NZ’s romp over Japan – he ended up joint top for the tournament with Lomu. But it doesn’t always – Latham got five in the Wallabies training run against Namibia 4 years ago, but didn’t end up at the top of the tree.

In every World Cup, a winger has ended up as top (or joint top) tryscorer. And in 4 of the 5 editions, that winger has worn a black jersey. So no surprises where we start looking hardest:

(NZTAB Prices)

J Rococoko $5.50
S Sivivatu $5.50
D Howlett $8.00

And this is where I think the bookies have got it wrong. Howlett is the outsider of the three I presume because up until recently he has not been flavour of the month with the AB selectors. The key words there are “until recently” – Howlett’s 2007 form is definitely an improvement on his past couple of seasons and his selection for the final Tri-Nations game leads me to suspect he is now the first choice No. 14. It helps the other two wingers in the Squad are principally No. 11’s. Basically, unless Howlett gets an attack of the dropsies I expect he’ll be wearing 14 more often than not.

With 4 pool games, there are 8 selection spots for the wingers and my expectation are they’ll be shared 3-3-2. From the quarters on, the third-choice winger won’t even be in the match-day 22. So assuming a finals appearance it is possible two of the AB wingers will play 6 games and the other only 2.

I have been known to be wrong in the past, but it is my opinion Howlett is the number one right winger, I think Sivivatu will be warming the bench more than the others, so I think $8 is a reasonable price in this market. For the record, I got $13.50 at Betfair and I’ll be looking for more at anything over $10. You may want to wait until the team (expected to be the top XV) is named for the opening game against Italy, but that runs the risk of the bookies cutting the price when they wake up.

Yes, there are wingers in other teams apart from New Zealand – but traditionally the ABs score the most tries in the tournament and I don’t expect that to change this time around. Of the other teams, the French are next in line to consider but only the world’s best psychic will have any clues about Laporte’s selection policy. But their outside backs are all are at tasty prices.

While there are inherent risks in this market (e.g. an unusually defence-dominated tournament may see some dirt-tracker at the top of the list), $8 is a reasonable price in my opinion - $13.50 definitely so.

EDIT 11.50 a.m.

Yes, I forgot to mention the NZTAB has a top tryscorer market for New Zealand players, with Joe and Sivi at $3.75, and Doug at $5. If you're worried about some French garlic-munching winger scoring a truckload against Namibia and Georgia, there's worse bets around than backing Howlett at 5's in this market.

Weekend Wrap

Pssst Trev. There’s another Kiwi athlete out there that requires your psychological services. Women’s Marathon runner Nina Rillstone was “happy” with her 13th placing at the World Track and Field Championships:

"I'm happy enough - but if I'd managed a place in the top 10 and I would have been really, really happy," said Rillstone.

Now come on Trev. On a weekend where New Zealand can celebrate another four world champions we can’t have our also-rans expressing joy at a thirteenth place now, can we? Or being “really, really happy” if she managed to get into the top 10. Go and sort her out please.

Yes, three rowers (well, six actually – did you see the coxless four power past the 27-race unbeaten Brits? Phenomenal) and women’s motocross rider Katherine Prumm all won world titles in the weekend, which confirms what some of us have known since the days of Mark Todd and Charisma – when it comes to sports involving sitting on your arse, we Kiwis have a head start. Which kinda makes a mockery of SPARC’s Push Play campaign encouraging us to get outside and enjoy the fresh air.

Let’s face it –we are damn good at sitting on our arse. So instead of giving NZ Golf $1.4 million to try and turn us all into recreational walkers swinging a stick at a ball around a piece of grass, how about a new Lazy Boy for every family with 2 kids or more so we can ingrain from an early age the proper arse-sitting techniques that are so essential for sports such as equestrian and rowing.

Sounds like a bloody good idea to me. The fact that I need a new lounge suite – worn out from too much arse-sitting – of course has nothing to do with it.

Yeah, I’m in a good mood. When the pokie-loving wife comes home with the jackpot from the local pub in her handbag, followed by an inspired bet on India at $1.96 when England were 95-1 in their run chase last night (10 min later they were 104-4), I’m in love with life again. The only worrying thing about having a golden run in betting at the moment is currently I have a loss on an All Blacks win at RWC. Gulp.

RWC Betting Preview (Chapter One)

A major sporting tournament comes along, such as the Rugby World Cup, and bookies start salivating at the mouth. They know it’s a prime time to knick some money off Mum and Dad punter who only bet on special occasions, or where the more regular recreational gambler puts a little bit more money into his betting account. It’s Melbourne Cup day for 6 weeks.

If you go to (for example) the NZTAB’s website, you can see a myriad of options pertaining to the tournament – from who will win it, who’ll win the Pools, when some of the big teams will be eliminated, who will be the tournament’s top tryscorer etc etc. It all gets a bit overwhelming even for a supposed professional such as moi, so I can only assume it must look like a dog’s breakfast to others.

The key trick to major sporting tournaments is to ignore a lot of the markets. Sure, you might miss out on an opportunity, but more often than not you’ll be sucked into having a bad value bet. Let me give you an example. Even though rugby is my No. 2 betting sport, I don’t pretend to know everything that happens in the world of rugby. I wouldn’t have a clue how good Portugal is, who their top 15 players are and thus I can really only make an educated guess as to whether the All Blacks will cover the 110.5 point handicap that is already up at Betfair for their match against the Portuguese. And guessing and betting are not great bedfellows.

One of the golden rules in betting is stick to your knitting. So for a lot of the first month of the tournament, I’ll be sitting on the sidelines. OK, maybe I will back Portugal with the 110.5 point start (I’ll see how the Iberians play in their first match), but only because I know to win a game by that margin is feckin hard. The ABs have only ever done it once.

And so my advice to Joe Public is don’t get sucked into having a bet just for the sake of it. Another fundamental in betting-land is there is always another opportunity around the corner. But I know some of you will be itching to contribute to the profit of the NZ Racing Board, so without further ado here’s some pointers and advice from someone who supposedly knows what he is doing.

TOURNAMENT WINNER

Of course the major interest surrounding a tournament such as RWC is who is going to win the bloody thing. It tends to be the first market everyone looks at and where the most dollars end up going. Already at Betfair over 4 million quid has been wagered, most of it on the All Blacks at prices ranging from $1.38 to $2.60 (yes, the early birds got some value when this market opened up 12 months ago – alas I was not one of them).

This tournament has a dominant favourite and currently you can back NZ at $1.60 at both Betfair and the NZTAB. Interestingly, that $1.60 at our local bookie is one of the highest around – many overseas bookies still have the ABs shorter. Even though NZ has drifted over the last couple of months, the current price is not good value. By comparison, Australia was around $2.75 to win Cricket’s version of the Holy Grail earlier this year.

It is a frequent conundrum in sports betting that the most likely outcome has a price that is too short. The only thing you can do is keep your money in the wallet (or look for value on outsiders – more about that in a mo’). However, if you really want to back NZ to win the World Cup, I’d suggest an alternative method – back them in each knockout game. My prediction of (Betfair) prices from the quarters on goes something like this: v Ireland $1.10; v Australia $1.22; v SAF/France $1.33.

Multiply those three figures and you get $1.78 – yes I could be wrong (not only with the prices, but opponents) but it’s probable you’ll get more bang for your buck that way than sticking it on now in the winner’s market.

So if the All Blacks are too short, there must be value elsewhere, right? Unfortunately due to the bookies profit margin, not necessarily. Current prices for the four main contenders (if you want to back anyone else, be my guest) at NZTAB/Betfair are as follows:

New Zealand $1.60/$1.60
France $6.00/$9.20
South Africa $5.50/$8.40
Australia $8.00/$13.00

At the NZTAB it’s hard to get excited about any of those, while imho France are the most over-priced on the Betfair market (mainly due I think to their so-called Pool of Death). So in essence, if you think NZ are going to end 20 years of heartbreak, it may be worth taking the risk and all-up betting them from the quarter-final onwards. Based on current prices I think the best option is keeping your powder dry.