RWC Betting Preview (Chapter Two)

OK OK despite my warnings you’re itching to have a bet. Here’s one:

TOP TRYSCORER

Usually I avoid these markets like the plague as with 20 teams of 30 players you’re on a hiding to nothing. Yes, you can whittle the field down to half a dozen serious contenders but there is always a chance some dirt-tracker will score a bucket-load during one of the cricket-score games and throw the market out of whack.

That nearly happened in 1995 when Marc Ellis refused to pass the ball to his wingers in NZ’s romp over Japan – he ended up joint top for the tournament with Lomu. But it doesn’t always – Latham got five in the Wallabies training run against Namibia 4 years ago, but didn’t end up at the top of the tree.

In every World Cup, a winger has ended up as top (or joint top) tryscorer. And in 4 of the 5 editions, that winger has worn a black jersey. So no surprises where we start looking hardest:

(NZTAB Prices)

J Rococoko $5.50
S Sivivatu $5.50
D Howlett $8.00

And this is where I think the bookies have got it wrong. Howlett is the outsider of the three I presume because up until recently he has not been flavour of the month with the AB selectors. The key words there are “until recently” – Howlett’s 2007 form is definitely an improvement on his past couple of seasons and his selection for the final Tri-Nations game leads me to suspect he is now the first choice No. 14. It helps the other two wingers in the Squad are principally No. 11’s. Basically, unless Howlett gets an attack of the dropsies I expect he’ll be wearing 14 more often than not.

With 4 pool games, there are 8 selection spots for the wingers and my expectation are they’ll be shared 3-3-2. From the quarters on, the third-choice winger won’t even be in the match-day 22. So assuming a finals appearance it is possible two of the AB wingers will play 6 games and the other only 2.

I have been known to be wrong in the past, but it is my opinion Howlett is the number one right winger, I think Sivivatu will be warming the bench more than the others, so I think $8 is a reasonable price in this market. For the record, I got $13.50 at Betfair and I’ll be looking for more at anything over $10. You may want to wait until the team (expected to be the top XV) is named for the opening game against Italy, but that runs the risk of the bookies cutting the price when they wake up.

Yes, there are wingers in other teams apart from New Zealand – but traditionally the ABs score the most tries in the tournament and I don’t expect that to change this time around. Of the other teams, the French are next in line to consider but only the world’s best psychic will have any clues about Laporte’s selection policy. But their outside backs are all are at tasty prices.

While there are inherent risks in this market (e.g. an unusually defence-dominated tournament may see some dirt-tracker at the top of the list), $8 is a reasonable price in my opinion - $13.50 definitely so.

EDIT 11.50 a.m.

Yes, I forgot to mention the NZTAB has a top tryscorer market for New Zealand players, with Joe and Sivi at $3.75, and Doug at $5. If you're worried about some French garlic-munching winger scoring a truckload against Namibia and Georgia, there's worse bets around than backing Howlett at 5's in this market.