When to strike?
The All Blacks continue to drift to win the Rugby World Cup, with the NZ TAB pushing their price out to $1.65 while at Betfair it has touched $1.70. The reasons behind the drift have nothing to do with the ABs themselves; rather a combination of South Africa looking a real challenger for the trophy on the other side of the draw, and a gradual realisation that the wild-card in the pack (France) have a greater chance of meeting NZ in the quarter-finals.
In many minds, such a drift is justified for these reasons, but stop and think for a moment. Who has the greatest control over the destiny of the All Blacks at RWC? Why, the ABs themselves of course. Yes, while a referee or brilliant opposition play may ultimately decide the winner, the ABs will to a significant extent determine the outcome. That’s the “benefit” of being the best in the world and a tournament favourite. Play to your ability and you win. It’s a simple equation. And as an aside, rather ironic the (good and bad) performances of other teams is what's driving the AB price at the moment.
So while there are a couple of injuries and a horribly soft run-in of pool games to a possible tricky quarter-final that may provide a few butterflies to a NZ supporter, in reality nothing much has changed since the tournament kicked off with respect to NZ’s chances of winning the tournament. And in betting that’s the important thing – making an assessment of the probability of an outcome.
So I’m going against the flow – a possible harder quarter-final against France means diddly-squat in my book. South Africa? Don’t have to worry about them until the final, and let’s not forget they – like the All Blacks – are not cast-iron certainties to get there. In my humble opinion, NZ’s price is getting close to worth backing – the question now is when to strike in case something (e.g. another France loss tomorrow) causes it to go back into freefall.
My back of an envelope price assessment of RWC Winner’s Market:
New Zealand $1.80
South Africa $4.00
Australia $12
France $30
Argentina $40
Scotland $200
Rest – who cares.
Possible Quarter-final matches:
New Zealand v France
Australia v England
Argentina v Scotland
Wales v South Africa
In many minds, such a drift is justified for these reasons, but stop and think for a moment. Who has the greatest control over the destiny of the All Blacks at RWC? Why, the ABs themselves of course. Yes, while a referee or brilliant opposition play may ultimately decide the winner, the ABs will to a significant extent determine the outcome. That’s the “benefit” of being the best in the world and a tournament favourite. Play to your ability and you win. It’s a simple equation. And as an aside, rather ironic the (good and bad) performances of other teams is what's driving the AB price at the moment.
So while there are a couple of injuries and a horribly soft run-in of pool games to a possible tricky quarter-final that may provide a few butterflies to a NZ supporter, in reality nothing much has changed since the tournament kicked off with respect to NZ’s chances of winning the tournament. And in betting that’s the important thing – making an assessment of the probability of an outcome.
So I’m going against the flow – a possible harder quarter-final against France means diddly-squat in my book. South Africa? Don’t have to worry about them until the final, and let’s not forget they – like the All Blacks – are not cast-iron certainties to get there. In my humble opinion, NZ’s price is getting close to worth backing – the question now is when to strike in case something (e.g. another France loss tomorrow) causes it to go back into freefall.
My back of an envelope price assessment of RWC Winner’s Market:
New Zealand $1.80
South Africa $4.00
Australia $12
France $30
Argentina $40
Scotland $200
Rest – who cares.
Possible Quarter-final matches:
New Zealand v France
Australia v England
Argentina v Scotland
Wales v South Africa
Labels: RWC2007
posted by Rob Crawford at 2:51 PM
4 Comments:
Hi Robz,
Nice blog because so much on cricket trading.Got link from betfair cricket forum.Mine blog on cricket is http://findfreelay.blogspot.com
Looking for link exchange to share/make strategies for cricket trading.
Cheers
Dip K
Time to lay the AB'S now surely, very ordinary against Scotland B, pile into Argentina and hope the French can knock'm over, wouldnt you say Rob.
Prekladatel
Prek - having laid the ABs heavily pre-tournament I'm not rushing to top up what I have. On fundamentals their price is still too short but always will be until/if they get knocked over. The usual conundrum - the favourite is too short but how much do you want to take it on?
Argentina is very definitely overs for a possible semi-finalist, but again if you have some at 130's why rush to now take 40's :)
You shroodie ;-)
Laid off Howlett, thx for the tip, got a bit of Arg 65 outrite, here's hoping. Best of luck with it all.
Prek.
Post a Comment
<< Home