RWC Betting Preview (Chapter One)
A major sporting tournament comes along, such as the Rugby World Cup, and bookies start salivating at the mouth. They know it’s a prime time to knick some money off Mum and Dad punter who only bet on special occasions, or where the more regular recreational gambler puts a little bit more money into his betting account. It’s Melbourne Cup day for 6 weeks.
If you go to (for example) the NZTAB’s website, you can see a myriad of options pertaining to the tournament – from who will win it, who’ll win the Pools, when some of the big teams will be eliminated, who will be the tournament’s top tryscorer etc etc. It all gets a bit overwhelming even for a supposed professional such as moi, so I can only assume it must look like a dog’s breakfast to others.
The key trick to major sporting tournaments is to ignore a lot of the markets. Sure, you might miss out on an opportunity, but more often than not you’ll be sucked into having a bad value bet. Let me give you an example. Even though rugby is my No. 2 betting sport, I don’t pretend to know everything that happens in the world of rugby. I wouldn’t have a clue how good Portugal is, who their top 15 players are and thus I can really only make an educated guess as to whether the All Blacks will cover the 110.5 point handicap that is already up at Betfair for their match against the Portuguese. And guessing and betting are not great bedfellows.
One of the golden rules in betting is stick to your knitting. So for a lot of the first month of the tournament, I’ll be sitting on the sidelines. OK, maybe I will back Portugal with the 110.5 point start (I’ll see how the Iberians play in their first match), but only because I know to win a game by that margin is feckin hard. The ABs have only ever done it once.
And so my advice to Joe Public is don’t get sucked into having a bet just for the sake of it. Another fundamental in betting-land is there is always another opportunity around the corner. But I know some of you will be itching to contribute to the profit of the NZ Racing Board, so without further ado here’s some pointers and advice from someone who supposedly knows what he is doing.
TOURNAMENT WINNER
Of course the major interest surrounding a tournament such as RWC is who is going to win the bloody thing. It tends to be the first market everyone looks at and where the most dollars end up going. Already at Betfair over 4 million quid has been wagered, most of it on the All Blacks at prices ranging from $1.38 to $2.60 (yes, the early birds got some value when this market opened up 12 months ago – alas I was not one of them).
This tournament has a dominant favourite and currently you can back NZ at $1.60 at both Betfair and the NZTAB. Interestingly, that $1.60 at our local bookie is one of the highest around – many overseas bookies still have the ABs shorter. Even though NZ has drifted over the last couple of months, the current price is not good value. By comparison, Australia was around $2.75 to win Cricket’s version of the Holy Grail earlier this year.
It is a frequent conundrum in sports betting that the most likely outcome has a price that is too short. The only thing you can do is keep your money in the wallet (or look for value on outsiders – more about that in a mo’). However, if you really want to back NZ to win the World Cup, I’d suggest an alternative method – back them in each knockout game. My prediction of (Betfair) prices from the quarters on goes something like this: v Ireland $1.10; v Australia $1.22; v SAF/France $1.33.
Multiply those three figures and you get $1.78 – yes I could be wrong (not only with the prices, but opponents) but it’s probable you’ll get more bang for your buck that way than sticking it on now in the winner’s market.
So if the All Blacks are too short, there must be value elsewhere, right? Unfortunately due to the bookies profit margin, not necessarily. Current prices for the four main contenders (if you want to back anyone else, be my guest) at NZTAB/Betfair are as follows:
New Zealand $1.60/$1.60
France $6.00/$9.20
South Africa $5.50/$8.40
Australia $8.00/$13.00
At the NZTAB it’s hard to get excited about any of those, while imho France are the most over-priced on the Betfair market (mainly due I think to their so-called Pool of Death). So in essence, if you think NZ are going to end 20 years of heartbreak, it may be worth taking the risk and all-up betting them from the quarter-final onwards. Based on current prices I think the best option is keeping your powder dry.
If you go to (for example) the NZTAB’s website, you can see a myriad of options pertaining to the tournament – from who will win it, who’ll win the Pools, when some of the big teams will be eliminated, who will be the tournament’s top tryscorer etc etc. It all gets a bit overwhelming even for a supposed professional such as moi, so I can only assume it must look like a dog’s breakfast to others.
The key trick to major sporting tournaments is to ignore a lot of the markets. Sure, you might miss out on an opportunity, but more often than not you’ll be sucked into having a bad value bet. Let me give you an example. Even though rugby is my No. 2 betting sport, I don’t pretend to know everything that happens in the world of rugby. I wouldn’t have a clue how good Portugal is, who their top 15 players are and thus I can really only make an educated guess as to whether the All Blacks will cover the 110.5 point handicap that is already up at Betfair for their match against the Portuguese. And guessing and betting are not great bedfellows.
One of the golden rules in betting is stick to your knitting. So for a lot of the first month of the tournament, I’ll be sitting on the sidelines. OK, maybe I will back Portugal with the 110.5 point start (I’ll see how the Iberians play in their first match), but only because I know to win a game by that margin is feckin hard. The ABs have only ever done it once.
And so my advice to Joe Public is don’t get sucked into having a bet just for the sake of it. Another fundamental in betting-land is there is always another opportunity around the corner. But I know some of you will be itching to contribute to the profit of the NZ Racing Board, so without further ado here’s some pointers and advice from someone who supposedly knows what he is doing.
TOURNAMENT WINNER
Of course the major interest surrounding a tournament such as RWC is who is going to win the bloody thing. It tends to be the first market everyone looks at and where the most dollars end up going. Already at Betfair over 4 million quid has been wagered, most of it on the All Blacks at prices ranging from $1.38 to $2.60 (yes, the early birds got some value when this market opened up 12 months ago – alas I was not one of them).
This tournament has a dominant favourite and currently you can back NZ at $1.60 at both Betfair and the NZTAB. Interestingly, that $1.60 at our local bookie is one of the highest around – many overseas bookies still have the ABs shorter. Even though NZ has drifted over the last couple of months, the current price is not good value. By comparison, Australia was around $2.75 to win Cricket’s version of the Holy Grail earlier this year.
It is a frequent conundrum in sports betting that the most likely outcome has a price that is too short. The only thing you can do is keep your money in the wallet (or look for value on outsiders – more about that in a mo’). However, if you really want to back NZ to win the World Cup, I’d suggest an alternative method – back them in each knockout game. My prediction of (Betfair) prices from the quarters on goes something like this: v Ireland $1.10; v Australia $1.22; v SAF/France $1.33.
Multiply those three figures and you get $1.78 – yes I could be wrong (not only with the prices, but opponents) but it’s probable you’ll get more bang for your buck that way than sticking it on now in the winner’s market.
So if the All Blacks are too short, there must be value elsewhere, right? Unfortunately due to the bookies profit margin, not necessarily. Current prices for the four main contenders (if you want to back anyone else, be my guest) at NZTAB/Betfair are as follows:
New Zealand $1.60/$1.60
France $6.00/$9.20
South Africa $5.50/$8.40
Australia $8.00/$13.00
At the NZTAB it’s hard to get excited about any of those, while imho France are the most over-priced on the Betfair market (mainly due I think to their so-called Pool of Death). So in essence, if you think NZ are going to end 20 years of heartbreak, it may be worth taking the risk and all-up betting them from the quarter-final onwards. Based on current prices I think the best option is keeping your powder dry.
Labels: RWC2007
posted by Rob Crawford at 6:58 PM
1 Comments:
Hi Rob. Did you get my email? Haven’t received your response yet.
Edo.
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