Week 3 Bets

Right kiddies, you want:

a) the Force to beat the Chiefs ($25 @ 2.92) and
b) the Cheetahs to beat the Highlanders ($25 @ 2.22)

I'm tempted to spend the other $50 on the Reds and Stormers but will instead save it for a rainy day (i.e. wait until I believe there is some value in prices, so sometime down the track I'll be rash and spend $150). Go the Blues and Brumbies.

Typical,

The day I decide to leave a cricket game alone is the day it would, in hindsight, have been great to trade. I had a feeling during the innings break of yesterday's ODI that the Windies total of 200 might be competitive, but certainly didn't expect NZ to fold like a pack of cards early on ... 1 or 2 early wickets maybe, but 4? Bugger, another opportunity lost, and unfortunately with NZ getting out of jail it makes a 5-0 win more likely IMO. Possibly 4-1, and I will continue to wait for Bravo to get back in the side before having a bet.

With Australia in South Africa and England in India I should be getting back to my bread and butter (cricket) but need to get this weekend's Super 14 out of the way. So here goes (prices available to back at Betfair):

HURRICANES ($1.08) v CATS ($12)

Despite their win last week, the Cats are my favourites for the wooden spoon. Next.

FORCE ($2.92) v CHIEFS ($1.53)

Well, the Chiefs have been my disappointment of the Super 14 so far, whereas the Force have played reasonably well against tough opposition. Let's dissect the Force - a loss to the Brumbies but they were in the game with 20 to go, and a loss to the Hurricanes by 24, with 14 of those coming in the first 6 minutes. I thought their second-half effort against the Canes was fair, to say the least, esp. in the possession stakes. The Force are not helped by injuries, they have a few and are one of the sides who can ill-afford to have their fair share. But, the Force are not easybeats - they are starting to remind me a lot of the Breakers (NZ basketball franchise now into their third season in the Aussie league), a competitive team who when they first started out ended up losing most of their games but were not as bad as their record suggested.

Now turning to the Chiefs. Jonno (Gibbes) is back - thank the lord. And they are capable of improvement (the understatement of the century). But the big IF is whether this weekend will see the start of the turnaround.

I feel on the balance of probabilities the Chiefs will win, but no way do the Force deserve to be 2/1 shots. The price is too tempting, and I'll have a small wager on the Perth lads.

STORMERS ($2.52) v BRUMBIES ($1.68)

An intriguing match. Watched the Stormers for the first time last weekend and they went OK - the press after the game put the competitiveness of the match down to the Tahs being a bit off their game - but how much do you assign that to the opposition and how much is due to their own frailties? The Stormers and Cheetahs I lump in the same boat - a midtable side who will cause the supposedly top teams a reasonable amount of angst, esp. at home. The Brumbies have 1 liability (Bill Young) and 2 novices in the front row, but apart from that are solid, with Radike Samo coming back this week. So I expect a similar game to last week, an Aussie win but not without problems. At the prices, it's a no-bet but only just, I might try and get $2.60 for the Stormers which I would be happy to take.

CRUSADERS ($1.07) v SHARKS ($13.50)

Next.

REDS ($2.20) v BLUES ($1.83)

The prices are deflating, I expected the Blues to be shorter and this was to be my bet for the weekend. Obviously I am not the only one who is impressed with the Reds' effort so far which has been against the two finalists from last year. The Reds have been a bit of a bogeyteam for the Blues, not that history counts for much, but I do recall watching the Blues struggle to an 18-15 win last year at Eden Park in this match-up. Two years ago they lost in Brisbane.

Murphy's Law dictates the day I back the over-performing wooden spoon contenders against the under-performing semifinal aspirants, is the day form will revert back to it's true course (a bit like the Force v Chiefs game really). But at least with the Force I'm getting near to 2/1. At $2.20 I can't back the Reds with confidence, and I certainly can't back the Blues given the way they have been playing. So reluctantly it's a no-bet.

BULLS ($1.91) v WARATAHS ($2.06)

Match of the weekend - definitely getting up early on Sunday to watch this. A tough one to call, you would think the Bulls won't lose two in a row at Fortress Loftus, but with Major Matfield still out they are a touch vulnerable. One to watch and enjoy without spending any pennies, unless the prices change (Bulls are currently shortening) and the Tahs get to evens, where I'd be happy to go against them.

CHEETAHS ($2.22) v HIGHLANDERS ($1.83)

Another intriguing match - similar to the Stormers/Brumbies with a midtable-type side at home to a team that is perhaps a bit better. So will home grass even up the contest or perhaps sway it in favour of the Saffers? Hard to call, if I had to get off the fence it would be on the side of the Highlanders, so it's a no-bet.

In summary, not a great weekend punting-wise but I have to come up with $100 of bets for the NZ Junior Orienteering team. Each week I spend $100 on their behalf and they get to keep the winnings. So far I'm pleased to report that $200 has been turned into $340. I'm going to try and get $2.60 for the Stormers and $2.00 for the Bulls, as well as putting some on the Force, and if I can't get the prices I want I'll have to think of Plan B (which will NOT be $100 on the Force - the price is good but not that good). So I need another day mulling and will have the bets up in 24 hours time.

Weekend Wrap

One of the key disciplines in punting is just that - discipline. Easy to know, harder to practice consistently 100% of the time. So after telling myself the ODI series between NZ and the West Indies is likely to be a no contest, I get seduced by the prices on offer and I can't resist going against NZ at 1.24. Money down the drain. I'm not even going to turn on the TV on Wednesday for the next one, but feel WI could possibly pinch one later on, when they get Dwayne Bravo back.

Still, thanks to the Super 14, I've ended the weekend slightly ahead. Even Blind Freddy could have made money on the weekend's rugby, with 4 "outsiders" getting up in the 7 matches played. I'm sure some people would look at me funny if I told them I backed the Brumbies, but you make money in this game sometimes by taking the opposing view. Strangely, despite the win I think the Brumbies are going to run into problems - they now have their No.1 and 2 hookers out for the season and it's not one of the positions you want your depth tested.

Injuries. They are certainly going to play a huge part in this competition. It's why you cannot say 14 weeks out that so-and-so are going to win the comp. It's also a reason to play the winner's market, even if it does tie up your money for 3 months. So far, I'm happy to have laid the Blues and backed the Brumbies before the start, still OK about laying the Waratahs, but have already written off the 100 quid I put on the Chiefs. They can still turn it around but I won't hold my breath. At the moment, I'm trying to get a piece of the Bulls (having drifted after their loss) and I plan to lay the Hurricanes once they wipe the floor with the Cats next weekend, if I can do so around 4/1. All this to build a result on who I think, barring injuries, the real winners will be (the Crusaders of course). Backing potential semifinalists at over 15/1 is only a play to lay them later on if and when their price shortens.

I've already had a look at Week 3 matches and am keen on one in particular. Come back on Friday to see which one.

Super 14 Week 2

OK, here's what I think for the weekend (with current Betfair prices available to back):

HIGHLANDERS ($2.42) v BLUES ($1.72)

The match of the round first up. Two top 4 contenders coming off an opening round loss, and a second one puts them under real pressure to get there, even at this early stage. Both teams were reasonably impressive in defeat last week, although I feel with Chris Smylie out due to injury the Highlanders lose something. They definitely were a better side last week when he was on the park. I can't see past a Blues win (that's my head talking, not my heart), but obviously not by much, so betting-wise it's one to leave alone.

CATS ($2.70) v CHIEFS ($1.65)

I didn't see the Cats play last week (and apparently I didn't miss much), but I did watch the Chiefs fumble and bumble to a loss. I might be wrong about the Chiefs - it wasn't their mistakes that concerned me - it was the lack of dominance by their tight 5 which was their achilles heel going into the season. If they can't get dominance over average opposition then you do start to get concerned about how they will fare against the better packs in the comp. Luckily for them, they face another average side this weekend, and any improvement in the forward pack should see them win. But if not, another struggle. At the prices, no bet.

BULLS ($1.57) v BRUMBIES ($2.86)

The Bulls v Cheetahs match last weekend was the best of the round - the first half had the intensity of a test match and both sides I feel played well. You would think the Bulls at home should be too strong but I have this nagging feeling the Brumbies are not the spent force everyone is making them out to be. Of course I might be the one wrong, and this match should go someway towards proving it one way or the other. But at the prices, I feel a small wager on the Brumbies is in order. I do think the Bulls should win, but I want some money if my gut feel on ACT turns out to be correct.

HURRICANES ($1.07) v FORCE ($12)

The prices tell the story. But you don't get rich backing $1.07 shots. I'm reminded of the Crusaders-Cats game last year where everyone thought you'd put your house on the Cantabs at $1.03 and get 3% on your money in 80 minutes. The Crusaders sneaked a won 41-38. One to leave alone.

REDS ($5.60) v CRUSADERS ($.1.21)

The Reds played well last week but they always fire up against the Waratahs. So are they a better team this year or will they prove once again they are in contention for the wooden spoon? I suggest the latter - leave this game alone as well.

SHARKS ($1.68) v CHEETAHS ($2.52)

The Cheetahs owe me after last weekend. A missed conversion 3 min from the end to tie the scores (on Betfair I lay teams rather than back them to cover my arse in case of a draw) cost me bigtime. The Sharks (as their name suggests) fed off the mistakes of their opposition last week - if the Cheetahs play anywhere near the level they did last week they should be too strong. I can't believe the prices. I'm in again.

STORMERS ($2.30) v WARATAHS ($1.79)

Didn't see the Stormers play last weekend, so I don't feel comfortable playing this match. At face value, if the Tahs are finals contenders they need to win matches such as these but I'll be watching without any financial interest.

So the lazy $100 this week goes:

$75 on the Cheetahs to beat the Sharks @ $2.52
$25 on the Brumbies to beat the Bulls @ $2.86

MEDIA RANT #2

I've had enough. I bought a paper today (I know, I know, I shouldn't have but I get Thursday's paper for the TV guide) and first up my eyes get drawn to the sports briefings where I learn that NZ have to travel to Kazakhstan to play their semi-final Asia/Oceania Group 2 Davis Cup tie in April.

Whoop-de-farkin-do. This comes after yesterday's effort where in the same briefings I'm hugely impressed to find out that Mark Nielsen LOST his first-round match at the Sydney Futures event. The last paper that I bought before yesterday was last Friday where, wading through the Super 14 previews I had to sidestep a quarter-page article on NZ's chances in its first-round tie against that tennis sporting powerhouse, Lebanon. I'm glad I skipped Monday's paper where I presume there was massive coverage of our tremedous victory (I assume we won because we're now going to Kazakhstan).

Does anyone out there actually give a toss at all this? New Zealand sucks at tennis. Badly. Winning a regional Group 2 tie (that's one level down from Group 1, which is one level down from the World Group, so it's the equivalent of English Division 2 soccer, which unfortunately also gets a bit of press because of the 3 NZ players playing it) is not news. Mark Nielsen, in case anybody has not heard of him, is NZ's highest-ranked player at number 300 in the world. Him losing a first-round futures event (which is one level down from Challenger events, which is one level down from the "real" events) is not news.

Now Maria Sharapove losing her virginity to A-Rod would be news. And some pictures would be nice too. And this is the problem. Tennis, being one of the few truly global sports, gets coverage here because of it, but for some reason, the media here thinks that translates to interest by our public into how our NZ tennis players are doing.

Well it doesn't. NZ is a proud sporting nation that generally puches above it's weight. But not in tennis. Definitely not in tennis. And, like any good family, we want to keep our skeletons in the closet and not be reminded of how shit we are at this global game. SO STOP FRIGGIN' PUTTING "NEWS" OF OUR TENNIS PLAYERS AND RESULTS IN THE PAPER.

Yes I am pissed off because there are many other sports out there, Orienteering included, where NZ doesn't do so bad and gets fuck-all coverage. And why don't we get coverage? Because the papers tell us there's not enough room to put all the sports news in. No friggin' surprise when it's full of crap about crap New Zealand tennis players.

Yawn

Australia win another ODI cricket series. Yawn.

To be fair, they played some good cricket towards the end and any team that can get 360+ after being 3 wickets down for 10 like they were on Sunday deserves some respect and admiration. I've got a little burnt trying to get them beat in the last 2 games but have ended on the right side overall and has helped push the Sydney test near the back of the mind. I would like to get rid of this red figure in my P/L column though - I have a wedding to pay for!!!

The West Indies have arrived and kick off with a hit and giggle (i.e. a 20/20) tomorrow night - will be watching, but not betting. I can't get too enthused about this - I expect NZ to dominate the ODI's and will be at too short prices, but there may be value later on in the tests where I think WI will be more competitive than people are expecting.

I'll update Super 14 on Fridays - I watched most of the games last weekend and there was a hell of a lot of rust on display, so not much can be read into them. Despite their loss, I was impressed with the Blues - their first half against the Canes was superb and they lost the match in the second half thanks to a forward pass, then Nonu running past Devine who was still in Disneyland after smacking his head on the turf. The Bulls also impressed me; the first half of their game against the Cheetahs was trench warfare which despite missing some of their leaders they weathered and left the Cheetahs resorting to an unnatural kicking game which was not going to win them the match. They won the Currie Cup throwing the ball around, yet here decided to play forceback in the second half, and came second. Don't understand the tactics, but the Cheetahs showed enough that they will probably be the second-best SAF side in the comp and no easy-beats. And the Crusaders? Yawn.

Another jackpot on offer at Hong Kong tonight so back to the videos I go. Check here on Friday for the weekend rugby tips.

Weekend Bets

Gawd, VB Finals, Super14, 6 Nations ... where to start?

First the cricket. I'll watch tonight, but won't be doing much, unless SL win the toss and get off to a rollicking start. Actually I'm hoping they'll get pummelled as I think they stand a much better chance of pinching the second game in Sydney on Sunday, which is where I will be betting.

6 Nations - I haven't had the time to follow this; but from a distance wonder why the Scots are at 3.0+ to beat the Welsh. It may be worth a small wager.

Super14 - right, I've done my thinking, am all set and here goes (prices are at Betfair):

Blues ($1.66) v Hurricanes ($2.66) - Blues deserves to be favourites, but only slightly so. At the prices, have a lash on the Canes.
Cheetahs ($2.96) v Bulls ($1.56) - let me get this right. The Cheetahs beat the Bulls in the Currie Cup final last year, the Bulls have injuries, and they are playing in Blomfoentein, not Pretoria. And the Cheetahs are 2/1 ??? This is the bet of the weekend.
Force ($3.35) v Brumbies ($1.44) - typical; when I buck the trend and do not think the Brumbies are a spent force (no pun intended), half the team go and get sick tummies. The gods are really lining up this to be a dream start for the Perth team. I just can't see it - I may be proven wrong, but I'm not putting money on this game.
Crusaders ($1.24) v Highlanders ($5.3) - a win by the Cantabs is likely, but the Highlanders do not deserve to be 4/1 - a small sneaky wager on the Otago boys with the expectation that it is money probably down the drain is in order.
Cats ($1.93) v Stormers ($2.14) - who knows? No bet for me.
Reds ($3.05) v Waratahs ($1.45) - prices seem about right, so no bet.
Sharks ($2.34 v Chiefs ($1.76) - again, the prices seem fair, so no bet.

So here's what to do with a lazy hundred:

$60 on Cheetahs to beat the Bulls at $2.96
$30 on Hurricanes to beat the Blues at $2.66
$10 on Highlanders to beat the Crusaders at $5.30

The Silly Season (Super 14)

One of the southern hemisphere's premier rugby (a winter sport) competitions kicks off this weekend, before New Zealand's cricketers have had a chance to host their international visitors. And people think Orienteering has a problem with seasons.

Rugby in the second week of February is madness. But hey, it's an opportunity to make a punting dollar, so I'm not complaining. I'm halfway through my research and thinking on this, and I think there will be some turn-ups in this competition, starting on Day 1.

With the expanded competition, I've been looking more at the depth in the playing rosters. The competition will be won not so much by numbers 1-25, but 16-28. Two more games, starting earlier in the year = more probability of injuries. With both Oz and SAF having one more team, their resources are more spread, so logic dictates that NZ teams, reasonably dominant in the Super 12, will be even more so this year. While NZ does have an issue with players farking off in search of the yen and the pound, the player drain this past year is no different to previous year's, so I don't think it's an issue.

So I do believe the winner will come from NZ. It's also possible all 4 semifinalists will be NZ teams, although there are a couple of Oz/SAF sides who have the potential to get there. First let's get rid of the deadwood:

If the Sharks, Cats and Reds get anywhere near the top of the table, I won't be the only one eating humble pie. I almost throw the Western Force in this category, as I have question marks over their playing depth and the effect of travel. But I'll give them the benefit of doubt until I've seen them play a couple of games.

I need to get more up-to-date on the Stormers and the Cheetahs, but my gut feel is they'll do well to get above mid-table as well. So before a game kicks off, I think we're down to 8 contenders, the 5 Kiwi teams, plus the Bulls, Brumbies and Waratahs.

What I look at is the playing roster and draw. IMO the draw gives some teams an advantage - some have one more home game, some get an "easy" game when they return from the "away" leg (e.g. NZ teams returning from SAF and vice-versa), some get softer away games than others(e.g. NZ teams playing the Cats and Sharks in SAF, rather than the Bulls). So with this in mind:

BLUES

6 home 7 away. Away to Crusaders and Waratahs. The easier teams when in SAF, but 3 weeks there (Cats, Sharks, Cheetahs). A potentially tricky home game at the end v Chiefs when they return. Not the kindest of draws, but not the worst either.

There are a lot expecting a Blues revival this year; they have the potential but I'm not so sure they'll deliver. Semifinalists probably, winners unlikely IMO. The first-up game against the Canes should be a cracker (they usually are) and will shape the season for both teams. Crunch time for the Blues: weeks 4-7 - Crusaders away, Brumbies home (after a bye) and Waratahs away. They needs 2 wins out of 3.

CHIEFS

7 home, 6 away - start with the SAF leg (Sharks, Cats and Force away), an "easy" home game when they return (Reds) and they could be 4-0 when they play the Crusaders at home in Week 5. They have one of the better draws of the comp and if they can't reach the semis this year, then they never will. I'm having a punt on them at the start.

HURRICANES

Thought this might be their year this year but the draw does them no favours. 6 home, 7 away - they get the hard SAF teams away and also have to go to Canberra and Sydney. They need a win at Auckland on Friday (and they are capable) to have a shot this year.

CRUSADERS

7 home, 6 away - Blues, Waratahs, Brumbies at home. Reasonably kind draw - am hoping this is the year they come back to the pack but it might not be. No 1 or 2 after the regular season and we all know what they can do from there. Yawn.

HIGHLANDERS

6 home, 7 away - great start to the year (NOT): Crusaders away, Blues home, then off to SAF v Cheetahs, Stormers and Bulls. Always an underrated team, but this year I think they are up against it. Need to get a win in either of the first 2 matches, and that won't be easy.

WARATAHS

6 home, 7 away - grudge match first up (Reds) followed by the harder SAF leg (Stormers/Bulls - although see the Bulls below), soft mid season before facing all the NZ teams and Brumbies at the end. The Waratahs have but one problem (well, two): numbers 1 and 3 - having the Oz props in your side is nothing to boast about. Scrum will be their achilles heel and all teams will be targeting it. If it wasn't for that, I'd put money on them to make the final again, but I'm taking a risk and will be going against them at some point in the season.

BRUMBIES

I was prepared to write them off, but remembered they had a horror run with injuries last year and while they have lost a few players to the Force, they are not in too bad shape. Backline: Gregan, Larkham, Giteau, Mortlock, Rathbone - hell, it looks good on paper even if a couple of them are short on match fitness. Draw - 7 home, 6 away but start with the Force/Stormers/Bulls away. Have the Blues, Waratahs and Crusaders away. So it's not a kind draw, but 2 wins out of 3 on their away leg at the beginning with no injuries and I'll be backing them.

BULLS

A kind draw offset by injuries. Currie Cup final rematch first up and then home v Brumbies and Waratahs weeks 2 and 3 without Matfield and Co - get wins there and they are well on their way.

So semifinalists (estimated probability of reaching the top 4 and assuming the other 6 teams have no chance):

Blues 55%
Chiefs 60%
Hurricanes 40%
Crusaders 80%
Highlanders 20%
Brumbies 50%
Waratahs 45%
Bulls 50%

So at the moment (with the caveat I've still got some more work to do) I think the Chiefs and Brumbies (and maybe the Bulls) are worth a punt at some point, and it's worth risking at the prices the Waratahs and Blues. But it's all academic. The winners will probably be wearing red and black again. Yawn.

A crap few days

February already ... great.

Goodbye and good riddance to January - my second worst month ever punting. A nice end (not) by getting too cute on the ODI last night - had backed Sri Lanka at the off, watched them get to 140/1 after about 23 overs, and normally I'd back South Africa at this point and lock in a guaranteed profit no matter the result. But oh no, I decide for once to let the bet ride and watch as they get bowled out for 222 and the Saffers win in a canter.

I was distracted by Hong Kong races at the same time - for those who aren't quite aware, my other line of income is by rating HK horse races for a syndicate who bet on an exotic bet over there called the Triple Trio(TT). What that involves is picking the first three horses (any order) in three races - harder than it seems. Last night was the Chinese New Year meeting and the TT had a 20 million (HKD) jackpot. Even if the HK dollar is worth about 0.2 NZD, it's still worth chasing. HK races are broadcast on NZ TV now, so I could watch the syndicate's money go down the gurgler as a 38/1 shot won the second leg with an 88/1 shot coming second. Everybody else's money went down as well, meaning there's a 48 million starting pool in the weekend and another couple of days watching videos for me coming up.

At times it's like having two jobs, and if I count the list of Orienteering things to do more like three. At times they conflict, like a couple of days ago when preoccupied with rating races I forgot about the start of the third Pakistan-India cricket test. I had intended to go against the draw, and remembered around start time, so got up Cricinfo to find Pakistan 0-3 (that's 0 runs and 3 wickets) after 1 over. It's at times like this the cat is in severe danger of a good kicking, but after a couple of choice F words I settle down and remind myself while it is an opportunity lost, in punting land there are always more opportunities around the corner.

So it hasn't been a great few days, or month for that matter. But I think to be a reasonable punter you have to remain optimistic and have faith - that may come as a surprise to some acquantainces who find me a sad, cynical bastard - and I've been through other rough patches and come through them. The day where the negative thoughts outweigh the positive ones is the day you should consider giving up, or at least taking a break.

So roll on February. West Indies here in NZ (they'll get thrashed), Six Nations rugby (allez les blues) and Super 14 (the Canes all the way) is all coming up. Can't wait, as it gives me a chance to get rid of that red figure that is currently occupying my P/L column.