Typical,
The day I decide to leave a cricket game alone is the day it would, in hindsight, have been great to trade. I had a feeling during the innings break of yesterday's ODI that the Windies total of 200 might be competitive, but certainly didn't expect NZ to fold like a pack of cards early on ... 1 or 2 early wickets maybe, but 4? Bugger, another opportunity lost, and unfortunately with NZ getting out of jail it makes a 5-0 win more likely IMO. Possibly 4-1, and I will continue to wait for Bravo to get back in the side before having a bet.
With Australia in South Africa and England in India I should be getting back to my bread and butter (cricket) but need to get this weekend's Super 14 out of the way. So here goes (prices available to back at Betfair):
HURRICANES ($1.08) v CATS ($12)
Despite their win last week, the Cats are my favourites for the wooden spoon. Next.
FORCE ($2.92) v CHIEFS ($1.53)
Well, the Chiefs have been my disappointment of the Super 14 so far, whereas the Force have played reasonably well against tough opposition. Let's dissect the Force - a loss to the Brumbies but they were in the game with 20 to go, and a loss to the Hurricanes by 24, with 14 of those coming in the first 6 minutes. I thought their second-half effort against the Canes was fair, to say the least, esp. in the possession stakes. The Force are not helped by injuries, they have a few and are one of the sides who can ill-afford to have their fair share. But, the Force are not easybeats - they are starting to remind me a lot of the Breakers (NZ basketball franchise now into their third season in the Aussie league), a competitive team who when they first started out ended up losing most of their games but were not as bad as their record suggested.
Now turning to the Chiefs. Jonno (Gibbes) is back - thank the lord. And they are capable of improvement (the understatement of the century). But the big IF is whether this weekend will see the start of the turnaround.
I feel on the balance of probabilities the Chiefs will win, but no way do the Force deserve to be 2/1 shots. The price is too tempting, and I'll have a small wager on the Perth lads.
STORMERS ($2.52) v BRUMBIES ($1.68)
An intriguing match. Watched the Stormers for the first time last weekend and they went OK - the press after the game put the competitiveness of the match down to the Tahs being a bit off their game - but how much do you assign that to the opposition and how much is due to their own frailties? The Stormers and Cheetahs I lump in the same boat - a midtable side who will cause the supposedly top teams a reasonable amount of angst, esp. at home. The Brumbies have 1 liability (Bill Young) and 2 novices in the front row, but apart from that are solid, with Radike Samo coming back this week. So I expect a similar game to last week, an Aussie win but not without problems. At the prices, it's a no-bet but only just, I might try and get $2.60 for the Stormers which I would be happy to take.
CRUSADERS ($1.07) v SHARKS ($13.50)
Next.
REDS ($2.20) v BLUES ($1.83)
The prices are deflating, I expected the Blues to be shorter and this was to be my bet for the weekend. Obviously I am not the only one who is impressed with the Reds' effort so far which has been against the two finalists from last year. The Reds have been a bit of a bogeyteam for the Blues, not that history counts for much, but I do recall watching the Blues struggle to an 18-15 win last year at Eden Park in this match-up. Two years ago they lost in Brisbane.
Murphy's Law dictates the day I back the over-performing wooden spoon contenders against the under-performing semifinal aspirants, is the day form will revert back to it's true course (a bit like the Force v Chiefs game really). But at least with the Force I'm getting near to 2/1. At $2.20 I can't back the Reds with confidence, and I certainly can't back the Blues given the way they have been playing. So reluctantly it's a no-bet.
BULLS ($1.91) v WARATAHS ($2.06)
Match of the weekend - definitely getting up early on Sunday to watch this. A tough one to call, you would think the Bulls won't lose two in a row at Fortress Loftus, but with Major Matfield still out they are a touch vulnerable. One to watch and enjoy without spending any pennies, unless the prices change (Bulls are currently shortening) and the Tahs get to evens, where I'd be happy to go against them.
CHEETAHS ($2.22) v HIGHLANDERS ($1.83)
Another intriguing match - similar to the Stormers/Brumbies with a midtable-type side at home to a team that is perhaps a bit better. So will home grass even up the contest or perhaps sway it in favour of the Saffers? Hard to call, if I had to get off the fence it would be on the side of the Highlanders, so it's a no-bet.
In summary, not a great weekend punting-wise but I have to come up with $100 of bets for the NZ Junior Orienteering team. Each week I spend $100 on their behalf and they get to keep the winnings. So far I'm pleased to report that $200 has been turned into $340. I'm going to try and get $2.60 for the Stormers and $2.00 for the Bulls, as well as putting some on the Force, and if I can't get the prices I want I'll have to think of Plan B (which will NOT be $100 on the Force - the price is good but not that good). So I need another day mulling and will have the bets up in 24 hours time.
With Australia in South Africa and England in India I should be getting back to my bread and butter (cricket) but need to get this weekend's Super 14 out of the way. So here goes (prices available to back at Betfair):
HURRICANES ($1.08) v CATS ($12)
Despite their win last week, the Cats are my favourites for the wooden spoon. Next.
FORCE ($2.92) v CHIEFS ($1.53)
Well, the Chiefs have been my disappointment of the Super 14 so far, whereas the Force have played reasonably well against tough opposition. Let's dissect the Force - a loss to the Brumbies but they were in the game with 20 to go, and a loss to the Hurricanes by 24, with 14 of those coming in the first 6 minutes. I thought their second-half effort against the Canes was fair, to say the least, esp. in the possession stakes. The Force are not helped by injuries, they have a few and are one of the sides who can ill-afford to have their fair share. But, the Force are not easybeats - they are starting to remind me a lot of the Breakers (NZ basketball franchise now into their third season in the Aussie league), a competitive team who when they first started out ended up losing most of their games but were not as bad as their record suggested.
Now turning to the Chiefs. Jonno (Gibbes) is back - thank the lord. And they are capable of improvement (the understatement of the century). But the big IF is whether this weekend will see the start of the turnaround.
I feel on the balance of probabilities the Chiefs will win, but no way do the Force deserve to be 2/1 shots. The price is too tempting, and I'll have a small wager on the Perth lads.
STORMERS ($2.52) v BRUMBIES ($1.68)
An intriguing match. Watched the Stormers for the first time last weekend and they went OK - the press after the game put the competitiveness of the match down to the Tahs being a bit off their game - but how much do you assign that to the opposition and how much is due to their own frailties? The Stormers and Cheetahs I lump in the same boat - a midtable side who will cause the supposedly top teams a reasonable amount of angst, esp. at home. The Brumbies have 1 liability (Bill Young) and 2 novices in the front row, but apart from that are solid, with Radike Samo coming back this week. So I expect a similar game to last week, an Aussie win but not without problems. At the prices, it's a no-bet but only just, I might try and get $2.60 for the Stormers which I would be happy to take.
CRUSADERS ($1.07) v SHARKS ($13.50)
Next.
REDS ($2.20) v BLUES ($1.83)
The prices are deflating, I expected the Blues to be shorter and this was to be my bet for the weekend. Obviously I am not the only one who is impressed with the Reds' effort so far which has been against the two finalists from last year. The Reds have been a bit of a bogeyteam for the Blues, not that history counts for much, but I do recall watching the Blues struggle to an 18-15 win last year at Eden Park in this match-up. Two years ago they lost in Brisbane.
Murphy's Law dictates the day I back the over-performing wooden spoon contenders against the under-performing semifinal aspirants, is the day form will revert back to it's true course (a bit like the Force v Chiefs game really). But at least with the Force I'm getting near to 2/1. At $2.20 I can't back the Reds with confidence, and I certainly can't back the Blues given the way they have been playing. So reluctantly it's a no-bet.
BULLS ($1.91) v WARATAHS ($2.06)
Match of the weekend - definitely getting up early on Sunday to watch this. A tough one to call, you would think the Bulls won't lose two in a row at Fortress Loftus, but with Major Matfield still out they are a touch vulnerable. One to watch and enjoy without spending any pennies, unless the prices change (Bulls are currently shortening) and the Tahs get to evens, where I'd be happy to go against them.
CHEETAHS ($2.22) v HIGHLANDERS ($1.83)
Another intriguing match - similar to the Stormers/Brumbies with a midtable-type side at home to a team that is perhaps a bit better. So will home grass even up the contest or perhaps sway it in favour of the Saffers? Hard to call, if I had to get off the fence it would be on the side of the Highlanders, so it's a no-bet.
In summary, not a great weekend punting-wise but I have to come up with $100 of bets for the NZ Junior Orienteering team. Each week I spend $100 on their behalf and they get to keep the winnings. So far I'm pleased to report that $200 has been turned into $340. I'm going to try and get $2.60 for the Stormers and $2.00 for the Bulls, as well as putting some on the Force, and if I can't get the prices I want I'll have to think of Plan B (which will NOT be $100 on the Force - the price is good but not that good). So I need another day mulling and will have the bets up in 24 hours time.
posted by Rob Crawford at 5:35 PM
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