Super 14 Week 2

OK, here's what I think for the weekend (with current Betfair prices available to back):

HIGHLANDERS ($2.42) v BLUES ($1.72)

The match of the round first up. Two top 4 contenders coming off an opening round loss, and a second one puts them under real pressure to get there, even at this early stage. Both teams were reasonably impressive in defeat last week, although I feel with Chris Smylie out due to injury the Highlanders lose something. They definitely were a better side last week when he was on the park. I can't see past a Blues win (that's my head talking, not my heart), but obviously not by much, so betting-wise it's one to leave alone.

CATS ($2.70) v CHIEFS ($1.65)

I didn't see the Cats play last week (and apparently I didn't miss much), but I did watch the Chiefs fumble and bumble to a loss. I might be wrong about the Chiefs - it wasn't their mistakes that concerned me - it was the lack of dominance by their tight 5 which was their achilles heel going into the season. If they can't get dominance over average opposition then you do start to get concerned about how they will fare against the better packs in the comp. Luckily for them, they face another average side this weekend, and any improvement in the forward pack should see them win. But if not, another struggle. At the prices, no bet.

BULLS ($1.57) v BRUMBIES ($2.86)

The Bulls v Cheetahs match last weekend was the best of the round - the first half had the intensity of a test match and both sides I feel played well. You would think the Bulls at home should be too strong but I have this nagging feeling the Brumbies are not the spent force everyone is making them out to be. Of course I might be the one wrong, and this match should go someway towards proving it one way or the other. But at the prices, I feel a small wager on the Brumbies is in order. I do think the Bulls should win, but I want some money if my gut feel on ACT turns out to be correct.

HURRICANES ($1.07) v FORCE ($12)

The prices tell the story. But you don't get rich backing $1.07 shots. I'm reminded of the Crusaders-Cats game last year where everyone thought you'd put your house on the Cantabs at $1.03 and get 3% on your money in 80 minutes. The Crusaders sneaked a won 41-38. One to leave alone.

REDS ($5.60) v CRUSADERS ($.1.21)

The Reds played well last week but they always fire up against the Waratahs. So are they a better team this year or will they prove once again they are in contention for the wooden spoon? I suggest the latter - leave this game alone as well.

SHARKS ($1.68) v CHEETAHS ($2.52)

The Cheetahs owe me after last weekend. A missed conversion 3 min from the end to tie the scores (on Betfair I lay teams rather than back them to cover my arse in case of a draw) cost me bigtime. The Sharks (as their name suggests) fed off the mistakes of their opposition last week - if the Cheetahs play anywhere near the level they did last week they should be too strong. I can't believe the prices. I'm in again.

STORMERS ($2.30) v WARATAHS ($1.79)

Didn't see the Stormers play last weekend, so I don't feel comfortable playing this match. At face value, if the Tahs are finals contenders they need to win matches such as these but I'll be watching without any financial interest.

So the lazy $100 this week goes:

$75 on the Cheetahs to beat the Sharks @ $2.52
$25 on the Brumbies to beat the Bulls @ $2.86