Weekend Wrap
One of the key disciplines in punting is just that - discipline. Easy to know, harder to practice consistently 100% of the time. So after telling myself the ODI series between NZ and the West Indies is likely to be a no contest, I get seduced by the prices on offer and I can't resist going against NZ at 1.24. Money down the drain. I'm not even going to turn on the TV on Wednesday for the next one, but feel WI could possibly pinch one later on, when they get Dwayne Bravo back.
Still, thanks to the Super 14, I've ended the weekend slightly ahead. Even Blind Freddy could have made money on the weekend's rugby, with 4 "outsiders" getting up in the 7 matches played. I'm sure some people would look at me funny if I told them I backed the Brumbies, but you make money in this game sometimes by taking the opposing view. Strangely, despite the win I think the Brumbies are going to run into problems - they now have their No.1 and 2 hookers out for the season and it's not one of the positions you want your depth tested.
Injuries. They are certainly going to play a huge part in this competition. It's why you cannot say 14 weeks out that so-and-so are going to win the comp. It's also a reason to play the winner's market, even if it does tie up your money for 3 months. So far, I'm happy to have laid the Blues and backed the Brumbies before the start, still OK about laying the Waratahs, but have already written off the 100 quid I put on the Chiefs. They can still turn it around but I won't hold my breath. At the moment, I'm trying to get a piece of the Bulls (having drifted after their loss) and I plan to lay the Hurricanes once they wipe the floor with the Cats next weekend, if I can do so around 4/1. All this to build a result on who I think, barring injuries, the real winners will be (the Crusaders of course). Backing potential semifinalists at over 15/1 is only a play to lay them later on if and when their price shortens.
I've already had a look at Week 3 matches and am keen on one in particular. Come back on Friday to see which one.
Still, thanks to the Super 14, I've ended the weekend slightly ahead. Even Blind Freddy could have made money on the weekend's rugby, with 4 "outsiders" getting up in the 7 matches played. I'm sure some people would look at me funny if I told them I backed the Brumbies, but you make money in this game sometimes by taking the opposing view. Strangely, despite the win I think the Brumbies are going to run into problems - they now have their No.1 and 2 hookers out for the season and it's not one of the positions you want your depth tested.
Injuries. They are certainly going to play a huge part in this competition. It's why you cannot say 14 weeks out that so-and-so are going to win the comp. It's also a reason to play the winner's market, even if it does tie up your money for 3 months. So far, I'm happy to have laid the Blues and backed the Brumbies before the start, still OK about laying the Waratahs, but have already written off the 100 quid I put on the Chiefs. They can still turn it around but I won't hold my breath. At the moment, I'm trying to get a piece of the Bulls (having drifted after their loss) and I plan to lay the Hurricanes once they wipe the floor with the Cats next weekend, if I can do so around 4/1. All this to build a result on who I think, barring injuries, the real winners will be (the Crusaders of course). Backing potential semifinalists at over 15/1 is only a play to lay them later on if and when their price shortens.
I've already had a look at Week 3 matches and am keen on one in particular. Come back on Friday to see which one.
posted by Rob Crawford at 1:02 PM
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