The Silly Season (Super 14)

One of the southern hemisphere's premier rugby (a winter sport) competitions kicks off this weekend, before New Zealand's cricketers have had a chance to host their international visitors. And people think Orienteering has a problem with seasons.

Rugby in the second week of February is madness. But hey, it's an opportunity to make a punting dollar, so I'm not complaining. I'm halfway through my research and thinking on this, and I think there will be some turn-ups in this competition, starting on Day 1.

With the expanded competition, I've been looking more at the depth in the playing rosters. The competition will be won not so much by numbers 1-25, but 16-28. Two more games, starting earlier in the year = more probability of injuries. With both Oz and SAF having one more team, their resources are more spread, so logic dictates that NZ teams, reasonably dominant in the Super 12, will be even more so this year. While NZ does have an issue with players farking off in search of the yen and the pound, the player drain this past year is no different to previous year's, so I don't think it's an issue.

So I do believe the winner will come from NZ. It's also possible all 4 semifinalists will be NZ teams, although there are a couple of Oz/SAF sides who have the potential to get there. First let's get rid of the deadwood:

If the Sharks, Cats and Reds get anywhere near the top of the table, I won't be the only one eating humble pie. I almost throw the Western Force in this category, as I have question marks over their playing depth and the effect of travel. But I'll give them the benefit of doubt until I've seen them play a couple of games.

I need to get more up-to-date on the Stormers and the Cheetahs, but my gut feel is they'll do well to get above mid-table as well. So before a game kicks off, I think we're down to 8 contenders, the 5 Kiwi teams, plus the Bulls, Brumbies and Waratahs.

What I look at is the playing roster and draw. IMO the draw gives some teams an advantage - some have one more home game, some get an "easy" game when they return from the "away" leg (e.g. NZ teams returning from SAF and vice-versa), some get softer away games than others(e.g. NZ teams playing the Cats and Sharks in SAF, rather than the Bulls). So with this in mind:

BLUES

6 home 7 away. Away to Crusaders and Waratahs. The easier teams when in SAF, but 3 weeks there (Cats, Sharks, Cheetahs). A potentially tricky home game at the end v Chiefs when they return. Not the kindest of draws, but not the worst either.

There are a lot expecting a Blues revival this year; they have the potential but I'm not so sure they'll deliver. Semifinalists probably, winners unlikely IMO. The first-up game against the Canes should be a cracker (they usually are) and will shape the season for both teams. Crunch time for the Blues: weeks 4-7 - Crusaders away, Brumbies home (after a bye) and Waratahs away. They needs 2 wins out of 3.

CHIEFS

7 home, 6 away - start with the SAF leg (Sharks, Cats and Force away), an "easy" home game when they return (Reds) and they could be 4-0 when they play the Crusaders at home in Week 5. They have one of the better draws of the comp and if they can't reach the semis this year, then they never will. I'm having a punt on them at the start.

HURRICANES

Thought this might be their year this year but the draw does them no favours. 6 home, 7 away - they get the hard SAF teams away and also have to go to Canberra and Sydney. They need a win at Auckland on Friday (and they are capable) to have a shot this year.

CRUSADERS

7 home, 6 away - Blues, Waratahs, Brumbies at home. Reasonably kind draw - am hoping this is the year they come back to the pack but it might not be. No 1 or 2 after the regular season and we all know what they can do from there. Yawn.

HIGHLANDERS

6 home, 7 away - great start to the year (NOT): Crusaders away, Blues home, then off to SAF v Cheetahs, Stormers and Bulls. Always an underrated team, but this year I think they are up against it. Need to get a win in either of the first 2 matches, and that won't be easy.

WARATAHS

6 home, 7 away - grudge match first up (Reds) followed by the harder SAF leg (Stormers/Bulls - although see the Bulls below), soft mid season before facing all the NZ teams and Brumbies at the end. The Waratahs have but one problem (well, two): numbers 1 and 3 - having the Oz props in your side is nothing to boast about. Scrum will be their achilles heel and all teams will be targeting it. If it wasn't for that, I'd put money on them to make the final again, but I'm taking a risk and will be going against them at some point in the season.

BRUMBIES

I was prepared to write them off, but remembered they had a horror run with injuries last year and while they have lost a few players to the Force, they are not in too bad shape. Backline: Gregan, Larkham, Giteau, Mortlock, Rathbone - hell, it looks good on paper even if a couple of them are short on match fitness. Draw - 7 home, 6 away but start with the Force/Stormers/Bulls away. Have the Blues, Waratahs and Crusaders away. So it's not a kind draw, but 2 wins out of 3 on their away leg at the beginning with no injuries and I'll be backing them.

BULLS

A kind draw offset by injuries. Currie Cup final rematch first up and then home v Brumbies and Waratahs weeks 2 and 3 without Matfield and Co - get wins there and they are well on their way.

So semifinalists (estimated probability of reaching the top 4 and assuming the other 6 teams have no chance):

Blues 55%
Chiefs 60%
Hurricanes 40%
Crusaders 80%
Highlanders 20%
Brumbies 50%
Waratahs 45%
Bulls 50%

So at the moment (with the caveat I've still got some more work to do) I think the Chiefs and Brumbies (and maybe the Bulls) are worth a punt at some point, and it's worth risking at the prices the Waratahs and Blues. But it's all academic. The winners will probably be wearing red and black again. Yawn.